Is Europe becoming uninvestable?

[Dalal.Holdings]

Well that is helpful. I just think it is bizarre how the EC is another layer on top of national governments and is thus seemingly far removed from the European people. I agree that in national elections in Europe there is a shift and perhaps this will eventually trickle up to the EC.
 

However the lack of responsiveness of the European Commission to the immediate issues on the ground is a troubling structural problem…perhaps they should be directly elected by the European people instead of being chosen by national leaders. It’s like Europe has one foot in the EU system and one foot in the individual national government setup instead of going all-in on one system.

 

Edited October 19 by Dalal.Holdings

[UK]

2 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

It’s like Europe has one foot in the EU system and one foot in the individual national government setup instead of going all-in on one system.

This is exactly right and one of the major problems/question still to be answered. Perhaps the dream of pro more EU forces is (or was at least) to have US like federal system one day, but I would not hold my breath for this, since major countries, especially north vs south just can not agree yet to form common household so to speak:). Draghi just issued mega alert and proposed common bonds and the next day Germany said nein (and I fully understand why). However everytime there is major crisis or pressure from the market, some small steps are being made into such direction. E.g. there was limited common bond issue during pandemic together with this talk of Europe's Hamiltonian moment, but I guess nothing again will move substantialy into this direction untill the next crisis. The good (bad) news, sooner or later there will be another opportunity:). Btw if you think about individual states, most northern states, especially ones with its own currencies (all Scandinavia ex Finland), I think they are as sound as you could get in many aspects, but also Germany, Netherlands, Ireland etc, all quite rock solid investment wise in my opinion, of course each with its own peculiarities:)

Edited October 19 by UK

[UK]

Btw this is not the thread about it, but Economist just issued special report about US economy:

 

https://www.economist.com/special-report/2024-10-19

 

'The envy of the world'

 

This one is especially good: 

 

https://www.economist.com/special-report/2024/10/14/american-productivity-still-leads-the-world

 

Edited October 20 by UK

[John Hjorth]

1 hour ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

... I just think it is bizarre how the EC is another layer on top of national governments and is thus seemingly far removed from the European people. I agree that in national elections in Europe there is a shift and perhaps this will eventually trickle up to the EC.
 

However the lack of responsiveness of the European Commission to the immediate issues on the ground is a troubling structural problem…perhaps they should be directly elected by the European people instead of being chosen by national leaders. It’s like Europe has one foot in the EU system and one foot in the individual national government setup instead of going all-in on one system.

 

This is to me so true.

 

There are delusional geriatrics involved in running Europe or European countries many places, who think they still have appeal to, and think they also can deceive the inbumbent European youth, with their out of date, obsolete *BS*.

 

*BS*  from such geriatrics, directed at a very well informed and generally well educated European youth, with the geriatrics' perception of a long gone actual reality, and their ideals, by now not any longer tied to any kind of actual reality for the youth.

 

It's never going to work onwards. [And I'm tempted to say : Thank God for that!]

 

Those delusional geriatrics have never grasped the concept of that we all have our prime time, and that the prime time for most of us ends a long time before our passing.

 

This is the definiton of anachronisms, be it Mr. Thibaut, or the incumbent ruler of also that part of Russia being located to the west of the Urals, thereby generally accepted as that part being a part of Europe.

 

-Less power to the delusional and conceited geriatrics - and more power to the youth!

Edited October 19 by John Hjorth

[james22]

 

[Sweet]

Anyone UK investors got any views on what will almost certainly be significant tax rises under Labour?  Seems to be massive capital gains increases incoming.

[thowed]

30 minutes ago, Sweet said:

Anyone UK investors got any views on what will almost certainly be significant tax rises under Labour?  Seems to be massive capital gains increases incoming.

 

I mean, nobody really knows, but the recent press has suggested it won't be quite as bad as we initially feared (human bias, possibly).  Many assumed that CGT would go back to 40% which it has been more often than not - there is a not unreasonable argument that Income & Gains should have the same rate (what that rate should be is a separate thing...) as people will always try to convert things to whichever is the lower.

 

However Starmer recently said CGT won't be 39%, so... maybe 30%?  This is on shares, property is different.

 

Only other thing is timing - my hope/guess is that it'll come in on 6 April - start of the new tax year, rather than from the Budget Day.

 

Hope that helps.  I won't go into IHT as that wouldn't really affect foreign investors anyway.

 

 

[james22]

Parker. Ever too hard upon great men, Mr. Marvel!

 

Marvel. Little men in lofty places, who throw long shadows because our sun is setting: the men so little and the places so lofty, that, casting my pebble, I only show where they stand. They would be less contented with themselves if they had obtained their preferment honestly.

