Parsad Posted March 25 Posted March 25 6 minutes ago, John Hjorth said: HaHa! - It's OK, Greg [ @Gregmal ], I have so say that I've been called out, by Sanjeev [ @Parsad ], quite a few times earlier, for getting really pi$$ed about something posted by someone here on CofB&F. Every time, I've been called out, reading Sanjeevs [ @Parsads] view on the situation at hand, I've always ended up being embarrased, too impulsive in the situation, posting an excuse in public here on CofB&F, adressed at the person, that turned me on. - - - o 0 o - - - The report button is actually is very good valve for releasing surplus steam! - - - o 0 o - - - We have to get along, here on CofB&F! John, I think you've done a wonderful job over the years becoming a pseudo-moderator and peacemaker for TCOBF! If anything, you are an asset to the board. Cheers!
John Hjorth Posted March 25 Posted March 25 (edited) 17 minutes ago, Parsad said: John, I think you've done a wonderful job over the years becoming a pseudo-moderator and peacemaker for TCOBF! If anything, you are an asset to the board. Cheers! I personally think I've myself become easier to deal with, getting older ! Tomorrow, lots of squats!, and 30 minutes - giving it all I've got - in the cross-fit NUSTEP T5XR : When I log on CofB&F in the evening tomorrow, my local time, I'll have absolutely no energy left to get in trouble in this topic! Edited March 25 by John Hjorth
Viking Posted March 25 Posted March 25 (edited) Great podcast on the impact of the war in the middle east on plastics. the impact to date has been modest. But in about 2 to 3 weeks the impact could be severe. In other words, we are getting to an inflection point. Plastics is interesting because of the demand destruction aspect. If jet fuel spikes in price, air fares spike and people fly less - reducing demand. The problem with plastics is for many uses like food packaging there are limited substitutes. When packaging prices spike the cost of the food item goes up. But people don’t eat less. There is limited demand destruction - which makes the problem worse. A medium term impact is supply from the middle east will likely carry a risk premium. This should result in more production shifting to the US. It is pretty obvious that the longer the war goes on the more Iran’s position improves and the more the position of the US deteriorates. The past 4 weeks have been foreplay. Things are about to get spicy in the next 2 or 3 weeks. Oil, LNG, refined products/plastics, fertilizers… all matter to the global economy. A lot. The rational thing for Iran to do would be to delay - keep the straight closed. The rational thing for the US to do would be quick resolution - open the straight. What is priced in to financial markets? A quick resolution. Trump is the master at pivoting - he has been Houdini-like in escaping from what appear to be tight spots. Hopefully he can work some magic this weekend. If not… financial markets might get their Wiley Coyote moment. Edited March 25 by Viking
UK Posted March 25 Posted March 25 3 hours ago, Parsad said: Try regulating it if it wasn't restricted to this thread! I would have to ban 10% of the board members! Cheers!
cubsfan Posted March 25 Posted March 25 35 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said: The only boner republicans are willing to eat: Imagine the liberal meltdown if this was a statue of Obama. You wouldn't see any smile around here I guarantee you.
cubsfan Posted March 25 Posted March 25 19 minutes ago, John Hjorth said: I personally think I've myself become easier to deal with, getting older ! Tomorrow, lots of squats!, and 30 minutes - giving it all I've got - in the cross-fit NUSTEP T5XR : When I log on CofB&F in the evening tomorrow, my local time, I'll have absolutely no energy left to get in trouble in this topic! You're a huge asset here John. But I'm really impressed with this picture of you working out. Join the "old man" workout club! It's the only way to go.
cubsfan Posted March 25 Posted March 25 10 minutes ago, Viking said: It is pretty obvious that the longer the war goes on the more Iran’s position improves and the more the position of the US deteriorates. Here we go again. The longer the war goes on, the more Iranian assets are obliterated and the death cult killed. Makes total sense if you are the Black Knight.
