Russia-Ukrainian War

[John Hjorth]

Thanks @UK & @changegonnacome,

 

If this Ukrainian situation ends up with Russia getting - Europes and NATOs - calling it 'blessing' would be a far fetch - perhaps the word 'acceptance' is more appropriate to use about such an outcome -, then I don't believe one iota that the man - and by that, Russia - will stop here and call it a day.

 

This is for me personally based on my own personal layman judgement that this person suffers from a mental illness or from one or more severe personal disorders, so his behavioral patterns aren't rational in the ordinary sense, perhaps combined with psycopathy related to at least what he's actually doing to the Russian people and its future.

Edited December 14, 2023 by John Hjorth

[ValueArb]

41 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

The problem in Ukraine (or Afghanistan/Iraq).....is a very simple one......they ultimately aren't strategically important to the USA.......therefore resolve and perseverance as compared to the incumbent forces in the region is lacking......you can be a great military power but resolve & perseverance isn't measured in warheads & artillery. The Taliban couldnt compete militatrily with US forces.....but they out competed them in resolve & perseverance and won.

 

I'd agree that both Afghanistan and Iraq aren't strategically important to the US. But hopefully both parties should realize how strategically important Ukraine is. Essentially it's collapse gets Putin nearly halfway back to the geographic reach and economic power of the USSR. 

 

 

41 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

Well my rule of thumb is don't get involved in a war for 10 seconds that you wouldn't be willing to be involved in for 100yrs. 

 

 

 

We have been helping defend Europe from Russia for nearly 80 years. This is just an extension of that effort.

[cubsfan]

2 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

The problem in Ukraine (or Afghanistan/Iraq).....is a very simple one......they ultimately aren't strategically important to the USA.......therefore resolve and perseverance as compared to the incumbent forces in the region is lacking......you can be a great military power but resolve & perseverance isn't measured in warheads & artillery. The Taliban couldnt compete militatrily with US forces.....but they out competed them in resolve & perseverance and won.

 

Here we are in Ukraine what less than 24 months after the war started with US political leadership withholding funding and talking about the next round of funding being tied to an 'end game', an end game with battle lines drawn with some 20% of Ukraine under Russian occupation......so 22 months in and the 'West' is lagging in resolve & perseverance cause really Ukraine isnt strategically important to us. We rode in like heroes telling Zellensky not to negotiate with Putin when Russia occupied 5% of Ukraine cause we had his back and here we are. 20% of Ukraine gone, talking about an end game.

 

Now take the other side of the coin....Russia.....in 22 months Ukraine's concubine status, its neutrality remains a high priority objective for Russia......the check mate element here though is simple and its the resolve and perseverance elemnt........forget 22 months.....in 22 years......in a 100yrs years.....Ukraine will remain strategically important to Russia.....Russia's resolve and perseverance as regards Ukraine is almost infinite as compared to ours. 

 

We did the Ukrainian people a disservice it seems with our blowhard talk of support and standing ovations for Zelensky in 2022......Zelensky taught he was selling us the war when in fact we were selling him our (false) support cause it felt righteous and good in the moment.

 

What does Buffet say - dont own a stock for 10 seconds that you wouldnt be willing to own for 10yrs.

 

Well my rule of thumb is don't get involved in a war for 10 seconds that you wouldn't be willing to be involved in for 100yrs. 

 

 

Your view is well taken.

 

We have however supplied > $100B in arms to Ukraine. An enormous show of support. I do think the line for the USA can be drawn at sending troops. And if we withhold funds due to internal politics of the southern border, that’s ok too.

Europe can step up, as it maybe in THEIR strategic interest. .

 

It is in OUR strategic interest if you consider the ripple effect to China/Taiwan.

 

But your point can be debated.

 

Personally, if Ukraine wasn’t so corrupt, it would make the aid argument easier.

But they have also fought bravely and appear willing to die for their country.

 

That should count for something.

 

personally, they think victory is stopping Russia, letting them have Crimea & The Donbas, not the total victory Ukraine demands. 

[ValueArb]

2 hours ago, cubsfan said:

Your view is well taken.

 

We have however supplied > $100B in arms to Ukraine. An enormous show of support. I do think the line for the USA can be drawn at sending troops. And if we withhold funds due to internal politics of the southern border, that’s ok too.

