Russia-Ukrainian War

[Sweet]

43 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

Reuters - Europe - Ukraine and Russia at War [November 8^th 2024] : Putin is ready to talk to Trump but his Ukraine demands are unchanged, Kremlin says.

 

I wonder what will happen when these two goats [, not to be confused with GOATs, here rams] butt heads in the near future.

 

Will Trumps approach for 'big rocket man' be similar to that applied against 'little rocket man'? [<- Now perhaps that turned out reading at least bit funny, if one has hit Friday mood and sentiment, but that was unintentional here.]

 

There was an article several months ago, I think in reuters as well, that advisers to Trump would present to Putin a plan, and if Putin did not agree to it, the Trump admin would provide Ukraine with anything and everything it wants militarily. 

[John Hjorth]

12 minutes ago, Sweet said:

There was an article several months ago, I think in reuters as well, that advisers to Trump would present to Putin a plan, and if Putin did not agree to it, the Trump admin would provide Ukraine with anything and everything it wants militarily. 

 

Thank you, @Sweet ,

 

I'll try to dig it up and post a link to it here as well, if I find it.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Edit :

 

Here we go : 

 

Reuters - United States US Elections Donald Trump [June 25^th 2024] : Exclusive: Trump handed plan to halt US military aid to Kyiv unless it talks peace with Moscow

Edited November 8 by John Hjorth

[Sweet]

9 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Thank you, @Sweet ,

 

I'll try to dig it up and post a link to it here as well, if I find it. 

 

Think this is it John, the details are slightly different from what I remembered though:

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-reviews-plan-halt-us-military-aid-ukraine-unless-it-negotiates-peace-with-2024-06-25/

 

Edited November 8 by Sweet

[John Hjorth]

You beat me to it,  @Sweet!, ,

 

It's actually interesting stuff, I would say, at interim.

 

Its proposal does not exclude Ukraine from joining NATO in all eternity, but for an extended period.

 

That would make sense, at least to me personally, the same way that there will be no short-cuts available for Ukraine to join EU because of existing governmental issues in the incumbent administration [corruption etc.]

 

The paper referred to in the article also attached here.

America_First,_Russia,___Ukraine_ - 20241108.pdf

Edited November 8 by John Hjorth

[Sweet]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

You beat me to it,  @Sweet!, ,

 

It's actually interesting stuff, I would say, at interim.

 

Its proposal does not exclude Ukraine from joining NATO in all eternity, but for an extended period.

 

That would make sense, at least to me personally, the same way that there will be no short-cuts available for Ukraine to join EU because of existing governmental issues in the incumbent administration [corruption etc.]

 

The paper referred to in the article also attached here.

America_First,_Russia,___Ukraine_ - 20241108.pdf 403.88 kB · 0 downloads

It wasn’t as bad as I thought it might be, I hope it is toughened further and I hope trump will back his threat up if negotiations fail.  Fundamentally though, still think we Europeans need to do more.

[John Hjorth]

46 minutes ago, Sweet said:

It wasn’t as bad as I thought it might be, I hope it is toughened further and I hope trump will back his threat up if negotiations fail. ...

 

The way things formally are structured about transfer of presidential power in USA, Trump is actually cut-off from doing anything till after his second Inauguration Day on 20^th January 2025. In this actual context, when talk is about losses of lives [on both sides], there is unfortunately a long time to that date.

 

46 minutes ago, Sweet said:

... Fundamentally though, still think we Europeans need to do more.

 

It is already happening as we post. And it's not going to be 2 per cent defence spending budgets going forward to keep up with and to reality, it's going to get to more - much more, and stay to at that higher level! [3 - 4 per cent, perhaps certain places even higher.]

 

Soon this discussion about European NATO contributions will be muted by NATO stats.

 

- At least It's now locally here clear to the Danes it's absolutely needed to be so. And a lot of stuff on that front is actually in the works here by now. I.e. about naval shipbuilding in the mold.

Edited November 8 by John Hjorth

[Sweet]

4 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

It is already happening as we post. And it's not going to be 2 per cent defence spending budgets going forward to keep up with and to reality, it's going to get to more - much more, and stay to at that higher level! [3 - 4 per cent, perhaps certain places even higher.]

 

Soon this discussion about European NATO contributions will be muted by NATO stats.

 

- At least It's now locally here clear to the Danes it's absolutely needed to be so. And a lot of stuff on that front is actually in the works here by now. I.e. about naval shipbuilding in the mold.

 

I hope you are right John.  Europe has the ability to be a major player in defence.  We let the Americans do too much for us and it has made us soft.  Hope that is changing.

[John Hjorth]

A new YouTube video by Anders Puck Nielsen :

 

YouTube - Anders Puck Nielsen [November 7^th 2024] : What will Trump's victory mean for Ukraine?

