Political Posts

[Xerxes]

This is amazing

 

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/mystery-flag-honour-dieppe-raids-015703175.html

[Ulti]

I'm just amazed how quickly policy becomes institutionalized under a dictatorship

[shhughes1116]

3 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

. These are some of the better troops that Russia has, so their absence will be felt in this war for a long time to come.

I’m not so sure about this.  The various stuff that I follow suggests that they had been feeding the new conscripts into the Kherson defensive line and pulling out the VDV troops.  My suspicion is that most of the VDV and their equipment is already out of Kherson, and the mobiks were left holding the bag.  
 

By withdrawing from Kherson, Russian has allowed Ukraine to shorten their line and re-deploy troops.  ukraine has/had about 50k combat troops along the Kherson line.  With Russians on the other side of the Dnipro now, Ukraine only needs about half that number to defend the river, and maybe less given the Russians ability to cross rivers and the width of the Dnipro.   
 

I continue to think Polohy is the next focal point for Ukraine, and onwards to Mariupol and Melitpol.
 

 

 

[no_free_lunch]

Rumors that it's going down in Kherson. Even the pro Russia accounts I follow are really struggling with this.  This is big. This is the first major city to be liberated and is very demoralizing for Russia.  Pro Russia accounts now focusing on some indeterminate future whrn conscripts kick in, full war is declared and the tides shifts back to them, what a joke. They are saying that actually Ukraine army is one of the strongest in the world, lol, not true but yes they seem willing to dievto avoid genocide if the people.   Meanwhile hard to justify your Russiam kids dying when you aren't even succeeding in the mission. 

 

Ukraine side is saying this will put roads to crimea in range of himars.   Perhaps they can slowly strangulate the Russians from this new position.

 

I appreciate your perspective shhughes.   I hope they can keep the momentum up.

 

Xerxes you don't have anything intelligent to say here so stop barking like a poodle. 

Edited November 11, 2022 by no_free_lunch

[Spekulatius]

48 minutes ago, shhughes1116 said:

I’m not so sure about this.  The various stuff that I follow suggests that they had been feeding the new conscripts into the Kherson defensive line and pulling out the VDV troops.  My suspicion is that most of the VDV and their equipment is already out of Kherson, and the mobiks were left holding the bag.  
 

By withdrawing from Kherson, Russian has allowed Ukraine to shorten their line and re-deploy troops.  ukraine has/had about 50k combat troops along the Kherson line.  With Russians on the other side of the Dnipro now, Ukraine only needs about half that number to defend the river, and maybe less given the Russians ability to cross rivers and the width of the Dnipro.   
 

I continue to think Polohy is the next focal point for Ukraine, and onwards to Mariupol and Melitpol.
 

 

 

You are likely correct. The Russian retreat does not look like  rout and they may have just sacrificed some conscripts to preserve their regular army.

 

Crossing the Dnipro under fire would be tough, so I expect this front line to become quieter, likely with artillery duels continuing.

[Dinar]

28 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

Rumors that it's going down in Kherson. Even the pro Russia accounts I follow are really struggling with this.  This is big. This is the first major city to be liberated and is very demoralizing for Russia.  Pro Russia accounts now focusing on some indeterminate future whrn conscripts kick in, full war is declared and the tides shifts back to them, what a joke. They are saying that actually Ukraine army is one of the strongest in the world, lol, not true but yes they seem willing to dievto avoid genocide if the people.   Meanwhile hard to justify your Russiam kids dying when you aren't even succeeding in the mission. 

 

Ukraine side is saying this will put roads to crimea in range of himars.   Perhaps they can slowly strangulate the Russians from this new position.

 

I appreciate your perspective shhughes.   I hope they can keep the momentum up.

 

Xerxes you don't have anything intelligent to say here so stop barking like a poodle. 

I disagree with you, I find Xerxes commentary to be generally on point and quite interesting.   Let's keep it civil, please.  