Europe can step up, as it maybe in THEIR strategic interest. .

 

It is in OUR strategic interest if you consider the ripple effect to China/Taiwan.

 

But your point can be debated.

 

Personally, if Ukraine wasn’t so corrupt, it would make the aid argument easier.

But they have also fought bravely and appear willing to die for their country.

 

That should count for something.

 

personally, they think victory is stopping Russia, letting them have Crimea & The Donbas, not the total victory Ukraine demands. 

 

I quibble with the "$100B in arms" accounting the administration wants us to believe. Taking equipment out of storage that is so old that it's too obsolete for our troops to use and then marking it up to present day prices is misleading. Nearly everything we've sent to Ukraine (Javelins, ATACMS, Abrams, Bradleys) was ready to be scrapped, and we have tons more of all of them in storage that we'll never use. 

 

And I wish they'd understand that Russia where they are is only a temporary "victory".

[cubsfan]

^^ Fair enough. But they are still deadly & effective weapons I presume?  

[Eng12345]

I think its obvious at this point that barring some major change in conditions the war will be stalemated along the current battle lines essentially.

 

So my general comment is - why not sue for peace on the current battle lines? We have provided so much aid and the Ukrainians have fought bravely and successfully defended their country from a much superior force. I think that's something to be proud of and hang your hat on. 

 

From there would it be that unfeasible to create a strong defensive line and park an American armor division in Ukraine permanently? Similar to how we have done with Poland and Korea. 

 

I have not seen any talking heads really push that possibility - is it just unpalatable and unacceptable to Russians? Ukrainians? or American people? 

Edited December 15, 2023 by Eng12345

[schin]

3 hours ago, Eng12345 said:

I think its obvious at this point that barring some major change in conditions the war will be stalemated along the current battle lines essentially.

 

So my general comment is - why not sue for peace on the current battle lines? We have provided so much aid and the Ukrainians have fought bravely and successfully defended their country from a much superior force. I think that's something to be proud of and hang your hat on. 

 

From there would it be that unfeasible to create a strong defensive line and park an American armor division in Ukraine permanently? Similar to how we have done with Poland and Korea. 

 

I have not seen any talking heads really push that possibility - is it just unpalatable and unacceptable to Russians? Ukrainians? or American people? 

 

There has some long ass wars.... and this Ukraine and Russia is a rounding error. I mean... You would think Cuba or North Korea would tap out with populations being pissed at the lack of progress and innovation.. yet, they keep on going... 

 

https://www.worldatlas.com/history/the-longest-wars-in-human-history.html

[John Hjorth]

It's Friday, so ...

 

 

[Xerxes]

 

[ValueArb]

16 hours ago, cubsfan said:

^^ Fair enough. But they are still deadly & effective weapons I presume?  

 

Sure, the M1A1 still superior to anything the Russians have, especially in crew protection. We do spend money updating them before sending them to Ukraine so they have good armor and electronics (but not the latest armor and electronics). The Javelins we sent them are the first version and obviously very effective, just not as good as the current versions we use. The early version ATACMs are still devastating, but we gave them the cluster munition versions that we aren't allowed to use any more, but not the big warhead versions they'll need for the Russian navy, bridges, etc.

 

Finally, the Bradley knocked out more Russian tanks in Iraq than the Abrams did, and I think the M2A2 ODS we give Ukraine isn't much behind the latest M2A3 in features. 

[Spekulatius]

Ukraine needs an air force. Not since WW1 has any war being won without dominating the air. I think that's the  missing piece that Ukraine needs. It tough because Russia still has viable anti aircraft defenses but a win isn't possible without having air presence. Otherwise it's cracking trenches bunkers with stormtroopers artillery / Himars and that's a slow and bloody process.

[ValueArb]

35 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Ukraine needs an air force. Not since WW1 has any war being won without dominating the air. I think that's the  missing piece that Ukraine needs. It tough because Russia still has viable anti aircraft defenses but a win isn't possible without having air presence. Otherwise it's cracking trenches bunkers with stormtroopers artillery / Himars and that's a slow and bloody process.

