Russia-Ukrainian War

[Spekulatius]

Nuclear Weapons are useless in this war scenario.

Material numbers  nothing until we discuss the quality of the material. it is not hard to find pre WW2 weapons like Moshin nagant rifles and 1938 horwitzers and Ws1 era Maxim guns.

 

I am not sure how long you have been around but Sowjet Russia has a history of making threats - the most famous one was Khrushevs  shoes scene at the United nations. You sort to know even they are losing when they do this stuff. This all bully playbook.

 

If you know what happens when Russia were to use nuclear weapons read up on NATO flexible response doctrine.

 

On Russian occupation, i have grandparents with first hand experience and let’s just say it’s worth a great deal of fighting not to get there.

Edited August 24 by Spekulatius

[cubsfan]

Ukraine is in a war they can not win. Absent the US & Europe aid, Ukraine would collapse immediately.  

 

If you are going to lose an entire generation of males to Russia - you ought to sue for peace - before you lose everything. If/when it becomes apparent that Europe & the US will have to commit troops to win - I think the allies will sing a different tune: settle this.

 

In settling the conflict - Russia largely keeps the gains it has. Ukraine gets armed to the teeth by its allies to protect what they have left. No one is happy, Putin saves face, declares victory. Zilensky has saved Ukraine from total defeat.

 

It definitely sucks. The time to have solved this crisis was 10+ years ago - by arming Ukraine and telegraphing to Putin a much higher cost of invasion. I can't speak for Europe, but Obama never took Putin seriously.

[Spekulatius]

The idea is to make this a war that Russia can’t win either. Smaller countries have defeated larger aggressor all the time because modern more have made asymmetrical easier. Sure Ukraine would falter without western aid, which is why it must continue to flow and even gets increased. With somebody else doing the fighting it’s chance to put the Russian bear back decades auch that they be dangerous  for a lot long time.

 

This is not a new situation either. All these things including nuclear threats are nothing new. Russia tried similar in the 70’s and 80’s with the SS20 nuclear ballistic rockets to put a wedge between Western Europe and the USA. Same BS suggestions to cave to Russians and appease them - is it worth dying in a nuclear war etc.

 

History quite rhymes itself. ass far as @Luke Russian friends are concerned, I  recommend they pack up their stuff and move elsewhere to Europe or the USA. Much more freedom and economic opportunities there. I know quite a few Russian emigrants from work and not all of them are engineers or PhD’s either, but they all have done well.  All of them came with basically nothing.

[Xerxes]

11 hours ago, Libs said:

 

You make some good points but I can't help reflecting that if Churchill had been this wise and pragmatic, England would have cut a deal with Hitler in 1941 to stay out of the war. The pressure to do so was almost overwhelming. But Churchill knew it would only buy time, and Germany would basically own England once it completed its other goals. 

 

Ukraine being 'pragmatic' at this point probably means slow suffocation and eventual extermination by Russia. But this move into Russia could change the equation. It makes Putin look really bad to his countrymen. I can't fault Zelensky for this action. I find it inspiring.

 

 

 

Churchill did cut a deal with an absolute tyrant in the 1940s, his name was Joseph Stalin. 
 

The Nazi were just lesser of two evils, and much closer threat. 
 

Churchill was pragmatic in that sense. 

[UK]

7 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

On Russian occupation, i have grandparents with first hand experience and let’s just say it’s worth a great deal of fighting not to get there.

+1

 

I laugh everytime when I hear (Russian propoganda?) that being in EU or NATO is something same or simillar of being in the USSR or Russian orbit. It is like comparing Valinor (or whatever is the place those elves live) and Mordor:). Even Elon Musk (the realist?) gets this:

 

"The US did conspicuous acts of kindness like the Berlin Airlift. And I think it’s always like, well, America’s done bad things. Well, of course America’s done bad things, but one needs to look at the whole track record and just generally, one sort of test would be how do you treat your prisoners at war? Or let’s say, no offense to the Russians, but let’s say you’re in Germany, it’s 1945, you’ve got the Russian Army coming one side and you’ve got the French, British and American Army’s coming the other side, who would you like to be just surrendered to? No country is [inaudible 00:27:58] perfect, but I recommend being a POW with the Americans. That would be my choice very strongly."

