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Posted (edited)

Im still holding FFH, PRX, PDD, AMCR and coal+oil as the most significant holdings.

Edited by Luke
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Posted (edited)
On 6/19/2025 at 2:43 PM, Marco Van Basten said:

I may be wrong, but I do not think so.  I think it is a poorly phrased press release.  I think that they are looking for partnership or sale of their index business, I would be very surprised if they are looking to sell the whole company.  Time will tell of course.  I would rather that they do not sell the company, since I think the stock can compound at 15% per annum over the next decade, in addition, I bought in December of 2019, so you can see that the capital gains tax would be painful. 


Saw this on Amazon. In case you are interested. 
 

Only 82 pages long probably means shallow work and a cash grab by the author. 
 

At $18CAD, that works to 20cent per page for cost. But unsure of value. 

 

 

IMG_4116.thumb.jpeg.51ba027feba73049f255b1848220d0a2.jpeg

 

Edited by Xerxes
Posted

In the interest of pointless calendar scorekeeping. First half stats, down 2.2% YTD

 

Portfolio

Meta (18%)

Bitcoin (16%)

Tesla (11%)

Google (8%)

LVMH (5%)

Lululemon (5%)

Nintendo (5%)

Amazon (5%)

Dominos (3%)

Ethereum (1.5%)

Cash (22.5%)

  • 5 weeks later...
Posted
On 6/24/2025 at 10:23 PM, whiskybravo said:

Joe 45%
PROT.OL 45%
Cash 10%
 

Plan is to sell as stocks appreciate to maintain 10% cash.  The cash is already close to getting me to judgement day.  
 

YTD up 25%.  
 

Deep bow to Greg for his amazing and generous postings on JOE.  Glad my wife and I got to meet him, Cubs and others at the meeting.

 

Protector is in the midst of multibagging and by market cap is still small.  Lots of room to grow expanding into more countries.

 

Both have excellent, shareholder friendly management.  


What made you consider PROT.OL originally? The hard market? 

Posted
5 hours ago, adventurer said:


What made you consider PROT.OL originally? The hard market? 

I first heard about them from Alexander Steinberg.  Rather than any current market conditions, I was looking for a shareholder friendly, smaller company, with a long runway for growth, at a reasonable price.  


They have had strong underwriting in Nordic countries which they have successfully repeated after entering the British market.  Britain now makes up 2/3’s of gross written premiums.  January 1st, they entered France. So they are seeing significant growth, while maintaining strong underwriting mostly in high 80’s/ low 90’s.

 

They manage their investment portfolio, including a concentrated equity portfolio with a value approach.  
 

So to answer your question, I invested with the hope of taking a long ride in an insurance company with “Buffett like” qualities.

  • 1 month later...
Posted (edited)

image.png.a424f7fe80d50a52ea47e944a2bfbef8.png 

 

Portfolio started from scratch in 2025. Percentages add to over 100% together as I use leverage of around 2 in interactive brokers with portfolio margin right now. As a young investor with the possibility to inject more cash if needed/with time I am good with this leverage for now.

 

Some stocks are more long term holds, like FFH, ACGL, GOOGL, BABA, PRX.. others I plan to sell short/mid-term when good sell-opportunities arise: NVO, RHM, LDO, WLN... Where I live, I dont have to pay capital gains taxes. 

Edited by Jan
Posted
4 hours ago, Jan said:

image.png.a424f7fe80d50a52ea47e944a2bfbef8.png 

 

Portfolio started from scratch in 2025. Percentages add to over 100% together as I use leverage of around 2 in interactive brokers with portfolio margin right now. As a young investor with the possibility to inject more cash if needed/with time I am good with this leverage for now.

 

Some stocks are more long term holds, like FFH, ACGL, GOOGL, BABA, PRX.. others I plan to sell short/mid-term when good sell-opportunities arise: NVO, RHM, LDO, WLN... Where I live, I dont have to pay capital gains taxes. 

Do you live in Belgium, Monaco or Switzerland?  Also, I would use options for leverage.  You don't want to get liquidated due to a sharp drop.  

Posted

CSU and Spins 16%
BRK.B  9%
Cash   8.5%
TRRVF   8%
JDG      7%

TEQ       5%
GOOGL  5%
CRAWA  4%
MSFT     3.5%
SPGI       3.5%
ROKO AB  3%

 

15 other 27.5%
 

Posted (edited)

Thank you for the feedback @thowed and @Marco Van Basten.

 

I also dont feel perfectly relaxed with the leverage of 2 right now to be honest and plan to deleverage to around 1.5 near term. There are several limit sell orders in place. I can post an update when I get there. I live in Switzerland. I dont know options well enough to use them as of now, but might learn more.

