China

[formthirteen]

51 minutes ago, Luca said:

If you think higher taxes for billionaires, forced wages in specific sectors or that states buy businesses, germany is also a marxist system haha.

 

Yes, the whole of Europe is marxist compared to the US. That's also why they understand and are more sympathetic towards Russia and China than the US.

 

Quote

Why would anyone be so stupid and risk a war

 

Because <insert human biases here> and <name of autocrat here>.

 

Quote

Why does he need help with risk management?

 

He doesn't ”need it” because he's Charlie and can do (and does) whatever he likes. However, he uses leverage, has a history of losing everything (house and money), invests in China where there's a risk of losing everything. Ask Warren Buffett about leverage, investing in China and rule #1.

 

Quote

Unfortunately, Munger's style ended up causing him significant stress in the early 1970s. His strategy of going all-in on just a few bets and using borrowed money to juice returns meant that in the market crash of 1973 to 1974, his partners suffered significantly.

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lessons-charlie-mungers-early-partnership-164823987.html

Edited April 27, 2023 by formthirteen

[Aurel]

25 minutes ago, Luca said:

Why does he need help with risk management? He invested in two great big, well run businesses in one of the largest growing economies that gains partners all over the planet in rapid speed. A country that is at the top in many of the futures fields. He rightfully agrees that the valuations compensate for the slight increase in geopolitical uncertainty but as he said, it would be bonkers if there is war between US and China. Why would anyone be so stupid and risk a war, Ray Dalio puts it perfectly, its not in the interest of anybody.

 

 

 

Sure, it would be bonkers if there is a war between US and China. That doesn't mean it ain't gonna happen.

It's tough do give up your supremacy. It’s the Thucydides Trap.

Quote

Supporting the thesis, Graham Allison led a study at Harvard University's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs which found that among 16 historical instances of an emerging power rivaling a ruling power, 12 ended in war.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thucydides_Trap

 

 

 

But..maybe this time it’s different.

[Luca]

25 minutes ago, formthirteen said:

 

Yes, the whole of Europe is marxist compared to the US. That's also why they ”understand” Russia and China better than the US.

Its not that simple, europe has capitalism, china has capitalism, the US has capitalism. Each country has different forms of regulations and state interference, in the US you have bailouts too? Is that marxist? If you think capitalism should be a complete free market and government only doing the slightest of intervention (police, military, holding up constitution but not changing it), you dont even have that in the US and a complete free market system wont survive long anyways.

 

Id argue that Europe understands the US and China, The US does not understand China.

[Luca]

29 minutes ago, Aurel said:

 

Sure, it would be bonkers if there is a war between US and China. That doesn't mean it ain't gonna happen.

It's tough do give up your supremacy. It’s the Thucydides Trap.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thucydides_Trap

 

 

 

But..maybe this time it’s different.

Just to throw in some words from Chomsky: 

 

 

[Castanza]

The most important paragraph from that Dalio letter. The best company in the world can go downhill quickly under poor leadership with bad culture. 

 

Chinese and American Relations with Other Countries 

While there is a wide range of views among various countries’ leaders, there is a growing belief among Chinese and many other countries’ leaders that the United States is in decline, plagued with domestic issues. They believe that for this reason the US is no longer adequately guiding the world order, and, as a result of this void, the world is headed for a period of great disorder. There is a strong belief that the world is desperately in need of stronger multilateral 1) leadership, 2) systems, and 3) institutions, and that China is very likely to play a leading role in helping to provide these, but that disorder will likely precede a more peaceful new world order.

[Luca]

5 minutes ago, Castanza said:

The most important paragraph from that Dalio letter. The best company in the world can go downhill quickly under poor leadership with bad culture. 

 

Chinese and American Relations with Other Countries 

While there is a wide range of views among various countries’ leaders, there is a growing belief among Chinese and many other countries’ leaders that the United States is in decline, plagued with domestic issues. They believe that for this reason the US is no longer adequately guiding the world order, and, as a result of this void, the world is headed for a period of great disorder. There is a strong belief that the world is desperately in need of stronger multilateral 1) leadership, 2) systems, and 3) institutions, and that China is very likely to play a leading role in helping to provide these, but that disorder will likely precede a more peaceful new world order.