 

Edited August 25 by UK

[Luke]

Nuclear weapons are not useless in this scenario. They could quite literally destroy much of Ukraine with them, making Ukraine's protection irrelevant because it will be just a destroyed death zone. This is in the circumstance that some foreign military really threatens the existence of the country and government as you would like to see it happen @Spekulatius. I think you underestimate russia and vastly overestimate the usefulness of the west keeping up this war. Whats in our interest here? Russia was a very useful economic partner so why should we start destroying that country? 

 

If you come with a moral justification then you would have to close down a lot of mines in Africa, cut contact with Arabic countries too etc, its all so hypocritical but people become a moral philosopher when it is about Russia but don't open one eye if its about relations with other brutal regimes. The debate is everything but honest. 

 

Thanks for your suggestion to my friends though, they already live in Germany but they miss their homecountry quite badly and contrary to your negativity, they have quite a lot there which is worth living for. But I guess there will always be some Americans who would like to see russia and russias people developing into a "hellhole" and that would be "good" for everybody...this is a level of aggression that leads to further escalation instead of rebuilding contact and mutual trust. 

Edited August 25 by Luke

[Luke]

Its a fundamental disagreement on what russia is as a country. Putin for you, is similar to hitler, a psycho that will irrationally attack and move forward into other countries based on false facts and has to be eliminated and replaced with someone who does what he is told, preferably US orders. 

 

Its a fundamental disagreement on how useful ukraine is as a political asset compared to russia. Additionally some moral justifications are made how unethical it would be to not support the ukranians with every last dollar, ignoring all the other conflicts where we support and trade with these countries where we should, if we follow our logic, invest additional dollars to fight every regime we don't like. 

 

Its a fundamental disagreement on what is achievable in this war, how many resources the west needs to bring up while their own societies have poverty, dysfunctional schools, dysfunctional infrastructure etc. If your moral justification then is to help someone who is worse off, you would have to spend every tax dollar in Africa where million starve to death under brutal dictators and you would have to quite literally upsize military production to help any rebell group. 

 

 

Edited August 25 by Luke

[UK]

53 minutes ago, Luke said:

Its a fundamental disagreement on what russia is as a country. Putin for you, is similar to hitler, a psycho that will irrationally attack and move forward into other countries based on false facts and has to be eliminated and replaced with someone who does what he is told, preferably US orders. 

 

Its a fundamental disagreement on how useful ukraine is as a political asset compared to russia. Additionally some moral justifications are made how unethical it would be to not support the ukranians with every last dollar, ignoring all the other conflicts where we support and trade with these countries where we should, if we follow our logic, invest additional dollars to fight every regime we don't like. 

 

Its a fundamental disagreement on what is achievable in this war, how many resources the west needs to bring up while their own societies have poverty, dysfunctional schools, dysfunctional infrastructure etc. If your moral justification then is to help someone who is worse off, you would have to spend every tax dollar in Africa where million starve to death under brutal dictators and you would have to quite literally upsize military production to help any rebell group. 

 

 

Perhaps lots of choices / scenarious / risks is still possible, for Ukraine and more globally: 

 

https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/autocracies-china-russia-us-election-5dc42efb?mod=hp_lead_pos8

 

Edited August 25 by UK

[Luke]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/cia-maintains-12-secret-bases-212250351.html

 

The US’s Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) maintains 12 secret bases in Ukraine along the border with Russia, and last Thursday CIA chief William Burns made his 10th secret visit to Ukraine since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion.

 

Around 2016, the CIA began training an elite Ukrainian special forces unit known as Unit 2245, which captured Russian drones and communications equipment so that CIA technicians could reverse-engineer them and crack Moscow's encryption systems. According to the NYT, one of the officers in this unit was the current head of Defence Intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov.

 

According to The New York Times, the details of the partnership between the Ukrainian and American intelligence agencies have been a closely guarded secret for a decade.

 

The NYT reports that the partnership between the CIA and Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU) began in late February 2014, when former president Viktor Yanukovych fled to Russia. This cooperation was proposed by Valentyn Nalyvaichenko, who became the head of the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU).