 

 

 

I think this analysis is fairly good, without being too speculative, because of our general lack of tangible information about it, and the same time I hear some considerations not contained in what I have read on and in Mainstream Media about it.

 

Personally, I think Mr. Nielsen is missing one important and material point here though. The assymmetry in an evetual negotiation situation : Both The mediator [Donald Trump] and one of the warring parties [Volodymyr Zelenskyj] care and worry about collateral damages, while the latter combattant [Vladimir Putin] does not [give a damn about such].

Edited November 10 by John Hjorth

[Xerxes]

If U.S. actually withdraws from NATO (as far fetched as it sounds now), can that be catalyst which makes it “ok” for Ukraine to join NATO from Kremlin point of view, and stop this nonsense. 

[UK]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/11/10/trump-putin-phone-call-ukraine/

 

 

[UK]

8 hours ago, Xerxes said:

If U.S. actually withdraws from NATO (as far fetched as it sounds now), can that be catalyst which makes it “ok” for Ukraine to join NATO from Kremlin point of view, and stop this nonsense. 

 

And then maybe even Russia itself joins the alliance:). Sorry for the sarcasm, I am afraid that in this case or whatever the actual deal means, chances are going up as we speak I will have to start reading this 'living abroad' thread all over:)

 

Edited November 11 by UK

[John Hjorth]

On 11/11/2024 at 6:18 AM, UK said:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/11/10/trump-putin-phone-call-ukraine/

 

It quickly spread like some bush fire to all other news media, citing Washington Post [, not normal procedure for Reuters and AP, I would say].

 

I already before I went to bed late last night thought this could be false information, because it does not comply with Putins personality as I percieve it. If Trump said so, it would contain a hardly hidden threat against Putin '... already material US military presence in Europe ...'

 

- Nobody threats Putin, only Putin has the privilege of threating others, according to Putin's World View, and his view of Great Mother Russia!

 

Or he [Putin] was actually told so by Trump, and is now in denial, because he is furious about he was threatened, and thereby loosing face to realities.

 

Add to that material personal sactions and an international arrest order. Putin is insulted and offended like some sentitive bitch over that.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Here, such a thing is called a 'New Paper Duck'! [, meaning when one 'duck' says 'quack', we better say 'quack' too, to not fall behind in the news stream, in stead of doing independently verification].

Edited 18 hours ago by John Hjorth

[Xerxes]

4 hours ago, UK said:

 

And then maybe even Russia itself joins the alliance:). Sorry for the sarcasm, I am afraid that in this case or whatever the actual deal means, chances are going up as we speak I will have to start reading this 'living abroad' thread all over:)

 

steps were taken in the past few years to ensure that a president on its own cannot withdraw from NATO. It needs congress if I remember correctly. 
 

these steps would not have been put in place if the threat was not real. 
 

John Bolton says that Trump sees the war as “Biden’s war” and wants to start his first day with a clean slate. 

[Xerxes]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

 

It quickly spread like some bush fire to all other news media, citing Washington Post [, not normal procedure for Reuters and AP, I would say].

 

I already before I went to bed late last night thought this could be false information, because it does not comply with Putins personality as I percieve it. If Trump said so, it would contain a hardly hidden threat against Putin '... already material US military presence in Europe ...'

 

- Nobody threats Putin, only Putin has the privilege of threating others, according to Putin's World View, and of of Great Mother Russia!

 

Or he [Putin] was actually told so by Trump, and is now in denial, because he is furious about he was threatened, and thereby loosing face to realities.

 

Add to that material personal sactions and an international arrest order. Putin is insulted and offended like some sentitive bitch over that.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Here, such a thing is called a 'New Paper Duck'! [, meaning when one 'duck' says 'quack', we better say 'quack' too, to not fall behind in the news stream, in stead of doing independently verification].

 

 

I read Elon Musk was also on that call. Allegedly. 

[UK]

30 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

steps were taken in the past few years to ensure that a president on its own cannot withdraw from NATO. It needs congress if I remember correctly. 
 

these steps would not have been put in place if the threat was not real. 
 

John Bolton says that Trump sees the war as “Biden’s war” and wants to start his first day with a clean slate. 

Yes I do not disagree with you on this at all, IIRC correctly, these measures are more simbolic. The thing I am sceptical though this would change Kremlins view on NATO for the better. I think more likely they would see this as opportunity to be even more agressive.

[John Hjorth]

1 hour ago, Xerxes said:

I read Elon Musk was also on that call. Allegedly. 

 

No, @Xerxes,

 

Those headlines were misleading.

 

That call was from Zelenskyj, and the phone was handed over to Musk, so Zelenskyj could thank Musk for making Starlink available to Ukraine for warfare purposes.

