Russia-Ukrainian War

[spartansaver]

16 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Depends on the definition of western values. One of those values used to be independent thinking. Now? Not so sure anymore. 

I have a habit of checking the WSJ and Bloomberg. Perhaps I'm more aware or perhaps it's getting more trashy over time but it's just a dumb echo chamber. Constant articles disparaging everything Musk touches because he is media enemy number 1 owning X (he may have made himself easy to not like, but the guys done some awesome stuff for society). Barely any articles are worth opening and are just regurgitations of what someone else said. It's like sell side just chirping management expectations as analysis. Recession incoming! Let's take every company that has a layoff and make it front page and ignore all the hiring taking place at other companies. Inflation going wild! And then Bloomberg is the same articles with a different title. 

[John Hjorth]

Greg [ @Gregmal ],

 

The following Wikipedia articles hits, what I'm talking about above, fairly well :

 

Wkipedia : Western values, &

Wikipedia : European values.

[ValueArb]

3 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

Thanks, @UK & @Xerxes,

 

I'm  still shocked by reading this. 

 

Not shocked - at all - that Volodymyr Zelenskyy may have signed off on this action and may have supported it on a practical level. Extraordinary times and circumstances may from time to time to require extraordinary measures and may contain an element of Catch-22 and imply Collateral damage.

 

To me, if he has participated in this, he has just done what his people rightfully might have expected of him as their leader and as a patriot. I'm also fine with him not public taking responsibility, when the adversary behaves like in this overall sitiuation. Bullies mostly understand nothing but brute force.

 

I take issue with the Danish and Swedish governments handling of the case, who initiated investigations of what happened back then, only to 'burry' achieved findings and conclusions with a 'confidential' stamp, based on the matters were 'relevant for the safety of the state'.

 

Utter *BS* and hipocrisy in two open democracies.

 

More stinky than fishy - bad odeor all over it.

don’t get too excited, the next big nordstream story will have an entirely new narrative because all of these conspiracy theories have been sourced entirely from shadowy European sources desperate for attention.
 

This one doesn’t make sense on its face. The pipelines were already shut down, and European allies, especially Germany are critical to Ukrainian survival. Let alone the physical difficulties of doing a deep sea demolition from a tiny yacht.

 

As always, I’ll point out there is no compelling evidence that the Nordstream pipelines were blown up by an intentional act of sabotage. Unless you think Gasproms terrible maintenance practices were directed by Ukrainian secret service.

[cubsfan]

I love these posts!

 

Ukraine gets attacked and has a right to defend themselves, but Israel does not.

 

You guys kill me!

[cubsfan]

On a different note - Chicago getting ready for the DNC next week. Friends that are fireman,

ex-marines, etc, getting called up from non-active duty for street patrol and riot duty.

Putting people on rooftops, etc.

 

2 years ago Chicago screaming about defunding the police, today we look like Fallujah.

 

 

 

 

 

[Gregmal]

This must be where they protect democracy by nominating a candidate who never won a primary. Hoorah Democracy!

[Ulti]

2 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

This must be where they protect democracy by nominating a candidate who never won a primary. Hoorah Democracy!

Ha …  I’ve been saying this from day one…seems like both parties are 2 sides of the same coin…..both will lie cheat and sell their own mothers to win and accumulate power… Demorats just happen to be a little more subtle  on this issue than the Trumplican mafiosi 

[cubsfan]

It's really upsetting to see this in my hometown. 

 

But yeah, they insist on defunding and hamstringing the police, until it's their convention, then they call in reinforcements.

 

 

 

[Spekulatius]

Well the drunken folks decide to blow the Nordstream pipeline that was already makes sense. why would Zelensky sign off on this? What would this accomplish versus the risk that the truth comes out (which apparently is happening now).

 

There are also articles now about pot. Russian sabotage on German military bases. that makes not sense to me either although they are suspecting other extremism groups as well (free Palestine).

 

None of these things really make too much sense unless you a re deep into drugs but then again a lot of people are.

 

I do watch what happens with the Kursk incursion. Looks like huge victory by Ukraine in many dimensions. First, the Russians were caught napping and were run over and this is now the fist time enemy groups are in Russia since 1944. the economy in 3 large Oblasts is totally disrupted and there is chaos. Putin cannot let this stand and now he is moving his troops and best brigades from Donetz to this new focus point which due to poor Russian logistic takes forever.

