Political Posts

[Marco Van Basten]

6 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

https://www.calcalistech.com/ctechnews/article/7k547fv7c

 

"The Israeli government is expected to exceed its own deficit ceiling for the third consecutive year. According to estimates from capital markets both in Israel and abroad, the budget deficit in 2025 could surpass 6% of GDP, significantly higher than the 4.9% ceiling set by the government."

 

We are now three years into the various conflicts:

 

Deficit -

2023 - 5.1%

2024 - 8.3%

2025 - ~6.5% (E)...I'll take the over on this

 

I point all this out - only to say the following - Israel's deficit, if history is a lesson, ends up as foreign aid issued from Congress in D.C..its been this way for decades...it is also to say that those who think Israel can fight Iran and fund the costs of it over a long sustained period of time (as great as Israel is) without DEEP DEEP financial and military assistance from the United States are naive. Again i say all these as risk factors for the US for getting entrenched in this situation....yes we are not at trillions.....but over a 10yr period of 12 day war-lite like hostilities between Iran and Israel..... the US could easily find itself on the hook for hundreds of billions of direct costs (aid, weapons etc.) and if Iran decided to pull the Strait of Hormuz lever one could see hundred of billions more in damage to the global economy. 

 

When you get down to it........Planet Earth + the United States has a vested interest in shutting down this conflict and freezing it.......except Bibi doesn't for the reasons I gave you abouve......and in an upside down world......the Bibi tail is wagging the United States dog.....all while we should have tripled down on East Asia by now.

 

Do you know how much in aid have we given to Israel since Oct 7th of 2023?  (I don't and that is why I am asking.)  As for what US interest is, I think, living in NYC, it is to deny Iran a nuke.  We screwed up by letting North Korea and Pakistan have it, and Iran in my opinion is more dangerous than either.  

[changegonnacome]

38 minutes ago, Marco Van Basten said:

Do you know how much in aid have we given to Israel since Oct 7th of 2023? 

 

Cash money $20bn......military equipment of value deemed surplus to requirements cant remember the technical terms is in the billions......humatiriann aid for Gaza and various NGOs required to keep the people alive there as the Gaza strip is demolished by Israel runs to billions......then all the operational costs of moving tankers and military equipment to the ME.....the costs of putting an iron dome over Israel's Iron dome is potentially hundreds of millions during the two big missile attack episodes.

 

If you find a figure which encapsulates it all Id be interested to hear it - but its significant when you think about the cuts to say medicaid that we're in the BBB to save $800bn over 10yrs and that they just had to be done cause we dont have the money here in the US. American first was about prioritizing American's over foreigners.....in this instance I find myself uncomfortably aligned with Tucker Carlson and Steve Bannon. 

 

The real cost however I consider to be is the loss of focus on East Asia inherent in getting bogged down in the Middle East & Ukraine for that matter.

 

 

Edited July 14, 2025 by changegonnacome

[RichardGibbons]

On 7/13/2025 at 9:02 AM, 73 Reds said:

Nah; there is a stark difference between Iran and North Korea.  One does not value life and holds to an ideology of death and destruction.  No comparison whatsoever.

 

I'm genuinely curious. Which is the one that does not value life and holds an ideology of death and destruction?

 

My guess based on context is that you mean Iran, but I find it fascinating that you see a stark difference.

[cubsfan]

6 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

You've missed my point - they did have answer....one you keep ignoring and acting like Israel suffered no consequences for its attack....Iran with aerial bombardment shut down Israel completely and utterly for 12 days straight.....with the Iron Dome interceptor missiles 'in-stock' they we're unable to stop Iran doing significant damage to their cities and ports.....and came perilously close to running out of interceptor missiles after only twelve days....so you know if Iran was doing serious damage to Israeli cities with a functioning Iron Dome you might explain to me what Israeli cities would look like if the Iron Dome stopped functioning? 

