Political Posts

[UK]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-ambassador-says-us-plans-give-ukraine-carte-blanche-weapons-2024-08-23/

 

"I tell you sincerely that the president has made a decision," the TASS state news agency quoted Antonov as saying late on Thursday. "I am firmly convinced that everyone will be severely punished for what has happened in Kursk region." The comments by Antonov, who did not provide further details on Putin's plans, came after the Kremlin leader held a meeting on Thursday with senior officials, including the governors of border regions, over two weeks after Ukraine launched its lightning attack, the biggest incursion into Russia by a foreign power since World War Two.

 

Edited August 23, 2024 by UK

[forest81]

Many Thanks

[ValueArb]

18 hours ago, Luke said:

Russian friends of mine are back home in the summer, difficult to get there. Back then flight from Germany was 2hours, now its an around-the-world trip...told me the war isn't much of a topic in Moscow/Petersburg, a lot less than it is a topic in the west/germany at least. I went through the estimated death count numbers yesterday evening and can only react in shock, so many lives lost for what? Ukraine made 0 progress at the main target regions, invading Russia now is an interesting tactic to get extra negotiating power but does some really see here how they can get the eastern regions back? And even if they would temporarily be able to hold them, do we think Russia would stop? 

 

Russia does not seem completely unwilling to negotiate something and Putin is not completely irrational. Was it worth to sacrifice hundreds of thousands of men to get nowhere? Is not surrendering the Donbas worth 100k Ukrainians? Would the Ukrainians have lived if there would have been an immediate cease-fire and a deal that's not great but the best one can get? 

 

Harald Kujat quoted this recently on TV: 

 

By Theodor Storm: 

 

1  One asks what comes next,

2  The other only asks, is it right.

3  And this is the difference

4  between the free man and the slave.

 

1	Der eine fragt, was kommt danach,
2	Der andere fragt nur, ist es recht.
3	Und also unterscheidet sich
4	Der Freie von dem Knecht

 

Those who trade freedom for temporary security will soon find they have neither.

[John Hjorth]

48 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

 

Those who trade freedom for temporary security will soon find they have neither.

 

In many cases and under certain circumstances, this unfortunately and eventually ends up as being the truth. Security and freedom are two separate elements of the concept of independence.

Edited August 23, 2024 by John Hjorth

[Xerxes]

19 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Indeed - the under appreciated issue with nuclear proliferation.....is a regional despot undergoing regime collapse used to be a local regional phenomenon that we, in the West, kind of cheered on from afar watching on TV.....situations like the one with Russia have a much fatter tail risk now.....morons ignore the tail & advocate for escalation dominance at all junctures like it's the 1920's or something.....cause they haven't quite calibrated their risk management framework to take account of the new tails.

There has been a certain element of the Western security establishment that have always been eager to collapse’ Russian territorial integrity, at any cost. It is a personal accomplishment for them, if they could pull it off. 
 

Goes back to the days Disraeli, maybe Gladstone, the Great Game, the Crimean War etc.

 

Only the rise of Prussia, put those Western aspirations on hold …. For a while 

[John Hjorth]

19 hours ago, Luke said:

... Was it worth to sacrifice hundreds of thousands of men to get nowhere? Is not surrendering the Donbas worth 100k Ukrainians? ...

 

@Luke,

 

What did you get to of loss numbers for Ukraine and Russia, respectively? Please share with sources [, how horrible a read for all us here on CoBF it might be, eventually].

 

Thank you in advance.

[cubsfan]

@John Hjorth  John - you might find this discussion interesting re: casualties. Personally, I don't know - but much of this makes sense to me. Given that Russia has likely a 5:1 ratio in artillery and that Russia has air superiority and manpower superiority - this tries to estimate casualty ratio. Most modern wars attribute 80% of casualties to artillery & bombing.

 

Now this clip was censored/removed from YouTube, as it may not be a popular view.

 

https://rumble.com/v5b37dh-judgingfreedom.html

 

If you start at the 5:40 minute mark and go to 14:00 minute - that should do it.

 

Just an FYI

[John Hjorth]

To start another angle to what's  going on in Ukraine and simultainly discussed in this topic :

 

How would you react to [hypotchetical] an Ukrainian citizen registering here on CoBF and posting :

 

'This is really not matter for you to decide on, What's going to happen with and to the citizens of the occupied regions of Ukraniene should be let to decide by it people.'