 

 

 

 

Ukraine is so deeply connected with the US and directly positioned next to Russia. I understand that this is a huge safety concern for the country. 

Edited August 25 by Luke

[Luke]

The US, throughout its history, had brutal attacks, against international law against many targets/countries. They are closely involved in Ukraine affairs to bring them closer to their umbrella. They operate unknown military locations in ukraine, very close to russias border, that, for what it's worth, can be used similarly to black sites used in the war of terror campaign. Combine that now with active financing for pro nato, eu politics in ukraine via the euro maidan:  https://jacobin.com/2022/02/maidan-protests-neo-nazis-russia-nato-crimea -->>>>

 

US officials, unhappy with the scuttled EU deal, saw a similar chance in the Maidan protests. Just two months before they broke out, the NED’s then president, pointing to Yanukovych’s European outreach, wrote that “the opportunities are considerable, and there are important ways Washington could help.” In practice, this meant funding groups like New Citizen, which the Financial Times reported “played a big role in getting the protest up and running,” led by a pro-EU opposition figure. Journalist Mark Ames discovered the organization had received hundreds of thousands of dollars from US democracy promotion initiatives.

 

All of this gets ignored. Russia has nothing to say, Ukraine can do what it wants and get more and more threatening weapons...you tell me where that leads...

[Luke]

But hey, there are, as I said before, Americans and others who would throw a party if China, Russia, North Korea, etc crumble and they could come and install a president who will pick up the phone from Washington. But expect some resistance...

 

My 2cts for what it's worth  Cheers! 

 

Edited August 25 by Luke

[UK]

43 minutes ago, Luke said:

The US, throughout its history, had brutal attacks, against international law against many targets/countries. They are closely involved in Ukraine affairs to bring them closer to their umbrella. They operate unknown military locations in ukraine, very close to russias border, that, for what it's worth, can be used similarly to black sites used in the war of terror campaign. Combine that now with active financing for pro nato, eu politics in ukraine via the euro maidan:  https://jacobin.com/2022/02/maidan-protests-neo-nazis-russia-nato-crimea -->>>>

 

US officials, unhappy with the scuttled EU deal, saw a similar chance in the Maidan protests. Just two months before they broke out, the NED’s then president, pointing to Yanukovych’s European outreach, wrote that “the opportunities are considerable, and there are important ways Washington could help.” In practice, this meant funding groups like New Citizen, which the Financial Times reported “played a big role in getting the protest up and running,” led by a pro-EU opposition figure. Journalist Mark Ames discovered the organization had received hundreds of thousands of dollars from US democracy promotion initiatives.

 

All of this gets ignored. Russia has nothing to say, Ukraine can do what it wants and get more and more threatening weapons...you tell me where that leads...

 

Luca, I am 100 percent sure, that most Ukrainians (maybe except for a few in Donbass) genuinelly wanted to move to the west, as they do now, even more, after all they have endured!

 

Also: "Well, of course America’s done bad things, but one needs to look at the whole track record"

 

Sorry, but this post of yours sounds to me like blaming democracy for its minuses (the worst system, except all the other), or Buffett, for not giving up 1 or whatever percent of his net worth, he will leave for his family:)

 

Or can you tell me then, which alternative is better? Would you personally would like to live under Russian/N. Korean/Venezuelan or even Chinese system? Why then people from all over the world flock to the western world in general and US in particullar? 

 

Btw, Luca: https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/2324121/more-germany-in-lithuania-vilnius-drafts-new-strategy-for-relations-with-berlin

 

For the record, I welcome and thankful for this foreign interference of Germany into our affairs no less as from US, the more, the better:)

 

Edited August 25 by UK

[Luke]

8 minutes ago, UK said:

Luca, I am 100 percent sure, that most Ukrainians (maybe except for a few in Donbass) genuinelly wanted to move to the west, as they do now, even more, after all they have endured!

This is not even the point. It's about the security of the country Russia and its citizens.