 

 

We've had many discussions re:Ukraine and the outrageous costs that the US taxpayer has underwritten in that conflict.......you say "sell Israeli all the arms they like".....you do realize where the money is coming from to buy those arms?....already Israel's fiscal position is in serious trouble after all their expenditures in Gaza, West Bank and fighting proxies.... and top of which now Israel's economy was shut down for 12 days straight in June and billions of dollars of damage done by Iran to Israeli infrastructure......where do you think the money is coming from to buy arms from us moving forward? Yep you got.... Its coming from us.....in this first phase of the conflict it may not look like a 'forever war' cause no US soldiers are coming back through Dover Air Force base (yet)........but in terms of financial payments already made since Oct 7th and obligations accruing in the background it is starting to have forever war-like price tag....which could so easily (when you factor in overt cost plus oil & the damaged to the global) have a forever war price tag that could make Iraq and Afghanistan look cheap....most especially given the fact the US itself is in a perilous fiscal position running 7% deficits....the US can ill afford a middle east boondoggle led by Bibi.

 

In a world of infinite resources and no rising peer competitor in China.....I would get behind a 'backing Israel to the hilt' approach.....I love the country and its people......but its in the best interest of the United States now to shut down and freeze this Israel-Iran war....and focus on China.

 

 

You make very good points. Yes, the war is expensive for Israel and creates a burden, but there is no alternative. Is it an enormous burden on the USA? Not so sure, but I'll take your point. There are some countries worth defending - Israel would be high on my list. Unfortunate conflicts like Iraq and Afghanistan, where installing democracy was a goal - big failures and lessons for the US. 

 

It's great to hear you've visited Israel several times - never been myself.

 

If Israel is forced to defeat terrorism for it's survival, I've got no problem with US pouring money into it. But that's just me. I just don't see a "boondoggle": Israel does the heavy lifting, we provide or sell arms for it's survival. 

 

It appears to me to be in the interest of the entire middle east that Iran be well contained. If there is ever an expanded Abraham Accords including a few new countries - that will be a very good thing. 

[73 Reds]

46 minutes ago, RichardGibbons said:

 

I'm genuinely curious. Which is the one that does not value life and holds an ideology of death and destruction?

 

My guess based on context is that you mean Iran, but I find it fascinating that you see a stark difference.

Which terrorist groups is N. Korea openly arming?  What countries is N. Korea vowing "Death to ....?"  Since when in the last 70 years is South Korea routinely bombed from the North and its citizens murdered, raped and pillaged?  How many S. Koreans have been killed by its neighbors to the north since the end of the Korean War?  Show us the tunnels from North Korea or its proxies to sites elsewhere that are used for death and destruction.  While you're at it, point to the schools, hospitals and residences where North Korea stockpiles its military equipment.  And educate us with the relevant portions of North Korea's charter that seeks punishment for those who defy given religious beliefs.      

[73 Reds]

5 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

I have been to Israel many times, up thread you will have seen me say it is remarkable country and what they have done there in 70yrs+ years is just an astounding achievement

 

However they are a small country of 9.5m people........they are running ~6% fiscal deficits and this was before their whole economy was shut down for half a month and who knows how many billions of property/infrastructure damage done by Iran.....Israel is remarkable place but they not the global reserve currency, they are not large superpower with infinite resources....a war of attrition with Iran a country of 95m people would not work out well for Israel even with US support......Bibi's escalation strategy with Iran has been and is predicated on US involvement..his bet has so far has worked out....

 

However the American public is fickle and by extension so is US political support...........indeed one can see the demographic divide in Congress and in the public regarding support for Israel....for boomers infinite US support for Israel is unquestioned, it is dogma.....below and for an increasing number of young people they have no idea why so much support is given to a country 5,500 miles......Bibi understand this, he is a political genius who can see around corners......he is making a run at Iran (to which you can add Gaza, West Bank, Houthis, Hezbollah, Lebanon) now not because he thinks Israel can somehow defeat Iran on their own....he is making a run at Iran as the 2020's may the last decade where an Israeli Prime Minister could count on unequivocal US support for any action.....this IMO is leading to reckless decision making by Bibi and his war cabinet to which you can layer on his own legal problems waiting for him if/when he leaves office.

 

So putting aside discrete US interests.....it is not IMO in the interest of Israel to pursue escalation so aggressively with Iran .....Bibi's everything all at once approach here is a go for broke strategy that could get Israel wrecked in the process (while I admit that like in every situation it has a probability of working out magically for Israel where with US help Israel could see Iran hobbled for decades and the regime in Tehran overthrown).....so I dont discount that at all (would love to see it in fact in a perfect world but the world isnt perfect, your enemy fights back, unexpected things happen).....but probabilistically when I weigh things up...... most especially after seeing Iranian ballistic missile capabilities during the 12-day war (read: the Iron Dome is not invincible) I think Bibi (genius though he is) has misjudged this one. So you know I know folks love to put people in boxes these days....anti-Israel, TDS.....its a lazy out to avoid cognitive dissonance to closely held views.....though I will admit that I do see TDS on the left the whole time so it is a real phenomenon.