Edited by Jan
Posted
1 hour ago, Jan said:

Thank you for the feedback @thowed and @Marco Van Basten.

 

I also dont feel perfectly relaxed with the leverage of 2 right now to be honest and plan to deleverage to around 1.5 near term. There are several limit sell orders in place. I can post an update when I get there. I live in Switzerland. I dont know options well enough to use them as of now, but might learn more.

Leverage of 2 is quite crazy 😄 I like sth like 1.2. nice portfolio though!

Posted (edited)

33% fairfax

30% elf.to

10% greggs 

5 % wise

5% rio tinto (comodity basket at reasonable price)

3% constellation brands

3% crocs

3% pinduoduo (copy from li lu and norbert lou)

3% paypal (copy from norbert lou

2% oxy

1% swbi

1% pbf energy

 

Fairfax does some asset management with insurrance leverage, elf.to acts as an index with some insurrance leverage. I use Rio Tinto to have some diversified comodities exposure. Other bussineses have good prospects and good pe ratios, except for wise that is around 25x, but I expect huge growth.

Crocs and pbf energy are a coin toss.

Greggs I think the market overreacted, the brand without growth is quite cheap at the moment. The bussiness model makes it particularly strong for a fast food chain

 

Edited by moatrep
Posted (edited)

FFH        Fairfax Financial 58.0% 

RY          Royal Bank 11.3% 

ATRL      Atkins Realis  4.7% 

TVK        TerraVest  4.4% 

ALS        Altius  4.3% 

ARE       Aecon  4.0% 

BRK.B    Berkshire  3.2% 

FIH.U     Fairfax India  2.0% 

SU         Suncor  1.8% 

CKI        Clarke  1.7% 

FTS       Fortis   1.1% 

GNRC   Generac   1.0% 

 

Plus five other names at 0.5% each.

 

As of this date, portfolio up 18.3%.

Last year (holdings about the same as above), portfolio was up 50.9%

 

Edited by cwericb
Posted

 

Fairfax financial 34%

Floor %Decor 12%

Coupang 12%

Nu Bank 8.5%

BRK.B 7.5%

Lululemon 6.8% (thank you Parsad! 🙂  )

Ulta 6.6%

Molina Healthcare 5.3%

Paypal 5.1%

Centene 2.2%

 

Exclude cash. 

Will add further to LULU if and when price will come down. 

 

 

Posted

I think that you guys are insane to have 30-50% in Fairfax.  Yes, Mr Watsa is a wonderful human being and an excellent manager, but everyone makes mistakes and insurance is a business where mistakes are easier to make than in say a manufacturing business (you don't know the cost of what you are selling for many years.)  I understand, 5-10% at cost, say 10-20% at market, but 30-50%?  As someone who has a large percentage of my net worth invested in Fairfax, I'd say I hope that you don't regret your choice, but in my opinion, this is extremely imprudent.  

Posted
17 hours ago, Marco Van Basten said:

I think that you guys are insane to have 30-50% in Fairfax.  Yes, Mr Watsa is a wonderful human being and an excellent manager, but everyone makes mistakes and insurance is a business where mistakes are easier to make than in say a manufacturing business (you don't know the cost of what you are selling for many years.)  I understand, 5-10% at cost, say 10-20% at market, but 30-50%?  As someone who has a large percentage of my net worth invested in Fairfax, I'd say I hope that you don't regret your choice, but in my opinion, this is extremely imprudent.  

 

About twenty years ago I decided to venture into the market and searched for a long term holding to build a portfolio around. I stumbled on to Fairfax, which at the time was selling for less than $90/ share if memory serves me right. After watching the share price climb I found a forerunner of this board run by Sanjeev and followed it daily for a year or so learning more and more about Fairfax. During that time the share price doubled and I kicked myself for procrastinating and decided to get off my ass and jump in.

 

Yes, today I have around 60% in Fairfax and am reasonably comfortable with that. I've held Fairfax as a major part of my stock portfolio since 2007 and have added to it throughout the years. I have yet to sell a share and have no regrets. My original purchase was about $200/sh and that purchase represents about 1/3 of my present holdings. I stopped buying at about $600/sh CDN. Fairfax has been very good to me over the years.

 

Yes, there have been long periods where looking at the charts it seems Fairfax shares did little. But there were a number of periods where markets were very, very shaky or slipped substantially, yet Fairfax shares would either maintain their price or actually increase in price, offsetting my other losses and helped me sleep at night. Meanwhile, some here have jumped in and out of Fairfax over the years, but I seriously doubt they were able to time the market to produce any better results than long term shareholders. 