 

https://quoteinvestigator.com/2024/10/14/cast-shadow/

 

https://www.mauldineconomics.com/order/plan/23130501

[Sweet]

5 hours ago, thowed said:

 

I mean, nobody really knows, but the recent press has suggested it won't be quite as bad as we initially feared (human bias, possibly).  Many assumed that CGT would go back to 40% which it has been more often than not - there is a not unreasonable argument that Income & Gains should have the same rate (what that rate should be is a separate thing...) as people will always try to convert things to whichever is the lower.

 

However Starmer recently said CGT won't be 39%, so... maybe 30%?  This is on shares, property is different.

 

Only other thing is timing - my hope/guess is that it'll come in on 6 April - start of the new tax year, rather than from the Budget Day.

 

Hope that helps.  I won't go into IHT as that wouldn't really affect foreign investors anyway.

 

 

Looks like a broad range of tax rises.  I think we are just as likely to see capital gains match income tax brackets across the board for property and shares.

 

I don’t agree with those tax rises, capital gains at 45% for the top band is ridiculous IMO.  I think they will end up bringing in significantly less revenue too.

 

I’ll seriously consider leaving the country before paying that rate.  I can move and live in American permanently if I wish to.

 

European pontificate why America is so richer than Europeans, the answers are sort of obvious.

 

Edited October 20 by Sweet

[Dinar]

1 hour ago, Sweet said:

Looks like a broad range of tax rises.  I think we are just as likely to see capital gains match income tax brackets across the board for property and shares.

 

I don’t agree with those tax rises, capital gains at 45% for the top band is ridiculous IMO.  I think they will end up bringing in significantly less revenue too.

 

I’ll seriously consider leaving the country before paying that rate.  I can move and live in American permanently if I wish to.

 

European pontificate why America is so richer than Europeans, the answers are sort of obvious.

 

Why wouldn't you move to New Zealand or Italy instead?

[Sweet]

52 minutes ago, Dinar said:

Why wouldn't you move to New Zealand or Italy instead?

Why those countries?

 

I don’t speak the language in Italy, and besides I count myself as British, I have an attachment to the country and want it to do well.  Although I have family in the US too, and likewise I have a strong attachment to the USA also.

[John Hjorth]

In a way, to me personally, reading the posts above by @thowed and @Sweet, partly triggered by questions by @Dinar is to me so enriching with regard to self-insight as a Northern European citizen.

 

Right now I'm reading 'The Logic of The War' by a Danish military [navy] captain and phd fellow [[public] funding secured!] by the name  Anders Puck Nielsen - he is gradually gaining more and more media traction here these days.

 

In his explaining of 'why are things as they actually are by now in Europe?' and 'Why are the Western Europe in this actual situation now?' his modus operandi - in all his self promotional activities - includes a very interesting concept of 'the peace dividend' - the fact that many of the European countries in budgets and spending have gradually allocated less and less - over years - on and to the defense budgets, simply milking defence budgets as some kind of cash cow, to make ends meet [in stead of suggesting unpopular actions], because politically, 'there really hasen't been an  adversary in this century', after the implosion and collapse of the Soviet Union.

 

That, combined with 'everybody' just leaning up against 'Big Brother' [USA] footing the bill on all that - in an alliance - like some cute puppy seeking attention, looking up, leaning into someones legs.

 

Eventually, reality arrives.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

For my part, I'm buying the above logic, and it is a - perhaps then again,- not so material living condition in my recent past, but I'm certainly not going to whine about paying relatively more Danish taxes going forward than in the recent past because of that.

 

While reading this, please take into consideration, that I can't rule out it may be because of my existing - built up over now many years -, intentionally - ability to pay more taxes.

 

To give a d**n about it, thereby to adopt and adapt, one has to be able to pay in the first place.

Edited October 20 by John Hjorth

[UK]

9 hours ago, Sweet said:

I’ll seriously consider leaving the country before paying that rate.

 

But is this even possible in UK case? I know I can still do this in my country, not sure about UK or US though.

 

Edit: apparently you can do it:)

 

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/exit-tax-stop-millionaires-fleeing-uk-050048734.html

 

One year in a place like Cyprus than and CGT is gone:)?

 

Edited October 21 by UK

[Sweet]

7 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

For my part, I'm buying the above logic, and it is a - perhaps then again,- not so material living condition in my recent past, but I'm certainly not going to whine about paying relatively more Danish taxes going forward than in the recent past because of that.

 

While reading this, please take into consideration, that I can't rule out it may be because of my existing - built up over now many years -, intentionally - ability to pay more taxes.

 

To give a d**n about it, thereby to adopt and adapt, one has to be able to pay in the first place.

I actually don’t mind paying extra tax, but I think it should be on income.  All of the money used in my investments were savings from income.  Taxed at source, companies I own pay tax, dividends taxed and then capital gains taxed.

 

A 40 - 45% capital gains tax is what I would likely pay depending on the year and how I disposed of assets.  That’s just too much, might as well buy an index and never try to outperform by picking individual stocks because the government will take nearly half anyway.  Compared to others on this board I’m not hugely wealth and on the younger side trying to grow my base - so these taxes matter a lot.

