Insurance Brokers (MMC, AON, AJG, WTW, BRO)

[dealraker]

9 hours ago, LC said:

I think you need to take analyst reports with a grain of salt. I don't know who/which team builds the wells reports here, and I do know @dealraker has spoken "highly" of them in the past (in quotes as I don't want to put words in his mouth)  - but on the other side of the spectrum, I have seen analyst reports as essentially trend followers (see Aecon). Stock is going up? Toss a 30% premium price target and regurgitate the bull case. Stock dropping? Probably will fall another 25% and again let's regurgitate the bear case. 

 

IMO it's highly dependent on the individual analyst but even then I would advise caution and spending the hours to do your own homework.

Amen LC.  Over the years the glaring void to ignorance of the insurance broker business has been obvious.  Wells was the first to put some real effort into grasping this business and for years the only source of bare minimal analysis.  Many large investment firms often meshed brokers and underwriters together.

 

Interestingly my long long established investment club, established in 1954 with two members many on this forum would know by name, had three broker owners as members out of 25.  Yet any bring up of brokers was always met with resounding negativity as to how volatile and unpredictable the insurance business was, thus not investing.  Even the broker owners, guys getting feverishly wealthy, knew little as to the big roll up firms.

 

I'm not an over confident investor, AJG just made a whopping large deal and BRO basically went outside their model with the most recent big deal.  So there is uncertainty in the air, stocks are falling and cut-'n-run is in play.   Rates may be soft...but don't forget to check history for decades of soft affect on broker success.

 

To me the broker business is one a 5th grader should be able to reasonably assess, yet so many freak out asking questions that seem strange to me, the answers so obvious.  

 

What's the case for the brokers today?  Hell, go find your agent and grab a beer.  I'm sure he will be willing to pay the tab and if you get him drunk he will spill the beans.

 

I was a builder for decades and for about ten years I co owned an insurance business.  Those working in the insurance business cruised through economic downturn and for agents and brokers it was party time.  Builders flirted with bankruptcy!

 

 

Edited December 7, 2025 by dealraker

[dealraker]

On 12/5/2025 at 11:51 PM, WayWardCloud said:

This podcast is just 100% AI right? Any particular nuggets of information you liked?

I listened to these on AJG and BRO as I walked a on a couple of days.  Yes largely AI but in many ways a good primer.  But oh my, as to earnings and valuation they are taking an accuracy pass.   

[Xerxes]

On 12/5/2025 at 11:51 PM, WayWardCloud said:

This podcast is just 100% AI right? Any particular nuggets of information you liked?

definitely. I just listened to one on the Swedish company. The pod drop rate is also daily. No human can do this. 
 

So now Alphabet AI podcast product will be dominating all the lower-tier human podcast. Culling the field for the high quality human pods with franchise. 

[Junior R]

Quote

Brown & Brown, Inc. acquires the assets of J. Kevin Campbell Agency

 

[dealraker]

AJ Gallagher had a detailed conference call yesterday for those interested. 

 

Edited December 17, 2025 by dealraker

[coffeecaninvestor]

More adjustments to price targets rolling in. I’ve been continuing to add to both BRO and AJG weekly 

[coffeecaninvestor]

1 hour ago, dealraker said:

AJ Gallagher had a detailed conference call yesterday for those interested. 

 

Do you have a link? I didn’t see it listed on the IR website. 
 

[villainx]

49 minutes ago, coffeecaninvestor said:

Do you have a link? I didn’t see it listed on the IR website. 
 

 

https://investor.ajg.com/events-and-presentations/event-details/2025/Arthur-J-Gallagher--Co-Investor-Meeting-with-Management-2025-snrP7Pbabw/default.aspx

 

 

[longterminvestor]

Howden just poached 200 people from Brown.  things are spicy

 

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/imtreyshields_howden-just-pulled-off-the-biggest-heist-activity-7408246245443555328-KVmO?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAAAA3fvwBg-mJgrhgapvPP7PwTz-0KlJlnmA

 

https://www.insuranceinsiderus.com/article/2fqq13prblqsvndy1z5kw/all-topics/talent/howden-continues-poaching-blitz-with-200-brown-brown-raid?zephr_sso_ott=nmx8NG

[dealraker]

Worth watching related to brokers:

 

https://www.sicafletcher.com/leaders-legends-ed-bowler?utm_medium=email&utm_source=mailchimp&utm_campaign=l-l-podcast-bowler-jan-2026&utm_term=podcast-subs&utm_content=podcast-image

Edited January 6 by dealraker

[tnathan]

Anyone have thoughts on new "AI native" insurance brokerage startups I've seen popping up (https://www.harperinsure.com/)?  My understanding is that while speed and process is important to the end customer, you can't effectively pass on lower prices from operational efficiencies because price is paid by the carrier, which should limit the competitive threat of AI native startups. Agree? Disagree?