 

They also need SEAD to take out Russian SAMs or giving them better planes still forces them to fly out of SAM range where its tough to hit targets from. I've often wondered why we don't give them the F-117, its a 40 year old first gen stealth technology that was designed to hit SAM sites and we have a bunch in storage unused.

 

As far as other planes in storage, we could give them many almost for free, just refurbishment costs. Note that I'm no military expert so most of these suggestions are probably absurd, but just going to show how huge our inventory of obsolete airplanes is and many are far superior to what Ukraine is flying. 

 

This should be nothing different than what we did for China before WW2 with the Flying Tigers, giving them reasonably modern fighters and volunteer pilots. But the reason the Biden administration won't crack open the storage is they don't want to see a F-16 dropping bombs on a Russian city.

 

http://www.amarcexperience.com/ui/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=205&Itemid=274

 

68 Fairchild Republic A-10C Thunderbolt - Not a huge fan because the gun is too inaccurate for close air support, but basically a great bomb truck and the C version has the latest/best targeting systems.

 

55 General Atomics MQ-1B Predator - Not sure how survivable it is in contested space but seems like they could use it over the black sea, for recon, and even suicide strikes on Russian SAM sites and other high value targets.

 

126 General Dynamics F-16C Falcon - There are 208 A/B/Ds there too. Better than Ukrainian MIGs in many ways but most specifically it can carry and target all the NATO ordnance while Ukraine has had to jerry rig their MIGs to carry.

 

36 Grumman EA-6B Prowler - Not sure if its out of date but we only stopped using it 14 years ago for electronic warfare to support ground strikes. 

 

5 Grumman OV-1D Mohawk - You want to kill drones? This is designed for observation and light ground attack. But it has a 4 hour endurance so it can orbit for hours waiting for a drone to be detected, fly 300 MPH to get to target quickly and can then slow to under 100 MPH giving it plenty of gun time each pass.

 

103 Lockheed C-130E Hercules  - There are 312 total Hercules versions in storage. Give them some for a fast cargo moving force for flying equipment cross border, delivering close to front, dropping troops behind the lines, etc.

 

140 Lockheed P-3C Orion - Submarine tracking.

 

102 McDonnell Douglas F/A-18C Hornet - There are 163 of all types in storage, and while I don't know much about it has to be better than the F-16 because it's two numbers higher? More seriously, pretty sure it can carry all the latest NATO weapons.

 

10 Boeing E-3G Sentry - AWACs to detect low flying intruders.

 

That's igoring all the other cool planes, like the massive number of F-14s, F-15s, harriers, B-52s and B1 bombers and the hundreds of attack helicopters.

[Xerxes]

[ValueArb]

So much for holding our European allies to the 2% commitment.

[changegonnacome]

The EU, with the best of intentions, have done Ukraine in my opinion a great disservice by accepting their EU application and moving them to candidate status in recent days.

 

Zelensky, his country in ruins, principally as I've stated before from a failed policy of pivoting aggressively and recklessly to the West, as the leader of a country lets not forget that sits at the nexus point between the West and the East, continues to double down on this failed strategy. Poking the Russian bear again with EU membership talk when he is literally running out of money, men and munitions is a foolhardy move. Continuing with this plan, there wont be a Ukraine left to join anything - the EU, NATO etc.

 

While the EU is an economic union, the elite in Russia I'm sure view it as an interim step to NATO membership....regardless its ensured that whatever chance there was at frozen conflict driven by a Russian pause has gone out the window this last week......Russia will be redoubling its efforts now to re-take Kherson and then Odessa aiming to cripple Ukraine economically on a permanent basis. 

 

Battle line have moved hardly at all in the second half of 2023.......suspect 2024 will be the year of the Russian counter-offensive with increasing slices of Ukraine falling under Russian control testing the WH & Congress's resolve in an election year......its tough to fund a war at the best of times but what voters hate funding the most is a war (albeit a proxy one) where the US is demonstrably 'losing'.

 

Russian election interference wont require bots on facebook this time - it will be Russian victories in Kherson or Odessa next summer.

 

The politics in D.C. need to stop now - we are in a quagmire in Ukraine, no doubt about it......waist deep in the big muddy......the only move forward is too triple down on Ukranian support and give them whatever we can/should to hurt Russia and allow for some version of a Ukrainian victory with a small v.

