Russia-Ukrainian War

[Xerxes]

 

The fall of Assad dynasty is directly linked to Hezbollah pulling its forces out of Syria. No doubt about it. But while Assad was ever anything close to ideal, it was a secular state, much like Saddam was a secular state in Iraq. The new power taking over in Damascus, will an islamist one, note: their counterpart in Kabul are already extending congratulations.

 

Consequence:

 

Iran loses the "bridge" between it and its allies in the South of Lebanon.

Israel will just trade a "institutional" enemy that it knew well with a "revolutionary" one that knows less well.

Russia will keep its naval base, but loose its influence in Damascus.

Turkey will be the de facto imperial winner here, displacing Moscow and Tehran

[Spekulatius]

2 hours ago, Xerxes said:

Russia will keep its naval base, but loose its influence in Damascus.

Why do you think Russia will keep their naval base?

[Xerxes]

6 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Why do you think Russia will keep their naval base?

Just a guess. No reporting. 
 

It is the bill that needs to be paid to get Moscow non-involvement. As soon as Aleppo fell, the die was cast. No longer the question of “if” rather “when”, and the “when” came really fast for Damascus. 
 

and for practical reasons, given who are the rebels’s imperial masters are, focus will be undoubtedly be eastward, against the autonomous Kurdish region. 

[Xerxes]

Putting aside the regional powers and the shifting sands and ebbs and flows in terms of their influence, the net winner could be the Syrian people, and their chance at new beginning, IF (big if) their revolution doesn’t get hijacked by “hardliners” factions within the rebel coalition. 
 

 

[cubsfan]

3 hours ago, Xerxes said:

 

The fall of Assad dynasty is directly linked to Hezbollah pulling its forces out of Syria. No doubt about it. But while Assad was ever anything close to ideal, it was a secular state, much like Saddam was a secular state in Iraq. The new power taking over in Damascus, will an islamist one, note: their counterpart in Kabul are already extending congratulations.

 

Consequence:

 

Iran loses the "bridge" between it and its allies in the South of Lebanon.

Israel will just trade a "institutional" enemy that it knew well with a "revolutionary" one that knows less well.

Russia will keep its naval base, but loose its influence in Damascus.

Turkey will be the de facto imperial winner here, displacing Moscow and Tehran

 

Good summary.

[cubsfan]

58 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

Just a guess. No reporting. 
 

It is the bill that needs to be paid to get Moscow non-involvement. As soon as Aleppo fell, the die was cast. No longer the question of “if” rather “when”, and the “when” came really fast for Damascus. 
 

and for practical reasons, given who are the rebels’s imperial masters are, focus will be undoubtedly be eastward, against the autonomous Kurdish region. 

 

Perhaps the real reason is that the rebels will have to take it away. After what Putin did for Assad, he's not going to let that happen. That base is much to valuable to him, considering his relationship with Turkey.

[Spekulatius]

40 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

Perhaps the real reason is that the rebels will have to take it away. After what Putin did for Assad, he's not going to let that happen. That base is much to valuable to him, considering his relationship with Turkey.

Turkey backs the rebels though. I think it’s in the West and Turkey‘s interests to kick the Russians out there. It‘s also in the rebels interests to kick the Russians out there and prevent them from getting foothold hold again, if I were in their shoes.

 

Who knows who is going to gain power and what their interests are and decisions will be.

[cubsfan]

^^^ That's what I mean, if I wasn't clear. Russia is not going to give up that Mediterranean  seaport given that they are captive to Turkey in access to the Mediterranean via the Black Sea.

[Dinar]

2 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Turkey backs the rebels though. I think it’s in the West and Turkey‘s interests to kick the Russians out there. It‘s also in the rebels interests to kick the Russians out there and prevent them from getting foothold hold again, if I were in their shoes.

 

Who knows who is going to gain power and what their interests are and decisions will be.

Turkey's interests are in having a fundamentalist government in Syria, which is not in the interest of the West.