[villainx]

Someone said this was an interesting article regarding the Howden vs Brown, now legal fight.

 

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/naughty-very-nice-brandon-schuh-mjs1c/

 

Thinks through implications of trial win and - if any - damages.

[longterminvestor]

16 hours ago, tnathan said:

Anyone have thoughts on new "AI native" insurance brokerage startups I've seen popping up (https://www.harperinsure.com/)?  My understanding is that while speed and process is important to the end customer, you can't effectively pass on lower prices from operational efficiencies because price is paid by the carrier, which should limit the competitive threat of AI native startups. Agree? Disagree?

Harper and others are just doing what everyone else is doing in AI writ large.  They are calling themselves "AI Native" while doing it manually for now until AI actually can provide real value for the buyer and seller.  Harper is just a broker with a slick intake website.  Period.  Nothing proprietary with what they have.  Harper, and others, could be "working on" something cool in future, but as of now - they are just doing it the old fashion way.  "AI in the streets, phone calls/emails in the sheets".  hahaha

 

My opinion, AI investments will come from carriers.  There are only a few brokers who have the balance sheet to truly "invest in" AI.  

[coffeecaninvestor]

25 minutes ago, longterminvestor said:

Harper and others are just doing what everyone else is doing in AI writ large.  They are calling themselves "AI Native" while doing it manually for now until AI actually can provide real value for the buyer and seller.  Harper is just a broker with a slick intake website.  Period.  Nothing proprietary with what they have.  Harper, and others, could be "working on" something cool in future, but as of now - they are just doing it the old fashion way.  "AI in the streets, phone calls/emails in the sheets".  hahaha

 

My opinion, AI investments will come from carriers.  There are only a few brokers who have the balance sheet to truly "invest in" AI.  

From a health insurance perspective (which I have experience) I think from a carrier perspective low hanging fruit is on the middle market size business where the data inputs are really limited and uniform. I think it is begging for the process to be streamlined, and to remove human interaction where so much is of business is lost, and time wasted.

 

Some of the larger brokers like Mercer and Aon I think are probably trying to do their own thing. They have their own websites  that we have to respond to large RFP's in that aggregate data. I am sure on their end they want to be able to analyze competing bids faster using AI, but it is clunky from an end user standpoint, and not sure it has an AI functionality yet. 

[dealraker]

For your info or amusement whichever applies: Wells Fargo as I've written is a source I follow as to their reports on insurance brokers.  I'd not say I use them for capital decisions as basically I haven't added or subtracted in a meaningful way to the brokers since 1994, but I do read their stuff as it has been reasonably accurate for a long-long time.

 

So recently they have repeatedly ever-so-slightly lowered earnings predictions for the brokers while more significantly lowering price predictions.  They have cut AJG, Willis, MMC, but mostly BRO who they see as going through a rough period given the producer turmoil.  There's literally massive cuts to the future price of BRO throughout the analyst community, something that hasn't happened ever that I'm aware of.

 

They've raised their view of Baldwin a tad.

 

It is sort of interesting that we discuss what could lessen the success of brokers and it is always outside entities and developments.  What seems to be most interesting these days is what is happening within the current business model, maybe a bit of destruction within.

[Castanza]

On 1/11/2026 at 10:39 PM, villainx said:

Someone said this was an interesting article regarding the Howden vs Brown, now legal fight.

 

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/naughty-very-nice-brandon-schuh-mjs1c/

 

Thinks through implications of trial win and - if any - damages.

 

Will be interesting to see how this plays out. Looks like the whole field is suing them and so far judges have been in favor of the field...what a mess 

 

 

[MikeL]

@dealraker, would it possible to share Wells Fargo's updated price target the these insurance brokers?

 

Thanks in advance.

Edited January 14 by MikeL

[dealraker]

2 hours ago, MikeL said:

@dealraker, would it possible to share Wells Fargo's updated price target the these insurance brokers?

 

Thanks in advance.

AON $448

AJG $311  down from $360 or so at one time

BWIN $27

BRO $84 down from $125 or so at one time

MRSH (symbol changed from MMC) $199   down from $224 or so

RYAN $63

WTW $366  down from higher, can't remember the range

 

 

 

[MikeL]

Very much appreciated!

