Russia-Ukrainian War

[UK]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-6

 

Key Kremlin officials began collectively deescalating their rhetoric regarding the use of nuclear weapons in early November. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) released a statement on “the prevention of nuclear war” on November 2, stating that Russia “is strictly and consistently guided by the postulate of the inadmissibility of a nuclear war in which there can be no winners, and which must never be unleashed.” The Russian MFA also stated that it is committed to the reduction and limitation of nuclear weapons.[1] Russian President Vladimir Putin stated on October 27 that Russia has no need to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine and claimed Russia has never discussed the possibility of using nuclear weapons, only “hinting at the statements made by leaders of Western countries.”[2] The deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, has similarly increasingly downplayed the fiery nuclear rhetoric he used throughout October and is now focusing on promoting Russian unity in the war in Ukraine.

 

Time for Leopards to show up?

 

Edited November 7, 2022 by UK

[UK]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-08/rise-of-russia-hardliner-yevgeny-prigozhin-fuels-fear-in-putin-s-elite

 

Now that would be quite a succesor...

[Pelagic]

Russia withdrawing from the Kherson region on the west side of the Dnipro river. Looks like taking out the Kerch bridge and months of HIMARS strikes made holding Kherson untenable. 

 

 

[Xerxes]

There is no relation between the explosion Kerch bridge and Russian withdrawal from Kherson. Perhaps you meant the bridges on the Dnipro river being taken out via HIMARS, cutting off supply lines.  
 

That said, I had found the news flow very confusing around the region of Kherson. Talks of mined dam upstream, potential Russian trap as it was reported by Kiev, definitely Ukrainian did not have the field day they day around the Kharkiv region back in August.  

[UK]

47 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

There is no relation between the explosion Kerch bridge and Russian withdrawal from Kherson. Perhaps you meant the bridges on the Dnipro river being taken out via HIMARS, cutting off supply lines.  
 

That said, I had found the news flow very confusing around the region of Kherson. Talks of mined dam upstream, potential Russian trap as it was reported by Kiev, definitely Ukrainian did not have the field day they day around the Kharkiv region back in August.  

 

Russian workers have made progress repairing a key bridge to Crimea that was severely damaged in a blast that Moscow blamed on Ukraine, officials said, but the span is not expected to be fully operational before next year. The structure — the 12-mile Kerch Strait Bridge that connects Crimea to Russia — holds symbolic and strategic value for Moscow, serving as a key logistics link that has been vital for the Kremlin’s war effort in Ukraine. Marat Khusnullin, a Russian deputy prime minister in charge of the country’s infrastructure, said on Tuesday that the first of four replacement spans of the bridge had been installed. The full restoration will not be completed before next September, Mr. Khusnillin told President Vladimir V. Putin last week. The bridge was damaged by a vast explosion in October that sent two spans of the bridge tumbling into the water. Several other spans, including railway tracks, were severely damaged by a resulting fire. The incident dealt an embarrassing blow to the Kremlin, not just because the bridge had served as the primary supply route for Moscow’s forces fighting in southern Ukraine amid a Ukrainian counteroffensive, but also because the bridge holds deep symbolism for Mr. Putin as a pillar of his disputed claim to the Crimean Peninsula since the structure’s completion in 2018. Although one railway track and one roadway were still operational after the blast, the explosion reduced Moscow’s ability to move equipment and troops to Crimea and Ukraine’s south. 

Edited November 9, 2022 by UK

[Pelagic]

1 hour ago, Xerxes said:

There is no relation between the explosion Kerch bridge and Russian withdrawal from Kherson. Perhaps you meant the bridges on the Dnipro river being taken out via HIMARS, cutting off supply lines.  
 

That said, I had found the news flow very confusing around the region of Kherson. Talks of mined dam upstream, potential Russian trap as it was reported by Kiev, definitely Ukrainian did not have the field day they day around the Kharkiv region back in August.  

 

I'd strongly disagree. The bridges across the Dnipro had already been under Ukrainian fire from HIMARS for several months before the Kerch bridge attack. Supplying forces on the west bank was difficult but not impossible for Russia before October. Once the Kerch bridge was damaged it compounded an already bad situation. Yes, there is a route through southern Ukraine but it adds days to already strained Russian logistics in the region. There's no easy replacement for the heavy rail traffic that came across the Kerch bridge.

 

Whether Russia decides to destroy the dam at Nova Khakhovha on their way across remains to be seen. What is certain is they have little to no means of transporting a lot of their armored vehicles across the Dnipro. The throughput of the barges they have in service is simply too little for the number of vehicles and troops that need to cross.

[Xerxes]

Understood, I just thought perhaps you meant different bridge. Thanks. 

[no_free_lunch]

I don't want to get ahead of myself on this but very good to see.  As I understand it, part of the success in Kharkov was the result of Russia fortifying Kherson region.  For them to lose both is quite an embarrassment.  I can see why Russia keeps talking tac nukes, it's defensive as they are revealing that they have no functioning military.

