Political Posts

[cubsfan]

^^^^ The reason South Korea and Japan are economic miracles is because they were obliterated and totally rebuilt under the United States. Capitalism, control and funding by the USA created a rocket ship along with extremely hardworking nationalists. Same can be said for West Germany. So many other countries left in the dust.

[Xerxes]

23 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

^^^^ The reason South Korea and Japan are economic miracles is because they were obliterated and totally rebuilt under the United States. Capitalism, control and funding by the USA created a rocket ship along with extremely hardworking nationalists. Same can be said for West Germany. So many other countries left in the dust.

We are not talking about the Marshall Plan and the rebuilding of Japan. 
 

Taiwan was also an economic miracle (and so was Singapore) and they nothing to do with U.S. funding and rebuilding and such. Same for Korea. 

[cubsfan]

^^^ Not sure I get it @Xerxes. Indeed the rebuild of Korea was funded by the USA.

 

what am I missing?

[Xerxes]

It might be me missing something. Was not aware that Korea rebuilt was funded by U.S.  post-WW2.
 

That explains the ever-presence of 2nd infantry division there for decades now, to keep an eye on investment. 

[cubsfan]

^^ yeah. Japan received nothing from the Marshall Plan. It was USA only.

 

At one point, South Korea’s GDP was 80% USA aid - it was at an very high level until the mid 70’s. Corruption was off the charts, so the USA became more hands on..to get the economic miracle to work.

 

But back to you thesis…

 

The rebuild of Ukraine is gonna hurt like hell and be off the charts expensive - if we ever get there.

 

The corruption might be worse than South Korea - knowing the Ukrainians..

 

[Xerxes]

Understood. Thanks. 

 

On aid to Ukraine, I guess we will see.
 

Japan and Germany were truly unique. The same “command and control” culture that got them into a world war, and the fact that they were subjugated (I.e. unconditional surrender) helped them re-jig their economy and reboot just as the doctor ordered.
 

Korea was an interesting case. Most of the heavy industries that supported the Japanese war machine in the 30s and 40s was located in the northern side of peninsula. So after the second war, the Reds were well endowed when compared to the southern portion of peninsula. That means the U.S. funding that you have alluded to had them going from a much lower base ! So there was a “catch up part to North” to it as well 

 

[Spekulatius]

The economic miracle in Korea started in the mod 60's really but the average grunts slaving away for minimum wages did see little of the wealth that was created. The wealth went to the chaebols Samsung, Hyundai, LG, Lotte who grew in leaps and bounds with exports, based on their cost advantage (low wages). It took until the late 70's until the wealth created started to benefit the average person.

 

These Chaebols are in a way similar to the Oligarch in Russia but I think the chances that the average Russian sees benefit from the system eventually are slim to none.

 

 

[Spekulatius]

Insane footage of close up trench warfare. I count 4 Russian killed in a few minutes. Looks exactly like WW1:

 

Edited April 20, 2023 by Spekulatius

[Castanza]

It is still mind boggling to me that the West is not collectively pushing for peace negotiations. 
 

the US and the West can’t continue to get in nuclear standoffs over every single border dispute for countries who’s borders have been ever changing over the last 75 years. 
 

Zoom out and think about this war and the position of the West from a 30,000  foot view with a humanity based perspective. 
 

There were individuals who fought in the US Civil War that lived long enough to see the testing of Ivy Mike in the Pacific. If you put the Civil War on the event timeline of human history you can basically conclude that it was almost a nuclear war. We got lucky by a factor of nothing on the timeline of human history. The difference between muskets or atomic bombs being used was a blink of an eye on the timescale. 
 

The US and the West should be doing everything in their power to prevent standoffs like this now and in the future. It’s a fools errand and luck will eventually run out. 

[mcliu]

On 4/15/2023 at 11:02 PM, cubsfan said:

I can’t argue with what you just said. The death and decline of the US will come from within.

 

Just like the Roman Empire 

It's not too late for the West because there's such a head start, but we need to stop focusing on frivolous/fringe issues and wars and start fixing the core like addiction/healthcare, education, infrastructure.

 

6 hours ago, Castanza said:

It is still mind boggling to me that the West is not collectively pushing for peace negotiations. 

Totally agree. Nuclear war is THE biggest threat to humanity and this whole proxy war is pushing us closer. The US needs to stop all its wasteful foreign adventures and start fixing domestic problems. Vietnam, then Afghanistan & Iraq were a colossal waste of resources. Is it really a coincidence that shortly after you exit Afghanistan the Ukraine war starts? Or is the military-industrial-political complex pulling strings to create the next conflict?

[RichardGibbons]

8 hours ago, Castanza said:

It is still mind boggling to me that the West is not collectively pushing for peace negotiations. 

