Russia-Ukrainian War

[Spekulatius]

6 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

What the hell kind of attack is that?  It looks more like target practice.  North Korea might be doing more damage to their reputation as a credible military threat than anything by showing how woefully unprepared and unskilled they are.

Just my guess, but they do as they are told. They probably have a Russian commander who doesn’t give a damn and spends them as he sees fit. He probably got the message from above  that he has more supplies for the meatgrinder coming if the current batch is gone.

[John Hjorth]

6 hours ago, dwy000 said:

... North Korea might be doing more damage to their reputation as a credible military threat than anything by showing how woefully unprepared and unskilled they are.

 

@dwy000,

 

Please, take it easy.

[Spekulatius]

I said it for some time, but there is a covert war going on in Europe:

https://www.csce.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/Spotlight-on-the-Shadow-War-Website.pdf

 

Asssinations, GPS jamming , infrastructure attacks, election interference, cyberattacks. The cut of the fiber optics cable in the baltics see didn’t made it on the list yet, as the cutoff date was November 2024.

 

FWIW, WW1 started for lesser reasons than those above . Those who think there can be peace with Putin in charge need to think again. It’s not just about Ukraine.  Europe is in a covert war with Russia.

Edited December 15 by Spekulatius

[Spekulatius]

I have an idea why North Korean losses will be high:

 

[Spekulatius]

What’s up with the exploding police cars and banks to day in Russia:

Remember, it can all end quickly as it did today exactly 35 years ago:

 

[Xerxes]

 

Pretty good review on the topic 

[John Hjorth]

I appreciate the share here, @Spekulatius,

 

I have no clue here, actually.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

I'm following Reuters and Associated Press - about daily - as my primary sources as basis for posting in this topic, with the intent to try not to post stuff not verified the generally acknowledged and accepted way by professional journalism occupied at news media.

 

But no doubt, that social media now has become an important online source of instant news. The hard question is what of it is fake and false.

[John Hjorth]

What does people here on CofB&F think about this? :

 

 

 

[Spekulatius]

@John Hjorth I don’t think the Russian economy is going to implode alls of a sudden. Thats doesn’t tend to be what happens in these situations . What does happen is that a war economy is eating itself and hollowing out to the point. the evidence is that they have to outsource to North Korean mercenaries, which likely isn’t very effective and comes at a huge financial cost to Russia, furthering their decline.

 

Also related to this it’s instructive to look at Putin’s annual press conference. he plays the cool poker player here , except he plays with other people lives and gambles his country.

 

The whole thing takes an ridiculous 5 hours, he proposes a missile duel , claims Russians are bored without war and other absurd claims:

 

Edited Sunday at 01:16 AM by Spekulatius

[John Hjorth]

1 hour ago, Xerxes said:

 

Pretty good review on the topic 

 

Yeah, @Xerxes,

 

Yet, the further interest rate hike did not happen :

 

Associated Press - News [December 20^th 2024] : Russia’s central bank holds off on interest rate hike amid friction between inflation, war spending.

[John Hjorth]

5 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

@John Hjorth I don’t think the Russian economy is going to implode alls of a sudden. Thats doesn’t tend to be what happens in these situations . What does happen is that a war economy is eating itself and hollowing out to the point. the evidence is that they have to outsource to North Korean mercenaries, which likely isn’t very effective and comes at a huge financial cost to Russia, furthering their decline.

 

Also related to this it’s instructive to look at Putin’s annual press conference. he plays the cool poker player here , except he plays with other people lives and gambles his country.

 

The whole thing takes an ridiculous 5 hours, he proposes a missile duel , claims Russians are bored without war and other absurd claims:

 

 

@Spekulatius,

 

I'm not going to listen to what this person has to say about Russias internal affairs and the economic status and reality for Russia. All that comes from  him in those regards is spin, propaganda and lies, to keep his ignorant, stupid and naive citizens in check, in coorporation with his socalled oligarch 'friends'. The Russian population will have to pay a sky high price, when all this eventually is over and his is gone forever.

 

It's a flawed aproach to try to listen to him to get an understanding of what is going on, if you ask me. What matters is what he actually does. And that's not always obvious in the first place, disguised with an artificial beard, blue sunglasses, a hat and a beige long coat - all KGB-style. Cheat, or be cheated, that's the mans game. Unfortunately, one has to admit that he is pretty good at his game, i.e. red lines and all that. All short term. Long term, he's already toast.

 

The only thing that works against such a person is to let him eat his own cooking, plain and simple.

Edited Sunday at 06:26 AM by John Hjorth

[Spekulatius]

@John Hjorth No, I would not listen to Putin’s 5 hours presser either. However, you can find some summaries that re useful. It is interesting and scary what a twisted personality this guy has. and compassion or moral compass whatsoever. He has imprisoned himself with his own twisted logic , just like many of the worst dictators in history have.

 

On a different but very related note there is an interested background story on Georgia, which has seen a lot of protests lately after the election . It’s run by a shady Oligarch and probably about to become a Russian puppet state again if it isn’t already:

Another covert war going on here.

