Russia-Ukrainian War

[cubsfan]

14 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Seen as some are beating up on Biden - I'll join in but care neither for Biden or Trump...put an electoral gun to my head I vote Biden all day long. 

 

Biden is/was perceived by Russia as a Ukraine 'hawk' in that under his watch as VP with portfolio responsibility for Ukraine under Obama....he was seen to have encouraged supported and maneuvered the most hard West pivot that Ukranian leadership had ever taken raising alarm in the Kremlin (if you care to look at it from a singular Russian security perspective). Add in the barisma stuff with Hunter....and you can see....if you pause for a moment and walk in a Russian's shoe for second....the strange feeling that Ukraine was becoming a US puppet state & Biden during his time as VP was chiefly responsible for what Mearsheimar refers to as "the leading Ukraine down the primrose path period" which is to encouraging them to pivot to us more completely as means by which WE ehanced our security in the West....better Ukraine is a western puppet state...than like Belarus a Russian puppet state.

 

When Biden assumed the presidency and given his prior Ukrainian portfolio responbilty and 8yrs a Ukraine hawk......paradoxically for all the Republicans out there that like to pretend that Russia invaded Ukraine because Biden is WEAK......they actually invaded Ukraine after he assumed the presidency because the calculation was that Biden was the most AGGRESSIVE i.e. hawkish president to sit in the Oval Office (vis a vie Ukraine's) in decades.

 

It's no coincidence that Russia invaded Ukraine a year after Biden's inauguration.....they perceived the most Ukrainian hawkish president in decades sitting in the oval office with potentially 8 full years in front of him to transform completely Ukraine into a Western bulwark on Russia's doorstep......a project he'd started as Vice President......or what we euphemistically call a vassal state.

 

I agree with a poster above.......Trump's transactional foreign relations stance......from a Russian standpoint was infinitely more preferable vis a vie Ukraine & Russian security concerns there......than Biden's Ukraine track record....and his idealistic/zealot democracy vs. autocracy rhetoric that characterized his first year in office.

 

Remember the "Summit for Democracy" in December 2021...three short months before Russia's Ukraine invasion:

 

Sitting in Beijing or the Kremlin....and you see the picture above.....you the know the 'deal' as Biden would say.....its projecting liberal democracy because you beleive in it but also because it hurts your enemies (Russia, China, Iran, N.Korea)...and that photo to an autocrat looks like a tonne of future mischief making by the new US president in your part of the world.

 

In international relations - WEAK/STRONG leaders have different meanings depending on your viewpoint......Russia invaded Ukraine during Biden's presidency not because he was perceived to be weak but quite the opposite...Biden was intent, and his track record was flawless, on projecting US power via liberal democratic ideals in far flung regions.....all the better if that liberal democratic idealism also strategically weakened autocratic regimes that were US enemies. In this respect Putin the mad man, Putin the imperialist....is really Putin the calcuting statements (miscalculating for sure based on what happened)....but on Feb 2022 he made a deeply aggressive move to assert dominance on his Western flank. He miscalculated for sure based on subsequent events.......but the calculation contained undoubtedly the above variables....and Biden was a key part.....not because Biden is weak....but because Biden is strong (again weak/strong are subjective and I use them here in terms of a dove vs. a hawk on Ukraine).

Biden has been a disaster for foreign policy. 20 years of holding Afghanistan & establishing a $1B military base - and the you GAVE it to the Taliban with weapons included - ALL because you wanted to have a parade on 9/11 !

 

Come on - deal in facts already- thousands of innocent civilians murdered because of Biden’s weakness. And he has your respect?Ask yourself this: what if Kennedy, Nixon or Carter had withdrawn from S. Korea after 20 years of hard earned gains?  
 

Where would S. Korea be?

 

What kind of slaughter would have happened?

 

All because the guy wanted to have a parade.

 

What do you think our allies and adversaries would think?

 

Putin’s answer: The time is now to take  Ukraine with Biden in charge 

[changegonnacome]

1 minute ago, cubsfan said:

And he has your respect?

 

never said that - and I gave a facts based reasoning on Ukraine only....from a Russia perspective vis a vie Ukraine...and given Biden's hawkishness as VP in Ukraine portfolio......his ascension to the Presidency, from a Russia perspective was seen as a defacto ratcheting up of aggressiveness by the US. Weak/strong is very subjective word depending on view points....but make no mistake about it from a Russian perspective Biden was perceived to be a president more interested than Trump for sure in making aggressive maneuvers against the Kremlin via Ukraine dabbling.

