India

[RichardGibbons]

The funny thing is that Canada's response to the tariffs has basically been the same thing--rules being replaced with politicians capriciously picking winners and losers (when it should have been just removal of a massive number of rules.)

 

I do wonder if this is a normal thing in the natural life cycle of nations. Government becoming huge and onerous, followed by the powerful abandoning the ideals that spawned the country's success so that they could tear apart the rotting carcass of the nation for their own benefit.

[Trophicdynamics]

I'm extremely bullish on India. I did study a fair bit of developmental economics and have been visiting India since the early 1990's. India has been transforming from a economic backwater to a great power status over that time, and I strongly believe it will transform from a great power now to a Superpower by 2060. I believe American economic hegemony is in decline (from the top and bottom) and it is only a matter of time before this will be evident to the world. Economic hegemonies are established from the top and the bottom. From the top means having the largest aggregate GDP. Having the largest GDP means that USA has large thunen world centers/core which create economic growth and dynamism. With Global periperhery (regions and countries) orienting there economies towards feeding raw inputs to the cores. USA has had the largest and most dynamic cores the world over since 1945, these cores are being challenged by new Asian mega regions (pearl River Delta, etc). USA economic hegemony is also declining from below which relates to having one of the highest total factor productivity and technological lead over competitors. China has been busy stealing tech and know how from the west, similar to what the west did to Asia during colonial times, if they won't share the technology/IP then steal it is the mantra. Out last 20 centuries 17 have been dominated by India or China, and the world is going to return to the World's Natural powers in this century. 

 

Why India, because when democracies develop there economies they do so in a messy manner while simultaneously tackling all issues, corruption, law & order, low productivity, low skill labor force, infrastructure, capital mobilization/formation issues, unemployment, etc. Although democracies take longer to resolve issues, accurate information is available for decision makers, transparency is greater than other systems, institutions help to maintain the internal balance of power. India has some additional features such as a dominant religion which accepts that things will change and puts knowledge at the level of divine, a reverance for capitalism, largest & youngest population in the world.

[gfp]

7 minutes ago, Haryana said:

https://techstory.in/iphone-17-series-to-be-made-in-india-apple-expands-manufacturing-beyond-china/

iPhone 17 Series to Be ‘Made in India’

Apple is gearing up for one of its most significant shifts in global manufacturing strategy with the upcoming iPhone 17 series. For the first time, the Cupertino-based tech giant will produce not only its regular iPhones but also its most premium models, the iPhone 17 Pro and iPhone 17 Pro Max in India.

 

It's not the first time.  My iPhone 16 Pro Max was made in India.

[Spekulatius]

 

[UK]

https://archive.is/jhDgv

The ascent of India’s economy

It has benefited from a slice of luck, a commitment to economic reform and a shove from Donald Trump

[gfp]

7 hours ago, UK said:

https://archive.is/jhDgv

The ascent of India’s economy

It has benefited from a slice of luck, a commitment to economic reform and a shove from Donald Trump

 

Thanks for the link UK - I thought that was a pretty good overview of current conditions.

 

Allowing women to work after dark!  Who woulda thought

 

(I mentioned this to my wife and her response was, "as long as they don't get raped on their way home" - seems India still has a bad reputation on that front.)

Edited January 24 by gfp

[DooDiligence]

I just watched this film. People, beliefs, reality, ethics, survival, markets. We watch in comfort, and claim we're being taken advantage of, while the world toils.

 

Mumbai fishermen Rakesh and Ganesh are inheritors of the great Koli knowledge system—a way to harvest the sea by following the moon and the tides. Rakesh has kept faith in traditional fishing methods while Ganesh has embraced technology. Against the Tide is the tale of two men’s bond fractured by the weight of a changing world and a sea threatened by climate change. A Co-Presentation with CAAM (Center for Asian American Media).

 

https://www.pbs.org/pov/films/againstthetide/

[UK]

5 hours ago, gfp said:

 

Thanks for the link UK - I thought that was a pretty good overview of current conditions.

 

Allowing women to work after dark!  Who woulda thought

Seems Prem was very right on Modi. Maybe getting that bank would not be so bad:)

[whatstheofficerproblem]

9 hours ago, gfp said:

(I mentioned this to my wife and her response was, "as long as they don't get raped on their way home" - seems India still has a bad reputation on that front.)

 

I am seriously puzzled at this narrative. Have folks who say this ever been to the country? Most 'urban' areas are filled with wannabe westerners men & women who are up all night party, go to pubs and what not. I'm not gonna judge them for it. Plenty of women also work night shifts. Rural areas might be a different story, but I doubt women feel safe working nights in any backwater towns in the US as well.