[Pelagic]

More and more I'm starting to think this war is going to be won 50 miles at a time. Russia doesn't have an answer to HIMARS and simply doesn't have the road logistics to support the kind of force it has that relies heavily on mass artillery. They can bring supplies to within 50 miles or so of the front by train but from there they don't have an answer to actually getting sufficient quantities to the front and can't sustain heavy operations against Ukraine.

 

Having a defensive line along the Dnipro now frees up a lot of Ukrainian troops that were in Kherson for a push south toward the Sea of Azov starting somewhere in the Zaphorizha region. The goal being to sever the rail line in southern Ukraine that Russia has access to. Combined with the destruction of the Kerch bridge, it will starve Russian forces in Crimea and southern Ukraine. It will take time, and Ukraine isn't likely to commit forces to a large scale urban battle where they'd sustain heavy losses, but they'll simply keep doing what works, degrading Russian forces within range of HIMARS and their artillery until they retreat. Ukraine is starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel. 

[no_free_lunch]

1 hour ago, Dinar said:

I disagree with you, I find Xerxes commentary to be generally on point and quite interesting.   Let's keep it civil, please.  

Why would I be civil to those backing genocide?

[Dinar]

48 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

Why would I be civil to those backing genocide?

Exactly when did Xerxes backed genocide?   

[no_free_lunch]

I call it like I see it.  These accounts continue to take the side of Russia in an invasion that involves: rape , murder, torture and with the underlying motive of genocide of Ukraine as a cultural unit.  It's subtle but that's what I see.  "Oh I am not backing Russia, I am just saying..."  Yeah right.

[Xerxes]

@no_free_lunch
you are sounding more and more like a Western teenager overexcited by war. Or should I say you are being “selective” in terms of what wars of aggression excites you to the point of hysteria and which ones doesn’t. Hint: It excites you if the victim are white people, and you couldn’t care less otherwise. Nope you don’t say it, but it is all subtle in between the words. And you are not the only one. 

 

I must be the only one on this board that actually lived in a country at war, where the aggressor was backed by all Western  major powers, where cities were burned, people were raped, families were destroyed, infrastructure was destroyed, where WMD was used  …. For 8 years ! So forgive me, if I am not as naive and stupid as you are.   
 

Given these last comments from you, me and you will have nothing else to discuss. I don’t have time for the likes of you.  

But just to close on this last point, understand however that political powwow and reality on the ground are not the same. George Bush declared mission accomplished in 2003, only to order a major Surge in 2008. Hence my comment of me not caring about Kremlin says. You want your enemy to remain stupid. An enemy that can make a decision to withdraw (as oppose to hold out) is one that acting more rationally and one that is less stupid. And yes independently of whatever Kremlin says about annexation and Kherson forever etc. 
 

 

 

[no_free_lunch]

Which side has been calling for Ukraine to surrender and saying Russia has the upper hand for the past 6 months.  Not me, so which of us is stupid now?  By the way, I never called you names, I just told you what your position made you, the proponent of slaughter of Ukrainians.

 

I back Ukraine as it's the right thing to do, because they face annihilation. If Russia wins there it's not going to be good for Canada so it's also in my most selfish interest.  In the middle east for sure i back the Iranian protesters, at least symbolically but what can we do?  The one Iranian I know says something like, it's more complicated than you realize and it's none of your business and to stay out.  Ukraine is not saying to stay out.  I don't see the moral conflict there at all.

[Spekulatius]

3 hours ago, Dinar said:

Exactly when did Xerxes backed genocide?   

Just because there is a war in Ukraine does not mean there needs to be a war in COBF.

[Dinar]

4 hours ago, no_free_lunch said:

I call it like I see it.  These accounts continue to take the side of Russia in an invasion that involves: rape , murder, torture and with the underlying motive of genocide of Ukraine as a cultural unit.  It's subtle but that's what I see.  "Oh I am not backing Russia, I am just saying..."  Yeah right.