 

Put crudely, from a Kremlin point of view, Trump was weak (in that he cared little for ratcheting up conflict with Russia via Ukraine) which suited Russia and Biden was perceived as strong as he was highly likely to do the opposite simply based on his hawkish/aggressive/"strong'/tough on Russia during his time as VP with responsibility for Ukraine....which did not suit narrow Russian regional interests at all.

 

The other stuff Afghanistan debacle etc - not going there its off topic.

[cubsfan]

Just now, changegonnacome said:

 

never said that - and I gave a facts based reasoning on Ukraine only....from a Russia perspective vis a vie Ukraine...and given Biden's hawkishness as VP in Ukraine portfolio......his ascension to the Presidency, from a Russia perspective was seen as a defacto ratcheting up of aggressiveness by the US. Weak/strong is very subjective word depending on view points....but make no mistake about it from a Russian perspective Biden was perceived to be a president more interested than Trump for sure in making aggressive maneuvers against the Kremlin via Ukraine dabbling.

 

Put crudely, from a Kremlin point of view, Trump was weak (in that he cared little for ratcheting up conflict with Russia via Ukraine) which suited Russia and Biden was perceived as strong as he was highly likely to do the opposite simply based on his hawkish/aggressive/"strong'/tough on Russia during his time as VP with responsibility for Ukraine....which did not suit narrow Russian regional interests at all.

 

The other stuff Afghanistan debacle etc - not going there its off topic.

You don’t want to go off topic because  President Biden is responsible for the greatest foreign policy disaster in American history.

 

You think our allies and adversaries are stupid. 
 

They aren’t. And Putin & Xi aren’t.

[changegonnacome]

6 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

You don’t want to go off topic because  President Biden is responsible for the greatest foreign policy disaster in American history.

 

I think you have me confused.....I dont love Biden and I didn't/dont hate/love Trump either....I'm agnostic & try to be objective on whoever the President happens to be and call it on a policy by policy decision.....based on the tenor & tone of your posts I get the sense that you might find it hard to write a bad thing about Trump or conversely a good thing about Biden. I rarely get into discussions with anybody on politics when I spot somebody's inability to praise or denigrate a president. I hear tribal drums when I read your posts, maybe I'm wrong on that.....but either way I'm not interested in having a discussion in REAL life that sounds like the nonsense that's on MSNBC or Fox News.

[cubsfan]

I’m not confused at all. 
 

You duck the issues - that’s all .

 

Every US President since Eisenhower, regardless of party, understood if you cut and run out of S. Korea that you would have a massive bloodbath and set S. Korea back 100 years. No more Samsung or Kia , etc…. With MINIMAL maintenance and no loss of life, you could hold your gains until such time Korea could defend itself from a lunatic regime.

 

Its the identical situation in Afghanistan, but you have a US administration that is SO reckless - that it literally destroyed Kabul and 20 years of work.

 

Putin sees it - take his opportunity- and you have a catastrophic situation in Ukraine.

 

But Biden, of course, is the right man for the job. Hilarious.

 

Biden destroyed confidence in the US in the eyes of the world.

Edited July 17, 2023 by cubsfan

[changegonnacome]

@cubsfan Tell me one economic or military policy where the Trump administration was completely and utterly off the charts reckless/stupid/misguided on and then tell me one area where Biden has done an outstanding job, nailing it so to speak.

Edited July 17, 2023 by changegonnacome

[Spekulatius]

Kerch bridge hit again. More than a scratch, I think:

 

[cubsfan]

@changegonnacome It’s not about party lines. I voted for Obama his first term. I was a big Bill Clinton fan for years. I was not a Trump fan during the primaries. His actions as President made me a big fan.
 

Obama’s foreign policy was weak. Biden’s is just insane.

Edited July 17, 2023 by cubsfan

[cubsfan]

My point on Ukraine has always been about weak foreign policy AND weak leaders. You get peace through strength. There is NO question who possesses the military strength - a combined Europe & US can not be defeated. 
 

But France, Germany & the US did not establish a real red line for Putin in Europe - you have your catastrophe. Putin played Obama. The Biden family helped themselves to Ukraine money.

Biden showed no stomach for a fight in Kabul. Europe dithered.

 

It’s a clear failure of leadership. It has nothing to do with military might. It has nothing to do with party preference.

Now, after the obvious failures, it has to be undone. Congratulations President Biden.

 

[Xerxes]

To be fair, the struggle in the Korean Peninsula was between state actors. 
 

