Fairfax 2024

[Mystery Guest]

2 hours ago, Kizion said:

 

Do I oversimplify by concluding that you just look at P/E ratio (and it's potential to evolve positively)? 

yes and NO ... it's a good starting screen... you could do ok buying the dogs of the index.

'you don't have to put a man on the scales to know he's fat' 

 

you are looking for a good business that has consistent high earnings ... you are looking to buy these earnings at a low price, the lower your cost basis the more explosive the long term compounding. 

 

you can simplify Fairfax based on their own objective:

 OBJECTIVES: 1) We expect to compound our mark-to-market book value per share over the long term by 15% annually by running Fairfax and its subsidiaries for the long term benefit of customers, employees, shareholders and the communities where we operate – at the expense of short term profits if necessary.

 

If you accept that they will meet this objective in some way or other over a long period.

 

your goal would to be buy shares at or under book value baking that return into your portfolio.

 

if you buy your shares at .75 of book ... you are theoretically capturing a 20% return on your 

investment...   

 

...and hang on as long as that objective continues to be met in a reasonable manner

 

 

Edited August 6 by Mystery Guest

[Hoodlum]

It is interesting that BRK is back to Thurs closing level, while Fairfax is still down 5% from then.  Not sure why the gap is increasing.

Edited August 7 by Hoodlum

[SafetyinNumbers]

3 minutes ago, Hoodlum said:

It is interesting that BRK is back to Thurs closing level, while Fairfax is still down 5% from then.  Not sure why the gap is increasing.

BRK has better shareholders 

[MMM20]

14 minutes ago, Hoodlum said:

It is interesting that BRK is back to Thurs closing level, while Fairfax is still down 5% from then.  Not sure why the gap is increasing.

It’s statistical noise - but also isn’t Fairfax still restricted in buying back stock until today or tomorrow?

[SafetyinNumbers]

14 minutes ago, MMM20 said:

It’s statistical noise - but also isn’t Fairfax still restricted in buying back stock until today or tomorrow?

No, they have an automated plan and are maxed out at ~8200 shares a day unless they use the weekly block exemption. Most institutions have to sell as a % of volume so it’s hard for the block exemption to be used.

[Hektor]

46 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

BRK has better shareholders 

[Junior R]

Plus fairfax does have muddywaters lol

[Junior R]

crazy drop lol

[UK]

2 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

BRK has better shareholders 

 

But it seems this dip is only FFH related, because I do not see many insurance stocks in the red. Perhaps it is just some kind of noise.

[backtothebeach]

U.S. bond yields are down quite a bit since the end of Q2. Does anyone have a quick estimate of the effect on Fairfax' bond portfolio and book value?

 

Treasury yields:

Date	06/28/2024	08/06/2024
1 Mo	5.47	5.50
2 Mo	5.47	5.43
3 Mo	5.48	5.34
4 Mo	5.45	5.18
6 Mo	5.33	5.00
1 Yr	5.09	4.46
2 Yr	4.71	3.99
3 Yr	4.52	3.76
5 Yr	4.33	3.73
7 Yr	4.33	3.79
10 Yr	4.36	3.90
20 Yr	4.61	4.28
30 Yr	4.51	4.18

[hardcorevalue]

Good short term but pretty bad long term if we are headed lower on rates.

They probably should have locked in for a bit longer in hindsight

[MMM20]

37 minutes ago, hardcorevalue said:

Good short term but pretty bad long term if we are headed lower on rates.

Isn’t that only true if credit (and equity) spreads widen out? Unless it also gets cheaper for new supply to come on and soften insurance, the fair multiple (discount rate) for FFH might go much higher (lower)! It’s a long duration business even if not priced like it!

 

Edited August 7 by MMM20

[hardcorevalue]

I think there were a lot of people that were long Fairfax for higher rates. That trade is dead now and then you have Prem go buy a mediocre Canadian mattress chain right before a potential recession. I think there are some flashbacks to previous rough times and people aren’t waiting around to find out. I’m a long term bull on rates going on higher so I’m ok with it but a bond portfolio matched to their liabilities would have worked out a bit better with rates falling. 

