Russia-Ukrainian War

[cubsfan]

3 hours ago, Luke said:

Nothing personal, just found it interesting. Found it on his twitter.

 

Likely some truth to the Mearshiemer post. We will never know the truth really. 

 

NATO membership or not - Russia has assured from now on - Ukraine will be armed to the teeth for years. Europe has awakened.

[UK]

4 hours ago, Luke said:

https://mearsheimer.substack.com/p/who-caused-the-ukraine-war

 

The alternative argument, which I identify with, and which is clearly the minority view in the West, is that the United States and its allies provoked the war. This is not to deny, of course, that Russia invaded Ukraine and started the war. But the principal cause of the conflict is the NATO decision to bring Ukraine into the alliance, which virtually all Russian leaders see as an existential threat that must be eliminated. NATO expansion, however, is part of a broader strategy that is designed to make Ukraine a Western bulwark on Russia’s border. Bringing Kyiv into the European Union (EU) and promoting a color revolution in Ukraine – turning it into pro-Western liberal democracy – are the other two prongs of the policy. Russia leaders fear all three prongs, but they fear NATO expansion the most. To deal with this threat, Russia launched a preventive war on 24 February 2022.

 

 

The debate about who caused the Ukraine war recently heated up when two prominent Western leaders – former President Donald Trump and prominent British MP Nigel Farage – made the argument that NATO expansion was the driving force behind the conflict. Unsurprisingly, their comments were met with a ferocious counterattack from defenders of the conventional wisdom. It is also worth noting that the outgoing Secretary General of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, said twice over the past year that “President Putin started this war because he wanted to close NATO’s door and deny Ukraine the right to choose its own path.” Hardly anyone in the West challenged this remarkable admission by NATO’s head and he did not retract it.

My aim here is to provide a primer, which lays out the key points that support the view that Putin invaded Ukraine not because he was an imperialist bent on making Ukraine part of a greater Russia, but mainly because of NATO expansion and the West’s efforts to make Ukraine a Western stronghold on Russia’s border.

 

FIRST, there is simply no evidence from before 24 February 2022 that Putin wanted to conquer Ukraine and incorporate it into Russia. Proponents of the conventional wisdom cannot point to anything Putin wrote or said that indicates he was bent on conquering Ukraine.

 

SECOND, there is no evidence that Putin was preparing a puppet government for Ukraine, cultivating pro-Russian leaders in Kyiv, or pursuing any political measures that would make it possible to occupy the entire country and eventually integrate it into Russia.

 

THIRD, Putin did not have anywhere near enough troops to conquer Ukraine.

 

FOURTH, in the months before the war started, Putin tried to find a diplomatic solution to the brewing crisis.

 

FIFTH, immediately after the war began, Russia reached out to Ukraine to start negotiations to end the war and work out a modus vivendi between the two countries.

 

SIXTH, putting Ukraine aside, there is not a scintilla of evidence that Putin was contemplating conquering any other countries in eastern Europe.

 

SEVENTH, hardly anyone in the West argued that Putin had imperial ambitions from the time he took the reins of power in 2000 until the Ukraine crisis started on 22 February 2014. At that point, he suddenly became an imperial aggressor. Why? Because Western leaders needed a reason to blame him for causing the crisis.  

 

 

 

Let me shift gears and lay out the THREE MAIN REASONS to think that NATO expansion was the principal cause of the Ukraine war.

 

FIRST, Russian leaders across the board said repeatedly before the war started that they considered NATO expansion into Ukraine to be an existential threat that had to be eliminated.

 

SECOND, a substantial number of influential and highly regarded individuals in the West recognized before the war that NATO expansion – especially into Ukraine – would be seen by Russian leaders as a mortal threat and eventually lead to disaster.

 

THIRD, the centrality of Russia’s profound fear of Ukraine joining NATO is illustrated by two developments that have occurred since the war began.

 

 

 

 

 

John Joseph Mearsheimer is an American political scientist and international relations scholar. He is the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor at the University of Chicago. Mearsheimer is best known for developing the theory of offensive realism, which describes the interaction between great powers as being primarily driven by the rational desire to achieve regional hegemony in an anarchic international system. In accordance with his theory, Mearsheimer believes that China's growing power will likely bring it into conflict with the United States.

 

I have listened to a few of a very long interviews of his and I liked them very much and I agree with a many things he is saying. Also the whole thing is way above my paygrade, very difficult and complicated, to have any clear conclusions on some things or on their long term consequencies, and there are many biases etc involved. On a few things my mind (perhaps because of fear) is on the oposite position where the heart (or gut) is. Or just to point out some incredible contradictions of this situation, and I am not even sure if it is 100 percent true, but it seems that the current commander-in-chief of Ukraine armed forces was born in Russia while his parents and brother still live in Russia...one of a many things quite not so easy to understand. Long story short of how I see it, I have no idea how to solve this lets call it a 'Putin problem', but I am very sure I know how I feel about it/him and this is not uncommon of how majority of people around me are feeling, see the picture:).