[Xerxes]

“Can a butterfly flapping its wing in Amazon forest cause a hurricane in the Pacific” 

 

Sinwar successfully flapped his wings. The dominos brought down Damascus elsewhere.   
 

Turkey is interesting. 
 

Just like Iran was a net beneficiary of 2003 invasion of Iraq, the 2011 Arab uprising, the Saudi war in Yemen … at the expense of others 

 

Now turkey is the net beneficiary of the Ukraine war and the near east conflict with Israel-Palestine.
 

Turkey was able to score two major gains just in two years: Armenia and now Syria; at the expense of Iranians and Russians. Not to mention flexing its power through the control of the passage to Black Sea for military vessels. 
 

It is party time in Constantinople this Christmas. If it was being celebrated. 

Edited December 9 by Xerxes

[Xerxes]

https://apple.news/A2kn1BLAoRUGaZhTqBwbZtQ
 

Just read this one. 
pretty good read from WSJ. 

[Spekulatius]

What is interesting is how quickly these regimes disintegrate once the dominos start to fall. Syria is no exception - there was Alysia under Ghadaffi , Ceausescu in Romania, the Sha in Iran. 
 

Same could happen with Putin and Russia. There are only  handful people at the top and once the head of the snake is severed, the rest just disintegrates.

Edited December 14 by Spekulatius

[Xerxes]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

What is interesting is how quickly these regimes disintegrate once the dominos start to fall. Syria is no exception - there was Alysia under Ghadaffi , Ceausescu in Romsnis, the Sha in Iran. 
 

Same could happen with Putin and Russia. There are only  handful people at the top and once the head of the snake is severed, the rest just disintegrates.

I would disagree. 
 

it took 13 years for Assad to fall. The end may have came fast, but that doesn’t take away 13 years of staying put (granted w/ help) and surviving. 

 

For Egypt under Mubarak and Iran under the Shah, its closest ally (Obama and Carter, respectively) just step aside and let them fall. Once that happened they lost heart. 
 

The same way Moscow and Tehran just stepped aside in 2024 for Assad, and he lost heart. 
 

There are no rules to these things. 
 

Libya’ Qaddafi was ruled like herd with himself as Shepherd and once he fell. It collapsed easily as there were no strong state like institutions behind the man. 
 

In case of today’ Iran and Russia, I think power is institutionalize. There are a lot powerbrokers, and entrenched interests.

 

I think what you are describing is more possible with North Korea. With government that has leader with a strong cult of personality. 

I don’t know if I am making sense in how I am describing. 

 

Edited December 9 by Xerxes

[Xerxes]

8 hours ago, cubsfan said:

^^^ That's what I mean, if I wasn't clear. Russia is not going to give up that Mediterranean  seaport given that they are captive to Turkey in access to the Mediterranean via the Black Sea.

I don’t think there is a relation between Turkey’ control of access to the Black Sea and the port itself. 
 

The port is Russia’ only major port in “war waters”. and needs to keep it and will likely keep it. 
 

I find it, highly unlikely that Turkey will push for the new regime in Damascus to push out the Russians.
 

That would be too big of step change between Moscow and Ankara. the winner needs to leave something on the table for the other side. 

 

Edit: it is not like there is a “land access” from Russia to the port in Syria, in which case it is a “bypass” to the Strait of Bosporus. The two are independent. 

 

Edited December 9 by Xerxes

[John Hjorth]

It's a great analysis, @Xerxes,

 

A near total disaster from the perspective of imperialistic Russia and Putin, a situation evolving quickly, and spinning totally out of his control, which he has been uanable to contain, isolate, handle and steer, because he is already in up to his gills on executing on his imperialistic thoughts, ambitions and dreams elsewhere [Ukraine], caused by he is by now and already maxed out on his warfare capacity.

 

So much for the Russian 'superpower'.

 

Pretty much everything he has done within the last almost three years now has been back-firing at him - dearly - with unintended and unforeseen consequences, negative ripple-effects etc.

 

He will certainly end up in the history books not written yet, but not for what he would like, i.e. beeing a great war lord. Grandpa in his bunker has been a failure beyond repair.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Edit :

 

Bloomberg - Politics [December 9^th 2024] : Putin’s Syria Setback Threatens Key Russian Military Bases.

