Cryptocurrencies

[Buckeye]

10 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

Basically the justification for every shit coun ever....

 

Someone asked me the other day "what's the next Bitcoin?". I told them the answer is Bitcoin. 

 And you very well may be right!  Also something a Boomer would say about their Boomercoin.  Time will tell. 

[Fly]

3 hours ago, Buckeye said:

“It feels like bitcoin circa 2013,” said Barry Silbert, founder of Digital Currency Group and Grayscale Investments, which set up the first publicly traded bitcoin fund.

 

 

How's Ethereum Classic working out for him?

 

It isn't about the tech, the team, the white paper, the partnerships, etc etc.

 

It is the network. Largest and most robust proof of work network wins. Call it Boomercoin, call it old tech, call it whatever you want. 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

Luke Gromen had interesting commentary on reserves this AM 

 

Gold now surpasses USTs as the most reserved asset. We're watching the loss of reserve status by the USD even as it retains the ability to act as a unit of account. 

 

This 1) is probably signaling the beginning of the end of USD dominance in trade/reserves/reserve currency status 

 

And 2) goes to show that Bitcoin doesn't need to be one to be the other. It can take on reserve status long before it's a unit of account. 

 

 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

I have confidence in BTC - 

 

I have quite a bit less in ETH and others at this point.

 

I think Bitcoin will work for Saylor, but I wonder what it looks like for Tom Lee to dump 5.5 million ETH on the market 

Edited June 4 by TwoCitiesCapital

[jfan]

Definitely don't understand everything around the cryptography lingo, but found some useful tidbits

 

 

[Milu]

Zcash down 40% today after critical bug discovered that may permit counterfeiting. 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

Not that it's impossible with BTC, but with the code being open source for ~18 years at this point, it becomes less and less likely with each passing day. 

 

Is another reason why it's 'slow to improve'. It only has to do one thing - be sound money. And as long as it can do that reliably, the rest of the functionality will come in time - either on chain or via L2 functionality. 

[SharperDingaan]

Have to think that BTC drops another 10%+ the closer we get to the SpaceX IPO; nothing to do with BTC itself; simply demand being diverted to new shiny toys . Opportunities.

 

SD

[TwoCitiesCapital]

Bitmine just issued 3.5 million preferred with a 9% coupon at 80 cents on the dollar implying they're able to get filled at a ~12% yield. 

 

So seems like STRC is still in the right ballpark for yield. 

 

Honestly surprised Bitmine is able to fill at these levels - they're sitting on similar sized losses with a fraction of the notional exposure and I have a lot more confidence in BTC vs ETH.

 

Would've thought they'd have to scale to a higher yield to reflect the risk to get filled. But the market seems to still be demonstrating demand for these securities at low double digit yields so I expect STRC will be fine. 

 

 

[Xerxes]

 

[SharperDingaan]

Have to think that the recent changes at MSTR are going to make the BTC price less resilient, leading to bigger downs as/when they occurr, offset by greater confidence in the sustainability of the new lows. If you have the patience .... not a bad place to be.

 

Good luck.

 

SD

[Buckeye]

I sometimes wonder if the 125k mark in Bitcoin will ever be seen again.  Or, if that was the all-time top.  
 

We’ve had everything from “the most crypto friendly administration in the world,” where everyone and their son’s (and wife, #smelania), has pumped this turd through every means possible to Congress’ enacting of the “Genius” act, along with every Boomer brokerage house stuffing this poop pile into every crypto product/ETF they could conceive of, and 125k is all it could do?  What’s going to take Bitcoin higher than that? Especially now, when everyone is competing for capital. 

 

It seems to me that AI is the “new cool thing” in town and is actually delivering on it’s promise, where as it’s becoming clear that Bitcoin will never offer any of the “benefits,” or live up to the hype that we were promised by the promoters.  I remember being told that Bitcoin’s value was so great because it was “backed by the most powerful computer network in the world!” Welp, seems like some of these “computers” currently being developed by Anthropic, Gemini, OpenAI etc. may just be slightly more powerful than a computer network that does one thing…tracks the price of Bitcoin.  I was also told that with Bitcoin, you could buy a multiple-million dollar house, half-way around the world, in a matter of minutes! Is anyone actually doing that!? No they are not and they never will. 
 