You keep throwing words like genocide, annihilation, etc... You accused me of being a proponent of slaughter of Ukrainians, when all I said was the war needs to stop asap.  If you provide your name rather than hide behind a screen name, I will sue you for defamation, although an apology will suffice.  I have nothing against Ukrainians, three of my four grandparents were born there, my wife was born in Kiev, and we have donated to substantial funds to help Ukrainian refugees.   Is it really in Ukraine's interest for the war to last?   More deaths, crippled people and destruction.  As for genocide, I would suggest that Ukrainians cannot throw stones.  Remember Stepan Bandera and UPA?  Care to recall how many Poles and Jews he and his henchmen murdered?  A national hero of Ukraine.  

[scorpioncapital]

how many people did americans, canadians , australians , spanish murder taking over those lands?

and we dare to speak of Russia taking over Ukraine?

 

 

Edited November 11, 2022 by scorpioncapital

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, scorpioncapital said:

how many people did americans, canadians , australians , spanish murder taking over those lands?

and we dare to speak of Russia taking over Ukraine?

 

 

So injustice in those cases which occurred hundred of years ago justifies doing nothing to injustice and attempt of genocide now?

 

Like, we didn’t help Aborigines against the Australian colonizers 150 years ago and that’s why we need to stay put when Russia tries to colonize Ukraine now? That makes no sense to me.

Edited November 12, 2022 by Spekulatius

[Xerxes]

@Spekulatius

 

Spek,

 

firstly I don’t think anyone is saying that. In fact I don’t even think anyone has said they should get zero support.
 

Of course people having conversation in this thread to which degree there ought to be support (and consequences of). And those very same conversation are happening in the White House or other forums in the past six months. Doesn’t mean you can go around label people genocidle. 

secondly, you (and I don’t mean you personally, so pls take no offence) cannot choose when it is convenient for you to give damn about victims. And when put on your “airplane mode” on, and look the other way, because it is an inconvenience and you cannot be bothered. There is nothing cool about wars, genocides, that people should chose one set of circumstances over others. 
 

thirdly, unfortunately every genocide looks like a line or a paragraph in history books 100 years later. You are right in your comment about a genocide 150 years is no excuse to stand idly by. And those poor aboriginal people were probably saying/thinking the same thing even as they got hacked down (anyways) by the white colonizer. Everything is relative. We may have the a good excuse to help install Pinochet as a dictator in Chile, because Cold War, fighting communism etc, but surely the Chilean didn’t see it like that at the time, and said “WTF”. The Indians that got massacred by the Portuguese as the latter were building their commercial network in the Indian Ocean probably said: “WTF i thought we were pass this. This the fifteenth century for Christ sake !!!”. In 1991-92, after the Gulf War, Bush Senior got the Iraqis and the Kurds to rise up against Saddam, from north and south, only to let Saddam massacre them, so that the centre of power is preserved. What about that genocide and the enablers behind it  ? Was there a forum thread on that ? Or there geopolitics trumped everything else. 
 

Everyone relative point of view of “oh we don’t do that anymore. We are in a civilized age”, is built on the skulls and bones of the last genocide. Once we are done with genocide, we declare the beginning of a new civilized age, built out historical monument and accuse another party that is trying to crash our party. 

Lastly, I think tribalism has now taken over this thread. I say this about the fall of Kherson. Happy that it happened on Nov 11. 
 

[no_free_lunch]

16 hours ago, scorpioncapital said:

how many people did americans, canadians , australians , spanish murder taking over those lands?

and we dare to speak of Russia taking over Ukraine?

 

 

 

So let's break this down, it's now widely considered that what happened in North America to the aboriginals was some type of genocide.  So my opinion, by making that link to Ukraine you are suggesting that there is a similar type of genocide there and that we should ignore it.

 

This is the thing Dinar, maybe not you specifically but in my opinion people ARE aware of genocide (as the term is now used, not trying to link to something like the holocaust) and they are saying we should ignore it.