8 minutes ago, UK said:

Also: "Well, of course America’s done bad things, but one needs to look at the whole track record"

I don't think Putin/Russia look at the whole track record of America to assess their military security. Its enough to see where the US simply does what it wants against any rules. You deserve no more trust than China deserves, or even Russia. Everyone is spying against each other, as is the US spying against Germany as an example. The US would be equally willing to steal technology as China would. 

8 minutes ago, UK said:

Sorry, but this post of yours sounds to me like blaming democracy for its minuses (the worst system, except all the other), or Buffett, for not giving up 1 or whatever percent of his net worth, he will leave for his family:)

Where have I blamed democracy? I am simply talking about russias security perspective. If you don't consider that at all then you risk conflict, as we can visibly see now. The CIA bases, and millions of foreign funding are just one piece of evidence that Ukraine is not sovereign. Highly corrupt showplace of large military powers...

8 minutes ago, UK said:

Or can you tell me then, which alternative is better? Would you personally would like to live under Russian/N. Korean/Venezuelan or even Chinese system? Why then people from all over the world flock to the western world in general and US in particullar? 

This is not the discussion at all, it's about the interest of countries, including Russia and China. 

[Luke]

So if the US build out their military presence in ukraine that way, ukraine has to expect response from its neighbor. As would Canada from the US if there would be Chinese bases building out close to the border. There is enough public evidence even for amateurs like us to see its problematic. Then imagine what kind of information russian secret services have about interference...

 

If you want to argue that its justified to use your military to sabotage Russias security and to move a foreign country towards a zone of influence that you control, then I disagree with you. If you think you are allowed to do it because "democracy" then I disagree. The US wouldn't accept 1/10th of what they did with ukraine if China would do it in Canada, Mexico or whatever. 

[John Hjorth]

13 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

... I am not sure how long you have been around but Sowjet Russia has a history of making threats - the most famous one was Khrushevs  shoes scene at the United nations. You sort to know even they are losing when they do this stuff. This all bully playbook. ...

 

For those interested in what @Spekulatius is alluding to :

 

United Nations - Stories from the UN achive : Did Khrushchev bang his shoe at the UN?.

[UK]

25 minutes ago, UK said:

 

Luca, I am 100 percent sure, that most Ukrainians (maybe except for a few in Donbass) genuinelly wanted to move to the west, as they do now, even more, after all they have endured!

 

Also: "Well, of course America’s done bad things, but one needs to look at the whole track record"

 

Sorry, but this post of yours sounds to me like blaming democracy for its minuses (the worst system, except all the other), or Buffett, for not giving up 1 or whatever percent of his net worth, he will leave for his family:)

 

Or can you tell me then, which alternative is better? Would you personally would like to live under Russian/N. Korean/Venezuelan or even Chinese system? Why then people from all over the world flock to the western world in general and US in particullar? 

 

11 minutes ago, Luke said:

This is not even the point. It's about the security of the country Russia and its citizens.

I don't think Putin/Russia look at the whole track record of America to assess their military security. Its enough to see where the US simply does what it wants against any rules. You deserve no more trust than China deserves, or even Russia. Everyone is spying against each other, as is the US spying against Germany as an example. The US would be equally willing to steal technology as China would. 

Where have I blamed democracy? I am simply talking about russias security perspective. If you don't consider that at all then you risk conflict, as we can visibly see now. The CIA bases, and millions of foreign funding are just one piece of evidence that Ukraine is not sovereign. Highly corrupt showplace of large military powers...

This is not the discussion at all, it's about the interest of countries, including Russia and China. 

 

I admit Russia has its interests. Even Putin has his, perhaps over other Russians. This reality is a tragedy for some of its neighbours, who also have interests. I am also not even saying they were completelly unprovoked. I do not know how to solve this. But I am 100 percent sure I do not want their way of life to spread behind their borders or any further either:)

 

Edited August 25 by UK

[Luke]

1 minute ago, UK said:

I admit Russia has its interests. Even Putin has his, perhaps over other Russians. This raellity is a tragedy for some of its neighbours, who also have interests. I am also not even saying they were completelly unprovoked. I do not know how to solve this. But I am 100 percent sure I do not want their way of life to spread behind their borders or any further either:)

Have you ever been to russia? Do you have friends from russia? Its a beautiful country, with beautiful culture and with beautiful people. I know multiple Russians that are just average middle-class that live a great life there, have enough money, enjoy their time with their loved ones, go fishing, whatever...of course there is poverty on the country side but I don't have to show you the poverty level in the US in certain areas...contrary to western media, many people don't necessarily hate putin and he even has quite the supporter base. It would be good for both sides to understand mutual interests, similarity in way of life and drive one gear lower and restart communications. 

