james22 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Criminals don't trust anybody, but they trust Bitcoin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueArb Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 10 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said: What I'm hearing is you're making excuses for Adam Neuman, Trump, and Bank CEOS being rich after failure, but the Winklevoss can't be afforded the same excuses when a firm they partnered with failed? Did I get that right? Point is, this is what bankruptcy does. It takes the onus off the executives and decision makers and onto those capitalizing the firms debt/equity. It's ALWAYS the capital providers who lose in bankruptcy. Employees still get paid. Lawyers get paid. Trade claims get paid. Equity and debt? Well that's for the courts to work out. This is how EVERY bankruptcy works. Not just the Winklevoss' - which is itself a misnomer because their firm is still operating and avoided bankruptcy. Outside of Gemini, the Winklevoss brothers are probably some of the largest holders of Bitcoin as it's estimated they still hold over 70,000 BTC that were purchased largely from their Facebook settlement proceeds. There was never any questions they'd still be filthy rich even if Gemini went bust. Maybe it’s their BTC stake that has you so wound up here, but Gemini committed fraud, WeWork didn’t. Avoiding bankruptcy over money you frauded from customers isn’t a badge of honor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 17 hours ago, ValueArb said: Maybe it’s their BTC stake that has you so wound up here, but Gemini committed fraud, WeWork didn’t. Avoiding bankruptcy over money you frauded from customers isn’t a badge of honor. What fraud did Gemini commit? If you were accusing Genesis if something, I might could agree with you. All I think Gemini is guilty of is perhaps poor due diligence in selecting a partner for the product. Maybe it's their BTC stake that has YOU so wound up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jfan Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 I know some find this show a bit polarizing, but here is a video on bitcoin mining in Africa discussing it potential impact (use of stranded energy sources and its impact on stabilizing energy supplies for the local populace). At the end, they discuss a South African company that can facilitate BTC transactions/storage without the internet. I've attached Gladstein's article here as well. Stranded: How Bitcoin is Saving Wasted Energy and Expanding Financial Freedom in Africa - Bitcoin Magazine - Bitcoin News, Articles and Expert Insights I have not fact checked the article below, but this is an interesting article on this country's investment arm treatment of bitcoin mining. Ethiopia To Become The First African Country To Start Bitcoin Mining (forbes.com) I think this may be how BTC addresses the Cantillon effect to some degree. Here in the West, we have no pressure to adopt or innovate around the technology, we are more concerned about it as an investment, its mainstream financialization, but in the ROW, there can be a different focus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jfan Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 @Cigarbutt Here are a couple threads on BTC valuation 1) Capriole Investments | Bitcoin Energy-Value Equivalence From the same author with his model visualized on tradingview Bitcoin Production Cost — Indicator by capriole_charles — TradingView 2) Jurrien Timmer from Fidelity has a bunch of supply, demand, and valuation models that he posts on Twitter. 3) The Rational Root on X has some cool charts from on-chain data and price movements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jfan Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 On 2/20/2024 at 6:25 PM, wachtwoord said: I shared this here early 2018 and the approach is still true today imo: https://s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/john-pfeffer/An+Investor's+Take+on+Cryptoassets+v6.pdf Yes, thank you this article. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jfan Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 @Cigarbutt I'm not particularly tech savvy, but you can spend a few hundred dollars and build your own node as well as a nerdminer/bitaxe miner to learn about how the network works. Below are some sites to buy simplified DIY miner parts, or you could go to their respective GitHub sites. NerdMiner - bitronics.store Bitaxe My son and I built a raspberry pi used umbrel os to spin up a node. Umbrel - Personal home cloud and OS for self-hosting We spend a lot of time pontificating about why the price should or should not go up, but I think it might be useful to experiment with the user-facing technology to better understand the value proposition (if there is one) since BTC does have global reach. Hope this helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blugolds11 Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 I watched a Youtube video regarding major drug dealers who had been caught, they said a significant portion of their transactions were in BTC. Imagine hypothetically that a cartel has a large amount of BTC, that then balloons to $1M+ each...that is a tremendous amount of power, for drugs, for gangs, for weapons, to say nothing of terrorists who evidently dabble themselves. What is the general consensus on how/when the gov steps in. For every "benefit" I hear of an unregulated currency I always think about the dangers involved and I dont hear much about the threats/potential problems it would cause. I almost think of it as allowed for now, but could/would/should be addressed before it is allowed to cause serious consequences. At what point does that become an issue/concern? Does anyone consider this? What can be done to address it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jfan Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 4 minutes ago, Blugolds11 said: I watched a Youtube video regarding major drug dealers who had been caught, they said a significant portion of their transactions were in BTC. Imagine hypothetically that a cartel has a large amount of BTC, that then balloons to $1M+ each...that is a tremendous amount of power, for drugs, for gangs, for weapons, to say nothing of terrorists who evidently dabble themselves. What is the general