 

Your wife's comment actually prove something - that is India has a very bad PR.

 

Another problem with India which I find frustrating is that people want to 'save nature' & 'protect forests' but also want urbanization, how does that even work. People want development, yet oppose it & then go vote for freebies. Take a look at how much the Indian govt spends on it's industries vs freebies.

 

A shit ton of money going to 'Ladli behen yojna' etc etc. But alas, such is the problem with democracy. It is after all democracy & not meritocracy so people can elect an imbecile if they choose to. People whine about how the taxes in India are so high but facilities are worse than 'Africa'. The subtle racism of that statement aside, what else can the govt even do? Over 95% of the country doesn't even pay any income tax. So the only way left to collect anything is through passthrough taxes like GSTs etc & even when collected most of this will go to subsidies .

 

The absolute cherry on top is, rich kids in their urban homes with air conditioners have such an inferiority complex that they will go onto reddit and validate racists just so they can get a pat on the back. 'Look master, I'm not like the other Indians teehee'. This once again ties into the PR problem.

 

And don't even get me started on the courts & bureaucracy. Apologies for the rant, but the unfortunate part about India as a country is that she has way too many enemies on the inside.

[gfp]

1 hour ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

 

I am seriously puzzled at this narrative. Have folks who say this ever been to the country? Most 'urban' areas are filled with wannabe westerners men & women who are up all night party, go to pubs and what not. I'm not gonna judge them for it. Plenty of women also work night shifts. Rural areas might be a different story, but I doubt women feel safe working nights in any backwater towns in the US as well.

 

Your wife's comment actually prove something - that is India has a very bad PR.

 

Another problem with India which I find frustrating is that people want to 'save nature' & 'protect forests' but also want urbanization, how does that even work. People want development, yet oppose it & then go vote for freebies. Take a look at how much the Indian govt spends on it's industries vs freebies.

 

A shit ton of money going to 'Ladli behen yojna' etc etc. But alas, such is the problem with democracy. It is after all democracy & not meritocracy so people can elect an imbecile if they choose to. People whine about how the taxes in India are so high but facilities are worse than 'Africa'. The subtle racism of that statement aside, what else can the govt even do? Over 95% of the country doesn't even pay any income tax. So the only way left to collect anything is through passthrough taxes like GSTs etc & even when collected most of this will go to subsidies .

 

The absolute cherry on top is, rich kids in their urban homes with air conditioners have such an inferiority complex that they will go onto reddit and validate racists just so they can get a pat on the back. 'Look master, I'm not like the other Indians teehee'. This once again ties into the PR problem.

 

And don't even get me started on the courts & bureaucracy. Apologies for the rant, but the unfortunate part about India as a country is that she has way too many enemies on the inside.

 

Yeah, My wife is not an expert on India by any stretch (although she has many Indian and Indian/American friends) but one thing she knows about is famous stories of women getting gang raped on the bus.  I guess in Delhi.  That may have happened only once for all I know, but it went world famous and it sticks with people.  Women are raped every day in the USA but usually not gang raped on the public bus so it sticks in peoples' mind

[Munger_Disciple]

35 minutes ago, gfp said:

 

Yeah, My wife is not an expert on India by any stretch (although she has many Indian and Indian/American friends) but one thing she knows about is famous stories of women getting gang raped on the bus.  I guess in Delhi.  That may have happened only once for all I know, but it went world famous and it sticks with people.  Women are raped every day in the USA but usually not gang raped on the public bus so it sticks in peoples' mind

 

Southern India is very safe for women (single or otherwise). Almost never hear of horrible incidents. Northern India has more iffy reputation. Interestingly, south Indian states as a group have higher GDP per capita the northern states. 

[UK]

3 hours ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

 

I am seriously puzzled at this narrative. Have folks who say this ever been to the country? Most 'urban' areas are filled with wannabe westerners men & women who are up all night party, go to pubs and what not. I'm not gonna judge them for it. Plenty of women also work night shifts. Rural areas might be a different story, but I doubt women feel safe working nights in any backwater towns in the US as well.

 

Your wife's comment actually prove something - that is India has a very bad PR.

 

Another problem with India which I find frustrating is that people want to 'save nature' & 'protect forests' but also want urbanization, how does that even work. People want development, yet oppose it & then go vote for freebies. Take a look at how much the Indian govt spends on it's industries vs freebies.

 

A shit ton of money going to 'Ladli behen yojna' etc etc. But alas, such is the problem with democracy. It is after all democracy & not meritocracy so people can elect an imbecile if they choose to. People whine about how the taxes in India are so high but facilities are worse than 'Africa'. The subtle racism of that statement aside, what else can the govt even do? Over 95% of the country doesn't even pay any income tax. So the only way left to collect anything is through passthrough taxes like GSTs etc & even when collected most of this will go to subsidies .