Gen Z and Gen Alpha are much too sharp to carry on the charade of acting like Bitcoin is anything other than a big, money-grabbing scam. They’ll let the Boomers, GenX and the Millenials waste all of their free-time trying to convince themselves, and others, of the “value.” 
 

When Michael Saylor, The Winklevoss Twins and Scarramucci are your industry’s biggest supporters, you may want to find another industry. 

Edited 3 hours ago by Buckeye

[TwoCitiesCapital]

1 minute ago, Buckeye said:

 Where as it’s becoming clear that Bitcoin will never offer any of the “benefits,” or live up to the hype that we were promised by the promoters. 

 

I'm curious as to what 'benefits' you feel it's failed to deliver on? On why 2026 is different in this regard than say ~2021 when $60k was a euphoric bubble top ...but now is sign of death? 

 

1 minute ago, Buckeye said:

 I was also told that with Bitcoin, you could buy a multiple-million dollar house, half-way around the world, in a matter of minutes! Is anyone actually doing that!? No they are not and they never will. 

 

 

I dunno about half way around the world - but I expect I may do something like this halfway across town in ~2-years. 

 

Ferrari started accepting it too - and it's not because nobody was asking. 

 

1 minute ago, Buckeye said:

Gen Z and Gen Alpha are much too sharp to carry on the charade of acting like Bitcoin is anything other than a big, money-grabbing scam. They’ll let the Boomers, GenX and the Millenials waste all of their free-time trying to convince themselves, and others, of the “value.” 

 

 

I think it's funny that you think there is an abundance of Boomers or Gen X in this trade

It's been around for 15-years and I still have Boomers/GenX ask me what it is before dismissing the response 30 seconds later. 

 

1 minute ago, Buckeye said:

When Michael Saylor, The Winklevoss Twins and Scarramucci are your industry’s biggest supporters, you may want to find another industry. 

 

Unsavory characters are everywhere. xAI/Musk don't strike me as bastions if integrity, but nobody is suggesting AI is a scam because of his involvement. 

[SharperDingaan]

43 minutes ago, Buckeye said:

I sometimes wonder if the 125k mark in Bitcoin will ever be seen again.  Or, if that was the all-time top.  

 

If you think USD devalues 30% as reserve currency status is threatened, and that AI investment eventually turns into a dog .... it's more a matter of when, versus if. If it takes 3 years .... that 24%+ 3-yr CAGR (72/3) is not bad .

 

SD

[TwoCitiesCapital]

With the note that I've been TOO bullish in thinking the 4-year cycle was broken....

 

I'm still not certain that this is the traditional bear market. Prior bears have taken us down 70-80+%. Here were sitting at ~55% with multiple sentiment, volume, and pre-based metrics flashing similar signals to prior major bottoms. 

 

It could be that this is a mid-cycle correction a-la 2019. Prior bull markets have had multiple 50+% pull backs, but were both more violent/fast to the upside and downside than this one has been. 

 

If it's true that secular adoption has broken the prior 4-year cycle and volatility continues to moderate, then an extended multi-year bull market with a handful of 40-50% pullbacks COULD be the path instead of the prior violent up/down BTC has previously done and this could simply be the first 50% correction in what is a longer term bull market with new highs to be expected in the next ~12-18 months. 

 

 

 

[Milu]

The 4 year cycle always seems like a load of nonsense to me. Doesn’t really make and logical sense and the sample size of 3 or 4 cycles is too short to draw any actionable conclusions. Although I’ve thought this for a long time and so far it seems to be following the cycle again. Maybe I’ll change my mind if it bottoms later this year and then proceeds to boom in 2027.

