Anyone Buying Lead? (For Room Temperature Superconductors)

[cameronfen]

Apparently, a room temperature superconductor has been proposed and initial replications seem to support the original paper:

 

 

 

 

LK-99 requires lead and copper.  I'm in no way an expert but probably bullish on battery power: EVs and Renewable Energy (although maybe also bullish for fusion, which is probably long long-term bearish for wind/solar).  Could benefit quantum computing and maybe even regular semiconductors (but that I'm less sure about).  Goodness, I hate how this makes every meme stock idea better.  Bearish for fossil fuel companies as well.  Maybe considering investing in lead.  I probably can't access lead futures, but it might look at miners with large exposure to lead.  Anyway, I guess it's kind of cool to think about.  Anybody else have any thoughts?  

Edited August 1, 2023 by cameronfen

[ValueArb]

That’s a computer simulated replication, not a physical replication. There is a Chinese team claiming physical replication tho.

 

If this turns out true, next step is figuring out how to efficiently manufacture and package it. Preliminary indications were that the process can only make tiny quantities.

[cameronfen]

Sure but from what I know, computer replications can indicate feasibility.  Looking at commodities, this is roughly the cost per mole of LK-99.  I'm not sure I want to buy miners to play this:

 

Phosphurus	0.30	per gram	123.88	gram per mole	1	Mole per solution	37.16	Price
Copper	0.01	per gram	63.5	gram per mole	3	Mole per solution	0.59	Price
Lead oxide	0.10	per gram	223.2	gram per mole	1	Mole per solution	22.32	Price
Lead sulfate	0.40	per gram	303	gram per mole	1	Mole per solution	122.29	Price

 

 

[rkbabang]

I've been buying and stocking up on lead and copper for years, but not for superconductors.

[cameronfen]

37 minutes ago, rkbabang said:

I've been buying and stocking up on lead and copper for years, but not for superconductors.

Ha, its your billionaire origin story.  

[CorpRaider]

I hear AT&T has some that is available.

[cameronfen]

 

43 minutes ago, CorpRaider said:

I hear AT&T has some that is available.

what do you mean?

[Pelagic]

1 hour ago, rkbabang said:

I've been buying and stocking up on lead and copper for years, but not for superconductors.

 

Convert it all into a fancy new railgun and you're set.

[ValueArb]

30 minutes ago, cameronfen said:

 

what do you mean?

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2023/07/20/verizon-and-att-the-toxic-lead-cables/?sh=2cf755d3258e

[rkbabang]

27 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2023/07/20/verizon-and-att-the-toxic-lead-cables/?sh=2cf755d3258e

 

 

Back in the mid-90s I worked for NYNEX, now Verizon, as a splice technician in Massachusetts for a summer when I was in college.  It was basically climbing poles and splicing large cables together, then installing new drop wires to the houses.  They were replacing a lot of the old cables in the city, so the linemen would hang the new ones and we'd go and splice them together then connect the houses, then the linemen would come back and remove the old cables.   They were doing the same thing downtown where everything was underground, but as a college student summer hire I wasn't allowed to work on the underground stuff as all the old cables underground were lead jacketed.  The guys working down in the manholes would get tested once per month and if their lead levels where high, they'd have to get treated by a doctor and stay out of the manholes until their lead levels were back to normal.  There were guys who had high lead levels multiple times per year.

 

[Paarslaars]

Should be better ways to play this than based on commodities no? 

 

The first application is likely to be something less sexy and more practical. Cables for instance, a way to play this could be ATKR?

[cameronfen]

55 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

Should be better ways to play this than based on commodities no? 

 

The first application is likely to be something less sexy and more practical. Cables for instance, a way to play this could be ATKR?

I’m sure there are but I don’t know enough to confidently say something like AMSC that’s popular with the retail crowd will win or lose. ATKR seems reasonable though. 

[cameronfen]

Renewables should be good before someone developed fusion with the help of superconductors.  I own some Infratil.nz which is long a good deal of renewables (although I was long before any of this stuff came out)

[Spekulatius]

Lot of weird stuff going on with this superconductor discovery. I think it's a false alarm.

 

 

[cameronfen]

This seems like the moderate position.  I don't know if it is correct: 

 

 

 

It is a superconductor at atmospheric pressure and temperatures a good deal higher than current records, but not at room temperature yet.  Lots of opportunities for further analysis in related compounds.  (maybe this is the wrong tweet, will try to find the right one).  

Edited August 2, 2023 by cameronfen

[jks327]

Have not yet heard of any peer review or replication.  Would not be the first time someone claimed this that didn't hold up.

[cameronfen]

Replications are already in progress and some are complete see the Wikipedia page:  https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/LK-99

Most of the experimental results have not replicated but theoretical replications indicate good properties. 

[cameronfen]

Here is a tweet from someone who knows way more than me that there is something here:  

 

 

[Spekulatius]

2 hours ago, cameronfen said:

This seems like the moderate position.  I don't know if it is correct: 

 

 

 

It is a superconductor at atmospheric pressure and temperatures a good deal higher than current records, but not at room temperature yet.  Lots of opportunities for further analysis in related compounds.  (maybe this is the wrong tweet, will try to find the right one).  

Some strange stuff going on there - the drop in resistance at ~260K in that one chart isn’t superconductance because there is residual resistance at that temperature. Then the residence goes up again at 225K. Makes no sense to me. Anyhow, their sample becomes superconducting only at 110k, which isn’t that different from existing superconductors.

