Russia-Ukrainian War

[Spekulatius]

16 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

Good question actually.  I doubt Trump would want this, as it makes a settlement infinitely more difficult.  

How so. If Putin thinks he is winning, there will be no settlement, I am pretty sure about they.

 

This is a gift to a Trump. He can keep the practice in place - he doesn’t have to do anything, or he can reverse it.

[cubsfan]

^^^ Trump campaigned on no wars. He wants this war ended quickly. He's very much on record about that.  Russia is winning the war - yes. But an escalation into Russia with American missiles makes a dialogue with Russia, very much more difficult to conclude. Imagine if the Putin response to this incursion into Russia is to respond with tactical nuclear weapons? Now you have a huge mess for Europe & the US.

 

Biden is playing a very dangerous game here.

[Spekulatius]

So a Chinese vessel with a Russian captain destroyed the fiber optic link to Finnland. Deserves some response, imo.

 

[John Hjorth]

Mike, [ @cubsfan ],

 

If the above exchange between us is guiding for what's going to happen from here, as described by you above,  it's just totally devastating for us Europeans what's in the works, and about what's to happen, and we'll also - on top of that - loose a very important friend, for the future.

 

For your part, [likely - at least for you, I'm sure] the only really short term material effect is you are about to loose a lot of allies for the long term.

 

Then it's all about distinguishing the shades between friends and allies.

 

Friends back up friends,when needed, based on respect for already long term well working friendship, for friends' freedoms and rights to design and take responsibility for own lifes, to choose stance on whatever,

 

Allies concur on what they agree on, and choose to differ on anything else [most likely based on agreements written on paper].

Edited November 21 by John Hjorth

[scorpioncapital]

4 hours ago, cubsfan said:

^^^ Trump campaigned on no wars. He wants this war ended quickly. He's very much on record about that.  Russia is winning the war - yes. But an escalation into Russia with American missiles makes a dialogue with Russia, very much more difficult to conclude. Imagine if the Putin response to this incursion into Russia is to respond with tactical nuclear weapons? Now you have a huge mess for Europe & the US.

 

Biden is playing a very dangerous game here.

 

So the idea is that any nuclear weapon nation can invade and take over any other nation just because they can 'fall back' on a nuclear strike? 

 

[John Hjorth]

36 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

So a Chinese vessel with a Russian captain destroyed the fiber optic link to Finnland. Deserves some response, imo.

 

 

All that sh*te going on by now, that ship located and situated about 80 km NNE from me by right now. I'm not amused by that fact. I simply do not sleep well any longer at night because of it - worried. It has become a mental load.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

And then suddenly it also became totally clear and evident to me, why it last year was possible to pick up some cheap Swedish listed real estate : Sweden consists of, or is stuffed up with a lot of holes!, and some land. Caution needed not to fall in one those holes!

[Spekulatius]

6 hours ago, scorpioncapital said:

 

So the idea is that any nuclear weapon nation can invade and take over any other nation just because they can 'fall back' on a nuclear strike? 

 

Pretty much. If nuclear black mail works, it will work too on the US as well and North Korea and Iran are surely are watching.

 

Putin changing its nuclear doctrine for example is laughable. Putin could have triggered a nuclear strike at any time already. He pretty much has absolute power. The only doctrine there is that Putin does whatever he wants in Russia.

Its the west job to prevent him from doing whatever he wants elsewhere.

[formthirteen]

4 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Putin changing its nuclear doctrine for example is laughable. Putin could have triggered a nuclear strike at any time already. He pretty much has absolute power. The only doctrine there is that Putin does whatever he wants in Russia.

 

My thoughts exactly. Russia and China are simply testing the waters to see how weak the Western and Asian pipelines, cables, leadership, etc are. A simple strategy that has historically worked well in Europe and Asia. The weaker the leadership, the more pain they can inflict. History repeats.

[cubsfan]

8 hours ago, scorpioncapital said:

 

So the idea is that any nuclear weapon nation can invade and take over any other nation just because they can 'fall back' on a nuclear strike? 

 

 

No - the idea here is this:  The missiles being fired into Russia are a very sophisticated American missile system. Therefore, it's likely manned by Americans or European NATO members. That is a big step. You have no idea how Putin will respond, even though he said nuclear weapons are now on the table.

 

You're crossing the line where Europeans/American troops may have to get involved in the case of a strike.  If that is what you desire - go right ahead.

 

This war is being lost by Ukraine - and it's time to settle with Putin - unless you want hundreds of thousands more killed.  You have an American President who refuses to talk to Putin. That is a very bad sign and is not going to end well. This war should have been settled 2 years ago when Ukraine had the upper hand. Now you are just throwing lives away.

 

[cubsfan]

9 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

Mike, [ @cubsfan ],

 

If the above exchange between us is guiding for what's going to happen from here, as described by you above,  it's just totally devastating for us Europeans what's in the works, and about what's to happen, and we'll also - on top of that - loose a very important friend, for the future.