Edited 1 hour ago by Milu

[Buckeye]

2 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

I'm curious as to what 'benefits' you feel it's failed to deliver on? On why 2026 is different in this regard than say ~2021 when $60k was a euphoric bubble top ...but now is sign of death? 

 

 

I dunno about half way around the world - but I expect I may do something like this halfway across town in ~2-years. 

 

Ferrari started accepting it too - and it's not because nobody was asking. 

 

 

I think it's funny that you think there is an abundance of Boomers or Gen X in this trade

It's been around for 15-years and I still have Boomers/GenX ask me what it is before dismissing the response 30 seconds later. 

 

 

Unsavory characters are everywhere. xAI/Musk don't strike me as bastions if integrity, but nobody is suggesting AI is a scam because of his involvement. 

OK, I'll play along, but only for a bit as I should be outside enjoying the sunshine.

 

I already listed "backed by the world's most powerful computer" and "being able to buy a mutl-million dollar house, half-way around the world, in a matter of minutes" as two "beneifts" that were promised.  And now you need more?  Why?  Has the argument now changed to "no Bitcoin supporter ever promised any "benefits"?    Ok, here's two more.  How about "being able to quickly, cheaply and seamlessly move money around the world," even though you can already to this with PayPal, Venmo and Zelle.  Or, "if you live in an underdeveloped country and are worried about blah, blah, blah..." yea, because most people here, invest to help out the citizens of underdeveloped counties.  Good grief.  And now apparently we can add "buying a Ferrari with your Bitcoin" as a "benefit."  Because nothing says "wide-spread adoption" like being able to buy a Ferrari with your Bitcoin.

 

And you think the assumption that Boomers, Millennials and GenX are into Bitcoin is funny?  Ok, fine.  So which generation would you say is most into Bitcoin?  Maybe it's "The Greatest Generation"?   Any chance you fit into any three of my mentioned generations?  Because Saylor, The Winkelvi and the Mooch all seem to confirm that narrative.

 

Finally, pointing to Elon Musk's lack of integrity as some proof that this is investment will work out great, seems like a real stretch, but you are certainly free to try to connect the dots.    

[TwoCitiesCapital]

45 minutes ago, Buckeye said:

 

I already listed "backed by the world's most powerful computer" and "being able to buy a mutl-million dollar house, half-way around the world, in a matter of minutes" as two "beneifts" that were promised.  And now you need more?  Why? 

 

Yes. Because those are both still true?

 

You can still buy the same houses, in the same time, overseas with Bitcoin ? It just might require more Bitcoin now given the price movement? But that isnt an indictment of its ability - it's a reflection of the current market price?

 

Additionally, Bitcoin hash rate is down from the peak, but still higher than mid-2025 or the start of 2025 so YoY is still up and more secure than 95% of its existence?

 

So why are you claiming these are somehow different now in June of 2026? 

 

45 minutes ago, Buckeye said:

Has the argument now changed to "no Bitcoin supporter ever promised any "benefits"?   

 

No. You just simply haven't stated what's changed to suggest this benefits are no longer present? 

 

45 minutes ago, Buckeye said:

Ok, here's two more.  How about "being able to quickly, cheaply and seamlessly move money around the world," even though you can already to this with PayPal, Venmo and Zelle.

 

Still true. It takes 10 minutes to use Bitcoin and send it anywhere. 

 

I just paid $30k to a Porsche dealership in Ohio. Guess what? They don't accept PayPal, Venmo, or Zelle. They do accept debit, but my bank blocked the transaction for being above my $20k daily allowable limit

 

...you have limits on how much of your own money your allowed to spend BTW.

 

Even when I asked them to raise the limit I was told 'no'. So I tried to run $20k on my debit and $10k on my credit card and just eat the processing fees - bank still declined the $20k debit.

 

So I had to pay $20 to wire the funds and then sit in the dealership for 90 minutes while waiting for them to confirm receipt of the wire. Whole ordeal took nearly 3 hours just to make a payment...

 

This is how the traditional banking system works. You require 1) permission and 2) time to spend your own money. And even when you have both, the bank can still fuck it up. 