Gregmal Posted March 25 Posted March 25 1 minute ago, cubsfan said: Here we go again. The longer the war goes on, the more Iranian assets are obliterated and the death cult killed. Makes total sense if you are the Black Knight. Right? Irans definitely gonna win a spending/economic war with the US….
Maverick47 Posted March 25 Posted March 25 1 hour ago, Gregmal said: I mean even something like a voter presenting the same form of identification required to buy a 6 pack, this clown car party throws fits over despite 75% of the country thinking it’s a good idea. I actually don’t like this. I happen to live in a state with only mail ballots, though when completed the ballot can either be dropped off in the mail or in a secure ballot collection box. To register, I provided my driver’s license years ago and a signature card, as did my wife. We attested under penalty of perjury that we were both US citizens. We have to sign and date our ballots. Once, when my wife was ill, her signature was shaky and she was asked to validate her signature, otherwise her ballot would be discarded. The process is convenient for me, and it’s clear that someone is validating my identity. Each ballot is individually numbered, and mailed to the last known address of the individual who registered. I can’t just pick up a generic ballot and vote it, let alone do so multiple times. My wife has been on hospice for over a year now and I am her main caregiver. Neither of us can leave the house for more than about a half hour at a time, and with access to shelter and a portable oxygen container. Consequently, neither she nor I would be able to vote in person any longer. Under the SAVE act, I would need to provide either a passport or a certified birth certificate, neither of which I have readily available. I also can’t find my wife’s birth certificate, which, since she was adopted, is only available from a state level governmental organization, not the county recorder. There is a multiple month delay and a cost associated with doing so. I did it once when we needed it to enter Canada without a passport several decades ago, but have misplaced it since then. I don’t know about you, but I have never had to provide a passport or a certified birth certificate when buying beer…just a driver’s license. If that was really all I would need to show to vote, I wouldn’t have a problem with it, but would still appreciate mail in voting as opposed to having to wait in line in person, which I can no longer do. So we two US citizens, who have voted legally our entire lives, would be effectively disenfranchised by the SAVE act. This is like a statistical error where the SAVE act would prevent many more legal voters from voting than the current situation allows illegal voters to vote. i think the 75% favorable polling is based on an erroneous stating of the act, just as you have noted that it would be no more of a barrier than identification needed when buying beer, which turns out to be inaccurate.
Gregmal Posted March 25 Posted March 25 13 minutes ago, Maverick47 said: I don’t know about you, but I have never had to provide a passport or a certified birth certificate when buying beer…just a driver’s license. If that was really all I would need to show to vote, I wouldn’t have a problem with it, but would still appreciate mail in voting as opposed to having to wait in line in person, which I can no longer do. So we two US citizens, who have voted legally our entire lives, would be effectively disenfranchised by the SAVE act. I do agree with you on that. I think those docs are probably overkill. But you have to recall, it was screamed RACIST and bizarrely the Atlanta Braves lost the ASG a few years ago, over asking people to do very basic things around voting. I need 6 points of ID to drive.....liberals basically protest anything that requires asking ANYTHING, to vote. Hardly anyone in America supports that sort of crap, and its basically a giant part of the party platform. In my world it would be a valid form of ID, with a list provided ahead of time, such as you get at the DMV.
Parsad Posted March 25 Posted March 25 42 minutes ago, cubsfan said: Imagine the liberal meltdown if this was a statue of Obama. You wouldn't see any smile around here I guarantee you. That's true! There are jokes I have a hard time laughing at now about Trump...it's just too much of the same stuff, over and over. That being said, Obama didn't take even a tiny fraction of the cheap shots Trump takes...not just at other people, but his own people and staff! You reap what you sow! Cheers!
Blake Hampton Posted March 25 Posted March 25 It doesn't look like Iran is backing down. The administration's best plan so far is threatening to blow up their energy infrastructure, which would likely lead to a humanitarian crisis affecting millions. See but I thought we were there to help? Or was it the nukes? I thought we COMPLETELY AND UTTERLY destroyed those? Do we own Greenland yet? It's very possible we're on the cusp of a major energy shock. A fifth of the world's hydrocarbons can't get to market through Hormuz, and Iran is actively trying to do something similar with the Red Sea. This is a very dangerous situation for the world to be in. How could Biden do this to us?