 

 

[Luke]

3 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

 

@Luke,

 

What did you get to of loss numbers for Ukraine and Russia, respectively? Please share with sources [, how horrible a read for all us here on CoBF it might be, eventually].

 

Thank you in advance.

Easily goes into mid hundred thousands with many more wounded and traumatized. 

[John Hjorth]

No posts today really commenting on what's at the core, for building an Ukraine for the future :

 

The Ukranie people and population [in the by Russia occupied areas and regions] is for it self, to decide its future! [If you really disagree about that, please post about it specifically in this topic!]

 

That part of the Ukranian population in the by Russia occupied areas isen't some kind of 'live stock', available as a bargain or leverage for whoever may want to rule.

 

The very hort version of it : *MIAWIU* ['I'm my own', 'I own my self']

Edited August 25, 2024 by John Hjorth

[Xerxes]

John 

I don’t have anything intelligent as answer on your question other than pointing out that there is also a significant ethnic Russian population in Crimea and that they are also not “livestock”. 
 

The question has to go to both ethnic side of former and current Ukrainian citizens in the occupied territories. 

[John Hjorth]

On 8/23/2024 at 9:03 PM, Xerxes said:

John 

I don’t have anything intelligent as answer on your question other than pointing out that there is also a significant ethnic Russian population in Crimea and that they are also not “livestock”. 
 

The question has to go to both ethnic side of former and current Ukrainian citizens in the occupied territories. 

 

Thanks, @Xerxes ,

 

I [naturally] agree on your nuances of changes to my own statement, as posted by you above.

Edited August 25, 2024 by John Hjorth

[John Hjorth]

20 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

John 

I don’t have anything intelligent as answer on your question other than pointing out that there is also a significant ethnic Russian population in Crimea and that they are also not “livestock”. 
 

The question has to go to both ethnic side of former and current Ukrainian citizens in the occupied territories. 

 

In fact it does not appear to be so complicated, by now solved by a similar democratic process, by  now more than  a hundred years ago in the Northern Europe :

 

Wikipedia : 1920 Schleswig plebiscites [<- If one think carefullly about it, how difficult is this ? ]

 

Where there is will, there is a way.  [Cons are called at their bluffs, and all other kinds of *BS* - commit, or not. -Period. -Always works.]

Edited August 23, 2024 by John Hjorth

[Luke]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

The Ukranie people and population [in the by Russia occupied areas and regions] is for it self, to decide its future! [If you really disagree about that, please post about it specifically in this topic!]

 

That part of the Ukranian population in the by Russia occupied areas isen't some kind of 'live stock', available as a bargain or leverage for whoever may want to rule.

Well, its for western countries to discuss because they receive billions of dollars and military support by them. If that stops they are free to do whatever they want of course. 

[changegonnacome]

3 hours ago, Xerxes said:

There has been a certain element of the Western security establishment that have always been eager to collapse’ Russian territorial integrity, at any cost. It is a personal accomplishment for them, if they could pull it off. 
 

Goes back to the days Disraeli, maybe Gladstone, the Great Game, the Crimean War etc.

 

Sure - I mean the oldest defense is to have a good offense.....when Europe isn't fighting amongst itself......the Red mist becomes the boogie man to worry about.

 

The post-1994 dream might have seen the EEA, if not the EU expand Eastward to econcompass both Ukraine & Russia.......Europe's lack of energy (but industrial knowhow) and Russia's energy riches are natural bedfellows...they could and should be best of friends...like the USA and Canada are....but they aren't.

 

I know many on this thread can't quite believe that the US would be so viciously pragmatic in its overseas defense strategy.....but a strategy of keeping Western Europe & Russia apart which IMO has underpinned the post-Cold War era.....is an important and ultimately clever case of divide and co-opt.....a combined EU-Russia has hell of alot of things going for it as an economic & regional powerhouse.......and an economic powerhouses are but a step away (as we see with China) from being another type of powerhouse that global superpower might worry about.......the big problem for the US is they've scored a HUGE own goal by over-egging this strategy.

 

The greatest tragedy yet to be realized coming out of the Ukrainian situation is by pushing Russia so firmly into China's grip.... we've effectively handed resource deficient China direct access to enough oil and natural gas for a thousand years. The billions we've sent to Ukraine in aid....is not the true cost of this war........the true cost is making China & Russia two peas in a pod.....not today.....but we'll rue that outcome in years to come.

