Russia-Ukrainian War

[Xerxes]

4 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

By the way, this perfectly holds true for Taiwan. US should absolutely support Taiwan's independence, because there is a clear objective, it is doable, there is a will from the population to stay independent and fight for it and it also serves our interest, as well as it seems the right thing to do from a western moral POV.
 

Some may not agree here, but that's how I see it.

 

But we had no problem kicking them off UN 5 decades ago as Nixon and Kissinger dined and wined with Mao, who had under his belt by then had tens of million of chinese deaths. 

 

I get that it makes sense to be close to Taiwan now. But passing this as some moral thing, there I disgree. 

 

We didnt join forces with Stalin to defeat Hitler because of idealogical disagreement. If Stalin and his horde were based in what is called today as Germany, and if Hitler and his Nazi legions were located in what is now Russia, we would be allying with Hitler to crush Stalin. It is just a matter of who was the closest threat to the Western civilization.

 

And in that alternate scenario, in this picture it would be Adolf Hitler sitting alongside Churchill and FDR. And not Stalin. 

 

Edited September 28, 2022 by Xerxes

[james22]

6 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Also, somewhat independent of this, the Russian economy will take a huge hit from this mobilization.

 

Vladimir Putin’s decision to call up 300,000 men to fight in his invasion of Ukraine is hitting two of the battered Russian economy’s weak spots.

 

The order takes about one in a hundred of the country’s active workers from their jobs to send to the front when record-low unemployment – combined with the exodus of Russians fleeing the country to avoid the mobilization – means there are few candidates to replace them. And it’s likely to batter Russians’ already-fragile finances, leaving some draftees’ families short of cash.

 

https://news.yahoo.com/putin-mobilization-hits-russia-economy-095203471.html

[james22]

7 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

We do not know how many have been drafted burnside clear that it’s way more than 300k, probably between 500k and 1M...

 

Hidden paragraph of Putin's decree allows 1 million Russians to be mobilised

 

https://news.yahoo.com/hidden-paragraph-putins-decree-allows-115625603.html

[Pelagic]

A bit of color from the Russian side early in the war. It seems most realized very early on that their objectives were impossible and their leaders had no idea what was going on.

 

 

[james22]

If history is any guide, Russia will again be fighting both their Ukrainian foes and the vodka bottle.

 

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/09/28/putins-military-draft-is-unpopular-so-what-00059145

[Spekulatius]

Interesting take from Sky news /Michael Clarke regarding the pipeline incident in the Baltics:

Michael’s takes on Ukraine have been excellent so far. I highly recommend listening to his short reports on YouTube.

Edited September 28, 2022 by Spekulatius

[Xerxes]

Pretty good analysis. 

If it was indeed the Kremlin, might have made more sense to do it on new line from Poland. There hasn’t been any posturing yet in the Baltics between the West and the Kremlin and they could have scored and gotten away.

 

 

[Xerxes]

[Spekulatius]

10 hours ago, Xerxes said:

Pretty good analysis. 

If it was indeed the Kremlin, might have made more sense to do it on new line from Poland. There hasn’t been any posturing yet in the Baltics between the West and the Kremlin and they could have scored and gotten away.

 

 

Yes, sabotaging the pipeline to Poland would have made a real economic impact, but may also be considered an act of war against NATO.

 

This pipeline is really a stranded asset so sabotaging it has no real impact, but Putin comes from KGB, he likes to do mindgames, diversions and blackmail etc. (see the drama with the pipeline turbine as an example)

 

If we do get a covert war in the Baltics, having the Swedes and the Fins join the NATO is coming in very handy. The Swedes have a few good submarines and anti submarine ships and a decent air force.

[Castanza]

5 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Yes, sabotaging the pipeline to Poland would have made a real economic impact, but may also be considered an act of war against NATO.

 

This pipeline is really a stranded asset so sabotaging it has no real impact, but Putin comes from KGB, he likes to do mindgames, diversions and blackmail etc. (see the drama with the pipeline turbine as an example)

 

If we do get a covert war in the Baltics, having the Swedes and the Fins join the NATO is coming in very handy. The Swedes have a few good submarines and anti submarine ships and a decent air force.