Spot on. And bad culture is everywhere in US politics...

[Ulti]

There's been a lot of discussion about the possibility of "de-dollarization," or the idea that the world could move away from using the dollar as the de facto global reserve currency. Some of this desire makes sense. Not only has the Federal Reserve been hiking rates at the fastest pace in decades, which puts economic pressure on other countries through links to the dollar and US trade, but sanctions imposed on Russia have also made some nations more wary of relying on US financial assets and infrastructure. And in BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), there seems to be growing appetite to usurp the dollar’s hegemony. Of course, we've seen this kind of talk before, yet there has been little change to the dollar's special role. So is it different this time? On this episode, we speak with Paul McNamara, an investment director at GAM and a veteran of emerging markets, about what's driving this renewed clamor for de-dollarization.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/why-the-desire-to-move-away-from-the-dollar-is-getting-real/id1056200096?i=1000610831561

 Interesting take on how difficult it would be for

china to obtain reserve currency status among other things

 

[sleepydragon]

3 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

If you believe what Dahlio writes is true, then as investor living in the west, you want to sell any Chinese investment. Similarly as a Chinese person, you want to pull your investment out of the western hemisphere and particularly the US and Europe.

 

Otherwise, if the war (economic or even military) indeed breaks out, you will find yourself on one side of the fence and your money and investments on the other. That pretty much means you lost control over your investments and it is likely a total loss for you.

 

This is true regardless of whether your think what the US or China does is right or justified. You invest in the world as it is, not in the world you want.

 

I don't think things are that bad.

Ray Dalio has personal friendship with some of the highest level officials in China. I feel what he wrote above is largely on behalf of these high ranking Chinese official whom he talked with while he was in China. This is the message that China want to get across.  Now, if you imagine these are not the words from Ray Dalio, but from people like Liu He, it's seems to me China is trying to de-escalate through un-official channel.

 

 

[formthirteen]

1 hour ago, Luca said:

Its not that simple, europe has capitalism, china has capitalism, the US has capitalism.

 

I agree unless we talk about principles. The United States has the principle of freedom. There's a reason people in Europe don't talk and care about freedom as much as people in the United States. Europe doesn't defend freedom (and capitalism) in the same way and relies on the US to defend it (WW1, WW2, NATO, Ukraine) even with Russia as a neighbor. Everything is not that simple until it is

[Luca]

1 hour ago, formthirteen said:

 

 

 

Because <insert human biases here> and <name of autocrat here>.

 

1 hour ago, formthirteen said:

 

He doesn't ”need it” because he's Charlie and can do (and does) whatever he likes. However, he uses leverage, has a history of losing everything (house and money), invests in China where there's a risk of losing everything. Ask Warren Buffett about leverage, investing in China and rule #1.

 

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lessons-charlie-mungers-early-partnership-164823987.html

Lol, he was down 50% in a marketcrash and so were his partners? Why would Munger care? This is literally all there is in this article: 

 

 

This sounds like a big nothing burger, where did he lose everything? Money and House? 

 

He did use a little bit of leverage and it was fine for DJCO? 

 

Berkshire owns chinese equity?

[Luca]

3 minutes ago, formthirteen said:

 

I agree unless we talk about principles. The United States has the principle of freedom. There's a reason people in Europe don't talk and care about freedom as much as people in the United States. Europe doesn't defend freedom (and capitalism) in the same way and relies on the US to defend it (WW1, WW2, NATO, Ukraine) even with Russia as a neighbor. Everything is not that simple until it is

I think, and i can only speak for germany, that everybody here wants freedom. But we understand that in order to have freedom, you need regulation, otherwise corporations can take away your freedom with bad wages, bad products etc. We do defend our freedom and the system we have and we are getting more and more independent from the US (see germans extra funding for the military). Where did the US defend germany in WW2 exactly Sir? 

