Hektor Posted February 28 Posted February 28 https://fortune.com/asia/2024/02/26/jack-ma-vs-ken-griffin-ant-group-outbids-citadel-credit-suisse-china-investment-bank-ubs/
juno323 Posted February 28 Posted February 28 2 hours ago, Hektor said: Pay cuts! Sound like what happens in a capitalist system. "her husband’s salary and bonus as a bank worker were slashed in half over the past two years" "After her husband’s pay at a tech company was cut last year, quitting piano seemed the obvious choice." Probably related to this article on Bloomberg.. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-26/xi-crackdown-on-hedonistic-bankers-fuels-industry-brain-drain
Hektor Posted February 28 Posted February 28 18 minutes ago, juno323 said: Probably related to this article on Bloomberg.. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-26/xi-crackdown-on-hedonistic-bankers-fuels-industry-brain-drain
formthirteen Posted February 29 Posted February 29 South Korea doesn't have it's own thread, so posting it in the China thread:
james22 Posted February 29 Posted February 29 Red China Isn’t ‘Back’ Under Xi Jinping. It Never Went Away https://time.com/6758445/red-china-xi-jinping/
Hektor Posted February 29 Posted February 29 3 hours ago, james22 said: Red China Isn’t ‘Back’ Under Xi Jinping. It Never Went Away https://time.com/6758445/red-china-xi-jinping/
Castanza Posted March 1 Posted March 1 (edited) No dog in the fight but an interesting podcast. Bass is a bit sensationalist, but there is some good info scattered throughout. Hong Kong markets down 50% since Chinese takeover. China grew GDP by 500% over the last 15 years yet if you invested in the Shanghai Schenzen 300 index you would have lost 1/3rd of your money. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/we-study-billionaires-the-investors-podcast-network/id928933489?i=1000647605114 Edited March 1 by Castanza
Luke Posted March 2 Posted March 2 Btw is Musk now a CCP member? OpenAi received capital to "serve humanity"? LOL!
treasurehunt Posted March 2 Posted March 2 1 hour ago, Luca said: Btw is Musk now a CCP member? OpenAi received capital to "serve humanity"? LOL! Claiming that OpenAI received capital to serve humanity doesn't sound farfetched to me. OpenAI was founded in 2015 as a nonprofit. Their website says their mission "is to ensure that artificial general intelligence benefits all of humanity."
Hektor Posted March 2 Posted March 2 2 hours ago, Luca said: Btw is Musk now a CCP member? OpenAi received capital to "serve humanity"? LOL!
Luke Posted March 2 Posted March 2 2 hours ago, treasurehunt said: Claiming that OpenAI received capital to serve humanity doesn't sound farfetched to me. OpenAI was founded in 2015 as a nonprofit. Their website says their mission "is to ensure that artificial general intelligence benefits all of humanity." I thought free market capitalism serves all of humanity and that musk as a libertarian is all for that?
Luke Posted March 2 Posted March 2 And why is tesla "for profit" if he always claims his goal is to help humanity and bring us to mars?
formthirteen Posted March 2 Posted March 2 (edited) 1 hour ago, Luca said: And why is tesla "for profit" if he always claims his goal is to help humanity and bring us to mars? That's how he plans on doing it by taking money from unproductive parts of the economy (car manufacturers, boeing, etc) and investing in technology that takes us to Mars. He wants the AI of OpenAI to be open-sourced for the benefit of humanity and for MSFT not to be the greatest benefactor; both are very valid reasons. This is political and a power struggle, the dirtiest tricks best lawyers will win. Part of the reason Sam Altman almost lost control over OpenAI for straying away from the original mission statement and seeking to profit, in the end the employees chose Altman instead of the ”mission statement”: Quote OpenAI is a non-profit artificial intelligence research company. Our goal is to advance digital intelligence in the way that is most likely to benefit humanity as a whole, unconstrained by a need to generate financial return. Since our research is free from financial obligations, we can better focus on a positive human impact. If the AI is not open-source it's difficult to know what agenda it's driving ”to benefit humanity as a whole”. It's already clear that OpenAI is self-censoring and rewriting your questions behind the scenes. Ask OpenAI how to build ”The Bomb” and it will say ”I can't help you”. Perplexity.ai give's you an answer: Spoiler TSLA has open-sourced it's patents: https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-our-patent-are-belong-you Quote Technology leadership is not defined by patents, which history has repeatedly shown to be small protection indeed against a determined competitor, but rather by the ability of a company to attract and motivate the world’s most talented engineers. We believe that applying the open source philosophy to our patents will strengthen rather than diminish Tesla’s position in this regard. I'm assuming he doesn't like MSFT and OpenAI's board: Quote Elon Musk left the board of OpenAI in 2018 after a failed attempt to take over the company. Musk proposed to lead OpenAI himself, feeling it was lagging behind Google in AI development, but the founders rejected his plan. This rejection led to Musk stepping down from the board and withdrawing a significant donation, citing a conflict of interest with Tesla. Musk later expressed concerns about OpenAI's impact on society and disagreed with the direction the company was taking, leading to his departure and subsequent criticism of OpenAI's transformation from an open-source non-profit to a closed-source, profit-driven entity controlled by Microsoft Let the best lawyers win. Edited March 2 by formthirteen
Ulti Posted March 3 Posted March 3 https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2024/03/04/inside-north-koreas-forced-labor-program-in-china maybe slightly off topic; but disgusting none the less
james22 Posted March 3 Posted March 3 How China strangled its golden goose – and paid a terrible price Under Xi’s tightening grip, Hong Kong’s days as a global deal-making hub are numbered https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/02/29/hong-kong-turn-back-on-capitalism-taylor-swift-leo-messi/?s=09
Hektor Posted March 3 Posted March 3 https://www.wsj.com/world/china/the-world-is-in-for-another-china-shock-3d98b533 Quote China is flooding foreign markets with cheap goods again. This time it isn’t buying much in return. In the late 1990s and early 2000s, the U.S. and the global economy experienced a “China shock,” a boom in imports of cheap Chinese-made goods that helped keep inflation low but at the cost of local manufacturing jobs. A sequel might be in the making as Beijing doubles down on exports to revive the country’s growth. Its factories are churning out more cars, machinery and consumer electronics than its domestic economy can absorb. Propped up by cheap, state-directed loans, Chinese companies are glutting foreign markets with products they can’t sell at home. Some economists see this China shock pushing inflation down even more than the first. China’s economy is now slowing, whereas, in the previous era, it was booming. As a result, the disinflationary effect of cheap Chinese-manufactured goods won’t be offset by Chinese demand for iron ore, coal and other commodities.
