Peter Zeihan FULL Presentation 2023

[james22]

Entertaining.

 

 

[Parsad]

Some terrific data and information in there!  Cheers!

[beerbaron]

Is that me or a lot of what he's saying is not substianted? For example, the number of empty housing that I heard for a university professor that specializes on India and China last week was 100 to 150M, not the billions Zeihan states. Also, the part about Jinping about not knowing about blackouts does not seem plausible China has news and even under a communist regime, those kind of things pop-out. Very articulate dude but I somewhat feel like he's not being truthfull.

 

BeerBaron

Edited December 5, 2023 by beerbaron

[backtothebeach]

Mixing interesting data with inaccuracies, grandstanding and making outlandish predictions for effect.

 

Somehow reminds me of Munger’s  “If you mix raisins with turds, you still have turds.”

[Jaygo]

Really enjoyable to read or listen to PZ. I would say that his quality has gone down a bit since become so marketable. I would imagine his difficulties lie in being invited to comment on just about everything now so he is bound to be more inaccurate.

 

His long term focus is probably what is best to listen to and his short term ideas and view on current battles ect are to be taken for what they are, Soundbites.

 

His understanding of history and geography is impressive and his ability to send his message to the public is better than most historians therefore he is very popular. The future is unknowable and the more we predict the more we are wrong. Tim marshal, Robert kaplan, Brzeinski are good too but dont have the personality that PZ has.

 

I wish we could have had a long form discussion with a guy like PZ and Kissinger.

[wolverine890]

I really enjoyed accidental superpower and then felt like his following books were capitalizing on one good book. Their quality and ideas weren't nearly as good as the first. 

[beerbaron]

I never actually knew anything about Zeihan before yesterday, so I did not have any bias.

 

Here is private debt to GDP figures from IMF and world bank... NOTHING like Zeihan shows. Unless someone cal tell me I'm wrong, this guy seems to molds and deform figures to make the story so simple a 5 year old would enjoy's the show. Take whatever comes out of this guy's presentation with a huge grain of salt.

 

Beerbaron
 

[james22]

I like the description of him as the Jim Cramer of geopolitical analysis.

[Gregmal]

Higher level finance is basically just all about who can lie the most aggressively/sensationally while quasi supporting it with misrepresented data in order to get eyeballs and AUM. Very similar to high level politics. 

[ValueArb]

I remember loving Azimov's Foundation books when I was young. The idea of a system or a person that can accurately predict social, economic and political futures was great science fiction, but the real world has always proven too complex. Someone may get one prediction right, but it doesn't make the odds of their next prediction being right any higher. But we love to anoint seers based on that one brilliant insight, until they prove themselves unworthy and we move on to the next one. 

[Spekulatius]

Fact checking Peter Zeihan:

I recommend following the Money and Macro Channel. This fellow seems pretty level headed and does a good job explaining economic topics.

 

It should be outed that he has been predicting China surmised since 2010:

 

 

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/stratfor-predictions-for-the-next-decade-2010-1?IR=T

 

Edited December 9, 2023 by Spekulatius

[Sweet]

I don’t know much about this guy, but a recent video was posted in the energy sector thread, a topic I have better than average knowledge of, and some of his facts were just wrong.

 

Although I did watch a video of his about about Scottish Independence, and found myself largely agreeing with him. 

Edited December 9, 2023 by Sweet

[Spekulatius]

Zeihan has some good ideas but takes them too far by using the most extreme outlier data or sources he can find when they fit his narrative. He ignores other data that does not fit storyline.

 

Take a good idea too far and you are quite likely wrong.