[Spekulatius]

One thing that is clear is that Europe needs its own nukes long term and I don’t mean nuclear power plants. It’s one lesson Putin will draw is that nuclear black mail works and if Trump pulls back support from NATO, Europe needs its own nuclear cover.

 

The countries that need it most though are South Korea  (they will be blackmailed by Kim soon enough) and Taiwan, followed by Japan.

This is true even more so with people like Elon Musk with their “longtermism “ having access to US government. I’d recommend reading up on long termism.

[cubsfan]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

One thing that is clear is that Europe needs its own nukes long term and I don’t mean nuclear power plants. It’s one lesson Putin will draw is that nuclear black mail works and if Trump pulls back support from NATO, Europe needs its own nuclear cover.

 

The countries that need it most though are South Korea  (they will be blackmailed by Kim soon enough) and Taiwan, followed by Japan.

This is true even more so with people like Elon Musk with their “longtermism “ having access to US government. I’d recommend reading up on long termism.

 

That's what it will come to - if you don't think the USA has your back - you're wise to nuke up.

I doubt Trump will pull back from NATO if Europe keeps it's commitments up - and that's the way it should be. Germany ought to be leading the charge. Do you think Germany is prepared militarily?

 

Will be interesting to see how Trump handles China. He's had successful dialogues with Xi before.

[John Hjorth]

16 hours ago, Xerxes said:

... steps were taken in the past few years to ensure that a president on its own cannot withdraw from NATO. It needs congress if I remember correctly. 
 

these steps would not have been put in place if the threat was not real.  ...

 

Thank you, @Xerxes ,

 

Important, to remember, so one's mind doesen't stray too much away from reality.

[John Hjorth]

7 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

One thing that is clear is that Europe needs its own nukes long term and I don’t mean nuclear power plants. It’s one lesson Putin will draw is that nuclear black mail works and if Trump pulls back support from NATO, Europe needs its own nuclear cover.

 

I've never thought of things that way, but to me, it's true.

[John Hjorth]

This is 'great' :

 

Reuters [ November 15^th 2024] : Putin tells Scholz that Russia is willing to look at energy cooperation, Kremlin says.

 

Agreement among [just] 'businessmen', to obtain 'sustainability' among trading partners? German T2 tanks [very successful] at work in Ukraine to destroy Russian forces and gear by now? - Please give me a break! - Those who are in need of energy to survive and to get on the other side of the coming winther is Ukraine, - not Germany!

Edited 18 hours ago by John Hjorth

[John Hjorth]

New YouTube video by Anders Puck Nielsen about 'the digital war' [I'm not sure I understand any of its basics, nor its contents,-so, let it hereby be up to you, to judge and decide]

 

- Please be aware: This is [to me] personally severely biased towards / against X - please make up your own personal  mind about it, and take care!:

 

Anders Puck Nielsen [November 17^th 2024] : Twitter and responsible social media.

[formthirteen]

On 11/12/2024 at 12:38 AM, Spekulatius said:

One thing that is clear is that Europe needs its own nukes long term and I don’t mean nuclear power plants. It’s one lesson Putin will draw is that nuclear black mail works and if Trump pulls back support from NATO, Europe needs its own nuclear cover.

 

Europe has nukes and weak leadership. I don't think nukes would help Europe in deterring an autocrat such as Xi or Putin from attacking or collaborating.

 

Examples of weak leadership and the result:

 

Quote

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz told Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday that Russia’s deployment of North Korean troops against Ukraine was a “grave escalation” of the conflict, according to government sources.

 

Quote

The last time Scholz talked to Putin on the phone was on 2 December 2022. They last met in person a week before the full invasion of Ukraine.

Putin and Scholz sat opposite each other at a very long table Kremlin Press Office/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
They last met in Moscow a week before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022

At the time, Scholz returned to Berlin with promises from Putin that Russia did not intend to invade Ukraine. The attack a week later was the final break in trust between Germany and Russia.

For decades, Berlin had tried to ensure peace with Moscow by binding the two countries together with trade and energy links. That aspiration shattered overnight when Russia launched its full invasion of Ukraine.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c75lxypz7wqo

 

Another example of a ”grave escalation” from 2016:

 

 

Edited 8 hours ago by formthirteen

[Spekulatius]

Nukes are the only way to deter a threat from other (Putin’s) nukes. I do agree leadership is a huge problem. Germany is going to have snap elections in February 23 and who knows what his brings. Best outcome is that the CDU gains ground and get as mandate to do things differently. I am not terribly optimistic about this outcome.

 

These multiple party coalitions can’t get anything done, that’s for sure.

[John Hjorth]

New post on X about Russian gas supply to Austria by Anton Gerashchenko - I really can't help it here - it actually reads to me as an awesome user manual!  : 

 

 

 

Edited 3 hours ago by John Hjorth