[benchmark]

7 hours ago, dealraker said:

AON $448

AJG $311  down from $360 or so at one time

BWIN $27

BRO $84 down from $125 or so at one time

MRSH (symbol changed from MMC) $199   down from $224 or so

RYAN $63

WTW $366  down from higher, can't remember the range

 

 

 

https://www.reinsurancene.ws/risk-management-platform-withcoverage-raises-42m-in-series-b-financing/  If this really works as advertised, then the insurance broker business will see some margin compression at least. 

[dwy000]

2 hours ago, benchmark said:

https://www.reinsurancene.ws/risk-management-platform-withcoverage-raises-42m-in-series-b-financing/  If this really works as advertised, then the insurance broker business will see some margin compression at least. 

I think the same argument was made when the same guys started Opendoor. Revolutionize the industry.  From the looks this one appears to be "we use some AI"

[dealraker]

15 hours ago, MikeL said:

Very much appreciated!

Wells lines up its overall insurance thoughts often, top ideas in the shorter term.  I do not find this very useful however.  This will post crazy, just use the symbols as a first choice down to 17.  The list goes much further, I just post the top part.  For what it is worth, I am absolutely amazed, given the credit card 10% limit thing, that we have not had an executive order on insurance rates, surely the most powerful powerful election adjuster available.  I mention that for anyone of any political slant investing heavily in this industry - if you are shorter term stock price sensitive as I could see literally massive stock price movement from such.

 

AON Insurance Broker 1 1 - AON has seen strong organic growth in 2025 which we expect to continue in 2026 and do not think is factored into its current valuation.
AJG Insurance Broker 2 2 - Will see a meaningful expansion in geographic exposure from its acquisition of Willis Re, seeing strong organic revenue growth, and now with the accretion from the AssuredPartners deal.
RYAN Insurance Broker 3 3 - Recent pullback provides attractive entry point in broker reporting organic growth in excess of the retail brokers.
WTW Insurance Broker 4 4 - WTW's valuation should expand as the company continues to post better organic revenue growth and improving margins within R&B.
AXS P&C Commercial 5 5 - AXS has taken steps to reduce the volatility of the company, and company is less exposed to property rate declines than other (due to lack of reinsurance business).
HG P&C Diversified 6 6 - HG trades at the cheapest valuation among our P&C coverage, yet the shares have less reserve risk (due to loss covers) and are exposed to areas of the market seeing good increases.
GL Life Insurer 7 7 - GL's earnings and ROE are steady and predictable, and we think the company has longer-term leverage to GLP-1 drugs that is being overlooked.
UNM Life Insurer 8 8 - We think the market is underappreciating both the momentum in UNM's core businesses and generation and flexibility, as well as incremental LTC risk transfers.
HIG P&C Diversified 9 9 - HIG should see its valuation expand as the company delivers on its ROE target (which is anchored to 15%).
AFG P&C Specialty 10 New Low property exposure and product diversification should enable AFG to see stable margins in a softer market, which is a similar dynamic we saw last soft market when AFG shares outperformed.
KNSL P&C Specialty 11 New KNSL's industry leading margins should allow it to remain competitive in a softer market and its proprietary tech stack that enables higher quote / binding ratios should be able to maintain strong conversion even if 
submission flow slows. With E&S only 13% of total P&C share, KNSL is well positioned to grow its small share of 1.9% in a growing TAM.
ACGL P&C Commercial 12 10 Down P&C results have always been best in class in our view and Arch is positioned to be a beneficiary of growth opportunities in the insurance and reinsurance market. Furthermore, mortgage insurance results continue to be 
strong which results in the company having three businesses that are all positioned to deliver double-digit returns.
MET Life Insurer 13 11 Down Consistent earnings profile, strong group benefits franchise, and less macro sensitivity vs. some other life insurers.
EQH Life Insurer 14 12 Down EQH is trading at an inexpensive valuation on a consolidated basis and is trading even less expensive after removing the value of its ownership in AllianceBernstein (AB).
CRBG Life Insurer 15 13 Down CRBG is a ROE improvement and capital return story as the company is targeting to return 60-65% of adjusted earnings each year and looking to improve its ROE by 300bps over the next couple of years to its 12-14% 
target.
ASIC P&C Specialty 16 14 Down As Ategrity posts strong top-line growth, we expect the valuation of the shares to expand closer to the specialty insurance peer group, which trades at the highest multiples within the insurance sector.
RGA Life Insurer 17 15 Down RGA has a solid history of compounding book value per share (especially ex. a pandemic), and shares are trading at an attractive valuation, in our view. 