Viking Posted March 25 Posted March 25 (edited) Asia is being impacted in a major way by the war in the middle east. This makes sense - it is the region where most of the output from the Persian Gulf was going. But markets are global. Should the war continue, the rest of the world will be increasingly impacted. Below is an article that reviews a note from JP Morgan that reviews the impacts on Asia. There is a parallel here - and that is Covid. When Covid hit, it started in China, a week later it hit South Korea, and then a week later it hit Italy, and then a week later it hit Washington State. North America got a preview by a couple of weeks of the shit storm that was coming. Of interest, financial markets completely ignored it. Until it became impossible to ignore. It looks to me like a similar dynamic is playing out today. The difference is this developing crisis is man made. As a result, the solution is much easier than Covid - it doesn’t require the world to discover a vaccine. So we will get a solution. The only question is how quick it comes. Absent regime change in Iran, my guess is it will be economic pressure that drives the solution. And the economic pressure today is apparently not severe enough (the Straight of Hormuz remains closed). But as we can see from the article below, it is clear the economic pressure is ramping up. So I am optimistic that a solution is coming. Yes, crazy times. ————— Energy: JPMorgan warns demand destruction has already begun (and models aren’t measuring it properly) https://www.shale24.com/en/oil-gas/energy-jpmorgan-warns-demand-destruction-has-already-begun-and-models-arent-measuring-it-properly-n809/amp In an Oil Flash Note, the bank’s Global Markets Strategy team estimated that the price effect of crude on global demand would trim just 1 million barrels per day in April. But there is a second form of demand destruction that standard elasticity does not capture: the one that occurs when physical inputs simply do not arrive. JPMorgan documented it company by company in Asia and concluded it is already underway. JPMorgan does not typically title its market notes with statements in the present tense. The Oil Flash Note from its Global Markets Strategy team carries a subtitle that leaves little room for interpretation: demand destruction has already begun. Not “could begin.” Not “is at risk.” It has already begun. The bank devotes the document to explaining why standard financial models are underestimating it. The core argument hinges on a distinction that may seem technical but has direct market implications. There are two types of demand destruction. The first is what elasticity models capture: when prices rise enough, consumers adjust. The second occurs when physical inputs do not arrive regardless of the price buyers are willing to pay—what JPMorgan describes as demand destruction driven by the physical absence of inputs. That is what has been unfolding in Asia since mid-March, and it is what standard financial models fail to capture. Edited March 25 by Viking
Blake Hampton Posted March 25 Posted March 25 How is it that a blundering fucking moron like Trump could ever be so manipulative? Is it the fact that he is so incompetent and disgusting that draws people to him? Serious. I do not understand it. Even the WSJ was championing this fool back in 2024, like he wasn't gonna become president and cause chaos. It should have been obvious to anyone with half a fucking brain that this dude was up to no good. Yet here we are. We have people on a Buffett board defending this lunatic. It would almost be hilarious if it weren't so goddamn terrifying.
Blake Hampton Posted March 25 Posted March 25 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Viking said: Asia is being impacted in a major way by the war in the middle east. This makes sense - it is the region where most of the output from the Persian Gulf was going. But markets are global. Should the war continue, the rest of the world will be increasingly impacted. 80% to be exact. Countries like South Korea and Japan get more than two-thirds of their oil imports from the Middle East. China relies on them for more than 50% of theirs. A whole can of worms would be opened if Japan were to experience a lot of inflation. But who cares. Edited March 25 by Blake Hampton
UK Posted March 25 Posted March 25 (edited) https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/least-40-russias-oil-export-capacity-halted-reuters-calculations-show-2026-03-25/ Yet https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-oil-prices-fall-prospect-middle-east-ceasefire-easing-supply-disruption-2026-03-24/ Edited March 25 by UK
Blake Hampton Posted March 25 Posted March 25 The saddest part is a lot of people that got taken by this man aren't even bad people, many of them not stupid either. I've said it before and I'll say it again: there are many who I deeply love who voted for this. I use angry rhetoric simply because I'm frustrated. I'm upset at what's happening with both the world and my country. I am sad that we could let something like this happen, that we could ever let a man like Trump take the reigns of the most powerful country on Earth. If you think there are not consequences to this, that there is no price attached to all of this madness that we're seeing, you are making a mistake. Maybe Trump works his way out of this one. We'll see. But what is certain, is if that happens, we'll simply move on to the next stage of Trump induced chaos. There will come a time when the option to escape simply isn't there. And when that happens, when that day finally comes, you can be sure that we'll all be standing there right beside him.
