GLP-1 disruption

[changegonnacome]

Great if someone with access could share the JPM report mentioned above.

[John Hjorth]

58 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

Great if someone with access could share the JPM report mentioned above.

 

What makes you think this is important?

[whatstheofficerproblem]

11 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

What makes you think this is important?

 

It is important because that is how these idiots a.k.a sell-side analysts are going to throw a barrage of ratings around downgrading every stock that they think will be adversely affected and upgrading everything that has even the slightest tailwind. And since their ratings have sway on institutional ownership, a lot of stock will become ridiculously expensive while the others reasonably cheap.

 

Also an indicator of what their 'Macro' outlook is since this is kind of a sea change and GLP-1 will cause the ripple. I still do not understand sell-side analysts, they are the only people who maintain a 'buy' rating while simultaneously decreasing their price target when the stock is going down. They do have impact on pricing and we might as well take advantage of it.

[John Hjorth]

7 minutes ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

 

It is important because that is how these idiots a.k.a sell-side analysts are going to throw a barrage of ratings around downgrading every stock that they think will be adversely affected and upgrading everything that has even the slightest tailwind. And since their ratings have sway on institutional ownership, a lot of stock will become ridiculously expensive while the others reasonably cheap.

 

Also an indicator of what their 'Macro' outlook is since this is kind of a sea change and GLP-1 will cause the ripple. I still do not understand sell-side analysts, they are the only people who maintain a 'buy' rating while simultaneously decreasing their price target when the stock is going down. They do have impact on pricing and we might as well take advantage of it.

 

I still don't get it. And I won't. Novo Nordisk A/S CEO Lars Fruergård Jørgensen is totally zipped in his public communication. Ely Lilly doesen't [even] have an approved product [in any country] yet.

 

In short, please get real and please make up your own mind, based on your own work on fundamentals, not this rubbish  and *BS* about the behavior of sell-side analysts, downgrading, tailwinds, adversily affected ownership, combined with statements about a lot of stocks will become ridicously expensive, while the others wll be [reasonably] cheap.

[changegonnacome]

45 minutes ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

They do have impact on pricing and we might as well take advantage of it.

 

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

What makes you think this is important?

 

45 minutes ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

It is important because that is how these idiots a.k.a sell-side analysts

 

Si Senior

 

One can think of these sell side reports as the consensus...or lets call it the consensus opinion being built.....most of the real money made in markets, the apha, is having a non-consensus view and being proved right......so hope that answers your question @John Hjorth 

[UK]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-06/can-ozempic-wegovy-treat-alcoholism-for-big-pharma-it-s-not-a-priority?srnd=premium-europe

[rogermunibond]

The evidence for GLP1RAs and addiction is mixed from previous generations of compounds.  And then safety with AUD patients is another thing.  Many with AUD are already underweight or normal weight so could be dangerous for them to lose more.

 

There's a good commentary in Nature Medicine on it but it might be pay walled.

 

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-023-02634-8

[CorpRaider]

Hey, Anyone know if can I drink Yerba Mate and get this benefit/an 8 pack?

[ValueArb]

On 10/25/2023 at 12:58 PM, changegonnacome said:

 

 

 

Si Senior

 

One can think of these sell side reports as the consensus...or lets call it the consensus opinion being built.....most of the real money made in markets, the apha, is having a non-consensus view and being proved right......so hope that answers your question @John Hjorth 

 

You only want to adopt a non-consensus view if the consensus view is wrong. If the market is generally efficient the consensus is right a lot more than it's wrong. So how do you know when the consensus is wrong? Only when the fundamental value of an investment is clearly and significantly different than its price. To know that you don't have to care what analysts think, or how much their ratings actually affect anything, but you do have to know the fundamental value of the investment, ie it has to lie within your circle of competence. 

[changegonnacome]

On 12/6/2023 at 12:26 PM, ValueArb said:

You only want to adopt a non-consensus view if the consensus view is wrong.

 

For sure - broadly you need to have a variant perception which by definition is non-census. Having a different view than that baked in the current price and being proved RIGHT is what matters.

 

Analysts forecasts for revenues, EPS etc. certainly help locate a broad zipcode for expectations around underlying business performance - with the assumption that those expectations are in the price. There are two components to stock price returns......underlying business performance (dollars & cents) crudely EPS but then there is perceived business quality which factors into the multiples paid by the market for that EPS.....so called exit multiple.

 

The way to make money is to have differing viewpoint on the underlying business performance and/or business quality - returns come from both and I've made money in both....separately and at the same time.

 

For example, as a case study, one of my investment Hostelworld has both working for it. Their social strategy is driving underlying business performance - revenues, FCF, EPS - relative to the past and relative most importantly to the consensus. This alone will drive the stock up. So thats one box checked - underlying business performance.

 

However, given the terminal value fears around the company when Booking.com entered the category questions were raised about the quality of those earnings - multiples came down to reflect concerns on the moat. Again in this regard a change in the perceived business quality - via social strategy re-moating the business - will likely once proved out a bit more with time - see the multiple paid on EPS re-rate higher as the consensus view on the business quality (i.e. durability of earnings) changes as the market gets more comfortable that the social strategy represents barrier to entry for other OTA's such as booking to steal market share.

 

I've crudely talked about this in the past as the kind of surprise factor - the underlying business performance surprises vs. concensus or a company's durability or moat surprises vs. concensus......you can have negative surprises too of course and we've all had them!

 

 

Edited December 7, 2023 by changegonnacome