Edited November 12, 2022 by no_free_lunch

[Dinar]

4 hours ago, no_free_lunch said:

 

So let's break this down, it's now widely considered that what happened in North America to the aboriginals was some type of genocide.  So my opinion, by making that link to Ukraine you are suggesting that there is a similar type of genocide there and that we should ignore it.

 

This is the thing Dinar, maybe not you specifically but in my opinion people ARE aware of genocide (as the term is now used, not trying to link to something like the holocaust) and they are saying we should ignore it.

You asked why.  So here is a view that many Russians express and frankly, I cannot argue with the logic, although I find it morally wrong.  

 Stepan Bandera is a national hero of Ukraine, with numerous statues in cities like Lviv, and many streets named after him.  This national hero and his men murdered hundreds of thousands of Polish and Jewish civilians in the 20th century.  So clearly Ukrainian people consider genocide something admirable, so why do you get worked up if it happens to them?  They clearly think it is wonderful!    But for a people who consider mass murder to be admirable when they do it to Jews or Poles but a tragedy when it happens to them, well, I am sorry, but this is a pot calling the kettle black or karma.  

 

Again, this is not my personal view, and I do not hold grandchildren responsible for the sins of their grandfathers, but I would like grandchildren to acknowledge that mass murder is wrong, even if it is done by their grandfathers.

Edited November 12, 2022 by Dinar

[Xerxes]

Thanks @Dinar

 

Goes to show how much we don’t know on this side of the pond. And even perhaps in Europe as well.
 

I don’t know about all other posters in this thread but I for one am unaware of these subtleties. If it doesn’t make it to BBC, CNN or The Simpson, it is not real. (sarcasm)

 

 

Edited November 12, 2022 by Xerxes

[Xerxes]

WooooOpps

 

i forgot to attach the disclaimer to my previous post:   ……. but it does not justify the war that Kremlin is waging. 
 

Must not forget the disclaimer in this thread. 

[no_free_lunch]

If we are going to talk USSR, here is what they did back in the 30s:

 

Quote

The Holodomor (Ukrainian: Голодомо́р, romanized: Holodomor, IPA: [ɦolodoˈmɔr];^[2] derived from морити голодом, moryty holodom, 'to kill by starvation'),^[a][3][4][5] also known as the Terror-Famine^[6][7][8] or the Great Famine,^[9] was a man-made famine in Soviet Ukraine from 1932 to 1933 that killed millions of Ukrainians. The Holodomor famine was part of the wider Soviet famine of 1932–1933 which affected the major grain-producing areas of the country.^[10]

^..

A joint statement to the United Nations signed by 25 countries in 2003 declared that 7–10 million died.^[20][21] However, current scholarship estimates a range significantly lower, with 3.5 to 5 million victims.^{[22][23][24][25][26]} The famine's widespread impact on Ukraine persists to this day.^[22]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor

 

Here is how well they treated the poles.  Remember that the USSR initially sided with Nazi germany, only switching sides when attacked.

 

 

Quote

The invasion of Poland (1 September – 6 October 1939) was a joint attack on the Republic of Poland by Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union which marked the beginning of World War II.^[1

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_of_Poland

 

Annihilation of Polish officers after the war.

 

Quote

The Katyn massacre^[a] was a series of mass executions of nearly 22,000 Polish military officers and intelligentsia prisoners of war carried out by the Soviet Union, specifically the NKVD ("People's Commissariat for Internal Affairs", the Soviet secret police) in April and May 1940. 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katyn_massacre

 

That's all the history. If you think genocide are too strong of terms, this is what they are up against.

Edited November 12, 2022 by no_free_lunch

[Dinar]

1 hour ago, no_free_lunch said:

If we are going to talk USSR, here is what they did back in the 30s:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor

 

Here is how well they treated the poles.  Remember that the USSR initially sided with Nazi germany, only switching sides when attacked.

 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_of_Poland

 

Annihilation of Polish officers after the war.

 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katyn_massacre

 

That's all the history. If you think genocide are too strong of terms, this is what they are up against.