Blake Hampton Posted March 25 Posted March 25 16 minutes ago, Gregmal said: Blake what kind of mattress do you store your money under? A big one.
Parsad Posted March 25 Posted March 25 24 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said: How is it that a blundering fucking moron like Trump could ever be so manipulative? Is it the fact that he is so incompetent and disgusting that draws people to him? Serious. I do not understand it. Even the WSJ was championing this fool back in 2024, like he wasn't gonna become president and cause chaos. It should have been obvious to anyone with half a fucking brain that this dude was up to no good. Yet here we are. We have people on a Buffett board defending this lunatic. It would almost be hilarious if it weren't so goddamn terrifying. If you serve up slop on two separate plates...you have no idea which plate of slop people will pick. There was nothing of substance behind Harris, and Biden was suffering from age and obvious mental issues. With Trump, maybe not any more competent, but he was going to make changes that many Americans agreed with. If Trump did just that, he probably would be more popular right now. Unfortunately, his personality, narcissism and mean-spiritedness detract from ANY sort of progress he does actually make. Can any Democrat honestly criticize what he's done with the southern border (naturally ignoring the lack of due process/deportations/family separations/etc). But that border is secure and cleaned up! He probably would have more wins if he actually listened to the generals and other qualified leaders he puts in place, rather than the numbnuts running many departments and then firing/dismissing the actual qualified people. Cheers!
Blake Hampton Posted March 25 Posted March 25 1 minute ago, Parsad said: If you serve up slop on two separate plates...you have no idea which plate of slop people will pick. There was nothing of substance behind Harris, and Biden was suffering from age and obvious mental issues. With Trump, maybe not any more competent, but he was going to make changes that many Americans agreed with. If Trump did just that, he probably would be more popular right now. Unfortunately, his personality, narcissism and mean-spiritedness detract from ANY sort of progress he does actually make. Can any Democrat honestly criticize what he's done with the southern border (naturally ignoring the lack of due process/deportations/family separations/etc). But that border is secure and cleaned up! He probably would have more wins if he actually listened to the generals and other qualified leaders he puts in place, rather than the numbnuts running many departments and then firing/dismissing the actual qualified people. Cheers! I disagree. I think Harris was a far better pick than Trump. I think people were so blinded by their rage and ignorance that they chose to vote for a man that was almost certain to bring severe amounts of chaos into the world. Causing chaos in global trade? Threatening to attack a NATO ally? Sparking a massive Middle Eastern conflict that is restricting a FIFTH of the world's oil supply from getting to market? That would have NEVER happened with Harris. Stupid progressive policies concerning business? Certainly. Stupid energy policy? You can bet your ass on it. But sowing global chaos? Election interference? Throwing the entire top of government into corruption and complete turmoil? The greediest, most ignorant and desperate people in the United States voted to burn the house down.