 

 

[kimoser22]

14 minutes ago, sleepydragon said:

 

I don't think things are that bad.

Ray Dalio has personal friendship with some of the highest level officials in China. I feel what he wrote above is largely on behalf of these high ranking Chinese official whom he talked with while he was in China. This is the message that China want to get across.  Now, if you imagine these are not the words from Ray Dalio, but from people like Liu He, it's seems to me China is trying to de-escalate through un-official channel.

 

 

Agree.
 

A lot of the article seem like Chinese talking points. Not to say some criticisms aren’t fair, we are choosing to block Chinas access to advanced tech which is a pretty belligerent move…but the “hey guiz let’s not shoot each other when we invade Taiwan, feel free to provide as many arms to them as you need to…” line seems like str8 central committee propaganda 

[formthirteen]

13 minutes ago, Luca said:

Where did the US defend germany in WW2 exactly Sir?

 

Depends on your viewpoint, for example, when they stopped the Russians from advancing toward the West, and when they helped overthrow the dictator. Anyways, I don't like to argue with people when we're all talking about the same things from different viewpoints.

 

Edited April 27, 2023 by formthirteen

[mcliu]

47 minutes ago, Ulti said:

There's been a lot of discussion about the possibility of "de-dollarization," or the idea that the world could move away from using the dollar as the de facto global reserve currency. Some of this desire makes sense. Not only has the Federal Reserve been hiking rates at the fastest pace in decades, which puts economic pressure on other countries through links to the dollar and US trade, but sanctions imposed on Russia have also made some nations more wary of relying on US financial assets and infrastructure. And in BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), there seems to be growing appetite to usurp the dollar’s hegemony. Of course, we've seen this kind of talk before, yet there has been little change to the dollar's special role. So is it different this time? On this episode, we speak with Paul McNamara, an investment director at GAM and a veteran of emerging markets, about what's driving this renewed clamor for de-dollarization.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/why-the-desire-to-move-away-from-the-dollar-is-getting-real/id1056200096?i=1000610831561

 Interesting take on how difficult it would be for

china to obtain reserve currency status among other things

 

It is hard to replace the world's financial system, but I think the USD closer to a crisis than it's ever been.

First, spending in the US is out of control and debt and deficits are spiralling. The last time the US defaulted (1971) there was no alternative system.

Second, US was the largest trading partner for the world at the time. Today China is the largest trading partner for most countries.

Third, foreigners used to trust US property protection but that trust is being eroded by the weaponizing sanctions and arbitrary confiscation of property.

[Luca]

2 minutes ago, formthirteen said:

 

Depends on your viewpoint, for example, when they stopped the Russians from advancing toward the West, and when they helped overthrow the dictator. Anyways, I don't like to argue with people when we're all talking about the same things from different viewpoints.

Sorry, the US has how many people living in that country? If China attacks europe, obviously we will have problems just because of the population difference, its plain math. That germany went havoc on europe and then needed to be attacked by the whole World shows that europe is not some powerless US base, not that it was any good what happened in WW2. 

 

Fine, if you dont want have discussions where people have different viewpoints. 

[sleepydragon]

17 minutes ago, kimoser22 said:

Agree.
 

A lot of the article seem like Chinese talking points. Not to say some criticisms aren’t fair, we are choosing to block Chinas access to advanced tech which is a pretty belligerent move…but the “hey guiz let’s not shoot each other when we invade Taiwan, feel free to provide as many arms to them as you need to…” line seems like str8 central committee propaganda 

 

in my opinion, if Taiwan chose to go independent, likely China will invade. That's why Xi had the support of the elders in CCP to become leader. Only he's willing to do it.

But I think most Taiwanese don't care about going independent. The most affluent Taiwanese immigrated from mainland and has deep business connection with china.  Some of the younger Taiwanese (the liberals) always wanted to go independent. But most Taiwanese won't want to go to war because of this.