The struggle in Afghanistan was between a an internal foe that had a free hand in most of Afghanistan (outside the two big cities)

[cubsfan]

^^^^ Correct - but the struggle in Afghanistan was about controlling a regime that helped bring down the twin towers. It WAS under control. Then an American President handed control right back to the regime. 

 

 

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, cubsfan said:

^^^^ Correct - but the struggle in Afghanistan was about controlling a regime that helped bring down the twin towers. It WAS under control. Then an American President handed control right back to the regime. 

 

 

The exit from Afghanistan was decided  by the Trump administrated and executed under Biden (poorly).

 

In foreign politics there is much more continuity than disruption. One reason is most presidential candidates get elected for the domestic agenda, not the foreign one, so the foreign one is mostly an afterthought until they take office and then the path of least resistance is just to continue.

The trade war with China was started under Trump and continued under Biden without meeting a pause. It will be continued by the next administration whoever that might be. Same thing with Ukraine.

Edited July 17, 2023 by Spekulatius

[cubsfan]

Trump’s wind down in Afghanistan resulted in no dead Americans for 18 months and stability in Kabul. His statement was to withdraw ONCE the domestic Afghan forces could provide their own security under the few thousand remaining American forces. Joe Biden threw away Trump’s plan in favor of his own - a lightening withdrawal to meet a 9/11 parade deadline.

 

Against the wishes of his military advisors. 
 

Biden’s plan was Biden plan only.

 

He was handed a stable plan on a silver platter in Afghanistan by his predecessor

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, cubsfan said:

Trump’s wind down in Afghanistan resulted in no dead Americans for 18 months and stability in Kabul.

Fact-check and Reuters says you are wrong:

https://www.factcheck.org/2021/08/instagram-post-wrong-on-u-s-casualties-in-afghanistan/

[cubsfan]

^^^ oh, sorry , huge error on my part.

 

4 killed in combat in that period , not zero. You might call that period “relatively peaceful “.

 

But Biden definitely wins with 13 Americans killed in 1 day. 
 

My bad!

Edited July 17, 2023 by cubsfan

[Ulti]

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/why-trump-killed-tpp-why-it-matters-you-n710781…..

This trade agreement would have cut China off at the pass 

https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/14/politics/willow-project-oil-alaska-explained-climate/index.html

Biden might be starting to see the Energy light…

As an aside , they both suck for different reasons 

6 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

@cubsfan Tell me one economic or military policy where the Trump administration was completely and utterly off the charts reckless/stupid/misguided on and then tell me one area where Biden has done an outstanding job, nailing it so to speak.

[John Hjorth]

Gents,

 

Pardon me, but projecting the actual situation here in Europe with regard to Russia and Ukraine as of now into a discussion of a comparative analysis of past and incumbent US Presidential stupidity is actually to me a bit entertaining, to say the least. 

 

The majority of the fools, not reacting timely, sufficent and with measured and appropriate responses, are on the other side of the Atlantic pond, I would say.

 

Thank you for your support in these times.

[John Hjorth]

On weaponizing food :

 

The Conversation [June 21^st 2022] : Starving civilians is an ancient military tactic, but today it’s a war crime in Ukraine, Yemen, Tigray and elsewhere, &

The Conversation [July 19^th 2023] : Why Russia pulled out of its grain deal with Ukraine – and what that means for the global food system.

[Dinar]

Ukraine’s Lack of Weaponry and Training Risks Stalemate in Fight With Russia - WSJ

 

Sadly, this is what I worried about a year ago, neither plan nor foresight on the part of the Western countries, and recklessness on the part of Ukrainians.  

[ValueArb]

On 7/17/2023 at 1:43 PM, cubsfan said:

Trump’s wind down in Afghanistan resulted in no dead Americans for 18 months and stability in Kabul. His statement was to withdraw ONCE the domestic Afghan forces could provide their own security under the few thousand remaining American forces. Joe Biden threw away Trump’s plan in favor of his own - a lightening withdrawal to meet a 9/11 parade deadline.

 

Against the wishes of his military advisors. 
 

Biden’s plan was Biden plan only.

 

He was handed a stable plan on a silver platter in Afghanistan by his predecessor

Trump gave the Taliban 18 months to rebuild their forces without worry of air strikes and the date to plan for their offensive. His plan was ridiculous, he was the one who made “cut and run” our strategic plan for Afghanistan. 
 

And to be honest, he was right to pull out. Twenty years of wasted US tax dollars after we already got the goat herders who did 9/11. There never should have been a $1B base and it was a sunk cost, not an asset.