[changegonnacome]

“‘People Snatchers’: Ukraine’s Recruiters Use Harsh Tactics to Fill Ranks” -

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/15/world/europe/ukraine-military-recruitment.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare 

Ukraine running out of soldiers - Zelensky had to sack his whole recruitment apparatus earlier this year…as they were literally selling draft dodging get out of the war tickets to fighting age men. The corruption in Ukraine remains completely under appreciated in the West

 

The Ukrainians need to be sent weapons & money quickly for a final push to secure some incremental victories and get to the negotiating table. 
 

Today they are asking for weapons & money….the longer this goes on they will start asking for men. Let’s not get to that point.

[cubsfan]

44 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

“‘People Snatchers’: Ukraine’s Recruiters Use Harsh Tactics to Fill Ranks” -

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/15/world/europe/ukraine-military-recruitment.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare 

Ukraine running out of soldiers - Zelensky had to sack his whole recruitment apparatus earlier this year…as they were literally selling draft dodging get out of the war tickets to fighting age men. The corruption in Ukraine remains completely under appreciated in the West

 

The Ukrainians need to be sent weapons & money quickly for a final push to secure some incremental victories and get to the negotiating table. 
 

Today they are asking for weapons & money….the longer this goes on they will start asking for men. Let’s not get to that point.

Yeah, made this point before- Ukraine running out of men- everyone says “no way”.

Unfortunately, it’s tough to believe a corrupt, what’s effectively a dictatorship that doesn’t allow free speech.  You never really know where you’re at after that supposed steamroller spring offensive.

[Spekulatius]

Good summary of the current state in Ukraine:

 

[CGJB]

22 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

The Ukrainians need to be sent weapons & money quickly for a final push to secure some incremental victories and get to the negotiating table.

 

I could be wrong, but I doubt the Russians would negotiate with Zelensky. They tried that in Istanbul last year and the talks were making great progress only to be scuttled by the US/UK. That telegraphed to the Russians that Ukraine is a puppet state. So they will likely only negotiate with the US (with maybe a sprinkling of some European countries at the table for decoration). But Biden would have to eat a lot of crow to reach any peace deal that could realistically be achieved.

Think about it. Biden went to Warsaw last year and gave an angry speech that he ended by invoking God and calling for regime change in Russia. He was going to do whatever it took to give Ukraine whatever it needed to drive the Russians out of the Donbas and out of Crimea. No way does he want to shake hands with the Russian leadership he wanted toppled, and acknowledge that Crimea and the Donbas are now part of Russia.

What does Biden want? Right now, he just wants to keep this thing going past the elections in November 2024. He doesn't care how many Ukrainians and Russians needlessly die in the meantime.

[ValueArb]

4 hours ago, CGJB said:

 

I could be wrong, but I doubt the Russians would negotiate with Zelensky. They tried that in Istanbul last year and the talks were making great progress only to be scuttled by the US/UK. That telegraphed to the Russians that Ukraine is a puppet state. So they will likely only negotiate with the US (with maybe a sprinkling of some European countries at the table for decoration). But Biden would have to eat a lot of crow to reach any peace deal that could realistically be achieved.

Think about it. Biden went to Warsaw last year and gave an angry speech that he ended by invoking God and calling for regime change in Russia. He was going to do whatever it took to give Ukraine whatever it needed to drive the Russians out of the Donbas and out of Crimea. No way does he want to shake hands with the Russian leadership he wanted toppled, and acknowledge that Crimea and the Donbas are now part of Russia.

What does Biden want? Right now, he just wants to keep this thing going past the elections in November 2024. He doesn't care how many Ukrainians and Russians needlessly die in the meantime.

 

I doubt this narrative has much to do with reality. Zelenskyy has been firm that he doesn't want a repeat of the Minsk accords, meaning that he knows Putin can never be trusted. Russia is just trying to save face here by calling Ukraine a puppet, they tried to bully their way to an agreement and failed. 

 

There can never be peace in the Ukraine until Russia withdraws. Any agreement short of that is just a temporary cease fire while Russia rebuilds for the next invasion. The idea that Biden is preventing this is silly. 