 

 

[dwy000]

2 hours ago, dealraker said:

Wells lines up its overall insurance thoughts often, top ideas in the shorter term.  I do not find this very useful however.  This will post crazy, just use the symbols as a first choice down to 17.  The list goes much further, I just post the top part.  For what it is worth, I am absolutely amazed, given the credit card 10% limit thing, that we have not had an executive order on insurance rates, surely the most powerful powerful election adjuster available.  I mention that for anyone of any political slant investing heavily in this industry - if you are shorter term stock price sensitive as I could see literally massive stock price movement from such.

 

AON Insurance Broker 1 1 - AON has seen strong organic growth in 2025 which we expect to continue in 2026 and do not think is factored into its current valuation.
AJG Insurance Broker 2 2 - Will see a meaningful expansion in geographic exposure from its acquisition of Willis Re, seeing strong organic revenue growth, and now with the accretion from the AssuredPartners deal.
RYAN Insurance Broker 3 3 - Recent pullback provides attractive entry point in broker reporting organic growth in excess of the retail brokers.
WTW Insurance Broker 4 4 - WTW's valuation should expand as the company continues to post better organic revenue growth and improving margins within R&B.
AXS P&C Commercial 5 5 - AXS has taken steps to reduce the volatility of the company, and company is less exposed to property rate declines than other (due to lack of reinsurance business).
HG P&C Diversified 6 6 - HG trades at the cheapest valuation among our P&C coverage, yet the shares have less reserve risk (due to loss covers) and are exposed to areas of the market seeing good increases.
GL Life Insurer 7 7 - GL's earnings and ROE are steady and predictable, and we think the company has longer-term leverage to GLP-1 drugs that is being overlooked.
UNM Life Insurer 8 8 - We think the market is underappreciating both the momentum in UNM's core businesses and generation and flexibility, as well as incremental LTC risk transfers.
HIG P&C Diversified 9 9 - HIG should see its valuation expand as the company delivers on its ROE target (which is anchored to 15%).
AFG P&C Specialty 10 New Low property exposure and product diversification should enable AFG to see stable margins in a softer market, which is a similar dynamic we saw last soft market when AFG shares outperformed.
KNSL P&C Specialty 11 New KNSL's industry leading margins should allow it to remain competitive in a softer market and its proprietary tech stack that enables higher quote / binding ratios should be able to maintain strong conversion even if 
submission flow slows. With E&S only 13% of total P&C share, KNSL is well positioned to grow its small share of 1.9% in a growing TAM.
ACGL P&C Commercial 12 10 Down P&C results have always been best in class in our view and Arch is positioned to be a beneficiary of growth opportunities in the insurance and reinsurance market. Furthermore, mortgage insurance results continue to be 
strong which results in the company having three businesses that are all positioned to deliver double-digit returns.
MET Life Insurer 13 11 Down Consistent earnings profile, strong group benefits franchise, and less macro sensitivity vs. some other life insurers.
EQH Life Insurer 14 12 Down EQH is trading at an inexpensive valuation on a consolidated basis and is trading even less expensive after removing the value of its ownership in AllianceBernstein (AB).
CRBG Life Insurer 15 13 Down CRBG is a ROE improvement and capital return story as the company is targeting to return 60-65% of adjusted earnings each year and looking to improve its ROE by 300bps over the next couple of years to its 12-14% 
target.
ASIC P&C Specialty 16 14 Down As Ategrity posts strong top-line growth, we expect the valuation of the shares to expand closer to the specialty insurance peer group, which trades at the highest multiples within the insurance sector.
RGA Life Insurer 17 15 Down RGA has a solid history of compounding book value per share (especially ex. a pandemic), and shares are trading at an attractive valuation, in our view. 

 

 

Has Brown dropped out of their Top 17?

[tnathan]

11 hours ago, benchmark said:

https://www.reinsurancene.ws/risk-management-platform-withcoverage-raises-42m-in-series-b-financing/  If this really works as advertised, then the insurance broker business will see some margin compression at least. 

I know these guys personally -- smart, I think they'll do well

[dealraker]

2 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

Has Brown dropped out of their Top 17?

Surprisingly Wells has really soured in the short run on Brown citing lowest (of the brokers) organic growth.  BRO is way-way down on their insurance ranking list for the shorter term.

 

I'm mentioning these reports but to be honest it seems to me there's been more disruption in analysts views on brokers than at any time I can remember.  To me it seems they've gone from overly optimistic to a bit too negative. With the exception of the Elliott Spitzer contingent commission era this is the most negative I've seen analysts as to the brokers.