 

[Xerxes]

Ahhhh the bogeyman is being invoked again. The “veto” that ends all discussion. 

I hope you guys do realize that there had to be a Munich and a Chamberlain so that there could be a Churchill and with it a strategic shift. 
 

Prey tell what would have happened if Chamberlain had done the reverse at Munich. Two scenarios: 

 

- Hitler’ bluff would have been called. But war would have postponed, but only delayed to another catalyst. Possibly the very same 1939. But now Chamberlain would have been a much stronger political position in London. After all he resisted Hitler but war was inevitable. Leaving no venue for Churchill to be the anti-Chamberlain. 
 

- War would have started then (earlier) vs. then it did in 1939. But same as above Hitler would be facing a politically strong Chamberlain. The lion.  
 

We needed to have Chamberlain so that we could have Churchill, the anti-thesis. If not the powers be would have concluded perhaps confrontation with Hitler is not the right way. We tried that and it didn’t work. 
 

 

Edit: greetings from Tokyo

 

 

 

Edited April 23, 2023 by Xerxes

[Xerxes]

To add further:

 

Despite all that is being said, West ever desire is the dismantling of the Slavic super-state. That temptation and urge comes and goes. But it is always there since the dawn of Peter the Great. 

[Castanza]

Why does everyone have such a hard-on for WWII comparisons or more accurately Hitler comparisons? It’s not even in the same league at this point. 
 

Ukraine is not Czechoslovakia and Putin is not Hitler. You’re comparing apples or oranges and a t-ball player to a Major Leaguer. I swear it’s like the pro war people want Putin to push that button. People here in the US are so sheltered from war. 
 

Let’s do a nationwide poll:

 

1. Do you support the war in Ukraine 

2. Do you support US troops in Ukraine? 
 

If you’ve answered YES to 1 but not 2, congratulations you just entered the draft. 
 

If you answered YES to 1 & 2 congratulations you ship out for basic training in two weeks. 

[John Hjorth]

@Castanza,

 

I seldom participate in this topic, because of all its political angles, which none of us can effectively separate from the calamity as such.

 

I understand, and respect, your personal position here, as expressed above. Reading what you posted actually makes some kind of sense for me as an European citizen in the now not so cold north [spring is here Denmark, with lots of sun today, outside we are at 14^o C - life is great!]. I'm here trying my best to express myself, putting myself in your shoes.

 

If NATO does not cooperate internally on this matter, it should be decommisioned. Period.

 

I know a lot countries being NATO members and not contributing suffiently financially according the agreements.. Mr. Trump was right on that. Denmark is actually one of them. To me, it's a disgrace, and soo embarassing. It will change relatively fast, gradually over the coming few years here. [Read : Higher income taxes for Danes - there is no other Danish method for tackling the issue at hand.] The Danish political sentiment is changing fast on that matter, also in the Danish population as such.

 

There is nothing worse than an invalid, in reality non-existing musceteer oath, that does not keep up and hold water. There is nothing in life as being scolded by someone, that you have considered being your fairly close friend and ally, and that you relied on. You will never forget the experinece, if happens to you. But right now we Danes are behind on keeping the right balance in the relationship, we will get there, eventually, to get order in our own house.

Edited April 23, 2023 by John Hjorth

[cubsfan]

^^ Respectfully, I think you omitted Option 3 - which is , support the war with massive aid, let the Europeans continue their defense of Europe with their people. Russia cannot win against an allied USA & Europe. Then this becomes a model for Europe- and the Russians have a powerful deterrent that they finally understand. 
 

The message also gets sent to China.

 

There is value in a lasting peace in Europe, such as we had since the end of WWII. It’s unfortunate that Obama and a weak Germany and France chose to let Putin go so far.

[Spekulatius]

I would also like to know how any outcome in the Ukraine war is going to negate the nuclear threat. If Putin, wins, gets a draw or loses the war - he still has his nuclear weapons and can make threats or pull the trigger any time he likes. If anything, if he wins or sees his threats going to have an impact on what the west is doing, it will lead to more threats.

 

On a more interesting note, there seems to be some significant  recon activity going on around Kherson where Ukrainian troops have established footholds eastern banks of the Dnipro river. Whether that means anything in terms of the expected spring offensive remains to be seen.

 

Edited April 23, 2023 by Spekulatius

[John Hjorth]

19 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

^^ Respectfully, I think you omitted Option 3 - which is , support the war with massive aid, let the Europeans continue their defense of Europe with their people. Russia cannot win against an allied USA & Europe. Then this becomes a model for Europe- and the Russians have a powerful deterrent that they finally understand. 
 

The message also gets sent to China.

 

There is value in a lasting peace in Europe, such as we had since the end of WWII. It’s unfortunate that Obama and a weak Germany and France chose to let Putin go so far.