 

Its really quite something to watch.

[UK]

5 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Its really quite something to watch.

 

This would be very interesting to watch, especially from the distance far enough:). Except for the fact, that since the start of invasion there is nothing else than a constant escallation, so many red lines are being crossed and still there is no much more clarity today on the final resolution possible, then it was two years ago. Most get used to all this, but seeing British tanks driving in Kursk:), I am not against this per se, but personally I am worried at such times a bit for some unforseen concequences / more escallation.

[changegonnacome]

11 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Looks like huge victory by Ukraine in many dimensions.

 

I applaud it - and it warms the blood to see Putin so embarrassed by it.....one can imagine him in a fit of rage in the Kremlin when he heard the news.....but taking a step back.......and thinking about it rationally..........invading completely undefended territory of your enemy hundreds of miles away from the actual battlefield in SE Ukraine............feels like a PR/moral boosting stunt you pull when the 'real' military objective of capturing your own territory back isn't going so well.

 

To do so IMO is an admission that, fundamentally, the reality is setting in that in a conventional war Ukraine hasn't the manpower left now to achieve any traditional military objectives against Russia....i.e. capture back Oblasts lost since 2022.

 

The Kursk invasion - on the surface appears like a military operation......but IMO its a very important pivot to a kind of scaled up version of gorilla warfare by Zelensky....which is an admission by Ukraine that even with all the military aid they've been provided they lack the human resources to make any progress on the actual battlefield in South Eastern Ukraine.

[UK]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/08/17/kursk-ukraine-russia-energy-ceasefire/

 

Ukraine’s offensive derails secret efforts for partial cease-fire with Russia, officials say

The warring countries were set to hold indirect talks in Qatar on an agreement to halt strikes on energy and power infrastructure, according to officials.

[Spekulatius]

7 hours ago, UK said:

 

This would be very interesting to watch, especially from the distance far enough:). Except for the fact, that since the start of invasion there is nothing else than a constant escallation, so many red lines are being crossed and still there is no much more clarity today on the final resolution possible, then it was two years ago. Most get used to all this, but seeing British tanks driving in Kursk:), I am not against this per se, but personally I am worried at such times a bit for some unforseen concequences / more escallation.

The red lines drawn by Putin are all BS. Putin has crossed more red lines than anyone. The UK has given Ukraine a total of 14 Challenger tanks, more symbolic than anything. It is clear that the west has given Ukraine just enough to survive but not enough to succeed.

 

The Kursk incursion is a tactical maneuver- instead of attacking against fortified lines like they tried last summer, they attacked the weak spot which is ironically the Russian homeland itself. Putin cannot led this stand, he has to fight back. So now Russia fights on Ukraines terms not their own.

 

1) Russia has to take the occupied land back. Losses won’t matter.

2) three oblasts of Russia have  become a war zone, with evacuation, fighting and destruction. The economy in these three oblasts is totally shattered. Putin is advertising in Moscow and all over Russia for civil engineers to create Fortifications all long the frontline deep into the Russian homeland.mits is going to be hugely expensive.

3) Russia has to move many of their best units from the donetz into this area which will take a long time, so hugely disruptive 

4) it’s a public humiliation for Putin.

 

Longer term, I think Russia has to switch their entire economy to a war economy. The GDP growth may not be too bad but what it means is that Russian as a whole will see a decline in goods and services in favor of feeding the military.

 

Edited August 17 by Spekulatius

[UK]

9 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

The red lines drawn by Putin are all BS. Putin has crossed more red lines than anyone. The UK has given Ukraine a total of 14 Challenger tanks, more symbolic than anything. It is clear that the west has given Ukraine just enough to survive but not enough to succeed.

 

The Kursk incursion is a tactical maneuver- instead of attacking against fortified lines like they tried last summer, they attacked the weak spot which is ironically the Russian homeland itself. Putin cannot led this stand, he has to fight back. So now Russia fights on Ukraines terms not their own.

 

1) Russia has to take the occupied land back. Losses won’t matter.

2) three oblasts of Russia have  become a war zone, with evacuation, fighting and destruction. The economy in these three oblasts is totally shattered. Putin is advertising in Moscow and all over Russia for civil engineers to create Fortifications all long the frontline deep into the Russian homeland.mits is going to be hugely expensive.

3) Russia has to move many of their best units from the donetz into this area which will take a long time, so hugely disruptive 

4) it’s a public humiliation for Putin.