Edited November 10, 2022 by no_free_lunch

[aws]

If it's true that the Kremlin is ordering a withdrawal from Kherson (and that's a big if since the Kremlin always lies), that would be great, but it's definitely different vibes than the Kharkiv victory. I doubt they'll be any troves of Russian equipment left behind in this retreat. Russia also took their time and stole everything they could from Kherson, from the city buses to the museums. And after they forced civilians to flee with whatever they could carry, the soldiers probably went into their homes and stole everything that wasn't nailed down. More washing machines for the motherland.

 

The supply situation meant holding Kherson was a huge burden for Russia, probably untenable during the winter. Maybe it's better for them to take a smaller humiliation now than risk a much bigger humiliation later, but then I guess if they were following that playbook they would have stopped escalating this war a long time ago.

[Xerxes]

I would add that the retreat of the seasoned forces in proper order (as opposed to being routed) actually implies some proper strategic thinking by the Kremlin high command. They are being clear headed. Never a good thing, when the enemy is being clear headed.
 

So it is good for the people of Kherson that they are (allegedly) gone, but bode less well for the war effort, messa think. 

[UK]

4 hours ago, no_free_lunch said:

I don't want to get ahead of myself on this but very good to see.  As I understand it, part of the success in Kharkov was the result of Russia fortifying Kherson region.  For them to lose both is quite an embarrassment.  I can see why Russia keeps talking tac nukes, it's defensive as they are revealing that they have no functioning military.

 

I donnt want to get ahead also, but recently they also toned down nukes speech a lot. Much more now they are talking about "national unity" etc and about "openess to negotiation". Just look: https://tass.com/politics/1534305. It it almost impossible to believe (so I still dont), or maybe China or/and India did something, after recent dirty bomb information campaign by Shoigu:)

 

 

Edited November 10, 2022 by UK

[shhughes1116]

16 hours ago, Xerxes said:

I would add that the retreat of the seasoned forces in proper order (as opposed to being routed) actually implies some proper strategic thinking by the Kremlin high command. They are being clear headed. Never a good thing, when the enemy is being clear headed.

Let’s see how Kherson unfolds before we start commenting about seasoned troops retreating in proper order as opposed to being routed.  
 

The stuff I’m seeing on telegram suggests things are falling apart in Kherson.

[no_free_lunch]

19 hours ago, Xerxes said:

I would add that the retreat of the seasoned forces in proper order (as opposed to being routed) actually implies some proper strategic thinking by the Kremlin high command. They are being clear headed. Never a good thing, when the enemy is being clear headed.
 

So it is good for the people of Kherson that they are (allegedly) gone, but bode less well for the war effort, messa think. 

 

They are being clear headed?  They are losing a city that they just annexed.  They just told their countrymen that that is core Russian territory and now they can't hold their own territory.  It's an embarrassment and this is where their "strong" army was too.

[aws]

2 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

 

They are being clear headed?  They are losing a city that they just annexed.  They just told their countrymen that that is core Russian territory and now they can't hold their own territory.  It's an embarrassment and this is where their "strong" army was too.

 

 

 

[Xerxes]

3 hours ago, no_free_lunch said:

 

They are being clear headed?  They are losing a city that they just annexed.  They just told their countrymen that that is core Russian territory and now they can't hold their own territory.  It's an embarrassment and this is where their "strong" army was too.

@no_free_lunch
 

yes, clear headed as oppose to turning that force into Chuikov 62nd Army and telling them to hold the ground. That is being clear headed. Don’t confuse Putin’s political powwow with realities on the ground. 
 

but I guess believe whatever you want 

 

@shhughes1116

 

yes, in contrast to the rout in Kharkiv (obviously). There is a difference between the speed at which that northern front unravelled and the slow grind in the south. 

[UK]

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3611403-general-staff-russia-did-not-ask-ukraine-for-green-corridor-to-withdraw-troops-from-kherson.html

 

"According to the available information, the Russian side addressed neither the leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, nor the leadership of the General Staff, nor the command of the army groups with a request to create so-called ‘green corridor’," Brigadier General Oleksiy Hromov, Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Department of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said at a briefing, answering Ukrinform's question about the request for a "green corridor" for the invaders. Earlier today, Serhiy Khlan, a member of the Kherson Regional Council, said that the Russians were moving their equipment to the left bank of the Dnipro River, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroying it.

[Spekulatius]

They are trying an ordered retreat but they only have 2 bridges that under constant bombardment to get 40k soldiers and their equipment out. They will likely lose a lot of soldiers and material in this retreat and it can easily end up being a rout.

Those that are doing rear guard duty will have to sacrifice themselves and either die or go into captivity . These are some of the better troops that Russia has, so their absence will be felt in this war for a long time to come.

[Xerxes]

This is amazing

 

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/mystery-flag-honour-dieppe-raids-015703175.html

[shhughes1116]

3 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

. These are some of the better troops that Russia has, so their absence will be felt in this war for a long time to come.