Parsad Posted March 25 Posted March 25 1 hour ago, Gregmal said: I do agree with you on that. I think those docs are probably overkill. But you have to recall, it was screamed RACIST and bizarrely the Atlanta Braves lost the ASG a few years ago, over asking people to do very basic things around voting. I need 6 points of ID to drive.....liberals basically protest anything that requires asking ANYTHING, to vote. Hardly anyone in America supports that sort of crap, and its basically a giant part of the party platform. In my world it would be a valid form of ID, with a list provided ahead of time, such as you get at the DMV. Yeah, in Canada you can use two pieces of ID...one government ID...one like a bill with your name and address. So it proves who you are, where you live, you reside at that residence, and that you are eligible to vote in that area/district. Although nowadays you can vote at any polling station as long as you have your ID's or vote at early polling stations as well. Mail in ballots are also counted...they are verified independently. Even in the U.S., those without their ID are verified independently...there was no realistic or degree of fraud that would have changed the election. It's just bullshit! Cheers!
Blake Hampton Posted March 25 Posted March 25 I think it's obvious that you're very smart @Parsad. I still think you underestimate the risk with Trump.
Parsad Posted March 25 Posted March 25 4 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said: I disagree. I think Harris was a far better pick than Trump. I think people were so blinded by their rage and ignorance that they chose to vote for a man that was almost certain to bring severe amounts of chaos into the world. Causing chaos in global trade? Threatening to attack a NATO ally? Sparking a massive Middle Eastern conflict that is restricting a FIFTH of the world's oil supply from getting to market? That would have NEVER happened with Harris. Stupid progressive policies concerning business? Certainly. Stupid energy policy? You can bet your ass on it. But sowing global chaos? Election interference? Throwing the entire top of government into corruption and complete turmoil? The greediest, most ignorant and desperate people in the United States voted to burn the house down. She has no clue around finance, trade or investment. I heard her try and answer some basic questions on finance...it was brutal! I'm sure Trump is just as ignorant about many things, but you know he was going to do things that were pro-business/investment/trade. So you are ok with 10M illegals and more pouring in through the southern border? What about the lack of direct investment/manufacturing in the U.S.? Ok with long-term large deficits and increased debt...although I'm not sure Trump is any more fiscally responsible, but generally the GOP is?! Also, the house isn't burning...this is more rhetoric. Yes, oil prices are high, will probably hit businesses globally, and increase the chance of a small, global recession, but the U.S. is in a better position today than it was a year ago domestically. Internationally, yes, a lot of unnecessary damage self-inflicted by the Orange Gooman that will last years, and damaged the U.S. reputation as the world's statesman and its relationships with allies. But domestically, there is a ton of investment coming into the country, borders are secure which will save money long-term and improve access to social programs that were being used by illegals, improving corporate earnings despite the tariffs, higher GDP growth, lower inflation and increased domestic manufacturing/jobs. You can bitch about his failures, but in all honesty, he's had some successes too. Have to call it like I see it! Cheers!
UK Posted March 25 Posted March 25 (edited) 28 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said: The saddest part is a lot of people that got taken by this man aren't even bad people, many of them not stupid either. I've said it before and I'll say it again: there are many who I deeply love who voted for this. I use angry rhetoric simply because I'm frustrated. I'm upset at what's happening with both the world and my country. I am sad that we could let something like this happen, that we could ever let a man like Trump take the reigns of the most powerful country on Earth. If you think there are not consequences to this, that there is no price attached to all of this madness that we're seeing, you are making a mistake. Maybe Trump works his way out of this one. We'll see. But what is certain, is if that happens, we'll simply move on to the next stage of Trump induced chaos. There will come a time when the option to escape simply isn't there. And when that happens, when that day finally comes, you can be sure that we'll all be standing there right beside him. https://www.highexistence.com/charlie-munger-dangers-ideology-intelligent-opinions/ Another thing I think should be avoided is extremely intense ideology, because it cabbages up one’s mind. You’ve seen that. You see a lot of it on TV, you know preachers for instance, they’ve all got different ideas about theology and a lot of them have minds that are made of cabbage. But that can happen with political ideology. And if you’re young it’s easy to drift into loyalties and when you announce that you’re a loyal member and you start shouting the orthodox ideology out what you’re doing is pounding it in, pounding it in, and you’re gradually ruining your mind. So you want to be very careful with this ideology. It’s a big danger. For it is impossible for anyone to begin to learn that which he thinks he already knows. Edited March 25 by UK
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