 

[Luca]

29 minutes ago, sleepydragon said:

 

in my opinion, if Taiwan chose to go independent, likely China will invade. That's why Xi had the support of the elders in CCP to become leader. Only he's willing to do it.

But I think most Taiwanese don't care about going independent. The most affluent Taiwanese immigrated from mainland and has deep business connection with china.  Some of the younger Taiwanese (the liberals) always wanted to go independent. But most Taiwanese won't want to go to war because of this.

 

230109_Cancian_FirstBattle_NextWar (1).pdf

 

From Center of strategic and international studies: 

 

https://www.csis.org/analysis/first-battle-next-war-wargaming-chinese-invasion-taiwan

 

They ran an interesting simulation and looked at different outcomes of invasion in Taiwan. 80 Pager research. I think its quite accurate, i will also post what Chris Miller, the Professor who wrote the Book Chip War said about a Taiwan Invasion. 

 

[Luca]

 

 

[Luca]

[Luca]

[Luca]

[Luca]

The question is, where does China benefit in an Invasion and will they act just to set a statement. 

 

China will lose access to high end chips as will the US (some will be able to come from samsung but its a small amount). 

 

Whole world will fall into a great depression for at least 5-10 years until semiconductor supply chains were able to be built elsewhere (if they can even run them as well as the TSMC team does and if they manage to pull enough talent into these foundries since taiwans engineers and workers could die in the war when the reserves are mobilized. 

 

China will likely not have access to ASML machines at all for the future, i doubt they can advance in EUV without the european supply chain. 

 

They will have killed ten thousands of their own soldiers, many depressed mothers, brothers, sisters and family members, questionable impact on their own political stability. 

 

 

Edited April 27, 2023 by Luca

[Luca]

As Munger said it: ,,I think its off the table for a long time,,

 

Taiwan wont declare independence because they dont need to. Tsai Ing Wen said it herself, they ARE ALREADY independent. No need to announce anything here. 

Edited April 27, 2023 by Luca

[Castanza]

8 minutes ago, Luca said:

As Munger said it: ,,I think its off the table for a long time,,

 

Taiwan wont declare independence because they dont need to. Tsai Ing Wen said it herself, they ARE ALREADY independent. No need to announce anything here. 

The hardest thing to separate right now is China and the US as global super powers. Western media wants to portray China as pure evil because it’s all we can do to cling to the pant leg of power and global influence. China wants to portray itself as better and more open than it is to portray to the world that it can assume that role responsibly. 
 

Right now China is winning that battle. The alliances continue to grow in the East. 
 

Most Americans are too prideful to admit this power shift. America is flat footed and still looking back at the post WWII era of power status as if that still exists. The government in this country is basically stagnant and non-functioning. Thus providing no direction, no unity. 

Edited April 27, 2023 by Castanza

[Luca]

2 minutes ago, Castanza said:

The hardest thing to separate right now is China and the US as global super powers. Western media wants to portray China as pure evil because it’s all we can do to cling to the pant leg of power and global influence. China wants to portray itself as better and more open than it is to portray to the world that it can assume that role responsibly. 
 

Right now China is winning that battle. The alliances continue to grow in the East. 

Well said, Noam Chomsky said something similiar in this YT Video. 

 

He says that these two global superpowers have their own ,,Party Lines" also regarding the ukraine war.

The global south thinks the West is ridiculous with their moralization of russia, there have been plenty of brutal wars where US played a role and killed thousands. Why do we suddenly have to be so mad against Putin if the US is hypocritical? India buys more gas and doesnt see the points. Of course putins war is horrible but similiar acts have been done by the US in the past. As westerners, we just dont see it (manufactured consent, biased media, Western Party Line). 

 

China has their own criminal things going, human rights problems, trying to get access to key technology with patents etc. Its not innocent either but as you said, they are growing their own alliances pretty well and have satisfied customers. They copied the US imperial strategy and are now almost more successfull then the US.