Do we know for sure who did it yet? 

 

Why would the Poland Defense Minister say it was the US? Why would Biden vow to "shut it down"? 

[Spekulatius]

12 minutes ago, Castanza said:

Do we know for sure who did it yet? 

 

Why would the Poland Defense Minister say it was the US? Why would Biden vow to "shut it down"? 

We do not know for sure. Germany shut down the pipeline (never commissioned it and pledged no to do so) so it's not in operation and will never get into operation. Strictly speaking , this pipeline is a stranded asset because other pipelines could handle the contracted flows, but that's all mute because no gas is flowing.

 

The only reason to sabotage it is to play mind games or as a covert threat. We will find out soon enough when this is investigated. We know that 2 separate pipelines are very very unlikely tot blow up at the same time, so the accident hypothesis out the window already.

 

 

Edited September 29, 2022 by Spekulatius

[Castanza]

53 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

We do not know for sure. Germany shut down the pipeline (never commissioned it and pledged no to do so) so it's not in operation and will never get into operation. Strictly speaking , this pipeline is a stranded asset because other pipelines could handle the contracted flows, but that's all mute because no gas is flowing.

 

The only reason to sabotage it is to play mind games or as a covert threat. We will find out soon enough when this is investigated. We know that 2 separate pipelines are very very unlikely tot blow up at the same time, so the accident hypothesis out the window already.

 

 

 

Four possibilities in my opinion. 

1.) Russia

2.) CIA/SEALs

3.) GROM

4.) Greta Thunberg 

[Spekulatius]

1 minute ago, Castanza said:

 

Four possibilities in my opinion. 

1.) Russia

2.) CIA/SEALs

3.) GROM

4.) Greta Thunberg 

Time for a deep dive for sure.

[Xerxes]

19 hours ago, Xerxes said:

^^^

Activision's Call of Duty franchise is going to make a killing if they play their cards right with this conflict ... and dont screw it up. 

 

There would be a massive consumer demand, everyone would want to play the Ukrainians, there is enough real combat going from partisan stuff, tank-poping javelines, stingers, artillery duels etc., drone war, sabotage behind the lines etc.

 

The plate is set for Activision, if they can ensure not to screw it up.

They got the demand, the known franchise, and the money

 

 

 

Call of Duty: Kremlin Strikes Back -- Coming to you Dec 2022

 

Campaign 0:  Blunt the Spearhead: Hostomel Airport

Campaign 1:   Javeline, Stingers and the Seige of Kiev

Campaign 2:   The fall, re-capture of Snake Island & Sinking of the Moskva

Campaign 3:   Behind the line: Belgorod & Urals

Campaign 4:   Artillery-HIMAR Duels in the Donbass

Campaign 5:   The right hook feint at Kherson; left hook at Kharkiv

Campaign 6:   The Little Green Men in the Baltics

 

 

[Spekulatius]

11 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

 

 

Call of Duty: Kremlin Strikes Back -- Coming to you Dec 2022

 

Campaign 0:  Blunt the Spearhead: Hostomel Airport

Campaign 1:   Javeline, Stingers and the Seige of Kiev

Campaign 2:   The fall, re-capture of Snake Island & Sinking of the Moskva

Campaign 3:   Behind the line: Belgorod & Urals

Campaign 4:   Artillery-HIMAR Duels in the Donbass

Campaign 5:   The right hook feint at Kherson; left hook at Kharkiv

Campaign 6:   The Little Green Men in the Baltics

 

 

Soon followed by the

Campaign 7:  Kesselschlacht in Lyman

Campaign 8:  Orcensturm - defend against the attack of the conscripts horde. 1M russian conscripts against 100k Ukrainians.

[Castanza]

It's already been done in 2020

 

"Call of Duty: Warzone's Verdansk map is heavily inspired by real-life locations, buildings and regions of Donetsk, Chernobyl and other Ukrainian landmarks."

[shhughes1116]

5 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Yes, sabotaging the pipeline to Poland would have made a real economic impact, but may also be considered an act of war against NATO.