Congrats on having spent time in Israel (really!).  You therefore understand what Israel has been up against for its entire existence.  There has never been a better time in history for Bibi and Israel to pursue peace through strength.  Cubs is correct; expansion of The Abraham Accords is exactly what Iran is fighting against which is precisely why it needs to happen.  Not only for the benefit of Israel but for the benefit of its Arab neighbors.  Peace won't come easy and there is no assurance it will ever happen.  But the opportunity is now and Bibi is in the right place at the right time with Trump as his friend and ally.  You want to measure things like deficits and costs.  They are meaningless when you consider how much 77 years worth of constantly defending itself against all of its surrounding neighbors has cost Israel - both in terms of dollar costs and perhaps even more importantly, opportunity costs.   If the US was under constant attack from Mexico and Canada, my guess is you would have a different view on how our Country would need to address the issue.  The overriding majority of Americans would support eliminating the threat.  Its as simple as that.

[Spekulatius]

8 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

And so has Israel hence why the United States is so intertwined now in the conflict....the 12 day war showed that in a toe-to-toe conflict with Iran....Israel is actually incapable of defending itself from Iran over a long period of time without serious military intervention from the United States........read the reports from Haaretz....Iran did huge damage to Israel and shut the country down for two weeks......you have some naive asymmetric view of a war between Israel vs. Iran...that it would somehow be a cakewalk because Israel is so strong and Iran is so weak....its just not the case....

 

Israel was days away from running out of interceptor missiles for their iron dome before the cease fire.....the lazy analysis is Iran needed the ceasefire.....the reality is they both needed the ceasefire Israel as much as Iran....the reality as Bibi knows well and why he's been to the White House three times in six months now is that Israel isnt as strong as you think it is....it is totally dependent on the United States in an escalatory war with Iran.....the narrative around Israel, the invincible, is a dangerous one because in reality what your really articulating is a combined 'Israel + the USA'....which entails huge military commitments on our part and something that starts to look like America's next forever war.

 

The damage is nothing compared to what they have received though. No question is that Iran is weakened., but I think the nuclear program is till intact despite the damage record. Now know does not go away. So, are they now more inclined to pursue the bomb than before? I think so. There is a pretty good podcast on this in Hidden forces . Something to think about wether your agree on all points or not:

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/hidden-forces/id1205359334?i=1000715571252

 

When has humiliating an opponent without essentially  defeating them entirely been a good idea in the past?

45 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

Which terrorist groups is N. Korea openly arming?  What countries is N. Korea vowing "Death to ....?"  Since when in the last 70 years is South Korea routinely bombed from the North and its citizens murdered, raped and pillaged?  How many S. Koreans have been killed by its neighbors to the north since the end of the Korean War?  Show us the tunnels from North Korea or its proxies to sites elsewhere that are used for death and destruction.  While you're at it, point to the schools, hospitals and residences where North Korea stockpiles its military equipment.  And educate us with the relevant portions of North Korea's charter that seeks punishment for those who defy given religious beliefs.      

They are arming Russia and are essentially sending their army there. Russia is more dangerous than any terrorist group I can think off.

Edited July 14, 2025 by Spekulatius

[cubsfan]

3 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

When has humiliating an opponent without essentially  defeating them entirely been a good idea in the past?

 

Humiliating Iran has an enormous impact on their image in the world.

And they care deeply about their image.

 

It showed EVERYONE that Iran is a paper tiger and led by blowhards that can not defend their own nation. So much for the invincible Persian Empire, when a country with 10% of their own population can destroy their nuclear program and military without so much as a scratch to the forces attacking them.

 

NO ONE will side with Iran now - as they now know the same fate will await them as the Houtis, Hezbollah, Hamas and Assad have all found out. 

 

Side with Iran - and you will destroy yourself.

 

The message is out now - and Iran can't do a damn thing about it.

[LC]

I agree with @Spekulatius

 

My take is Israel acted in its own interests but at the expense of the civilized world. 

 

And there was probably some quid-pro-quo with Trump to buy America's support - something we (the USA) will pay for but he individually (Trump) will gain from. 