I’m not so sure about this.  The various stuff that I follow suggests that they had been feeding the new conscripts into the Kherson defensive line and pulling out the VDV troops.  My suspicion is that most of the VDV and their equipment is already out of Kherson, and the mobiks were left holding the bag.  
 

By withdrawing from Kherson, Russian has allowed Ukraine to shorten their line and re-deploy troops.  ukraine has/had about 50k combat troops along the Kherson line.  With Russians on the other side of the Dnipro now, Ukraine only needs about half that number to defend the river, and maybe less given the Russians ability to cross rivers and the width of the Dnipro.   
 

I continue to think Polohy is the next focal point for Ukraine, and onwards to Mariupol and Melitpol.
 

 

 

[no_free_lunch]

Rumors that it's going down in Kherson. Even the pro Russia accounts I follow are really struggling with this.  This is big. This is the first major city to be liberated and is very demoralizing for Russia.  Pro Russia accounts now focusing on some indeterminate future whrn conscripts kick in, full war is declared and the tides shifts back to them, what a joke. They are saying that actually Ukraine army is one of the strongest in the world, lol, not true but yes they seem willing to dievto avoid genocide if the people.   Meanwhile hard to justify your Russiam kids dying when you aren't even succeeding in the mission. 

 

Ukraine side is saying this will put roads to crimea in range of himars.   Perhaps they can slowly strangulate the Russians from this new position.

 

I appreciate your perspective shhughes.   I hope they can keep the momentum up.

 

Xerxes you don't have anything intelligent to say here so stop barking like a poodle. 

Edited November 11, 2022 by no_free_lunch

[Spekulatius]

48 minutes ago, shhughes1116 said:

I’m not so sure about this.  The various stuff that I follow suggests that they had been feeding the new conscripts into the Kherson defensive line and pulling out the VDV troops.  My suspicion is that most of the VDV and their equipment is already out of Kherson, and the mobiks were left holding the bag.  
 

By withdrawing from Kherson, Russian has allowed Ukraine to shorten their line and re-deploy troops.  ukraine has/had about 50k combat troops along the Kherson line.  With Russians on the other side of the Dnipro now, Ukraine only needs about half that number to defend the river, and maybe less given the Russians ability to cross rivers and the width of the Dnipro.   
 

I continue to think Polohy is the next focal point for Ukraine, and onwards to Mariupol and Melitpol.
 

 

 

You are likely correct. The Russian retreat does not look like  rout and they may have just sacrificed some conscripts to preserve their regular army.

 

Crossing the Dnipro under fire would be tough, so I expect this front line to become quieter, likely with artillery duels continuing.

[Dinar]

28 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

Rumors that it's going down in Kherson. Even the pro Russia accounts I follow are really struggling with this.  This is big. This is the first major city to be liberated and is very demoralizing for Russia.  Pro Russia accounts now focusing on some indeterminate future whrn conscripts kick in, full war is declared and the tides shifts back to them, what a joke. They are saying that actually Ukraine army is one of the strongest in the world, lol, not true but yes they seem willing to dievto avoid genocide if the people.   Meanwhile hard to justify your Russiam kids dying when you aren't even succeeding in the mission. 

 

Ukraine side is saying this will put roads to crimea in range of himars.   Perhaps they can slowly strangulate the Russians from this new position.

 

I appreciate your perspective shhughes.   I hope they can keep the momentum up.

 

Xerxes you don't have anything intelligent to say here so stop barking like a poodle. 

I disagree with you, I find Xerxes commentary to be generally on point and quite interesting.   Let's keep it civil, please.  

[Pelagic]

More and more I'm starting to think this war is going to be won 50 miles at a time. Russia doesn't have an answer to HIMARS and simply doesn't have the road logistics to support the kind of force it has that relies heavily on mass artillery. They can bring supplies to within 50 miles or so of the front by train but from there they don't have an answer to actually getting sufficient quantities to the front and can't sustain heavy operations against Ukraine.

 

Having a defensive line along the Dnipro now frees up a lot of Ukrainian troops that were in Kherson for a push south toward the Sea of Azov starting somewhere in the Zaphorizha region. The goal being to sever the rail line in southern Ukraine that Russia has access to. Combined with the destruction of the Kerch bridge, it will starve Russian forces in Crimea and southern Ukraine. It will take time, and Ukraine isn't likely to commit forces to a large scale urban battle where they'd sustain heavy losses, but they'll simply keep doing what works, degrading Russian forces within range of HIMARS and their artillery until they retreat. Ukraine is starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel. 

[no_free_lunch]

1 hour ago, Dinar said:

I disagree with you, I find Xerxes commentary to be generally on point and quite interesting.   Let's keep it civil, please.  

Why would I be civil to those backing genocide?

[Dinar]

48 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

Why would I be civil to those backing genocide?

Exactly when did Xerxes backed genocide?