[Luke]

2 minutes ago, Luke said:

It would be good for both sides to understand mutual interests, similarity in way of life and drive one gear lower and restart communications. 

Many countries see it like that btw, just look at BRICS.

 

From Ronnie Chan: 

 

 But frankly, this thing impacts everybody. And so I did devote quite a bit of time in my letter to this discussion. 3 things. Number one, I believe the capital flow in the world has been severely impacted and will change. And if a country can at will lock up people's U.S. dollar assets somewhere, will they continue to put money or assets in places which can be subjected to somebody's at will lock up, right? Even friends, allies of the United States are watching. Those guys are smart. They are not stupid, and they will do exactly the same thing as the less friendly to the United States. Nobody will talk about it. Everybody will quietly do it, right? However, [Foreign Language], sooner or later, time will -- things will service. And then it become a avalanche. And so I believe that the Ukrainian war is already setting in stage a gradual shift of capital flow directions in the world. That has been rather stable for the last 30, 40, 50, 60 years, but that has been changed. The second, that's capital flow.

 

The second one is the energy politics, which, as we all know, has always been very important to the world. And it is not a joke. 1703, Peter the Great built St. Petersburg and move its capital there, symbolizing the westward looking of Russia, right? 319 years later, finally, the west says I don't want you. Never ever before. And in some way, Russia save the Western world during the Nazi days, right? And so for the first time, they say I don't want you. So Putin said, I will go east. And that's why it benefits China. It can get energy and food, which both are deficient in China, especially energy, a lot easier than otherwise. And so when they look east and when China benefits, our business benefits, right? I can go on a lot more detail, but forget about it. Number 3, inflation. Did the West before they react to the Ukrainian war, factor in the possibility of inflation such as shortage of food right, and energy cost? And that will have ramification around the world. Think about this. Famine always creates revolutions and social unrest, right? And Africa, forget about it. I know I'm into too much detail. I know again, yes, tons of stories. Africa will suffer. And you will see migrants from Africa that go across the Mediterranean into Europe. And so you have all these. Why is America going to Venezuela, Iran, Saudi Arabia and UAE, right? The first 2 are debt enemies. The President are begging them, please produce more energy. And those guys just go like that, right? Ignore it. And even Saudi Arabia and UAE, they are not listening either. And so that's why the United States have to relax at least relax -- talking about relaxing some of the restriction on trade with China. [Foreign Language] Sorry for the Chinese, the Cantonese. Sorry. Anyway, so I think that -- and all that means that China will benefit. I think China will have a better time in the coming couple of years. And then, of course, you have the domestic situation in the United States that worries me no end. The Roe and Wade, that being reversed. That is just the beginning. You will see a lot more social divide to come, especially if Trump would come back in a few years. But even if not, I think that the division there is serious.

[UK]

37 minutes ago, Luke said:

Have you ever been to russia? Do you have friends from russia? Its a beautiful country, with beautiful culture and with beautiful people. I know multiple Russians that are just average middle-class that live a great life there, have enough money, enjoy their time with their loved ones, go fishing, whatever...of course there is poverty on the country side but I don't have to show you the poverty level in the US in certain areas...contrary to western media, many people don't necessarily hate putin and he even has quite the supporter base. It would be good for both sides to understand mutual interests, similarity in way of life and drive one gear lower and restart communications. 