 

For your part, [likely - at least for you, I'm sure] the only really short term material effect is you are about to loose a lot of allies for the long term.

 

Then it's all about distinguishing the shades between friends and allies.

 

Friends back up friends,when needed, based on respect for already long term well working friendship, for friends' freedoms and rights to design and take responsibility for own lifes, to choose stance on whatever,

 

Allies concur on what they agree on, and choose to differ on anything else [most likely based on agreements written on paper].

 

John - circumstances change. This war is being lost. Now the tough decisions need to be made. When do you settle? How do you settle? Escalation makes settlement much messier.

 

By escalation, I mean, European & American involvement in terms of troops. Do you wish to commit Danish troops to this cause?  America is crossing the line from a proxy war to direct involvement with Russia here. That is a significant escalation. And it's being done by a President that has lost much of his cognitive abilities. So you have staff members like Jake Sullivan and Anthony Blinken calling the shots. On one hand, they demand that Israel ceasefire and stop the war. On the other hand, they escalate a losing war in Ukraine.

 

I see it as a very dangerous move.

[Xerxes]

3 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Pretty much. If nuclear black mail works, it will work too on the US as well and North Korea and Iran are surely are watching.

 

Putin changing its nuclear doctrine for example is laughable. Putin could have triggered a nuclear strike at any time already. He pretty much has absolute power. The only doctrine there is that Putin does whatever he wants in Russia.

Its the west job to prevent him from doing whatever he wants elsewhere.

you forgot Israeli nuclear blackmail in the early 1970 (Yom Kipper War) to fast track weapon shipment out of U.S.  

 

on Putin change of doctrine. Of course is laughable, as it is just paperwork, but it is what we call signalling. 
 

There are red lines for public consumption, and there are actual red lines, where the cost of doing nothing overweighs the PR cost of breaking the multi-decade long nuclear taboo. 
 

Zelensky lobbed all kind hardware to Russian the moment he got permission from Biden. As any rational person would do who is fighting a total war. Some of that hardware had Ukrainian missiles but they also used ATACM.
 

BUT Zelensky clearly chose to mention that they used ATACM and remove “tactical” ambiguity. 

Edited November 21 by Xerxes

[Xerxes]

I just heard that an ICBM was used. We call that signalling. 

 

And that the Kremlin press lady was told not to discuss it during the press conference. Odd

[John Hjorth]

38 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

I just heard that an ICBM was used. We call that signalling. 

 

And that the Kremlin press lady was told not to discuss it during the press conference. Odd

 

From Reuters, from the rolling news flow wall now, so screen shot here :

 

 

So, let's see.

[Pelagic]

2 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

No - the idea here is this:  The missiles being fired into Russia are a very sophisticated American missile system. Therefore, it's likely manned by Americans or European NATO members. That is a big step. You have no idea how Putin will respond, even though he said nuclear weapons are now on the table.

 

You're crossing the line where Europeans/American troops may have to get involved in the case of a strike.  If that is what you desire - go right ahead.

 

Ukraine has been operating HIMARs for two and a half years, I think they've figured out how to plug in the coordinates of static sites like ammunition dumps you can clearly see on Google or Yandex maps by now. The idea that western troops are there at every second holding their hand is laughable when you look at the volume of GMLRS strikes since they were provided in 2022. And if you think there's some massive capability barrier between using the same system for GMLRS and ATACMS, they've been operating ATACMs for over a year against sites in Russian occupied Ukraine. They're perfectly capable of using the system themselves.

 

 

 

 

[Xerxes]

This is what we call Kremlinologist given the vast array of books behind her 

 

[John Hjorth]

4 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

 

From Reuters, from the rolling news flow wall now, so screen shot here :

 

 

So, let's see.

 

Reuters [November 21^st 2024 November 21, 20248:20 PM GMT+1] : Russia fired experimental ballistic missile at Ukraine, Putin says.

 

So, now likely not an ICBM [, we well also likely, all, consider a better alternative in the situation than the start of use of ICBMs.]

[John Hjorth]

7 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

John - circumstances change. This war is being lost. Now the tough decisions need to be made. When do you settle? How do you settle? Escalation makes settlement much messier.

 

By escalation, I mean, European & American involvement in terms of troops. Do you wish to commit Danish troops to this cause?  America is crossing the line from a proxy war to direct involvement with Russia here. That is a significant escalation. And it's being done by a President that has lost much of his cognitive abilities. So you have staff members like Jake Sullivan and Anthony Blinken calling the shots. On one hand, they demand that Israel ceasefire and stop the war. On the other hand, they escalate a losing war in Ukraine.

 

I see it as a very dangerous move.

 

Mike [ @cubsfan ],

 

Rest assured, I hear [read] you!  - This is indeed a Catch-22, and a really nasty one! I may need some more time to think about  it and to elaborate.

