TwoCitiesCapital Posted February 5 Posted February 5 (edited) 15 minutes ago, Milu said: I always found the 4 year cycle a load of nonsense but I suppose if enough people believe in it then perhaps it becomes self fulfilling, I suppose many of the bitcoin bears would say the same about bitcoin Wasn’t 2025 a down year though which seems to break the 4 year cycle pattern, not sure what mental gymnastics people are going though to explain around that? By a few percentage points, but the "4-year cycle" doesn't follow the calendar year. It follows the halving cycle. And for the cycle to be consistent with prior ones, the expectation was for a top between August and October which is what we got. I had expected some roughness around this transition as I knew people would be throwing in the towel given how much you see about the "cycle" posted. But I figured it had been broken and we were witnessing evidence of that with the differences this cycle (mentioned above) and that you'd get some volatility from December - March before we resumed climbing again, but I didn't have a 50+% correction in the cards. Is looking a lot more like prior cycles than you'd hope if it were actually broken - only a something close to a new ATH soonish would really invalidate that the cycle is still in place. Edited February 5 by TwoCitiesCapital
Milu Posted February 5 Posted February 5 8 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said: By a few percentage points, but the "4-year cycle" doesn't follow the calendar year. It follows the halving cycle. And for the cycle to be consistent with prior ones, the expectation was for a top between August and October which is what we got. I had expected some roughness around this transition as I knew people would be throwing in the towel given how much you see about the "cycle" posted. But I figured it had been broken and we were witnessing evidence of that with the differences this cycle (mentioned above) and that you'd get some volatility from December - March before we resumed climbing again, but I didn't have a 50+% correction in the cards. Is looking a lot more like prior cycles than you'd hope if it were actually broken - only a something close to a new ATH soonish would really invalidate that the cycle is still in place. Might be worth buying some more bitcoin so if prices keep coming down. Maybe we will get to 25 or 30k if previous 80% drawdowns show their face again.
TwoCitiesCapital Posted February 5 Posted February 5 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Milu said: Might be worth buying some more bitcoin so if prices keep coming down. Maybe we will get to 25 or 30k if previous 80% drawdowns show their face again. Bought $500 this AM. Keeping up with the DCA I would hope not to see $25 -30k again just because we didn't get anywhere near the same euphoric highs as we've seen in prior cycles. Would've expected $200-300k to perhaps result in 70-80% decline, but wouldn't expect that from $125k. Weekly RSI is already oversold which happened before prior bear markets grinded our a bottom. 2022 bottom was ~4-5x the 2018 low. 4.5 the prior 2022 low puts us at $71k for the same low-to-low measurement and we're already right below that without having had the same magnitude of returns on the way up so it's possible the bear market lows are close. But it'll be months of grinding it out before a rise again if the cycle is intact. We rallied while the Fed QT'd which probably limited the upside. Now we're falling while they QE which might limit the downside. Edited February 5 by TwoCitiesCapital
Milu Posted February 5 Posted February 5 18 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said: Bought $500 this AM. Keeping up with the DCA I would hope not to see $25 -30k again just because we didn't get anywhere near the same euphoric highs as we've seen in prior cycles. Would've expected $200-300k to perhaps result in 70-80% decline, but wouldn't expect that from $125k. Weekly RSI is already oversold which happened before prior bear markets grinded our a bottom. 2022 bottom was ~4-5x the 2018 low. 4.5 the prior 2022 low puts us at $71k for the same low-to-low measurement and we're already right below that without having had the same magnitude of returns on the way up so it's possible the bear market lows are close. But it'll be months of grinding it out before a rise again if the cycle is intact. We rallied while the Fed QT'd which probably limited the upside. Now we're falling while they QE which might limit the downside. I’ll probably start buying some over coming weeks and months if prices stay at this level or drop further. I have a decent amount of cash to deploy, so unless any attractive stock opportunities present themselves then using this year to accumulate more bitcoin might be a good thing to do.