[SafetyinNumbers]

2 hours ago, UK said:

 

But it seems this dip is only FFH related, because I do not see many insurance stocks in the red. Perhaps it is just some kind of noise.

I think there are a few marginal traders that owned it for higher for longer and now they think that’s over so they are selling. They aren’t projecting where book value will be in five years or how understated estimates might be given low expectations for the equity portfolio or how well FFH is positioned to be opportunistic in market volatility.

Edited August 7 by SafetyinNumbers

[Parsad]

51 minutes ago, hardcorevalue said:

I think there were a lot of people that were long Fairfax for higher rates. That trade is dead now and then you have Prem go buy a mediocre Canadian mattress chain right before a potential recession. I think there are some flashbacks to previous rough times and people aren’t waiting around to find out. I’m a long term bull on rates going on higher so I’m ok with it but a bond portfolio matched to their liabilities would have worked out a bit better with rates falling. 

 

You guys are fretting over a minor blip that has nothing to do with Sleep Country.  I've been adding to my FFH holdings...first time since 2020!

 

Cheers!

 

[gfp]

5 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

You guys are fretting over a minor blip that has nothing to do with Sleep Country.  I've been adding to my FFH holdings...first time since 2020!

 

Cheers!

 

 

been just following it down

 

[hardcorevalue]

Ha don’t count me out.

 

I’ve been adding too!

 

[Malmqky]

Added for the first time in over a year on Monday as well. Probably added too much too soon, but that seems to be a reoccurring theme with my investments. Always too much too early, when I should be taking more of a DCA approach. Oh well, I have some cash so if things continue to drop I'll just buy a large chunk again.

[backtothebeach]

24 minutes ago, gfp said:

 

been just following it down

 

 

I'm most impressed with how you top ticked FIH.U !

[Paarslaars]

1 hour ago, hardcorevalue said:

Ha don’t count me out.

 

I’ve been adding too!

 

 

Same, FFH jumped back into my top 3 again.

[yqsun]

35 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

 

Same, FFH jumped back into my top 3 again.

The market index appears quite weak. I plan to wait for a 20% drawdown in FFH to around C$1300 before adding more to my position. 

[Buffett_Groupie]

FFH share price gets no respect at all from good earnings report last week or sell-side analysts' consensus target price of C$2,000/share.

 

Well, simply let management buy back more shares at lower prices, right?

 

Without enduring the pain and suffering, any good results are underserving as Charlie Munger often said: "Why should it be easy to become rich? It isn't supposed to be easy. Anyone who finds it easy is stupid. The world isn't a crazy enough place yet to reward a bunch of underserving people."

 

"Life is a struggle." - Karl Marx

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, yqsun said:

The market index appears quite weak. I plan to wait for a 20% drawdown in FFH to around C$1300 before adding more to my position. 

 

It may or may not...I don't think it's going to hit $1300 CDN.  Think about it:

 

Current book is $980 USD.  They add another $70 USD in book by year-end...worst case scenario!  So $1050 USD book at year-end 2024.

 

Next year they will make around $175 USD per share...so $1225 USD book value at year-end 2025.

 

$1225 USD times 1.33 (assumes USD loses a bit of steam) = $1629 CDN...multiple of 1.25 = $2,036 CDN.

 

Those numbers are very realistic, conservative and means a 40% return by the end of 2025 or 25%+ annualized over 18 months.

 

Cheers!

[MMM20]

1 hour ago, Buffett_Groupie said:

Without enduring the pain and suffering, any good results are underserving as Charlie Munger often said: "Why should it be easy to become rich? It isn't supposed to be easy. Anyone who finds it easy is stupid. The world isn't a crazy enough place yet to reward a bunch of underserving people."

We are talking about a 10% ish drawdown. This happens like twice a year. If this is causing you pain and suffering, you’re probably too big in Fairfax.
 

I thought Charlie was talking about the ~50% portfolio drawdown that we’ll all go through at some point. 
 

Edited August 7 by MMM20

[Junior R]

Fairfax Financial automatic plan bought 8700 shares over $1549 during July...This wasn't included in the earnings... We should see them buy more at these prices