 

This pipeline is really a stranded asset so sabotaging it has no real impact, but Putin comes from KGB, he likes to do mindgames, diversions and blackmail etc. (see the drama with the pipeline turbine as an example)

 

If we do get a covert war in the Baltics, having the Swedes and the Fins join the NATO is coming in very handy. The Swedes have a few good submarines and anti submarine ships and a decent air force.

 

If sabotaging the Baltic Pipe to Poland is considered an act of war against NATO, what would you do to cause panic and fearmongering in the EU about natural gas supplies without actually blowing up the Baltic Pipe? 

 

Maybe you would blow up your own pipe - a stranded asset that will never be used - at a location near where the Baltic Pipe passes over the Nordstream pipes?  You avoid an act of war, cause NATO to re-deploy assets to the Baltic Sea to protect energy infrastructure, and create even more fear in the EU about an apocalyptic winter without sufficient nat gas.

 

it was clearly the Russians that did this.  The problem Russia faces is that this action may bolster the case to isolate Kalinagrad.  If the Baltic states block all land transport to Kalinagrad, and a maybe a drunk ship captain accidentally ran his ship aground near the channel entrance to the port, Kalinagrad would be completely isolated with the fleet stuck in the port.  NATO and the EU could literally starve Kalinagrad into submission.  

 

 

[Xerxes]

^^^ Kremlin already committed an act of war when it interfered in U.S. dometic election. For all we know, the explosions in Urals could have been the work of U.S. (or NATO) intellgence agencies, which is also an act of war.

 

There is no shortage of items that can be considered an act of war in this conflict, by either side. These are just legal terms, what matters is the "threshold point".

 

I dont know who did this (without proof). But I would say that blowing up own' stranded asset to divert military asset to the area, or to signalng a potential for a wider conflict, seems to be a logical approach. But I cannot equate logic with proof. Two different things.

 

Could the Poles have done it on their own. Using the same logic ? we would never know. 

We know how much they like to poke Germany for North Stream and Moscow as well.

Edited September 29, 2022 by Xerxes

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, shhughes1116 said:

 

If sabotaging the Baltic Pipe to Poland is considered an act of war against NATO, what would you do to cause panic and fearmongering in the EU about natural gas supplies without actually blowing up the Baltic Pipe? 

 

Maybe you would blow up your own pipe - a stranded asset that will never be used - at a location near where the Baltic Pipe passes over the Nordstream pipes?  You avoid an act of war, cause NATO to re-deploy assets to the Baltic Sea to protect energy infrastructure, and create even more fear in the EU about an apocalyptic winter without sufficient nat gas.

 

it was clearly the Russians that did this.  The problem Russia faces is that this action may bolster the case to isolate Kalinagrad.  If the Baltic states block all land transport to Kalinagrad, and a maybe a drunk ship captain accidentally ran his ship aground near the channel entrance to the port, Kalinagrad would be completely isolated with the fleet stuck in the port.  NATO and the EU could literally starve Kalinagrad into submission.  

 

 

it is also my opinion that Russia is the primary suspect. We can't say for sure, but it just fits the pattern with Putin's cat and mouse games and history of indirect threats. KGB tactics. It's also coincidental with the Norway Poland pipeline starting up just a day or so ago.

I absolutely think the NATO can easily isolate Kaliningrad, if needed. That's where the Baltic navy command sits that was involved in one way or another if indeed Russia is the culprit.

 

Edited September 29, 2022 by Spekulatius

[Castanza]

Some things I found interesting but doesn't prove anything and could very well just be coincidence. To me this makes more sense than "Putin is crazy therefore he did it." I'm not even sure if he is crazy. He's evil for sure. But there hasn't been a ton of irrational moves strategically speaking (outside of underestimating Ukrainian resistance). Plus saying XYZ Country's leader is crazy is a classic US tactic. Everyone we've faced in the last 75 years has been "Crazy". But like Xerxes said, we don't know for sure and it very well could have been Russia, Poland, or US. 

 

1.) US BaltOps June 22. Goal: Bring underwater demolition and mine hunting capability to the Baltic Sea via US Navy

     -  This takes place in Bornholm. Which is an island located directly between the two pipeline explosions. 