[ValueArb]

On 12/16/2023 at 1:01 AM, changegonnacome said:

The EU, with the best of intentions, have done Ukraine in my opinion a great disservice by accepting their EU application and moving them to candidate status in recent days.

 

Zelensky, his country in ruins, principally as I've stated before from a failed policy of pivoting aggressively and recklessly to the West, as the leader of a country lets not forget that sits at the nexus point between the West and the East, continues to double down on this failed strategy. Poking the Russian bear again with EU membership talk when he is literally running out of money, men and munitions is a foolhardy move. Continuing with this plan, there wont be a Ukraine left to join anything - the EU, NATO etc.

 

While the EU is an economic union, the elite in Russia I'm sure view it as an interim step to NATO membership....regardless its ensured that whatever chance there was at frozen conflict driven by a Russian pause has gone out the window this last week......Russia will be redoubling its efforts now to re-take Kherson and then Odessa aiming to cripple Ukraine economically on a permanent basis. 

 

Battle line have moved hardly at all in the second half of 2023.......suspect 2024 will be the year of the Russian counter-offensive with increasing slices of Ukraine falling under Russian control testing the WH & Congress's resolve in an election year......its tough to fund a war at the best of times but what voters hate funding the most is a war (albeit a proxy one) where the US is demonstrably 'losing'.

 

Russian election interference wont require bots on facebook this time - it will be Russian victories in Kherson or Odessa next summer.

 

The politics in D.C. need to stop now - we are in a quagmire in Ukraine, no doubt about it......waist deep in the big muddy......the only move forward is too triple down on Ukranian support and give them whatever we can/should to hurt Russia and allow for some version of a Ukrainian victory with a small v.

 

Russia doesn't have the ability to mount an effective counter-offensive or it would have been them on the offensive this summer. There is no Russian bear, it's a cub with a small third world economy with population large enough to feed a ton of raw recruits into the grinder. They simply can't afford to replace most of their lost material that was built during the Soviet era when they had eastern Europe and all of the republics still enslaved. 

 

My guess is another rebellion in the ranks occurs before Russia can mount any kind of effective offensive, and this time the rebels aren't going to stand down early.

[CGJB]

16 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

 

I doubt this narrative has much to do with reality.

 

Ha! We'll just have to agree to disagree. But I'd much, much rather be holding Putin's hand right now than Zelensky's. And I don't think that will change. Time will tell.

 

[Libs]

On 12/17/2023 at 7:23 AM, Spekulatius said:

Good summary of the current state in Ukraine:

 

Thanks Spec. 

Edited December 20, 2023 by Libs

[Xerxes]

https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/defense-aerospace-report/id1228868129?i=1000639121637

 

Great end of the year discussion for us, watching from the peanut gallery  

 

 

 

 

[changegonnacome]

On 12/17/2023 at 10:23 AM, Spekulatius said:

Good summary of the current state in Ukraine:

 

Well worth a view.

 

 

 

Stand out slide.

 

Cant remember here who was trying to categorize the Russian’s as some 3rd world country that had lost its access to resources and was somehow incompetent and impotent from a military industrial standpoint. Review the slide above and realize that on the left you’re looking at the ‘West’ emptying out its lockers to supply Ukraine shells etc……then on the right it’s Russia with a little help from its friends.

 

You take the above , add in the simple population advantage Russia has plus their GDP advantage.
 

Then layer on the fact that the Russian’s are their own masters here in terms of funding the war….plus their own captive military industrial complex to produce what they need (artillery, tanks, drones, missiles)

 

Ukraine by contrast is running the war on shaky welfare payments from the USA/UK/EU……and the consumables (artillery, tanks) are coming not from their own captive industrial base….but the combined industrial bases of the West which has been shown during Covid and during this conflict to be quite limited relative to the past and relative to China/Russia who never de-industrialized as we clearly have.

 

Ukraine is in a terrible situation……and without a decisive step change in the quantum and scope of our support, they are doomed….perhaps Putin sits tight till Nov 2024 to see who takes the WH….but I suspect not…..at a certain point I think he drives to take more territory bordering the Black Sea all the way to Odessa if possible. Time is on his side - this could be a 2025 or 2026 project for all he cares….time is not the friend of Ukraine or the West’s flagging support.