 

The absolute cherry on top is, rich kids in their urban homes with air conditioners have such an inferiority complex that they will go onto reddit and validate racists just so they can get a pat on the back. 'Look master, I'm not like the other Indians teehee'. This once again ties into the PR problem.

 

And don't even get me started on the courts & bureaucracy. Apologies for the rant, but the unfortunate part about India as a country is that she has way too many enemies on the inside.

 

I had been twice in India (North, South), backpacking, while younger. While I definitely had not seen the country in the white only ("so spiritual, people are happy/smiling  no matter what", really? tell this a family of 8, living on the street:(), at the time we did not felt very unsafe or anything like this. For me it was beautiful, fascinating country, with so many extremes, good or bad. And I do not want to start naming other countries (and insulting other people:)), and usually you do not want to go against Munger:), but from all EM countries, o perhaps even from BRICS, given the opportunities and changes happening, I personally am most/very bullish on India and so would rather owned bank here:)

 

Edited January 25 by UK

[whatstheofficerproblem]

2 hours ago, Munger_Disciple said:

Southern India is very safe for women (single or otherwise). Almost never hear of horrible incidents. Northern India has more iffy reputation. Interestingly, south Indian states as a group have higher GDP per capita the northern states. 

 

Well, I'm from southern India, we've had a case like the Delhi one gfp mentioned as well. This is another fault line that is being exploited these days. People from the south hating on their fellow countrymen for validation online. Not realizing that the racists aren't laughing with them but at them. End of the day you'll still be Indian and they don't seem to understand that.

 

The A's plan to balkanize India is materializing in real time.

[Munger_Disciple]

1 hour ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

 

Well, I'm from southern India, we've had a case like the Delhi one gfp mentioned as well. This is another fault line that is being exploited these days. People from the south hating on their fellow countrymen for validation online. Not realizing that the racists aren't laughing with them but at them. End of the day you'll still be Indian and they don't seem to understand that.

 

The A's plan to balkanize India is materializing in real time.

Well my comment about safety is partly based on the experience of my friend’s daughter who travelled alone in India. But be a conspiracy theorist and ignore the facts. 

[This2ShallPass]

4 hours ago, gfp said:

 

Yeah, My wife is not an expert on India by any stretch (although she has many Indian and Indian/American friends) but one thing she knows about is famous stories of women getting gang raped on the bus.  I guess in Delhi.  That may have happened only once for all I know, but it went world famous and it sticks with people.  Women are raped every day in the USA but usually not gang raped on the public bus so it sticks in peoples' mind

True, awful news sticks in memory for a long time and very hard to change. 

 

If you look at data, 700M women and on the low end 30% participate in the labor force, so 200M working women in India. All have been living and working with no issues. Not to minimize the really bad cases that have happened. 

 

3 hours ago, Munger_Disciple said:

 

Southern India is very safe for women (single or otherwise). Almost never hear of horrible incidents. Northern India has more iffy reputation. Interestingly, south Indian states as a group have higher GDP per capita the northern states. 

This is also factually correct, for safety in general. 

 

[whatstheofficerproblem]

30 minutes ago, Munger_Disciple said:

Well my comment about safety is partly based on the experience of my friend’s daughter who travelled alone in India. But be a conspiracy theorist and ignore the facts. 

 

Truly unfortunate she had to experience that. Re: Conspiracy theory, cue US foreign policy.

[Hektor]

8 hours ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

The A's plan to balkanize India is materializing in real time.

After reading Dalrymple’s Anarchy, I felt India always has been a kingdom of kingdoms, miraculously held together in the modern times!

[Lazarus]

I'm considering FIH.TO or else a simple India index fund (probably FID, for broad exposure). 

 

What's the board's view on FIH?

[Hektor]

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/details-eu-india-trade-deal-tariffs-quotas-market-access-2026-01-27/

 

India and the European Union have concluded negotiations on a long-awaited free trade agreement. The pact paves the way for freer trade in goods and services between the 27-nation EU and India, together representing a market of roughly 2 billion people.

[Hektor]

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/02/trump-india-trade-deal-tariffs.html

 

Trump says U.S. and India reached trade deal, will lower tariffs immediately

[rogermunibond]

I'm hoping for a lot more Indian mangos in US groceries 

[UK]

https://archive.is/h38rR

India may be about to become one of the world’s most open economies

New trade deals could make it a manufacturing powerhouse, reckons Arvind Subramanian