[Luke]

2 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Sure - I mean the oldest defense is to have a good offense.....when Europe isn't fighting amongst itself......the Red mist becomes the boogie man to worry about.

 

The post-1994 dream might have seen the EEA, if not the EU expand Eastward to econcompass both Ukraine & Russia.......Europe's lack of energy (but industrial knowhow) and Russia's energy riches are natural bedfellows...they could and should be best of friends...like the USA and Canada are....but they aren't.

 

I know many on this thread can't quite believe that the US would be so viciously pragmatic in its overseas defense strategy.....but a strategy of keeping Western Europe & Russia apart which IMO has underpinned the post-Cold War era.....is an important and ultimately clever case of divide and co-opt.....a combined EU-Russia has hell of alot of things going for it as an economic & regional powerhouse.......and an economic powerhouses are but a step away (as we see with China) from being another type of powerhouse that global superpower might worry about.......the big problem for the US is they've scored a HUGE own goal by over-egging this strategy.

 

The greatest tragedy yet to be realized coming out of the Ukrainian situation is by pushing Russia so firmly into China's grip.... we've effectively handed resource deficient China direct access to enough oil and natural gas for a thousand years. The billions we've sent to Ukraine in aid....is not the true cost of this war........the true cost is making China & Russia two peas in a pod.....not today.....but we'll rue that outcome in years to come.

NOW the Nr.1 "enemy" of the US has Russia as a friend, building happy pipelines and sending boatloads of resources for the manufacturing powerhouse China...loss for Europe, win for China, even more problematic situation for the US as you well said...

 

Disaster economically for Europe.  

[Luke]

The countries that will have a geopolitical impact will be the countries that have the greatest wealth and technology creation. Europe is essentially now a corpse feeding off of legacy industrial businesses. It's really unfortunate. Especially the climate change targets and Russia cut-off will be the end off their competitiveness for a long long time. Id bet on the US and China doing well over time even with all the fear mongering. There will be a lot more growth in China than in the US...and valuations are cheaper too...time will tell...

[Luke]

Is that why they fight so hard about ukraine too? Large coal reserves, natural gas, other minerals, lithium etc? 

 

 

Edited August 23, 2024 by Luke

[Xerxes]

Pretty good. 
Sam B. is always a good listen. 

 

https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/russian-roulette/id1112258664?i=1000666396079

 

[cubsfan]

20 minutes ago, Luke said:

The countries that will have a geopolitical impact will be the countries that have the greatest wealth and technology creation. Europe is essentially now a corpse feeding off of legacy industrial businesses. It's really unfortunate. Especially the climate change targets and Russia cut-off will be the end off their competitiveness for a long long time. Id bet on the US and China doing well over time even with all the fear mongering. There will be a lot more growth in China than in the US...and valuations are cheaper too...time will tell...

 

Tough to say. Most of the innovation happens in the US. With a new President we may see a resurgence in economic leadership. But to your point about China growth - they are really very good at stealing technology and patents - so have to give them that. Valuations in China will stay cheap until President Xi stops scaring off international investors. 

[UK]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ukrinform.net/amp/rubric-ato/3898338-zelensky-no-sick-old-man-from-red-square-will-dictate-any-of-his-red-lines-to-ukraine-and-the-ukrainians.html

 

"The sick old man from Red Square, who constantly threatens everyone with a red button, will not dictate any of his red lines to us. How we live, which path we take, and what choices we make will be determined only by Ukraine and Ukrainians. That is how independence works," Zelenskyy said.

Zelenskyy recorded a video address from the Sumy region, near the Psel River a few kilometers from the border with Russia. "The border between an independent European state and the number-one terrorist organization in the world. 913 days ago, Russia launched a war against us, including through the Sumy region. It violated not only sovereign borders but also the limits of cruelty and common sense. Its endless goal was one thing: to destroy us. Today, however, we are celebrating Ukraine's 33rd Independence Day. What the enemy brought to our land has now returned to its own home. And those who wanted to turn our lands into a buffer zone must now consider that their country might become a buffer federation," the President said. “Ukrainians always return their debts. And the one who wished a disaster on our land will see it at own home, with interest added. Whoever wants to sow evil on our land will reap its fruits on own territory," Zelensky went on to say.