consensus on how/when the gov steps in. For every "benefit" I hear of an unregulated currency I always think about the dangers involved and I dont hear much about the threats/potential problems it would cause. I almost think of it as allowed for now, but could/would/should be addressed before it is allowed to cause serious consequences. At what point does that become an issue/concern? Does anyone consider this? What can be done to address it. 2024 Crypto Crime Trends from Chainalysis I have not read this one specifically yet, but have come across prior articles from the same group addressing this topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james22 Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Chainalysis found that only 0.34% [$24.2B] of the transaction volume with cryptocurrencies in 2023 was attributable to criminal activity. https://www.chainalysis.com/blog/2024-crypto-crime-report-introduction/ Research suggests that illicit activities in the EU generated about €110 billion in 2010 – or around 1% of the EU’s GDP. https://transparency.eu/priority/financial-flows-crime/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueArb Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 18 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said: What fraud did Gemini commit? If you were accusing Genesis if something, I might could agree with you. All I think Gemini is guilty of is perhaps poor due diligence in selecting a partner for the product. Maybe it's their BTC stake that has YOU so wound up? Why have a conversation if you don't read anything I wrote? Quote Gemini promoted a financially unsound Earn program (and illegal according to the SEC) to clients, promising imaginary returns that weren't supported by the collateral. Their own internal documents showed they knew this, and that they kept promoting it even when they knew Genesis was at risk of failure. The issue isn't that their main investment filed bankruptcy, its that they lied to clients about the safety of their investments, including using misleading language to lead clients to believe their deposits were FDIC insured. All of these allegations, if proven, are fraud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 (edited) 1 hour ago, ValueArb said: Why have a conversation if you don't read anything I wrote? So because they advertised a product on their platform, they're guilty of fraud? Interest WAS being paid. Returns were being made. But it was riskier than advertised and the risks blew it up. Can you prove that Gemini knew it was riskier? Genesis certainly knew. They were the ones making the loans. They absolutely lied, concentrated the loans, and encouraging risky behavior from the borrowers. But prove to me Gemini committed fraud by offering the product. What internal documents? I'm not following the trial in detail, but what I've seen so far is Gemini pulled billions in client funds from the program which is, in part, what toppled the house of cards. Not that they continued to add to it. And as far as the SEC? They also said that Bitcoin spot ETFs couldn't proceed while approving futures ETFs and had to be taken to court, wasted years, and millions of investor dollars through inflated fees and negative roll yield because of it. The SEC has an axe to grind against crypto for whatever reason and their lawsuits against ripple and Grayscale prove it. Not sure that it was fraud just because the SEC called this a "security". Edited February 23 by TwoCitiesCapital Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueArb Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 28 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said: So because they advertised a product on their platform, they're guilty of fraud? No, because they created and sold a fraudulent product on their platform, they are guilty of fraud. 28 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said: Interest WAS being paid. Returns were being made. But it was riskier than advertised and the risks blew it up. Can you prove that Gemini knew it was riskier? Genesis certainly knew. They were the ones making the loans. They absolutely lied, concentrated the loans, and encouraging risky behavior from the borrowers. But prove to me Gemini committed fraud by offering the product. What internal documents? I'm not following the trial in detail, but what I've seen so far is Gemini pulled billions in client funds from the program which is, in part, what toppled the house of cards. Not that they continued to add to it. So you are asking me to spoon feed you all the legal claims and evidence that has been provided against Gemini? It doesn't seem you really care that much if you aren't reading it on your own. 28 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said: And as far as the SEC? They also said that Bitcoin spot ETFs couldn't proceed while approving futures ETFs and had to be taken to court, wasted years, and millions of investor dollars through inflated fees and negative roll yield because of it. The SEC has an axe to grind against crypto for whatever reason and their lawsuits against ripple and Grayscale prove it. Not sure that it was fraud just because the SEC called this a "security". Paying interest on loaned assets makes Earn tick a few more boxes on the SEC definition of a security than a generic crypto coin. https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2023-7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 (edited) 31 minutes ago, ValueArb said: No, because they created and sold a fraudulent product on their platform, they are guilty of fraud. I don't think this word means what you think it means. 