[Spekulatius]

6 hours ago, Xerxes said:

This is what we call Kremlinologist given the vast array of books behind her 

 

That is Kreminal.

 

Maybe Putin lobs ballistic missiles because he runs of cruise missiles?

[John Hjorth]

7 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

That is Kreminal.

 

Maybe Putin lobs ballistic missiles because he runs of cruise missiles?

 

@Spekulatius,

 

Do you mean '... run out of cruise missiles?'?

 

- - - o 0 o - - - 

 

Google Translate translates the humor here from Danish to English [for free] as 'Gallow Humor'.

 

OT: I renewed my yearly Google One subscription today, by the way. [DKK 170.00 / year - Value for money - Absolutely awesome service and company.]

[Spekulatius]

Rubble exchange rate tells us that the Russian economy is a black hole:

 

This is despite the fact that the Russian central bank raises the interest rates and this is Tyvola of an economy that basically switched to a war economy where a large percentage of goods produced are going into the war effort rather than public consumption. Since Russia does not have that money , they print it with predicable results.

 

My guess is that the final toon stats from the Russian central bank are understated and they ought to be entering hyperinflation  by now. The biggest mistake the west could do is ease the sanctions. Even if there is a truce (there will never be peace with Putin) the sanctions should stay in place imo and everything that lowers crude prices helps too, as that’s about the only thing that Russia has to get hard currency.

Long terms, they just become North Korea. Still dangerous but hopelessly behind on technology behind with no chance of ever catching up.

 

[Haryana]

On 11/21/2024 at 12:56 PM, John Hjorth said:

 

Reuters [November 21^st 2024 November 21, 20248:20 PM GMT+1] : Russia fired experimental ballistic missile at Ukraine, Putin says.

 

So, now likely not an ICBM [, we well also likely, all, consider a better alternative in the situation than the start of use of ICBMs.]

Watch: Not ICBM, Russia fired missile that travels at '10 times the speed of sound'

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/europe/watch-not-icbm-russia-fired-missile-that-travels-at-10-times-the-speed-of-sound/articleshow/115547864.cms 

[Xerxes]

Most ballistic missiles are hypersonic during descent. The terminology is not new, but used often in marketing.  
 

It just question of how hyper-hypersonic it is. And if it glides before final descent, which most don’t. 
 

I think more reading is needed here. 

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, Xerxes said:

Most ballistic missiles are hypersonic during descent. The terminology is not new, but used often in marketing.  
 

It just question of how hyper-hypersonic it is. And if it glides before final descent, which most don’t. 
 

I think more reading is needed here. 

Yes,of course. Al, ballistic missiles are hypersonic, , but generally hypersonic missile are those that are either powered or glide and can control the direction upon descend so they are harder to intercept.

 

Patriots system have been quite capable of intercepting the powered hypersonic Khinzal missiles that Russia came up with earlier. You don’t hear much about those any more.

 

The bigger issues are the many glide bombs that Russia uses en Masse and that are cheap to retrofit on existing dumb bombs apparently.

Edited November 23 by Spekulatius

[Xerxes]

13 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Patriots system have been quite capable of intercepting the powered hypersonic Khinzal missiles that Russia came up with earlier. You don’t hear much about those any more.

 

Kinzhal are indeed air launched modified version of Iskanders, that were marketed as “hypersonic”. 
 

Zircon are a different matter. And not many of them have been used. 
 

Overall the Patriot defense system has been impressive. But the hit rate is contingent on full salvos. So high hit rate per battery but low hit rate per launcher. 

 

https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/kinzhal/

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-unstoppable-hypersonic-missiles-had-another-bad-night-ukraine-says-2024-11

 

 

Ukrainian Commander in Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi disclosed in August that Russia had launched 111 Kinzhal missiles since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022 and that Kyiv had managed to shoot down 28 of them — an interception rate of just 25%.

Syrskyi said Russia had used the Zircon missile only six times. Two of the munitions were shot down, while the other four struck civilian targets, Ukrainian media reported. The statistics on intercepts for these missiles appear higher now, but only slightly.

 

 

"Ukraine claims a 25% interception rate for hypersonic Kinzhal and Zircon missiles, but Ukrainian sources also indicate such interceptions require salvo firing all 32 launchers in a US-style Patriot battery to have any chance to shoot down a single hypersonic missile," the institute wrote in a September report.

[Haryana]

On 11/23/2024 at 7:27 AM, Xerxes said:

Most ballistic missiles are hypersonic during descent. The terminology is not new, but used often in marketing.  
 

It just question of how hyper-hypersonic it is. And if it glides before final descent, which most don’t. 
 

I think more reading is needed here. 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-studies-debris-new-russian-ballistic-missile-2024-11-24/ 

"Russia has dubbed the missile the Oreshnik (Hazel Tree) and said it is impossible to intercept it with air defences."