TwoCitiesCapital Posted February 5 Posted February 5 (edited) 27 minutes ago, Milu said: I’ll probably start buying some over coming weeks and months if prices stay at this level or drop further. I have a decent amount of cash to deploy, so unless any attractive stock opportunities present themselves then using this year to accumulate more bitcoin might be a good thing to do. Also threw some more at MSTR - look thru BTC price there is ~$53-55k given it's now at a discount. More risk there, but also more optionality to repurchase their own shares to accrue NAV. Edited February 5 by TwoCitiesCapital
SharperDingaan Posted February 5 Posted February 5 (edited) 18 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said: Bought $500 this AM. Keeping up with the DCA BTC @ USD 67,000 We will very likely unwind our pair trades around mid march, after o/g reserve reports and Q4 earnings are out, and there has been some time for M&A; doubtful that BTC will be significantly higher at that time than it is today, and our o/g could well run up another 10%+ between now and then. Should both legs deliver as hoped, we will have done extremely well. But ... the BTC repurchase will only be up to 80% of our pre trade BTC-ETF unit count; not what it was. 1) We will need to step away, as this round trip was anything but normal course business. 2) There will be industry changes after this, dry powder would be useful. 3) I'm supposed to be retired! SD Edited February 6 by SharperDingaan
Valuebo Posted February 5 Posted February 5 Sorry but don't mind If I gloat slightly at this price action. The only correct valuation for Bitcoin & Co is zero. Not 0.1, not 0.01, but zero. I'm to this day still flabbergasted when people assign this any value. Just wow.
gfp Posted February 5 Posted February 5 7 minutes ago, Valuebo said: Sorry but don't mind If I gloat slightly at this price action. The only correct valuation for Bitcoin & Co is zero. Not 0.1, not 0.01, but zero. I'm to this day still flabbergasted when people assign this any value. Just wow. The government won't even accept it to satisfy my tax liability!! I mean, right!!?
73 Reds Posted February 5 Posted February 5 16 minutes ago, Valuebo said: Sorry but don't mind If I gloat slightly at this price action. The only correct valuation for Bitcoin & Co is zero. Not 0.1, not 0.01, but zero. I'm to this day still flabbergasted when people assign this any value. Just wow. The irony is adaptation seems to be the strongest bull argument but where can you spend it? And as a payee I am often quite flexible, accepting all kind of different things in payment in lieu of cash, even including bartering of services (which conveniently escapes the tax man) but BTC? Never.
djokovic1 Posted February 5 Posted February 5 (edited) 30 minutes ago, Valuebo said: Sorry but don't mind If I gloat slightly at this price action. The only correct valuation for Bitcoin & Co is zero. Not 0.1, not 0.01, but zero. I'm to this day still flabbergasted when people assign this any value. Just wow. Yeah 100% agreed. It's just a question of when not if. Waste of time, no value creation, energy sucking. Sooner this ends the better. Wish Buffett gets the joy of seeing it go to 0 in his lifetime. Edited February 5 by djokovic1
TwoCitiesCapital Posted February 5 Posted February 5 (edited) 57 minutes ago, Valuebo said: Sorry but don't mind If I gloat slightly at this price action. The only correct valuation for Bitcoin & Co is zero. Not 0.1, not 0.01, but zero. I'm to this day still flabbergasted when people assign this any value. Just wow. Wait a second. You're going to gloat because you think BTC is worth 0 and look at a price of $65k and think that makes you right? It's still closer to its ATH of $125k then 0 my guy.... Edited February 5 by TwoCitiesCapital
djokovic1 Posted February 5 Posted February 5 @TwoCitiesCapital Price tells you nothing about value. Neither does halving cycles or technical analysis.