 

Longer term, I think Russia has to switch their entire economy to a war economy. The GDP growth may not be too bad but what it means is that Russian as a whole will see a decline in goods and services in favor of feeding the military.

 

 

Perhaps...anyway, all this is well above my paygrade and, at least for now, it seems that because of Kursk, Russia is moving its troops from Kaliningrad and Saint Petersburg districts to Kursk, not the other way:)

[changegonnacome]

29 minutes ago, UK said:

Kaliningrad and Saint Petersburg districts to Kursk, not the other way:)

Yep Kursk is an embarrassing annoyance….soon to be reclaimed and where Ukraine will pay a high price in terms of equipment and maybe men.

 

I kind of get it - Zelensky comes from showbiz….and Kursk is showbiz writ large in the theatre of war…it broke through into Western news headlines….and that’s its value….all things equal it might allow Western politicians to send a few billion more of aid with Kursk hung out as a morsel of progress…when in reality no progress is being made at all (at great human and monetary capital) where it matters in South Eastern Ukraine.

[Xerxes]

1 hour ago, changegonnacome said:

Yep Kursk is an embarrassing annoyance….soon to be reclaimed and where Ukraine will pay a high price in terms of equipment and maybe men.

 

I kind of get it - Zelensky comes from showbiz….and Kursk is showbiz writ large in the theatre of war…it broke through into Western news headlines….and that’s its value….all things equal it might allow Western politicians to send a few billion more of aid with Kursk hung out as a morsel of progress…when in reality no progress is being made at all (at great human and monetary capital) where it matters in South Eastern Ukraine.

But this is not show business 

 

Both the recent incursion into the thinly protected open swaths of Russia with experienced Ukrainian troops … and its campaign in the Black Sea are means to wage asymmetrical war, because it cannot go head to head against the entrenched positions in the Donbas. 
 

 

[Xerxes]

What a champ !!

we need more of these guys and less of racists a-holes 

 

[John Hjorth]

A fairly good piece [in my personal opinion] by Reuters today :

 

Reuters [August 17^th 2024] : How Russia looked the wrong way as Ukraine invaded.

 

It's fairly long, written as detailed notes on timeline basis brought together, describing all chaotic elements and events. I like it so, instead of reading the reporters assessments and conclusions.

 

Total chaos in the communication among ranks in the line of command in the Russian military. I'm puzzled one can get away with lying about the actual situation to Putin without getting axed. It reads as total lack of any kind of structure, based on an agreed modus operandi / procedure and followed to the point, with precision. It has incompetence and dishonesty painted all over it.

 

A pitty of military performance, verging to being laughable, I would say. What a disaster.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Two bridges important for the Russian military supply chain taken out in the Kursk area.

 

 

 

[changegonnacome]

16 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

because it cannot go head to head against the entrenched positions in the Donbas. 

 

Agree - think I said somewhere above - that this is now more like Gorilla warfare.....or a counter-insurgency......but what it tells you....Kursk in particular.....is that Ukraine itself knows that it can not be militarily successful in the South East.....it is not winning back that territory..

 

The BIG problem of course......is that the story which precipitated the West's contribution of capital and equipment..........was that Zelensky sold us a story about a counter-offensive that could be mounted of such success that it would bring Russia to the negotiating table begging for an end.....scuttling a few hundred miles North of the battle field....and driving across empty fields into Russia and taking some undefended villages and towns is not the painful and costly to Russia counteroffensive that would bring Putin to the negotiating table that 'we' were hoping and paying for.

[cubsfan]

^^^ Right. It's easy to see this is a stalemate, war of attrition - which Ukraine can not win.

Ukraine needs to decide what lands to concede to Putin and sue for peace.

 

It simply can not afford to lose a whole generation of young men - and survive as a nation.

[UK]

55 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

A fairly good piece [in my personal opinion] by Reuters today :

 

Reuters [August 17^th 2024] : How Russia looked the wrong way as Ukraine invaded.

 

It's fairly long, written as detailed notes on timeline basis brought together, describing all chaotic elements and events. I like it so, instead of reading the reporters assessments and conclusions.

 

Total chaos in the communication among ranks in the line of command in the Russian military. I'm puzzled one can get away with lying about the actual situation to Putin without getting axed. It reads as total lack of any kind of structure, based on an agreed modus operandi / procedure and followed to the point, with precision. It has incompetence and dishonesty painted all over it.

