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Recently I have watched multiple interviews on Turkish investments by Mohnish pabrai. I dug bit more on this.

 

I was able to find few more of his investments.

1. AgeSA Hayat ve Emeklilik A.S.

2.Anadolu Hayat Emeklilik AS

3.Reysaş Logistics

4. TAV HAVALİMANLARI HOLDİNG A.Ş.

and more

 

How I was able to find this on public disclosed platform link here. https://www.kap.org.tr/en/

 

I am not sure I can share here. this is my first post. Any corrections and inputs are really appreciated. 

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Recently I have watched multiple interviews on Turkish investments by Mohnish pabrai. I dug bit more on this.

 

I was able to find few more of his investments.

1. AgeSA Hayat ve Emeklilik A.S.

2.Anadolu Hayat Emeklilik AS

3.Reysaş Logistics

4. TAV HAVALİMANLARI HOLDİNG A.Ş.

and more

 

How I was able to find this on public disclosed platform link here. https://www.kap.org.tr/en/

 

I am not sure I can share here. this is my first post. Any corrections and inputs are really appreciated.

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Please do not start this thread again in the Investment Ideas section.  That section is for ticker specific ideas so we have a database of discussions about a specific stock, not broad-based country ideas like Turkey.  Cheers!

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I have dabbled a bit in Turkey (got slaughtered) and fail to see how you can make money here, given the interest rate and currency issues.  The key interest rate is 14% and it is probably too low given the current rate of inflation there. Might as well forget about Turkish stocks and just speculate on the Turkish Lira.

 

There are some good companies in Turkey but I fail to see how this is investible.

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8 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

I have dabbled a bit in Turkey (got slaughtered) and fail to see how you can make money here, given the interest rate and currency issues.  The key interest rate is 14% and it is probably too low given the current rate of inflation there. Might as well forget about Turkish stocks and just speculate on the Turkish Lira.

 

There are some good companies in Turkey but I fail to see how this is investible.

 

Not only is inflation, interest rates and currency issues huge problems but the guy in charge has the worst possible ideas for addressing it.

 

Maybe there is a macro "expectations" trade where you bet that after having his face smashed in by dumb macro policies Erdoğan does a 180 and fixes things. But predicting that is beyond my ken, especially when his low interest rate policies are dictated by his political strategy.

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4 hours ago, ValueArb said:

 

Not only is inflation, interest rates and currency issues huge problems but the guy in charge has the worst possible ideas for addressing it.

 

Maybe there is a macro "expectations" trade where you bet that after having his face smashed in by dumb macro policies Erdoğan does a 180 and fixes things. But predicting that is beyond my ken, especially when his low interest rate policies are dictated by his political strategy.

Yep, like backstopping Turkish lira  bank deposits & savings against losses relative to hard currencies. Since he did so, the Turkish lira has cratered again. I suspect it was just a play to calm markets and stem outflows but I think the market is slowly calling the bluff. I suspect that Turkey never could make good on this backstop if the currency really depreciates. Won’t be fun to be in Turkish equities if this house of cards collapses, I think.

 

Its s shame because there are some real hard charging entrepreneurs there. I went to Turkey on a business trip (shortly after the Istanbul airport

terror attackers) for a customer installation a few years ago and was quite impressed. So there is some real potential there, but there is also a deep chasm between the secular Turks and deep religious Muslims that are mostly living peacefully next to each other. You just wonder if this is going to last. I sure hope so, but I would not bet a lot of my money on it.

Edited by Spekulatius
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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted (edited)

My biggest risk is Turkish devaluation. With current lira situations I can see 1 USD going to 30 liras

 

If we invest 100 USD in Turkey.

2022  100US--> 1539.20 Lira (1USD =15.39 Lira)

if stock compounds 24 times in Lira terms in 3 years its a double

2025 3078.4 Liras --> 102.6 (1USD=30 Liras)

 

The gains are very minimum. Is that a correct assumption or I am missing some thing please advise. 

 

Edited by dymanojbabu
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