TwoCitiesCapital Posted February 5 Posted February 5 (edited) 17 minutes ago, 73 Reds said: where can you spend it? This has been answered dozens of times. Plenty of places accept it. Plenty of payment processors are willing to convert it at the buyer or sellers preference. So where can you spend it? Basically anywhere else thats accepts PayPal, Square, lightning network, or BTC...which is a lot of places. More places today accept it than 5-years ago and more places will accept it 5-years from now. Can you imagine poo-pooing Visa 5-years in because "nobody accepts it"? Real question is, why spend it when I have fiat to spend? Edited February 5 by TwoCitiesCapital
TwoCitiesCapital Posted February 5 Posted February 5 (edited) 3 minutes ago, djokovic1 said: @TwoCitiesCapital Price tells you nothing about value. Neither does halving cycles or technical analysis. Price tells you nothing? Ok. That seems to turn the entire fields of economics on their heads? How do you compare risks across companies? Price (i.e. spreads, rates, price of credit, etc). How do supply/demand come into equilibrium? Price. How do you know sentiment and when it changes? Price. Price carries all sorts of information - just because you disagree doesn't make it so. Edited February 5 by TwoCitiesCapital
73 Reds Posted February 5 Posted February 5 1 minute ago, TwoCitiesCapital said: This has been answered dozens of times. Plenty of places accept it. Plenty of payment processors are willing to convert it at the buyer or sellers preference. So where can you spend it? Basically anywhere else thats accepts PayPal, Square, lightning network, or BTC...which is a lot of places. More places today accept it than 5-years ago and more places will accept it 5-years from now. Can you imagine poo-pooing Visa 5-years in because "nobody accepts it"? Real question is, why spend it when I have fiat to spend? There is nothing/nowhere I spend money on that will take it. Who wants extra steps for purposes of "conversion"? And most importantly, I don't take it. But at last check, Visa is widely accepted, as is cash.
TwoCitiesCapital Posted February 5 Posted February 5 (edited) 2 minutes ago, 73 Reds said: There is nothing/nowhere I spend money on that will take it. Who wants extra steps for purposes of "conversion"? And most importantly, I don't take it. But at last check, Visa is widely accepted, as is cash. And both started out that way - being accepted every where. If they weren't, they'd have had no value! Right? And just because you're too lazy to figure out how to spend it doesn't mean you can't or that no one accepts it. The world is moving digital/online. And any online store that accepts PayPal accepts BTC. Why should we care about you or your local vendors? Edited February 5 by TwoCitiesCapital
73 Reds Posted February 5 Posted February 5 Just now, TwoCitiesCapital said: And both started out that way - being accepted every where. If they weren't, they'd have had no value! And just because you're too lazy to figure out how to spend it doesn't mean you can't or that no one accepts it. The world is moving digital/online. And any online store that accepts PayPal accepts BTC. Why should we care about you or your local vendors? You ignored my post. I never suggested digital payments and processing weren't coming. It ain't going to be BTC.
gfp Posted February 5 Posted February 5 2 minutes ago, 73 Reds said: There is nothing/nowhere I spend money on that will take it. You're in Florida right? Get on down to the Steak n Shake
TwoCitiesCapital Posted February 5 Posted February 5 Just now, gfp said: You're in Florida right? Get on down to the Steak n Shake And admit he's wrong? Never!
73 Reds Posted February 5 Posted February 5 1 minute ago, gfp said: You're in Florida right? Get on down to the Steak n Shake Actually prefer Smashburger but the dogs do like Steak&Shake.
73 Reds Posted February 5 Posted February 5 1 minute ago, TwoCitiesCapital said: And admit he's wrong? Never! No admission or denial. But the price will speak for itself.
TwoCitiesCapital Posted February 5 Posted February 5 5 minutes ago, 73 Reds said: No admission or denial. But the price will speak for itself. Agreed. djokovic1 doesn't though.
73 Reds Posted February 5 Posted February 5 1 minute ago, TwoCitiesCapital said: Agreed. djokovic1 doesn't though. Hey @gfp, doesn't that look like the makings of a long-term head and shoulders top? Oh wait a minute, must be dreaming.
TwoCitiesCapital Posted February 5 Posted February 5 (edited) 49 minutes ago, gfp said: The government won't even accept it to satisfy my tax liability!! I mean, right!!? https://davidson.house.gov/2025/11/rep-warren-davidson-introduces-the-bitcoin-for-america-act#:~:text=Warren Davidson (R-OH) introduced the,into the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. will that be what changes people's minds? Edited February 5 by TwoCitiesCapital
djokovic1 Posted February 5 Posted February 5 (edited) 20 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said: That seems to turn the entire fields of economics on their heads? How do you compare risks across companies? Price (i.e. spreads, rates, price of credit, etc). How do supply/demand come into equilibrium? Price. How do you know sentiment and when it changes? Price. Price carries all sorts of information - just because you disagree doesn't make it so. All this is useless unless you have an independent view of what an asset is worth without needing to look at the price. Edited February 5 by djokovic1
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now