 

In the UK too, as some who knows and works with government regularly, the waste is enormous.  Even under the Tories taxes went up, there doesn’t seem to be any desire to cut spending and there is plenty to cut.

 

I do agree about military spending, in Europe it needs to go up to 3-4% imo.

[thowed]

I still will be very surprised if CGT goes up to 40-45% this year (though can't say never).  The press have a reasonable sense of what's going on, as politicians are always talking.  They've said not 39%, so I think 30 much more likely.  They've also said no CGT rise on second properties.

 

Anyway, it's all personal - I'm sad that the Conservatives are determined to elect an idiot as a leader, which will keep them out of power for longer, which will mean Labour will gradually get more crazy too.

 

But fingers crossed a miracle happens and they keep taxes at a reasonable rate and manage to reduce wasteage in services, reform the NHS etc. etc.

 

 

[james22]

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

8 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

 

Yep we have these types of people in American bureaucracy as well and it just goes to show you how ridiculous these overeducated types are and how they detract from the progress of human civilization

[thowed]

Can we leave out the Extreme Political stuff please - which at this point is most things Musk says - such a shame.  Thanks.  It's just too polarising and doesn't really add anything.

[Dalal.Holdings]

21 minutes ago, thowed said:

Can we leave out the Extreme Political stuff please - which at this point is most things Musk says - such a shame.  Thanks.  It's just too polarising and doesn't really add anything.

 

I'm sorry that you find the notion that government officials asking a rocket company to test if seals got hearing damage from sonic booms is "too political". This from the same government that routinely tests supersonic jets, bombs, etc without any consideration of such.

 

Sounds like Elon Musk triggers you

[Dalal.Holdings]

Here's another EU-level regulatooor trying to sue SpaceX:

 

 

 

So many Rocket Scientists among asylum-seekers. Very important issue for the Biden-Harris admin to look into. I'm sure European regulators are taking notes

[thowed]

Look, a headline about seals being kidnapped and having headphones put on them is stuff straight from a comedy skit! 

 

All I meant by 'political' is that people are taking this cartoon stuff seriously!  It's just some Twitter clickbait.

 

Anyway, nothing else to add.

[james22]

38 minutes ago, thowed said:

Look, a headline about seals being kidnapped and having headphones put on them is stuff straight from a comedy skit! 

 

All I meant by 'political' is that people are taking this cartoon stuff seriously!  It's just some Twitter clickbait.

 

Anyway, nothing else to add.

 

Do you believe it didn't happen?

[Dalal.Holdings]

55 minutes ago, thowed said:

Look, a headline about seals being kidnapped and having headphones put on them is stuff straight from a comedy skit! 

 

All I meant by 'political' is that people are taking this cartoon stuff seriously!  It's just some Twitter clickbait.

 

Anyway, nothing else to add.

 

If you agree that bureaucrats asked SpaceX to assess sonic boom impacts on seals, probability of rockets hitting whales/sharks in the Indian Ocean is comedic and very hard to believe, then we are on the same page. Unfortunately, it's true.

 

 

 

 

[Sweet]

5 hours ago, thowed said:

Can we leave out the Extreme Political stuff please - which at this point is most things Musk says - such a shame.  Thanks.  It's just too polarising and doesn't really add anything.

Thowed, I mean this with respect, but can we please stop pretending that political positions that were mainstream 25 years ago are now considered ‘extreme’.  The only thing extreme is how irritating and tedious this has all become.  
 

For example, take the old Democrat position on immigration, these words are considered ‘extreme’ by some these days:

 

Nancy: https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4713577/user-clip-2008-nancy-pelosi-secure-border

 

 

Edited October 21 by Sweet

[Sweet]

5 hours ago, thowed said:

I still will be very surprised if CGT goes up to 40-45% this year (though can't say never).  The press have a reasonable sense of what's going on, as politicians are always talking.  They've said not 39%, so I think 30 much more likely.  They've also said no CGT rise on second properties.

 

Anyway, it's all personal - I'm sad that the Conservatives are determined to elect an idiot as a leader, which will keep them out of power for longer, which will mean Labour will gradually get more crazy too.

 

But fingers crossed a miracle happens and they keep taxes at a reasonable rate and manage to reduce wasteage in services, reform the NHS etc. etc.

 

 

Under the Tories we had tax increases and the highest tax burden since the Second World War.  You seem to be of the view that the Tories need to stay where they are to get back in.  Whereas I think they need to move right.  It’s debatable as to whether we actually have a conservative party in the UK anymore.  The Tories are certainly not culturally conservative, in the past they could claim to be fiscally conservative but no longer either.  So what exactly are they?  Tories or Labour I think taxes are likely to stay near historic highs.

 

 

Edited October 21 by Sweet