 

Putin, <a few days ago> :  'Let's just bomb the crap out of these terrorists! ...'

Putin, <during the weekend> : 'What??!!' 

Putin, <this monday> : [adressed at the socalled 'terrorists', called that just a few days ago] : 'We need to have some serious talks!'.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

The entertainment value is pretty hard to match! 

Edited December 9 by John Hjorth

[Xerxes]

7 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

Putin, <a few days ago> :  'Let's just bomb the crap out of these terrorists! ...'

Putin, <during the weekend> : 'What??!!' 

Putin, <this monday> : [adressed at the socalled 'terrorists'] : 'We need to have some serious talks!'.

thanks John. 
 

I think though the word “terrorist” was not used on Monday. While it was used just few days ago. 

 

Much like the West, Kremlin makes great strategic use of the word. 

[John Hjorth]

20 hours ago, Xerxes said:

thanks John. 
 

I think though the word “terrorist” was not used on Monday. While it was used just few days ago. 

 

Much like the West, Kremlin makes great strategic use of the word. 

 

Yes, @Xerxes,

 

And : Reuters [December 10^th 2024] : Satellite imagery shows Russian navy ships anchored off Syrian coast.

 

The least we should and would expect of the Russian navy to do, so there is no risk they end up on the wrong hands. What else do with those ships to make them useful and beneficial in the war with Ukraine?

Edited December 10 by John Hjorth

[Pelagic]

3 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Yes, @Xerxes,

 

And : Reuters [December 10^th 2024] : Satellite imagery shows Russian navy ships anchored off Syrian coast.

 

The least we should and would expect of the Russian navy to do, so there is no risk they end up on the wrong hands. What else do with those ships to make them useful and beneficial in the war with Ukraine?

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/09/22/the-kremlin-pulled-sailors-off-the-decrepit-aircraft-carrier-admiral-kuznetsov-and-sent-them-to-fight-and-die-in-ukraine/

 

[John Hjorth]

Thank you for sharing, @Pelagic,

 

That story reads to me personallly somewhat tragic [for the crew on that carrier] and pathetic. It seems those ships now just lay there on the waters outside the harbour of Tartous like some lame ducks, or rubber ducks. Mind provoking to me personally.

[Xerxes]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Yes, @Xerxes,

 

And : Reuters [December 10^th 2024] : Satellite imagery shows Russian navy ships anchored off Syrian coast.

 

The least we should and would expect of the Russian navy to do, so there is no risk they end up on the wrong hands. What else do with those ships to make them useful and beneficial in the war with Ukraine?

The Russians are doing the same thing I do with my car on a heavy snow day, when I have to move it a bit further. If not the snowplow rebellious crew may make good on their threat to tow my car if left there.  

[John Hjorth]

YouTube : Anders Puck Nielsen [December 12^th 2024] : What is Russia's plan for victory?

 

 

I have to admit, that Anders Puck Nielsen is a Danish talking head, but somehow, his thoughts and talks, based on his military education and experience, at least to me personally, provides some valuable insights.

 

Military logic and reason isen't, to me, personally, really like 'normal logic and reason'.

[Xerxes]

https://apple.news/A3ItqWil7SDy_wAcRc7g-LA

 

Good read. From Washington Post. 

[Xerxes]

Russian column withdrawing ... to Tartus i think

 

 

 

 

 

[Spekulatius]

North Korean attack. Reminds me of WW2 footage from the eastern front:

No vehicles , no artillery support (as far as I can tell), no camouflage even, open field…

 

 

Edited December 14 by Spekulatius

[dwy000]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

North Korean attack. Reminds me of WW2 footage from the eastern front:

No vehicles , no artillery support (as far as I can tell), no camouflage even, open field…

 

 

What the hell kind of attack is that?  It looks more like target practice.  North Korea might be doing more damage to their reputation as a credible military threat than anything by showing how woefully unprepared and unskilled they are.