 

2.) US Navy Warfare had amphibious assault ships within 30km from both pipelines prior to demolition (within torpedo range) US Spy planes were also in the area around the same time. 

 

3.) Poland has Naval base just to the to south that holds their Naval Combat Engineer Battalion 

 

4.) Joe Biden has said multiple times that he would shutdown the Nordstream Pipelines

5.) Russia would happily export Gas and Oil (as they have been). They still need funds and getting sanctions lifted is still a goal of theirs. 

6.) US has been involved in sabotaging Russia Pipelines in the past via CIA under Reagan. The CIA also warned Germany of a pipeline attack prior to it happening. So it's not outside the playbook. 

 

Q: Why would Russia blow up a pipeline that they could simply turn off? Leverage over Germany is now gone. 

Q: Why would Russia destroy a 20B pipeline that was created so they could avoid transit fees of other lines? 

 

 

[james22]

“So, LawDog,” I hear you say, “What do you think happened?”

 

Honestly, I suspect someone in the Russian government pinged Gazprom, and said, “The EU is about to have a cold winter. make sure those pipelines sodding well work, so we can sell someone natural gas at massively increased prices.”

 

So, Somebody In Charge started running checks — and came up with hydrate slurry in both pipelines. After the running in circles, hyperventilating, and shrieking of curse-words stopped, somebody started trying to remediate both lines. Of course they didn’t tell folks down stream — no Russian want to look weak, and besides, there’s been a nasty uptick in failed Russian oligarchs getting accidentally defenestrated — they just unilaterally tried to Fix Things.

 

It’s methane hydrate. Trust me, if there’s a hydrate plug, there’s more than one. With both pipes having no movement for months, if not a year, there were a metric butt-ton of hydrate plugs, slurry, and rime in both pipelines.

 

The Fixing of Things went bad. One went Paws Up, and they started trying to stop the other — but pressurisation (both ways) is a weeks-long process, and the second went bad, too. 

 

It happens.

 

https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/09/nordstream.html

[shhughes1116]

Looks like the Ukrainians are starting to receive M30A1 rockets.  Instead of a unitary warhead, these rockets have the successor to cluster bombs - they have 160k tungsten balls.  Effective when you are targeting dispersed soft targets like a truck depot or infantry positions.  
 

Maybe the West is running short on GMLRS rockets with a unitary warhead.  Or maybe the Ukrainians want to provide a warm welcome to the hordes of Russian conscripts that are disembarking from trains and trucks.  
 

Could be confirmation bias, but this is another data point that suggests to me that the Ukrainians are getting ready for another big push.  My bet is still towards Polohy, and beyond that to Mauriupul and Melitpol.  

[Pelagic]

Interesting theory @james22. This piece makes the point that Nordstream 1 & 2 have two actual pipes each. Interesting that one of NS 2's is undamaged. Deliberate sabotage of that magnitude would aim to take out all 4 pipes one would think.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/28/world/europe/nordstream-pipeline-gas-leak-explosions.html

 

Quote

“A gas leak of this nature is extremely rare,” Mr. Böttzauw said. “It is unlikely that three gas leaks would occur in one accident within 24 hours.”

Swedish seismologists on Monday detected two separate underwater explosions near where the leaks were later identified. Both lines of Nord Stream 1 were damaged, whereas only one of Nord Stream 2’s lines was ruptured, which means that, at least theoretically, gas could flow through the second line.

 

[no_free_lunch]

I suspect the pipelines were taken out by the US.  It's to their advantage and Biden said they would do it.

 

From an American perspective, they have paid for Germany's defense for the last 70 years.  Germany boasts of how advantageous it is economically.  However, they then go against US interests with their nat gas purchases from an American enemy.  They then refuse to ante up in any significant way to the war in Ukraine despite it being more their issue than Americas.  Why would the US accept that?  I can see how America might not be sympathetic and will question Germany's decision making skills.  Once you are there, not a big step to remove their ability to negotiate with Russia completely.

Edited September 30, 2022 by no_free_lunch

[james22]

I like to think you're right, no_free_lunch.

 

Because: no free lunch, Germany.