Blake Hampton Posted March 4 Posted March 4 11 hours ago, Ulti said: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2024/03/04/inside-north-koreas-forced-labor-program-in-china maybe slightly off topic; but disgusting none the less That was a rough read
Luke Posted March 7 Posted March 7 (edited) Whats bothering me the most right now is chinas inability to get the latest high end chips and the continuing pressure on ASML to stop support china with older machines. What impact will that have on their economies and competitiveness? What if Tesla is allowed to use latest Nvidia chips but BYD cant, making their product inferior? Essentially, that ban is a complete blockade on chinas development and will effect them literally everywhere. They wont grow as much as the west since they cant have the level of automatization, their tech companies will lag behind, tech products will lag behind compared to the west. Amazing for the west and US economies, terrible for china... Edited March 7 by Luca
RichardGibbons Posted March 7 Posted March 7 Yep. I've been reading Chip War, and the book makes a pretty good case that a contributing factor to USSR falling behind the world and losing the Cold War was simply that they couldn't match the free world in semiconductors in large part because they couldn't get access to cutting-edge manufacturing equipment. It's a pretty good outcome, I think, as long as the CCP keeps doing horrific things, but I feel bad that the Chinese people get screwed as a result.
Luke Posted March 7 Posted March 7 9 minutes ago, RichardGibbons said: Yep. I've been reading Chip War, and the book makes a pretty good case that a contributing factor to USSR falling behind the world and losing the Cold War was simply that they couldn't match the free world in semiconductors in large part because they couldn't get access to cutting-edge manufacturing equipment. It's a pretty good outcome, I think, as long as the CCP keeps doing horrific things, but I feel bad that the Chinese people get screwed as a result. It doesn't matter what "horrific" things China is doing. They may as well stop the labor camps, but they still won't get the chips. They won't get them even if they start appeasing the US. They are just not allowed to develop and become a counterweight to the US led world order. The US now controls more than 60% of global cashflows with their multinational companies, the SP 500 is THE most important index and totally overweight in a total world. Maybe the sanctions will be lifted if they have elections that can be influenced by western media and the elected leader becomes a servant to the US/Nato.
Luke Posted March 7 Posted March 7 (edited) At the same point in time, US largecaps are priced at all time highs and multiples while the rest of the world, except for a small elite of companies in europe (LVMH, ASML and what not, NOTE: ASML bows down to US orders too, and what is left of chinese tech), is priced low. Inflows definitely have something to do with it. Geopolitically, China is in a bad place. Everything will need AI, Software/Games, Commodities, consumer staples and what not. Mcdonalds will have a cool AI in China but their local chinese players will not have that. Their players will significantly suffer in competition. I dont know if china is able to replicate the chip technology but its really not a nice place to be in. Edited March 7 by Luca
Luke Posted March 7 Posted March 7 And lets say AI really drives GDP growth north of 3% and we see 4%+ for a couple of years in the US. Thats the dream for US wallstreet and china will look:
Luke Posted March 7 Posted March 7 (edited) I hope that they are able to circumvent the sanctions with shell companies in other countries etc. But the supervision for NVIDIA AI server chips seems to be tougher, and can't say how easy it is to dodge controls here. Maybe we really end up with similar work arounds with russian gas. Just order it through multiple companies and countries at a higher price. Perhaps AI chips will then only be sold to US largecaps and your company needs to be at a certain size to buy them? What will that do to Nvidias supply chains? Perhaps this will become a more tightly controlled business on par with military shipments at some point in the future. AI regulation also seems to be an open question. But i think China is also able to get quite some manpower together with the global south and rejected countries with lots of ressources, LOTs of potential for conflict and the more the gap in development continues, the more people on the other side will have nothing to lose and a war becomes more likely (hello Bin Laden). Edited March 7 by Luca
Luke Posted March 7 Posted March 7 (edited) China looks towards Taiwan with the fingers on their missile buttons. IF the US continues to harm China and their economy continues to deteriorate, i think it can make sense for china to take taiwan has a hostage and cut off the chip supply. Do a full blockade of the island, bombard it with heavy missiles from the mainland...taiwan isnt investing nearly enough into their military, US still far away... Edited March 7 by Luca
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