 

Thanks, Mike [ @cubsfan ],

 

Agreed. And I would add : Naturally! I was - perhaps - lacking logic in the way my post turned out. Difficult to call your self a state, if you don't have order in own house! Grabbing for the legs in the trousers of USA and clinging onto them will naturally not work over time from here going forward.

[John Hjorth]

17 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

I would also like to know how any outcome in the Ukraine war is going to negate the nuclear threat. If Putin, wins, gets a draw or loses the war - he still has his nuclear weapons and can make threats or pull the trigger any time he likes. If anything, if he wins or sees his threats going to have an impact on what the west is doing, it will lead to more threats.

 

On a more interesting note, there seems to be some significant  recon activity going on around Kherson where Ukrainian troops have established footholds eastern banks of the Dnipro river. Whether that means anything in terms of the expected spring offensive remains to be seen.

 

 

I'm clinging on to, that someone will take intiative to remove him, from inside Russia. All wishfull thinking and hopes, no conviction as of now.

 

The madness has to stop - one way, or another.

Edited April 23, 2023 by John Hjorth

[cubsfan]

36 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

I would also like to know how any outcome in the Ukraine war is going to negate the nuclear threat. If Putin, wins, gets a draw or loses the war - he still has his nuclear weapons and can make threats or pull the trigger any time he likes. If anything, if he wins or sees his threats going to have an impact on what the west is doing, it will lead to more threats.

That’s exactly right. Putin only respects strength that is not backed by hollow red lines.

[John Hjorth]

54 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

I would also like to know how any outcome in the Ukraine war is going to negate the nuclear threat. If Putin, wins, gets a draw or loses the war - he still has his nuclear weapons and can make threats or pull the trigger any time he likes. If anything, if he wins or sees his threats going to have an impact on what the west is doing, it will lead to more threats.

 

On a more interesting note, there seems to be some significant  recon activity going on around Kherson where Ukrainian troops have established footholds eastern banks of the Dnipro river. Whether that means anything in terms of the expected spring offensive remains to be seen.

 

 

15 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

That’s exactly right. Putin only respects strength that is not backed by hollow red lines.

 

That is exactly why he needs to be removed. It's not that complicated.

[Spekulatius]

 

 

20 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

 

That is exactly why he needs to be removed. It's not that complicated.

To abuse an Andy Grove proverb, the paranoid are pretty good at surviving though.

[Castanza]

@John Hjorth thanks for sharing your perspective. I think what gets missed in the media is the lack of support or maybe better worded different mental framework (USA citizens vs EU citizens) that is being used to approach this conflict. I work with a lot of Europeans and the opinions they have are very different from my American colleagues. 
 

End of the day this isn’t an easy situation to deal with. I just think zooming out helps. If human intentions and mindsets don’t change in the nuclear age our luck will eventually run out. We’ve had substantial wars almost every 15-20 years since the “Enlightenment.” Interesting times. 
 

@Spekulatius I still think the best framework to view the war is what caused it? I’d say a high degree of NATO expansion pushed the limits of what is and is not acceptable. So I think root cause analysis will be important moving forward if negotiations are sought. 
 

NATO was good in the short term for members, but look at the alliances being formed over the last 2 years among non-members. It’s forcing global tribalism to a level that hasn’t been seen in a long time. It’s a whole new world out there and NATO has failed to keep the peace. NATO members have failed to play their part. 
 

Peace in Europe and Asia depends on the US. Over 100 adjacent countries to  conflict zones and the island 4K miles away is the one responsible for fixing issues it doesn’t understand culturally or historically? I think it’s an absurd endeavor to maintain. We can’t keep saying “we’ll adjust after this one.” 

[cubsfan]

A strong USA gives you the best opportunity for peace in the developing world. There has never been a military power like the United States. Paired up with Europe - and now you have a real chance to continue peace for a long, long time.

 

However, you cannot have pacifists running your most powerful allies. You must be willing to use force.

 

NATO or fear of a United Europe/America by the Soviets - kept Russia in check for 75 years.

NATO fucked up royally, so did the pacifist Obama.

 

But to say - tribalism is ruling, I think that's misguided. Strong military alliances take continued work, so your point is well taken that NATO fucked up. You just can't give up that easily - weak leadership just needs to be replaced.

Edited April 23, 2023 by cubsfan

[Xerxes]

It is one thing to debate the “what should we do” side of the discussion. These are legitimate discussion based on legitimate concerns. 
 

it is another matter, to always conclude (or use as leverage in an argument) that it is “Germany 1930s again. Don’t you see it”. 

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godwin's_law

BTW Russian state does that as well in its own propaganda. Kiev is ran by the Azov regiment.