 

The whole "the world is safer today than yesterday" is short-sighted type 1 thinking. 

[cubsfan]

Iran's dream since the Ayatollah took over , was to dominate the Middle East by restoring the Persian Empire. But even with 4 proxies as allies, they can't even defeat a pip-squeak nation like Israel.

 

Iran is the Keystone cops and the world knows it. 50 years of massive investment to terrify their neighbors down the drain.

 

The Turks, Saudis and Egyptians are laughing their asses off.

[changegonnacome]

39 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

pursue the bomb than before? I think so

 

For sure.....and so this whole thing has a kind of inevitability to it.....Trump's international relations naivety has been on show for the last six months as he thought Putin was his friend......the greatest naivety of all will be that he thought the B-2 operation a few weeks ago was some kind of one and done deal.....far from it.....a bit like you I'm convinced its set of a chain of events that will draw the US deeper and deeper into the Iran-Israel big muddy.

 

Will give that podcast a listen. Thanks.

 

Edited July 14, 2025 by changegonnacome
.

[changegonnacome]

21 minutes ago, LC said:

The whole "the world is safer today than yesterday" is short-sighted type 1 thinking. 

 

+1....things just got exponentially more dangerous.......the JCPOA had Iran's military nuclear capability "on ice"....JCPAO v2.0 was the answer here.........suspect now they will race towards a bomb.........the options to stop them are all horrible and where success (actually stopping them getting the bomb) is uncertain. This is not good risk management from Trump......as President events will throw enough sand in the gears of your agenda and what your trying to achieve........self-generating 'events' & crisis that can derail your administration goals are a mortal sin in Presidential politics.....Trump just self-generated a massive headache for his administration in the Middle East....I wish him luck with it, its going to be beauty.

 

Edited July 14, 2025 by changegonnacome

[Spekulatius]

More tariffs. 17% tariffs for Mexican tomatoes. Agricultural goods were covered by USMC agreement so the statement that the 30% tariffs only  applies to non USMC goods gets wonky here.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-imposes-17-duty-fresh-210632322.html

 

The country tariffs are just a baseline anyway, Trump has rolled out tariffs for Steel, Aluminum and now copper (50%), cars & trucks (25%), potash, energy (10%) and those are in addition to country tariffs , I think. We probably get some tariffs on pharmaceutical products as well (likely not the 200% the mentioned though).

 

Sort of tough to negotiate when one side thinks they have an override.

[RichardGibbons]

3 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

Which terrorist groups is N. Korea openly arming?  What countries is N. Korea vowing "Death to ....?"  Since when in the last 70 years is South Korea routinely bombed from the North and its citizens murdered, raped and pillaged?  How many S. Koreans have been killed by its neighbors to the north since the end of the Korean War?  Show us the tunnels from North Korea or its proxies to sites elsewhere that are used for death and destruction.  While you're at it, point to the schools, hospitals and residences where North Korea stockpiles its military equipment.  And educate us with the relevant portions of North Korea's charter that seeks punishment for those who defy given religious beliefs.      

 

Ah, I think I understand. For you, there's a big difference between a country killing its own citizens, and one that kills others, plus the religious aspect.

 

Thanks for the clarification. I get where you're coming from now, and understand the reasoning.

[Marco Van Basten]

5 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Cash money $20bn......military equipment of value deemed surplus to requirements cant remember the technical terms is in the billions......humatiriann aid for Gaza and various NGOs required to keep the people alive there as the Gaza strip is demolished by Israel runs to billions......then all the operational costs of moving tankers and military equipment to the ME.....the costs of putting an iron dome over Israel's Iron dome is potentially hundreds of millions during the two big missile attack episodes.

 

If you find a figure which encapsulates it all Id be interested to hear it - but its significant when you think about the cuts to say medicaid that we're in the BBB to save $800bn over 10yrs and that they just had to be done cause we dont have the money here in the US. American first was about prioritizing American's over foreigners.....in this instance I find myself uncomfortably aligned with Tucker Carlson and Steve Bannon. 

 

The real cost however I consider to be is the loss of focus on East Asia inherent in getting bogged down in the Middle East & Ukraine for that matter.

 

 

Why should we provide humanitarian aid to Gaza?  We cannot afford to feed the entire world, particularly people who hate us.  Gaza's population doubles every decade or two.  What they need is condoms, not food.  