 

But also notice the red logo on the next building further. It it is the logo of Huawei:). Can not remember / not sure if it is still out there though:)

 

Edited September 1 by UK

[John Hjorth]

Damn! [in a positive way, -not kidding!],

 

I personally appreciate very much all the input I get almost every day in this topic about this calamity, and how to at least try to think about it, and about how to bring the warfare activities to an end. For my personal part, it actually occupies quite a bit of my mind on a daily basis these days, likely because I live relatively close by.

 

This also includes keeping the ongoing dialogue and discussion civil on an ongoing basis. [I'm by the way pretty sure this topic would suffer the death with a sudden [and silent] *poof* if it was not so - it is like the topic is and exist here on 'tolerated stay', like some most wanted terrorist on a real vacation somewhere, without getting recognized.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Thank you.

[cubsfan]

1 hour ago, UK said:

 

I have listened to a few of a very long interviews of his and I liked them very much and I agree with a many things he is saying. Also the whole thing is way above my paygrade, very difficult and complicated, to have any clear conclusions on some things or on their long term consequencies, and there are many biases etc involved. On a few things my mind (perhaps because of fear) is on the oposite position where the heart (or gut) is. Or just to point out some incredible contradictions of this situation, and I am not even sure if it is 100 percent true, but it seems that the current commander-in-chief of Ukraine armed forces was born in Russia while his parents and brother still live in Russia...one of a many things quite not so easy to understand. Long story short of how I see it, I have no idea how to solve this lets call it a 'Putin problem', but I am very sure I know how I feel about it/him and this is not uncommon of how majority of people around me are feeling, see the picture:).

 

But also notice the red logo on the next building further. It it is the logo of Huawei:). Can not remember / not sure if it is still out there though:)

 

 

This picture,,,,  likely not the best way to enter into a ceasefire or settlement talk.

[UK]

2 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

Damn! [in a positive way, -not kidding!],

 

I personally appreciate very much all the input I get almost every day in this topic about this calamity, and how to at least try to think about it, and about how to bring the warfare activities to an end. For my personal part, it actually occupies quite a bit of my mind on a daily basis these days, likely because I live relatively close by.

 

This also includes keeping the ongoing dialogue and discussion civil on an ongoing basis. [I'm by the way pretty sure this topic would suffer the death with a sudden [and silent] *poof* if it was not so - it is like the topic is and exist here on 'tolerated stay', like some most wanted terrorist on a real vacation somewhere, without getting recognized.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Thank you.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-31/ukraine-must-be-allowed-to-use-f-16s-inside-russia-denmark-says

 

[UK]

2 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

This picture,,,,  likely not the best way to enter into a ceasefire or settlement talk.

 

 No doubt. And no one from the plenty hawks has yet articulated what winning even means in this case.

[cubsfan]

11 minutes ago, UK said:

 

 No doubt. And no one from the plenty hawks has yet articulated what winning even means in this case.

 

That is exactly right. I can't speak to Europe, but the Biden administration can not define the end game.

[Xerxes]

I saw some reports that the Russian are building trench around the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk.  
 

So if Kursk is a huge tactical victory, it may end up being a strategic mistake, if Moscow doesn’t take the bait. And pushes on. 
 

The good professor on SkyNews said the same thing on his channel. 

[John Hjorth]

21 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

I saw some reports that the Russian are building trench around the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk.  
 

So if Kursk is a huge tactical victory, it may end up being a strategic mistake, if Moscow doesn’t take the bait. And pushes on. 
 

The good professor on SkyNews said the same thing on his channel. 

 

Both Putin and the good professor on SkyNews have misunderstood - What is going on in Kursk is 'just' an Ukrainian Special Military Operation.  <Sorry, I coulden't help it>

[Xerxes]

3 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Both Putin and the good professor on SkyNews have misunderstood - What is going on in Kursk is 'just' an Ukrainian Special Military Operation.  <Sorry, I coulden't help it>

 

 

For clarity, by the professor I meant, Professor Clark from SkyNews and not Mearshiemer.

 

The former is a military analyst, while the latter is a Realpolitikist who does not have a problem to call a spade a spade.

While Mearshiemer speaks his mind, on military matters, I will go with professor Clark.  

 

On Special Operations, well let us not forget that the last time U.S. Congress declared war on any nation was in Dec 1941, and it has been a roller coaster of "special operations" since then till today. With a couple of U.N. mandate special operations thrown in between (thinking Korea and Kuwait).