Edited Sunday at 01:04 PM by Spekulatius

[Spekulatius]

Meloni, the Italy Premier has come around. Dhe was deemed Putin friendly before she won the election but now made a 180Deg U-turn:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/italy-pm-says-eu-will-not-allow-russia-others-endanger-security-through-2024-12-22/
 

 

I don’t think the German AFD will come to grips with this threat- making a deal with Putin is basically on their party statutes. These idiots put in moment of silence for Assad ousting, believe it or not.

[Spekulatius]

This was probably recorded in the 70’s but is just as true as ever. It also applies to China, perhaps even more so:

 

Edited 18 hours ago by Spekulatius

[Dinar]

On 12/22/2024 at 5:39 PM, Spekulatius said:

Meloni, the Italy Premier has come around. Dhe was deemed Putin friendly before she won the election but now made a 180Deg U-turn:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/italy-pm-says-eu-will-not-allow-russia-others-endanger-security-through-2024-12-22/
 

 

I don’t think the German AFD will come to grips with this threat- making a deal with Putin is basically on their party statutes. These idiots put in moment of silence for Assad ousting, believe it or not.

Please explain why Assad's fall was good for the Christians of Syria and the West?  Thank you.  As for Putin's compassion, are you serious?  You expect a man who voluntarily joined an organization that massacred tens of million of their own people to be a normal human being?

[Spekulatius]

@Dinar Assad regime wasn’t good for anyone. He killed hundred of thousand and even dropped gas barrel bombs on citizens. The HTS are a wildcard,  nobody knows what the outcome will be.

 

I prefer a wildcard over a dictator who’s is supported by Russia and Hezbollah and was known to be terrible.

Edited 51 minutes ago by Spekulatius

[Dinar]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

@Dinar Assad regime wasn’t good for anyone. He killed hundred of thousand and even dropped gas barrel bombs on Conti ens. The HTS are a wildcard,  nobody knows what the outcome will be.

 

I prefer a wildcard over a dictator who’s is supported by Russia and Hezbollah and was known to be terrible.

Look at Iraq or Libya.  Is the west better off now that we no longer have Khadaffi and Saddam?

[Xerxes]

On 12/8/2024 at 10:43 AM, Xerxes said:

 

The fall of Assad dynasty is directly linked to Hezbollah pulling its forces out of Syria. No doubt about it. But while Assad was ever anything close to ideal, it was a secular state, much like Saddam was a secular state in Iraq. The new power taking over in Damascus, will an islamist one, note: their counterpart in Kabul are already extending congratulations.

 

Consequence:

 

Iran loses the "bridge" between it and its allies in the South of Lebanon.

Israel will just trade a "institutional" enemy that it knew well with a "revolutionary" one that knows less well.

Russia will keep its naval base, but loose its influence in Damascus.

Turkey will be the de facto imperial winner here, displacing Moscow and Tehran

https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/dec/17/bashar-al-assad-syria-russia-moscow-putin-middle-east
 

Shortly after the beginning of the opposition offensive on Aleppo in November 2024, Russia clearly and deliberately decided not to save Assad. Analysts tend to explain this by pointing to Moscow’s war in Ukraine, which did not allow Russia to react in a timely and proper way to the new offensive by the Syrian opposition forces. This was not only about a dwindling number of soldiers, but also a decline in quality:

 

Syria had turned into a kind of cesspool for Russia’s senior military ranks who had fallen out of grace in Moscow and those officers who wanted to escape the war in Ukraine. The main allies of Russia and Assad – Iran and its proxies – have also been weakened by Tehran’s confrontation with Israel.

 

While these statements are mostly correct, they overlook another important factor: by 2024, Syria had transformed from an opportunity into an economic and political liability for Russia. Syria had lost its importance as an asset to project influence in the region. Within eight years of Russia’s intervention, a host of new – more important – factors shaping the Kremlin’s relations with the region emerged. These include Russia’s role within Opec, increased trade and intense diplomacy. Syria also lost its former significance as an element of communication with the west: the war in Ukraine both led to a reduction in contacts and became the main topic of discussion with Russia.

 

The war economy created by Assad turned out to be such a toxic environment that even Russian businessmen accustomed to many challenges could not do business in it. At the same time, Assad’s political stubbornness, his refusal to compromise with domestic opposition and regional neighbours, and the constant balancing act between Moscow and Tehran, made his regime a difficult partner.

Edited 7 hours ago by Xerxes

[Spekulatius]

9 hours ago, Dinar said:

Look at Iraq or Libya.  Is the west better off now that we no longer have Khadaffi and Saddam?

Iraq is lousy but  I think the current regime is better than Saddam. Saddam killed hundred of thousand and probably more if you count the war against Iran. Iraq nowadays has a low level civil war going on and hundreds of disappear which to me looks better than what happened under Saddam.

https://www.amnesty.org/en/location/middle-east-and-north-africa/middle-east/iraq/report-iraq/