31 minutes ago, ValueArb said: So you are asking me to spoon feed you all the legal claims and evidence that has been provided against Gemini? It doesn't seem you really care that much if you aren't reading it on your own. Im not going to pretend to be an expert on everything that is happening (BlockFi, Celsius, FTX, Genesis, etc). It's a lot. There's a ton of cases, filings, bankruptcies etc. But I am following it more than a casual armchair observer because I had money at stake in multiple of the platforms and am involved in the Celsius bankruptcy. I'm open to being wrong, but ultimately from what I've seen it wasn't Gemini that did anything other than perhaps vetting Genesis to be the one who provided the services. BlockFi and Celsius both used used some Genesis' product on the back-end as well. It's my under Genesis originated 70+% of the crypto loan volume before it's collapsed. Everyone used it. It's Genesis seems to be largely at fault. Celsius has some questionable activities like the CEOs friends and family yanking tens of millions of deposits while he was separately tweeting about how safe/sound everything was. Additionally, they lied about concentration and collateralization of the loans. BlockFi and Gemini? From what I've seen, they largely just got caught up as collateral damage and ice yet to see anything show untoward behavior. And Gemini survived that where few others did. 31 minutes ago, ValueArb said: Paying interest on loaned assets makes Earn tick a few more boxes on the SEC definition of a security than a generic crypto coin. https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2023-7 Perhaps. But it's the same agency that thinks a token that provides no ownership interest, no interest, no anything constitutes a security as well. Some things in crypto are fundamentally the same - like banks and a need for regulation and transparency. Other things, like tokenization and DAOs aren't entirely different and need rules to be throught through. Edited February 23 by TwoCitiesCapital Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave86ch Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 I'm reading a recently released email exchange between Satoshi and Martii Malmi, dated from 2009 to 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wachtwoord Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 14 hours ago, Dave86ch said: I'm reading a recently released email exchange between Satoshi and Martii Malmi, dated from 2009 to 2011. So why own Ethereum? (Not trying to put you on the spot. You seem to understand matters but still choose to own it. Your reasoning could be interesting). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james22 Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave86ch Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 (edited) 15 hours ago, wachtwoord said: So why own Ethereum? (Not trying to put you on the spot. You seem to understand matters but still choose to own it. Your reasoning could be interesting). Good question. I purchased it a long time ago and staked a small portion of my investment, but I still own it because I recognize the potential of the Turing-complete Ethereum Virtual Machine. I've learned the basics of Solidity and a few frameworks like Foundry and Hardhat. I see a significant role for it in our society, and many large institutions are involved. However, I acknowledge that the staking mechanism is exploitable, and I wouldn't bet everything on a Proof of Stake algorithm. Every rollup pay duty on eth Edited February 25 by Dave86ch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james22 Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 I think the risk-reward proposition for Bitcoin in the year 2024 is better than any other time in the history of the asset. Saylor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james22 Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 It's beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 On 2/23/2024 at 9:42 AM, Blugolds11 said: I watched a Youtube video regarding major drug dealers who had been caught, they said a significant portion of their transactions were in BTC. Imagine hypothetically that a cartel has a large amount of BTC, that then balloons to $1M+ each...that is a tremendous amount of power, for drugs, for gangs, for weapons, to say nothing of terrorists who evidently dabble themselves. What is the general consensus on how/when the gov steps in. For every "benefit" I hear of an unregulated currency I always think about the dangers involved and I dont hear much about the threats/potential problems it would cause. I almost think of it as allowed for now, but could/would/should be addressed before it is allowed to cause serious consequences. At what point does that become an issue/concern? Does anyone consider this? What can be done to address it. Governments are the largest cartels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blugolds11 Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 8 minutes ago, Castanza said: Governments are the largest cartels You wont get an argument from me on that...but I've also never heard of cartels rolling over and allowing another cartel to take over control without a fight...especially when it would be easy for them to stop/prevent it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Just now, Blugolds11 said: You wont get an argument from me on that...but I've also never heard of cartels rolling over and allowing another cartel to take over control without a fight...especially when it would be easy for them to stop/prevent it. Prohibition of any kind has never once worked in all of recorded human history. At most it creates short-term headwinds for those products and created black markets (self hosting nodes in this case).....this is why if you choose to own it, you should size accordingly. A "short term headwind" of 10-20 years would be no small issue to deal with if you had a large portion of assets you need now tied up. the U.S. Treasury owns 5b of BTC. I know for a fact the NSA utilized BTC for specific situations. So does the FBI...it's useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 10 hours ago, james22 said: It's beginning. I was beginning to wonder if yesterday was the start of the FOMO. Strange it may be happening before the supply shock, but perhaps 4th time is a charm for markets to actually be forward looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james22 Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 14 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said: I was beginning to wonder if yesterday was the start of the FOMO. Strange it may be happening before the supply shock, but perhaps 4th time is a charm for markets to actually be forward looking. Too early for FOMO yet, I think. Most oblivious or still unconvinced. More probably just (ETF) demand > supply. FOMO only maybe once surpasses ATH ($69k)? Inflation-adjusted ATH ($80k)? $100k? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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