 

Lannisters always pays their debts:)

 

Edited August 24, 2024 by UK

[changegonnacome]

25 minutes ago, UK said:

"what choices we make will be determined only by Ukraine and Ukrainians. That is how independence works,"

 

In one sentence - Zelensky kind of sums up how he contributed to getting his country into the desperate situation its in today...and it seems like the cause is his complete lack of pragmatism...the above is a nice sound bite..........but the reality is that independence & sovereignty.....are ideals that once they leap off the page are constrained by reality & realpolitik.....Ukraine is independent...in the same way that Canada is independent & free.....but like Ukraine, Canadian sovereignty is constrained by its geographic position & power dynamics of its neighbour.........for example......Canada is technically free to host Chinese military bases in Ottawa if it wishes.....in reality that can never happen....or it can happen but only temporarily....which is kind of the same thing.

 

Zelensky's extreme pivot to the West and outright rejection of the East....was a terribly poor demonstration of political leadership....pragmatism might be the single most important quality in a political leader.......idealism will get thousands of your fellow countrymen killed.

 

As we get further into this war.....with Russia making recent territorial gains into the Donbass.......while Ukraine drives tanks around empty fields a few hundred miles north in Kursk.......I hope we in the West help Zelensky with his pragmatism skills.......a small country sandwiched between two opposing political/military systems....should be eating pragmatism for breakfast, lunch and dinner.

[UK]

1 hour ago, changegonnacome said:

 

In one sentence - Zelensky kind of sums up how he contributed to getting his country into the desperate situation its in today...and it seems like the cause is his complete lack of pragmatism...the above is a nice sound bite..........but the reality is that independence & sovereignty.....are ideals that once they leap off the page are constrained by reality & realpolitik.....Ukraine is independent...in the same way that Canada is independent & free.....but like Ukraine, Canadian sovereignty is constrained by its geographic position & power dynamics of its neighbour.........for example......Canada is technically free to host Chinese military bases in Ottawa if it wishes.....in reality that can never happen....or it can happen but only temporarily....which is kind of the same thing.

 

Zelensky's extreme pivot to the West and outright rejection of the East....was a terribly poor demonstration of political leadership....pragmatism might be the single most important quality in a political leader.......idealism will get thousands of your fellow countrymen killed.

 

As we get further into this war.....with Russia making recent territorial gains into the Donbass.......while Ukraine drives tanks around empty fields a few hundred miles north in Kursk.......I hope we in the West help Zelensky with his pragmatism skills.......a small country sandwiched between two opposing political/military systems....should be eating pragmatism for breakfast, lunch and dinner.

 

I posted this because this sounded good...and right. Look, I get all this realpolitik talk, but I also lived through the something very simillar in my own country. All world, from Nelson Mandela to who not, were lecturing us and warning not to mess with USSR for our own and greater good. Of course one can say that we just got lucky. As we did. But you also do not have a chance of luck, without even trying. Shorter version: my mind is much closer to your position, but this is not a place my heart is:)

[John Hjorth]

On 8/20/2024 at 2:53 AM, ValueArb said:

...  The day some actual pipeline experts detail why the maintenance failure theory can't be true I'll happily abandon it. ..

 

@ValueArb,

 

The colunm leader I posted and translated earlier and upstream in this topic for the readers here on CoBF [likely written by JP editor in chief Marchen Geertsen], was for informational purposes, describing a public sentiment here in a Northern European country, very precisely describing a public sentiment in an open democracy, about the elected people with polical power and responsibilities are withholding material information about the truth from their constituents, which is from a democratic and constitutional point of view is more than problematic [,also meaning : What I posted wasen't an expression of my own opinion.].

 

With regard to the above quoted line of yours, you just have to remember, recall and look up the photos taken of the damages to the pipelines, taken after the damages happened. 

 

The photos back then indicated clearly that this was about explosions from outside the tubes, direction inbound tubes to destruct pipeline integrity, not the other direction.

Edited August 24, 2024 by John Hjorth

[John Hjorth]

16 hours ago, Luke said:

Is that why they fight so hard about ukraine too? Large coal reserves, natural gas, other minerals, lithium etc? 

 

@Luke,

 

What is left of Ukraine, if every structure above ground is demolished to rubble by warfare? :

 

- Enormous areas of fertile and productive agricultural land. It's called the grain chamber of Europe.

 

Just for reference, the economic value of agricultural land in Denmark is approx. ~DKK 200,000 [on avarage] per hectare. [One hectare is 10,000 m², equals 100 m x 100 m area]

Edited August 24, 2024 by John Hjorth
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