 

Though technically, it might have been actually 1942, as per Wiki, U.S. went to war against other Axis powers in 1942.

 

Declaration of war by the United States - Wikipedia

 

[Xerxes]

On 8/16/2024 at 8:51 AM, Xerxes said:

Looks like I was wrong and way off, the culprit was not Poland. 
 

According to WSJ, it was the ex-Ukrainian general, and few drunken men that decided to blow up Nord Stream. 
 

Read “ex-Ukrainian general, and few drunken men” ==> unsanctioned lose canons and mavericks

plot thickens. 

a new suspect in the Nord Stream case ? 
 

[UK]

9 hours ago, UK said:

For my personal part, it actually occupies quite a bit of my mind on a daily basis these days, likely because I live relatively close by.

 

I would consider your are far enough, at least for a 'boots on the ground' type risk, but of course, the closer you are, the sronger this mind occupation...and empathy perhaps. Oh and btw, few days ago it was 31 year anniversary of a situation I hope (but not sure) will continue for at least anoter 30 years.

 

Article from a year ago: https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/2066608/red-army-go-home-how-lithuania-expelled-russian-troops-30-years-ago

[Xerxes]

8 hours ago, UK said:

 

I would consider your are far enough, at least for a 'boots on the ground' type risk, but of course, the closer you are, the sronger this mind occupation...and empathy perhaps. Oh and btw, few days ago it was 31 year anniversary of a situation I hope (but not sure) will continue for at least anoter 30 years.

 

Article from a year ago: https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/2066608/red-army-go-home-how-lithuania-expelled-russian-troops-30-years-ago

i was in Iran in the 80s, the Soviets being there for ten years and the finally withdrawing barely registered on the VIX. 
 

granted I was just a kid. But I was watching news all the time. 

 

[John Hjorth]

 

Well, wasen't that my line, - not yours, @UK? 

[UK]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keep_Calm_and_Carry_On

[Dinar]

9 hours ago, UK said:

 

I would consider your are far enough, at least for a 'boots on the ground' type risk, but of course, the closer you are, the sronger this mind occupation...and empathy perhaps. Oh and btw, few days ago it was 31 year anniversary of a situation I hope (but not sure) will continue for at least anoter 30 years.

 

Article from a year ago: https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/2066608/red-army-go-home-how-lithuania-expelled-russian-troops-30-years-ago

Dude, the Baltics were part of the Russian empire from 1740s (called Kurland) until 1917.  Then USSR 1939-1941, Germany (1941-1944), and then USSR again 1944-1990.  Lithuania did NOT expel Russian troops, there was the Soviet Army, and Lithuania did not have the ability to do it.  After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia left voluntary.  Lithuania never had the means to expel anyone.  Might as well say that Austria expelled the Soviet troops in 1955....  

[UK]

19 minutes ago, Dinar said:

Dude, the Baltics were part of the Russian empire from 1740s (called Kurland) until 1917.  Then USSR 1939-1941, Germany (1941-1944), and then USSR again 1944-1990.  Lithuania did NOT expel Russian troops, there was the Soviet Army, and Lithuania did not have the ability to do it.  After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia left voluntary.  Lithuania never had the means to expel anyone.  Might as well say that Austria expelled the Soviet troops in 1955....  

 

True, but I did not said that, only that we got lucky big time (some more post ago) and I would be happy to see this situation to continue.

 

Btw we got lucky big time not once, e.g.: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Soviet_coup_attempt

 

I am rooting for this stroke of luck not to end.

 

Edited September 2 by UK

[John Hjorth]

2 hours ago, UK said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keep_Calm_and_Carry_On

 

To understand your line of posting in this topic, I hope you woulden't mind to share a little about what's in your backpack by your history and where you live today. It's pretty darn impossible to relate to your postings in this topic without this information.

 

The above hereby posted based on that I've personally never felt that I've lost any part of my privacy by posting here on CoBF, that I'm a Dane, living in Denmark.

 

Thank you, no  matter how you may prefer to reply. It is - after all - just about clarity.

[UK]

31 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

To understand your line of posting in this topic, I hope you woulden't mind to share a little about what's in your backpack by your history and where you live today. It's pretty darn impossible to relate to your postings in this topic without this information.

 

The above hereby posted based on that I've personally never felt that I've lost any part of my privacy by posting here on CoBF, that I'm a Dane, living in Denmark.

 

Thank you, no  matter how you may prefer to reply. It is - after all - just about clarity.