[LC]

LOL what a POS:

 

Trump Kept Gold Club World Cup Trophy for Himself So FIFA Had to Give the Winners a Replica

https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-kept-gold-club-world-cup-trophy-for-himself-so-fifa-had-to-give-the-winners-a-replica/

[Xerxes]

Carney personal investment has been disclosed

 

[73 Reds]

11 hours ago, Marco Van Basten said:

Why should we provide humanitarian aid to Gaza?  We cannot afford to feed the entire world, particularly people who hate us.  Gaza's population doubles every decade or two.  What they need is condoms, not food.  

That is the operative question.  We shouldn't be helping anyone who grossly misallocates the aid provided.  Nor should we be be making deals with any countries who vow to destroy us but can't.  

Edited July 15, 2025 by 73 Reds
word

[changegonnacome]

On 7/11/2025 at 9:15 PM, changegonnacome said:

IMO the rush to get all this stuff done before August........is that preliminary inflation data containing the tariff hit is starting to creep into the data the Trump team likely has a preview on.......we can revisit my thesis after September/October print......but I think we are going to be getting some annualized 3%+ months coming up in late Q3 and into Q4.....as well as all the anecdotal reports of small businesses going to the wall & shoppers getting sticker shock.

 

"US inflation reaches 2.7% as Trump tariffs hit.

 

Unexpectedly sharp June rise signals US president’s levies are pushing up consumer prices"

 

- https://www.ft.com/content/65b1fb44-6391-4f74-82db-2d7eb6aaafa9

 

One swallow does not make a summer.....but actions have consequences.......the EU and Canada if the deals on offer currently are too exploitative.......would be wise to sit tight and let the monthly inflation prints deteriorate into Q4 (which seems inevitable)....the pressure on the Trump admin to wrap things up will only increase as the inflation data detoritates and the mid-terms come into focus.

[John Hjorth]

Please say Hello to the likely most influential woman in International Politics on the planet by now :

 

[LC]

She sort of reminds me of Gollum in this picture with her and Trump's BFFs:

 

 

[cubsfan]

On 7/14/2025 at 5:30 PM, changegonnacome said:

 

+1....things just got exponentially more dangerous.......the JCPOA had Iran's military nuclear capability "on ice"....JCPAO v2.0 was the answer here.........suspect now they will race towards a bomb.........the options to stop them are all horrible and where success (actually stopping them getting the bomb) is uncertain. This is not good risk management from Trump......as President events will throw enough sand in the gears of your agenda and what your trying to achieve........self-generating 'events' & crisis that can derail your administration goals are a mortal sin in Presidential politics.....Trump just self-generated a massive headache for his administration in the Middle East....I wish him luck with it, its going to be beauty.

 

 

Things just got exponentially more dangerous for Iran, not the United States.

 

The demented theocracy and military leaders just proved they can't protect their military assets, nuclear assets or their own people. Israel or the US can strike them at will. Let them restart their nuclear program.

 

What will be the result of a restart?  Will Israel kill another dozen of their top nuclear scientists?  Will they kill another 30 of their top military commanders?  Will they kill them in 2 weeks time, with not a single lost airman, plane or soldier - since they can not defend themselves?

 

Who will come running to Iran's defense?  Will the defeated & demoralized proxies rise up against Israel when they know Iran can not defend them from obliteration?

Will the Russians, bogged down by a war that threatens to take down the country come to their aid? What about the Chinese - where were they in the defense of Iran?  The Turks?  The Sunnis?

 

Iran has no friends in the world - and their proxies suffered hellacious destruction fighting JUST Israel.

 

Do you acknowledge that both NATO and the Middle East (less Iranian proxies) are secretly delighted that this worldwide terror nation has suffered such a devastating humiliation - ridding them of a persistent problem of the last 50 years?

 

Trump doesn't need any luck - the very hated and despised Ayatollah needs a lot of luck if he is going to survive this disaster.

[changegonnacome]

6 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Who will come running to Iran's defense?

 

Nukes will

[Spekulatius]

Fed up with the Fed. Could get interesting.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-suggests-fed-renovations-could-235413236.html

 

I think the long end of the yield curve could see some action.

[dwy000]

35 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Fed up with the Fed. Could get interesting.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-suggests-fed-renovations-could-235413236.html

 

I think the long end of the yield curve could see some action.

When tanking the bond and stock markets becomes the preferred route to divert from the Epstein files you know he's guilty as hell.