 

Had I wanted to spend Bitcoin, and the dealership open to receiving it, I could have sent the hole amount in 10 minutes for pennies and saved time, fees, and headaches. 

 

45 minutes ago, Buckeye said:

  Or, "if you live in an underdeveloped country and are worried about blah, blah, blah..." yea, because most people here, invest to help out the citizens of underdeveloped counties.

 

It's not why I invest - but I can see the benefits to people in under developed markets. I have a hard time I understanding why having global demand would be a bad thing? Or why recognizing the perspective of others is a negative? 

 

45 minutes ago, Buckeye said:

  Good grief.  And now apparently we can add "buying a Ferrari with your Bitcoin" as a "benefit."  Because nothing says "wide-spread adoption" like being able to buy a Ferrari with your Bitcoin.

 

No - was just a point that Bitcoin is still spendable and being accepted for large purchases because your post implied something had changed there? I'm still not hearing anything supporting your claims of the change that is occurring to remove the benefits that have long been demonstrated? 

 

45 minutes ago, Buckeye said:

Finally, pointing to Elon Musk's lack of integrity as some proof that this is investment will work out great, seems like a real stretch, but you are certainly free to try to connect the dots.    

 

This is a strawman - it wasn't proof it would work out great. It was simply demonstrating that the characters of a handful of involved individuals doesn't detail a thesis for an entire industry. 

 

You should probably spend that time in the sun. It's pretty clear that your comments about things having changed were empty and your relying on price confirmation bias instead of an actual developed thesis and evidence

Edited 6 minutes ago by TwoCitiesCapital

[73 Reds]

5 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

Yes. Because those are both still true?

 

You can still buy the same houses, in the same time, overseas with Bitcoin ? It just might require more Bitcoin now given the price movement? But that is an indictment of its ability - it's a reflection of the current market price?

 

Additionally, Bitcoin hash rate is down from the peak, but still higher than mid-2025 or the start of 2025 so YoY is still up and more secure than 95% of its existence?

 

So why are you claiming these are somehow different now? 

 

 

No. You just simply haven't stated what's changed? 

 

 

Still true. It takes 10 minutes to use Bitcoin and send it anywhere. 

 

I just paid $30k to a Porsche dealership in Ohio. Guess what? They don't accept PayPal, Venmo, or Zelle. They do accept debit, but my bank blocked the transaction for being above my $20k daily allowable limit for debt transactions....you have limits on how much of your own money your allowed to spend BTW. Even when I asked them to raise the limit I was told 'no'. So I tried to run $20k on my debt and $10k on my credit card and just eat the processing fees - bank still declined the $20k debit. So I had to pay $20 to wire the funds the sit in the dealership for 90 minutes while waiting for them to confirm receipt of the wire.

 

This is how the traditional banking system works. You require 1) permission and 2) time. And even when you have both, the bank can still fuck it up. 

 

Had I wanted to spend Bitcoin, and the dealership open to receiving it, I couldn't have sent the hole amount in 10 minutes for pennies and saved time and headaches. 

 

 

It's not why I invest - but I can see the benefits to people in under developed markets. I have a hard time I understanding why having global demand would be a bad thing? 

 

 

No - was just a point that Bitcoin is still spendable and being accepted for large purchases because your post implied something had changed there? 

 

 

This is a strawman - it wasn't proof it would work out great. It was simply demonstrating that the characters of a handful of involved individuals doesn't detail a thesis for an entire industry. 

 

To should probably spend that time in the sun. It's pretty clear that your comments about things having changed were empty and your simply gloating on price confirmation bias instead  of an actual developed thesis that is playing out in the markets

Hmm, I send and receive large bank wires several times each month.  Seemless and costs nothing.  Why didn't you just wire the money to the Porsche dealership?  As an aside, I believe digital currency is indeed the future but still have two elementary questions:  Why will it be BTC and I still see no relationship between BTC price and value because there are plenty of viable and near cost-free alternatives for average people who typically only hold as much cash as they need.