 

No problem John:). IIRC, you already had asked once and I answered, but still the same today, I live in Vilnius, Lithuania. So EU and NATO, but at the same time it is like only 36 km to our border with Belarus or only some 40 km from the new Astravets Nuclear Power Plant, which Belarusians have built here for not totally clear reasons:)

 

Edited September 2 by UK

[Dinar]

49 minutes ago, UK said:

 

No problem John:). IIRC, you already had asked once and I answered, but still the same today, I live in Vilnius, Lithuania. So EU and NATO, but at the same time it is like only 36 km to our border with Belarus or only some 40 km from the new Astravets Nuclear Power Plant, which Belarusians have built here for not totally clear reasons:)

 

If you had a choice between spending the summer in Yurmala, German Baltic coast or Italy/Spain/Greece, which would you choose?  If you would not choose Yurmala, why not?  Thank you.

[UK]

58 minutes ago, Dinar said:

If you had a choice between spending the summer in Yurmala, German Baltic coast or Italy/Spain/Greece, which would you choose?  If you would not choose Yurmala, why not?  Thank you.

 

If strictly in summer, for me it would be easy to answer: I avoid Baltic coast in our country in peak months (June-August), because it is very crowdy and expensive at this time, and I am afraid same would be true for Jurmala. The other part of Latvian Baltic coast is way less crowdy, even in summer, but also with way less infrastructure, perhaps good only if you are ok with enjoying the nature with less people and much else to do (still the better option for me personally). The best time to visit Jurmala (as our Palanga) I think is early September, because the weather is still nice (or even like in the summer as currently is), but all bad things disappear right with the back to school season, not an option if you travel with kids though. Italy/Spain/Greece of course would be my choice, but the problem with recent summers, it could be really too hot, there is even a new word/trend, 'coolcation' I think, to describe this phenomena. Again late spring or early autumn perhaps would be a safer bet. So I have never been in German Baltic coast (or only from the side of Denmark:)), but I would chose this over other options (perhaps even adding some places in Poland, especially if you will use car), or even Scandinavia, depending on the circumstances, for the summer. E.g. Stockholm is very nice in the summer, you can be in the city, many things to do, and go to swim in the sea basically using public transport and for me it is same price/as easy to reach (thank you Ryanair) as Jurmala, so really no brainer vs our/Latvian Baltic Coast. But if you really want to visit Yurmala, maybe you can add Riga as well. I think it is also easy to reach from Yurmala by train or vice versa. 

 

Edited September 2 by UK

[Dinar]

@UK, thank you very much.  Yes, coming with three kids, tied to the school schedule, oldest will be 9 and youngest almost 4.   I would like to show my wife (born in Kiev) and my three kids (born in the US), the Baltics, so I would definitely go to Tartu, Talinn, Riga, Kaunas, Vilnius.  None of us have been to Krakow, and I have never been to Scandinavia.  For the kids' first European trip, I was debating between beach and culture (Prague, Paris.)  I was thinking of Spain (Barcelona, Valencia) since it is easy to combine beach and culture, but yes, I have heard of the recent heat waves over the last couple of years.  

[UK]

6 hours ago, Dinar said:

@UK, thank you very much.  Yes, coming with three kids, tied to the school schedule, oldest will be 9 and youngest almost 4.   I would like to show my wife (born in Kiev) and my three kids (born in the US), the Baltics, so I would definitely go to Tartu, Talinn, Riga, Kaunas, Vilnius.  None of us have been to Krakow, and I have never been to Scandinavia.  For the kids' first European trip, I was debating between beach and culture (Prague, Paris.)  I was thinking of Spain (Barcelona, Valencia) since it is easy to combine beach and culture, but yes, I have heard of the recent heat waves over the last couple of years.  

 

This sounds like a serious and nice plan! In such case, adding a few days for Jurmala or Nida (this is perhaps a nicest coast you can get in LT/LV) would not be bad, I was just sceptical of chosing them as the only place to visit/staying for long here:). Krakow is really nice, perhaps would be my top single city of Poland to visit, if I had to chose one (also Auschwitz is near, as is Energylandia). There are plenty of cheap flights or even overnight ferries from Stockholm to Riga (or perhaps also Tallin or Klaipeda), so personally I would include Stockholm or Copenhagen (or maybe even place such as Gotland), especially if in the middle of summer. Most of Scandinavia is very nice and summer, maybe +- one month, is really the only time to visit it, since it could be to cold in other time (same for Baltics:)).

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-07-03/norway-sweden-and-denmark-tourism-boosted-by-coolcation-trend

 

Edited September 3 by UK

[UK]

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-close-agreeing-long-range-missiles-ukraine-delivery-take-months-2024-09-03/

[Luke]

 

Posted today by the Vice-Chancellor of Germany and Minister of Economic Affairs. 

 

Shows very well where the west wants to go with Russia->Regime-Change->Putin into Prison->"democractic russia"->millions hoping to be safed from their government etc 

 

Now selensky said he doesn't plant to return the russian regions...imagine what would happen if the west would gain even more support for a direct war against Russia.