 

Of course I had. I have traveled to Russia and Ukraine since I was like five years old, because I had lived in USSR until I was nine and we literaly could not go elsewhere:). Later I worked for some projects there. I speak Russian, I love their literature, I have lot of former Russians or Belarusians in my circle and I have nothing against most of its people, as against people of Iran, Venezuela and perhaps N. Korea. Their regime is the problem though. It is their and some minority's interests above others. Look at Venezuela or N. Korea, this is a way Russia is going now too and nobody ask the opinion of the average Russian or he is going to a jail for 20 yers for expressing any. I was also much more optimistic about China and CCP once, but I am not sure anymore (at least for now). I like Chinese too:).

[Luke]

28 minutes ago, UK said:

 

Of course I had. I have traveled to Russia and Ukraine since I was like five years old, because I had lived in USSR until I was nine and we literaly could not go elsewhere:). Later I worked for some projects there. I speak Russian, I love their literature, I have lot of former Russians or Belarusians in my circle and I have nothing against most of its people, as against people of Iran, Venezuela and perhaps N. Korea. Their regime is the problem though. It is their and some minority's interests above others. Look at Venezuela or N. Korea, this is a way Russia is going now too and nobody ask the opinion of the average Russian or he is going to a jail for 20 yers for expressing any. I was also much more optimistic about China and CCP once, but I am not sure anymore (at least for now). I like Chinese too:).

Is Russia going the way of North Korea?? I really don't think that's an accurate description. North Korea is so far behind in development and Russia has a pretty good industrial base from which they can work with. It's just looking for other partners which ARE still there...China, India, Saudis, BRICS...

 

Freedom of speech is limited yes, whatever, doesn't matter to the large majority which is politically relatively uninterested. Would not be my perfect system. I have my doubts about the "freedom" in the US too, look at Snowden, look at the deep connections of capital, parties, and the military. Look at how the interest of the majority has been ignored for decades. I don't think the US can point fingers quite frankly. 

[Luke]

I am much more optimistic of the industrial base that was developed in china the last 20 years then what happened in the US. Those things will be the ones that matter, supply-chains, manufacturing power, control of investment allocation, and banks, access to natural resources, access to large talent pool and university network, a large science base, a hard-working population and work ethic, undividedness, and political stability. 

 

Most of these things China does better hence I think China will do better over time than most countries. 

Edited August 25 by Luke

[Spekulatius]

Russias industrial  base is pitiful and yes they can export energy to China, but the cost to build the infrastructure is huge and it will be paid by Russia, either via loans or discounted prices. In any case, they will get much less for their energy exports then they would from Europe.

 

Over the long term, they will become China’s gas station which won’t be a great economic outcome.

[John Hjorth]

I did some reading today about Mr. Putin, purposed to refresh my own memory on factual basic data about him and other stuff that I thought of relevance.

 

Putin is born on October 7^th 1952, so he can be around and de facto lead and rule Russia for a long time still, depending on his health development over time, unless somebody succeeds in overturning and or removing him, one way or another.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

As it has been touched above by @Luke somewhere, it appears as the Russian population does not care for, or are interested in the affairs and the well being of its country, being disengaged and without real interest, so in a way the Russian people has got what they have asked for, by 'friendly self-service' from an enterprising autocrat.

 

A change in the Russian people policical minds and attitudes towards politics and own democratic responsibilities are imperative for a change to the better.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Today, I also stumbled on this, wich I consider great informative and casual reading / listening, for those who may be interested :

 

Website : Дворец для Путина. История самой большой взятки [<- English : 'Palace for Putin. The history of the biggest bribe']. palace.navalny.com.

 

Hint : Fire up under Google Earth, search for "Praskoveevka, Krasnodar kraj, Russia", look towards the coast southbound from there [It's so big, that you really can't miss it, if you do not zoom in too much for starters].

 

The damn thing is real, and is actually there.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

The man is an anachronism.

Edited August 25 by John Hjorth
Spelling

[John Hjorth]

New Ukrainian hardware ready for implementation :

 

 

 

[Spekulatius]

@John Hjorth my guess is that those Russian that do care and have some eduction will leave the country. People are a countries  biggest resource by far, so the brain drain will just slowly bleed out Russia in the long run.

 

Putin sees himself  as a modern day Czar playing a 19 century rules in the 21 Century. He truly is an anachronism, palace and all.

 

And Navalny is dead.