[UK]

https://www.economist.com/international/2023/07/27/the-ukrainian-army-commits-new-forces-in-a-big-southward-push

 

These factors explain why General Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s top general, decided to throw in fresh legs on July 26th. He has been forced to adapt his original plan. Brigades from Ukraine’s 9th Corps had been expected to fight their way to Russia’s main line of defence. Then the 10th Corps, in essence a second echelon, including three Western-equipped brigades, were to be deployed to fight their way through the strongest defences. Finally, light, fast-moving air-assault units were supposed to exploit any breakthrough, pouring through the hard-won breach.

In the event, 9th Corps struggled. Advances that were supposed to be completed in days ended up taking weeks. Ukraine was unable to deploy whole brigades, instead breaking them down into smaller units. Some experts worry that 10th Corps has now been thrown in prematurely. The main Russian line is still kilometres away and 10th Corps’s units might be worn down before they get there, leaving them too exhausted to punch through.

 

Western officials play down these concerns. “I think they timed it well,” says one. Ukraine is in a “very strong operational position”, says another, pointing to the turmoil in Russia’s senior ranks, including the decision in early July to sack General Ivan Popov, who commanded a big portion of Russian forces in southern Ukraine. Russian military bloggers have described heavy losses of Russian artillery pieces in recent weeks.

 

However, a fluid war of manoeuvre is likely to remain a stretch for a force cobbled together in a few months. The Russian verb peremalyvat (to grind through) is invoked on both sides. But Ukraine’s junior commanders, having seen their units gutted over the past 18 months, refuse to send their new citizen army into a meat-grinder in the way that Russia did in Bakhmut. As Ukraine has become more European, Ben Wallace, Britain’s defence minister, recently suggested, it has acquired “a Western European caution”.

 

Some American and European military officials argue that Ukrainian commanders have in fact been too slow to strike with their new brigades, a mistake that they think Ukraine committed last year in Kherson, when tens of thousands of Russian troops withdrew east over the Dnieper river with their equipment. Ukrainian commanders chafe at the idea that they should gamble their army in circumstances that nato generals have never faced.

 

The 10th Corps’s assault is a break with that hesitation. And the upside of the aversion to casualties thus far is that many Ukrainian units are in better shape than planners had assumed. Brigades that assaulted Russian positions were expected to be left with only a third of their original strength. Thanks in part to well-armoured Western vehicles, they have taken a lighter knock. Even so, the commitment of 10th Corps is a fateful moment for General Zaluzhny, a cautious commander with the weight of Ukrainian and allied expectations on his shoulders. “This is the last big decision for Zaluzhny to make this summer,” says the Western official. “The die is cast.”

[scorpioncapital]

is anyone worried about a nuclear war, followed by deflation, a rush to certain continents vs others, panic, and some companies doing well that sell radiation monitors, or even Amazon delivering essential goods via robots?

[UK]

2 hours ago, scorpioncapital said:

is anyone worried about a nuclear war, followed by deflation, a rush to certain continents vs others, panic, and some companies doing well that sell radiation monitors, or even Amazon delivering essential goods via robots?

 

Not necessarily about such scenarios, but sure I am worried about what is going on. But then again: 'If a problem is fixable, then there is no need to worry. If it is not fixable, then there is no help in worrying'.

[Xerxes]

11 hours ago, scorpioncapital said:

is anyone worried about a nuclear war, followed by deflation, a rush to certain continents vs others, panic, and some companies doing well that sell radiation monitors, or even Amazon delivering essential goods via robots?

In all candidness, I was concerned about tactical nuke exchange in the early phase, but the probability has gone down a lot. In the early phases of war, he could have stunned the West by going nuclear, stunning Sleepin’ Joe and Kiev, instead he stunned himself. 
 

In 2023, the mutiny, and a shaky chain of command structure, and a Tsar that still playing the peace-time game of creating division within Kremlin, all speak to indecision and indecisiveness. Will even his orders be followed if orders are given to activate the small-yield nukes  …

 

I think in this war, we are exploring how much we can push the non nuclear envelope, and I suspect it can be push further. 
 

That said, in a post-Putin world, will only have uncertainty and ambiguity on the nuclear front. The world indeed has changed and not for the better.  
 

The Economist had a few good article (as always) in the July 1st edition. They described Putin as a “rusty nail” holding the charade together, even as mutiny was unfolding. With stakeholders not sure which direction to bet on, but sure what the rusty nail is. 

[cubsfan]

^^^ I think that’s a great summary of where we are at now. No one knows what Putin will do on the nuke front, but this makes lots of sense.