 

A pitty of military performance, verging to being laughable, I would say. What a disaster.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Two bridges important for the Russian military supply chain taken out in the Kursk area.

 

 

 

 

All this really starting to look like the second Prigozhyn moment:). Maybe Kerch bridge will be next...

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/08/16/ukraine-russia-soldiers-conscripts-kursk/

 

Nikolai and fellow prisoner Sergey, 19, said Ukraine attacked their military headquarters on Aug. 6 and their commanders left without giving instructions on what to do next. Fearing they would be killed if they stayed, the young men walked for three days through forests and swamps and “slept on the cold ground,” Nikolai said. While searching for safety, they came across a group of vehicles decorated with triangles — a symbol Ukraine has painted or taped on all its vehicles crossing into Russia in recent days. “I was trying to remember whether the triangle was our identification sign or not,” Nikolai said. Soon they were surrounded. Ukrainian soldiers grabbed them by the scruff of the neck, he said, checked them for weapons and then gave them food, water and cigarettes. “They came, chatted, told their stories, listened to ours,” he said. Then they tied their hands and covered their eyes and sent them over the border into Ukraine.

 

[Spekulatius]

Whether Ukraine pains a huge price for the incursion remains to be seen The Russian soon have to decide if they sent their best units against entrenched positions that Ukraine should be able to build in hits land. It’s not a surprise and Ukraine knows exactly where they attack.

 

Right now Russia pays the piper into term of dislocating hundred of thousand of people, three entire oblasts becoming a war zone and move civilian resources to create new fortifications and they have to change all their war plans which isn’t exactly a strength of theirs.

 

The war is getting more and more costly for Russia and it’s not just human lives, it’s their economy that is getting flushed down the toilet for really not much to show for.

Edited August 17 by Spekulatius

[Xerxes]

2 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

Russia and taking some undefended villages and towns is not the painful and costly to Russia counteroffensive that would bring Putin to the negotiating table that 'we' were hoping and paying for.

it is an embarrassment, irritant, and perhaps even a reason for MoD to do unplanned “pull” of its veteran troops in the Donbas and weaken the main front … but nothing that “will bring the Kremlin to the negotiating table”

 

 

I was listening to my weekly pod, I think they said it well: this is one of those cases where the strategy of why Ukrainian did what they did is written after the outcome. 

[Spekulatius]

17 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

it is an embarrassment, irritant, and perhaps even a reason for MoD to do unplanned “pull” of its veteran troops in the Donbas and weaken the main front … but nothing that “will bring the Kremlin to the negotiating table”

 

 

I was listening to my weekly pod, I think they said it well: this is one of those cases where the strategy of why Ukrainian did what they did is written after the outcome. 

I doubt there will be any negotiations this year. It will certainly not before Putin has kicked out the Ukrainians out of Russian land or at least tried. But it will be costly for him no matter what and the cost will be permanent, because he cannot  defend his borders just with conscripts.

 

[John Hjorth]

28 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Whether Ukraine pains a huge price for the incursion remains to be seen The Russian soon have to decide if they sent their best units against entrenched positions that Ukraine should be able to build in hits land. It’s not a surprise and Ukraine knows exactly where they attack.

 

Right now Russia pays the piper into term of dislocating hundred of thousand of people, three entire oblasts becoming a war zone move civilian resources to create new fortifications and they have to change all their war plans which isn’t exactly a strength of theirs.

 

The war is getting more and more costly for Russia and it’s not just human lives, it’s their economy that is getting flushed down the toilet for really not much to show for.

 

Just for purpose of showing proportions interpartes, from trading economics [today, and all 2023 numbers] :

 

Russia GDP : USD 2,021 B,

 

USA GDP : USD 27,361 B

 

Euro area GDP : USD 15,545 B,

 

Germany GDP : USD 4,456 B

United Kingdom GDP : USD 3,340 B

France GDP : USD 3,031 B

Italy GDP : USD 2,255 B.

 

Please mind the individual proportions.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

I'm still a firm believer that the econoimic consequences of this war already have imposed irrevocable damage to the economy of Russia, and the consequences of that will be for many years to come, the geografic definition of Europe [see Wikipedia] is generally set to the east to be in Russia [at the Ural mountains], and it will change to something like exclusive Russia, like 'Between the Urals and Europe we have the hellhole called Russia [totally isolated from the West]'.