 

I think a lot of the research looks shoddy and unconfirmed at this point as everyone races to publish. There could be something  to this , but after seeing this, I am even more skeptical. I am open to change my mind if a truly compelling research’s result get confirmed a few times at different reputable labs. I am getting cold fusion vibes here.

[cameronfen]

18 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Some strange stuff going on there - the drop in resistance at ~260K in that one chart isn’t superconductance because there is residual resistance at that temperature. Then the residence goes up again at 225K. Makes no sense to me. Anyhow, their sample becomes superconducting only at 110k, which isn’t that different from existing superconductors.

 

I think a lot of the research looks shoddy and unconfirmed at this point as everyone races to publish. There could be something  to this , but after seeing this, I am even more skeptical. I am open to change my mind if a truly compelling research’s result get confirmed a few times at different reputable labs. I am getting cold fusion vibes here.

Andrew was quick to point out, other superconductors also work at 110K but not at atmospheric pressure iirc.  Not a scientist. 

[ValueArb]

If this is real it’s going to take years before we know. It’s such an audacious claim it will require really clear replication and much better demonstrations than the original authors have been able to do.

 

But if true it’s the stuff of science fiction. There is so much energy loss in our transmission networks that it would reduce power demand and waste heat generation by incredible amounts. Would be the biggest reduction in CO2 emissions in history.

 

And then there is the advances it would bring in all sorts of areas like integrated circuits, transportation, even space flight. 

[lnofeisone]

On 8/1/2023 at 8:43 PM, cameronfen said:

Sure but from what I know, computer replications can indicate feasibility.  Looking at commodities, this is roughly the cost per mole of LK-99.  I'm not sure I want to buy miners to play this:

I had a roommate in grad school was trying to defend his master's thesis and focused on simulation. His simulation didn't produce the expected results because gravity interfered with interactions. He set gravity to 0, the simulation worked, and he defended his thesis.  The last time someone tried to claim room temperature superconductor - corbaneceous sulfur hydride - had the veracity of their publication (and specifically "user-defined" data analysis) questioned. 

 

Lastly, and Andrew Cote (despite using the term [sic] Material Science) correctly calls this out, this would need to be a single crystal. Single crystal metallurgy is extremely expensive. One of very few places where single crystal metallurgy is commercially viable is single crystal airplane blades. And metallurgy is a very mature field. In a nutshell, this is a simulation only that, if reproduced, will most likely have a niche commercial application. 

[cameronfen]

1 hour ago, ValueArb said:

If this is real it’s going to take years before we know. It’s such an audacious claim it will require really clear replication and much better demonstrations than the original authors have been able to do.

 

But if true it’s the stuff of science fiction. There is so much energy loss in our transmission networks that it would reduce power demand and waste heat generation by incredible amounts. Would be the biggest reduction in CO2 emissions in history.

 

And then there is the advances it would bring in all sorts of areas like integrated circuits, transportation, even space flight. 

 

The material is actually pretty easy to make somewhat poorly, but the replications done seem somewhat promising.  But I agree that to make these things at the purity and quality that is necessary for mass production is difficult.  I think the LK99 paper even stated that they could only get superconducting on 10% of the samples they made.  

 

I don't think it will take years to reproduce the findings though.  After all the betting markets contract for a no success is if no one can reproduce by 12/31/2023.  So I imagine the experts consider that reproduction shouldn't take close to that long.  

 

 

2 minutes ago, lnofeisone said:

I had a roommate in grad school was trying to defend his master's thesis and focused on simulation. His simulation didn't produce the expected results because gravity interfered with interactions. He set gravity to 0, the simulation worked, and he defended his thesis.  The last time someone tried to claim room temperature superconductor - corbaneceous sulfur hydride - had the veracity of their publication (and specifically "user-defined" data analysis) questioned. 

 

Lastly, and Andrew Cote (despite using the term [sic] Material Science) correctly calls this out, this would need to be a single crystal. Single crystal metallurgy is extremely expensive. One of very few places where single crystal metallurgy is commercially viable is single crystal airplane blades. And metallurgy is a very mature field. In a nutshell, this is a simulation only that, if reproduced, will most likely have a niche commercial application. 

It seems like you know the physics details better than me, but my guess is the simulations weren't as heavy handed as your friend.  a) because they don't have an interest in the result either way and b)because they probably have better skills and familiarity with this field that only comes with many years of research.  

[Spekulatius]

I personally would for the most part  discount a simulation that confirms an experiment result after the experiments result was published , especially on some field like material science. When you look into these simulations, they are often not truly derived from first principles only but use fudge factors that often can give you any result desired. It’s another matter if a simulation actually predicts and experimental result.

 

On verification, I don’t think it will take more than a few month. If we don’t see replicated results 6 month later max, this is a dud.

[cameronfen]

From the wikipedia page of LK99, you do have two replication attempts that have been successful at replicating some aspects of superconductivity.  One at temperatures of below 110 Kelvin and then a sharp drop in resistance at 230-250K (as mentioned above) and one replication showing diagmagentism, but no word on resistance yet.  Two other labs show null results but this might not be surprising considering the success rate of the original LK99 paper was only 10%.  It's crazy all the labs are in China and India.  Maybe that's where the world is heading.