 

One of the main reasons I chose Fairfax as the basis of my portfolio is that Prem Watsa's salary then was $600,000/year - peanuts compared to most CEO's, and earns his money through his Fairfax shares - just as I and my fellow shareholders do. Today, 20 years later and CEO a multi-billion dollar company ... his salary is still $600,000! 

 

You say "... insurance is a business where mistakes are easier to make ... ". What helps make me feel comfortable with Fairfax is that this company is by no means just an insurance company. While Fairfax spreads its risks through dozens of insurance companies spread around the world, it also owns everything from airports to restaurants to banks around the globe. 

 

Am I just lucky? Well if so, I have been 'lucky' for nearly 20 years. Are there risks to Fairfax? Of course, just the same as to the stock market in general. (I'll be glad when hurricane season is over 🙂 )

 

One final note. This board is based primarily on Fairfax and Berkshire. Fairfax has been a gift for at least 5 years, yet many on this board do not show, nor have ever shown  Fairfax as a holding. What gives? it is no secret that during that time Fairfax shares steadily climbed 500% AND there is a lot of reason to think that this spectacular performance may not be over. Time will tell.

 

DYODD

Posted

I am like you, I can kick myself for not buying 3 years ago or jump now that the price is reasonable long term. Also to add to the spread of risk, fairfax has done amazing in the insurrance side, with a great long term track record. Periods of stagnation had been the result almost in it's entirely from the mistake of shorting in the investment side, which now we have a promise that will be not be commited anymore. 

Posted
23 hours ago, Marco Van Basten said:

I think that you guys are insane to have 30-50% in Fairfax.  Yes, Mr Watsa is a wonderful human being and an excellent manager, but everyone makes mistakes and insurance is a business where mistakes are easier to make than in say a manufacturing business (you don't know the cost of what you are selling for many years.)  I understand, 5-10% at cost, say 10-20% at market, but 30-50%?  As someone who has a large percentage of my net worth invested in Fairfax, I'd say I hope that you don't regret your choice, but in my opinion, this is extremely imprudent.  

 

Oh come on give me a break.  There is nothing wrong with having 30-50% in one stock, especially Fairfax.  Grow a pair Dinar!  This board is filled with people over diversifying into 1% and .5% positions that will never make a difference in their track record or their financial position.  If you make a high conviction investment and it works out it will become a very large position.  How many Berkshire shareholders should have started selling in the 70's and 80's by your logic?  Keep an eye on what you own and make a change when you don't want to own it anymore.  Not because it got big through its own merits.

 

I routinely own 40% plus positions in single stocks.   Trust me it is better than owning 30 of your worst ideas.

Posted
41 minutes ago, gfp said:

 

Oh come on give me a break.  There is nothing wrong with having 30-50% in one stock, especially Fairfax.  Grow a pair Dinar!  This board is filled with people over diversifying into 1% and .5% positions that will never make a difference in their track record or their financial position.  If you make a high conviction investment and it works out it will become a very large position.  How many Berkshire shareholders should have started selling in the 70's and 80's by your logic?  Keep an eye on what you own and make a change when you don't want to own it anymore.  Not because it got big through its own merits.

 

I routinely own 40% plus positions in single stocks.   Trust me it is better than owning 30 of your worst ideas.

I am all for having winners run, and I agree with you regarding 0.5% and 1% positions.  I generally start with a 5% position, and sometimes as much as 10%.  I am comfortable with GE/Safran/Airbus being a 30% position, and AMRZ/HDLMY/MCEM/ACA/CRH being another 30%+ (to be clear, if not for tax consequences, I'd be out of HDLMY & CRH.).  I am just naturally weary of insurance companies given the black box nature and reliance on an incredible team to do well.  I made Fairfax roughly an 8% position (at cost) at around USD 928 about a year and a half ago, right after Muddy Waters report came out.  

 

Regarding Fairfax, there is something else unique to me: I own New England Realty (NEN), a house in the Northeast and Fairfax.  All of those are vulnerable to a major earthquake or major hurricane, so that impacts my decision making.  

 

This is my fourth decade of doing this.  I still remember the Mexican Bolsa down 90% in dollar terms in 1994.  I am just not comfortable having 40% in any name/industry at cost.  I am fine with 20% at cost and 40% at market sure.  Of course, if you show me a George Soros type bet (1992 against the British pound), then I think I will be like George...

 

 

 

 

Posted
29 minutes ago, Marco Van Basten said:

I am fine with 20% at cost and 40% at market sure.

 

Seems like 10-20% at cost can easily run and stay 40%+ at market for a long time.   Yeah the great ones can find a bunch of winners over time, but getting one or two right happens.  Wouldn't want to sell your winner just because it's 40%+ to water your weeds.  

 

 

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