I know history, none of this is new to me.  Russia is not USSR, Communism and Nazism are two sides of the same coin. 

 

I am sorry, but what's your point?  

 

Does any of this justify what Bandera and his men did?   Ukraine clearly considers genocide admirable when victims are Poles and Jews, so why are they surprised if Russians adopt a tactic that Ukraine considers praiseworthy?  You do not say a word about these men, do you consider them heroes?

 

 

My point is three fold:

 

a) I would not call this genocide - yes, killing one civilian is a tragedy, and probably hundreds of Ukrainian civilians have died, but to call this a genocide would be a stretch.  This is not a plan to wipeout Ukrainian people, who sadly are doing it successfully themselves (look at Ukrainian demographics - if I am not mistaken, the number of 5 year olds was down 25% in 2020 vs 1989 in Ukraine).

 I am thankfully not aware of Dresden/Tokyo fire raid type bombardment of Lviv for instance.  If Putin's plan was to commit genocide, surely we would have gotten this type of attack by now, no?

 

b) People that think that Stepan Bandera and Roman-Taras Yosypovych Shukhevych deserve statues rather than infamy along the lines of Hitler forfeit a right to complain about genocide.   

 

c) People everywhere usually act in their own self interest.  When individuals act in a righteous manner, that's a cause for celebration, when nations act this way, it is incredible.  Nobody owns Ukraine anything, and it is NOT in the interest of the US or Europe to support Ukraine.  This support will go away at some point, the question is how quickly?  It is in the interest of Ukraine to settle things with Russia before the West pulls support.  

 

I wish that the war would end as soon as possible.  I think that it is in the interest of both Ukraine and Russia, as well as US and Europe that it ends asap.   The only ones who gain are the Chinese, the Indians, and the Iranian regime.   

 

I am very sorry for the Ukrainians.  

{I have three grandparents from Ukraine, my wife is from Kiev, my best friend is from Kiev (and his grandmother is still there), I still have an aunt and cousin in Ukraine.  My wife and donated significant amount of money to Ukrainian refugees, and so did my parents and in-laws. }

 

I will not debate your further.  You are acting very emotionally, and I have no desire to stress you out further.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[UK]

1 hour ago, Dinar said:

c) People everywhere usually act in their own self interest.  When individuals act in a righteous manner, that's a cause for celebration, when nations act this way, it is incredible.  Nobody owns Ukraine anything, and it is NOT in the interest of the US or Europe to support Ukraine.  This support will go away at some point, the question is how quickly?  It is in the interest of Ukraine to settle things with Russia before the West pulls support.  

 

I wish that the war would end as soon as possible.  I think that it is in the interest of both Ukraine and Russia, as well as US and Europe that it ends asap.   The only ones who gain are the Chinese, the Indians, and the Iranian regime.   

 

Why do you think it is not in the interest of US or west to support Ukraine? Given ukrainian will and at this time proven ability to fight isnnt it a very good opportunity (not with you own soldiers) to push back, weaken and contain if not change Russia even more? Also, I am not sure about any obligations to Ukraine, but I thought there were some security guarantees for them after they agreed to give uo nuclear weapons? Also, if this pushback will succed (sofar it seems it could?), donnt you think it would show something to China too? I actually believe that US and west almost cannot aford not to support Ukraine and it would be a huge failure not to do this, unlees you want allow Russian regime to do as they want in Europe and China in Taiwan/south asia. I am not debating who is right or wrong, moral or not, but just from this longer term or great power strugle perspective, why would US not see this as an very good opportunity? And I agree that ending all this asap would be great, but how do can you end a war, when part of your territories are still occupied by an enemy? Maybe sollution at this stage, if you want everything to end asap, is more support (more Himars, tanks etc to Ukraine), not less? What good it will do if you stop everything for a one ore two years and provide opportunity for russian forces to regain strenght?

 

 

Edited November 13, 2022 by UK

[Dinar]

22 minutes ago, UK said:

 

Why do you think it is not in the interest of US or west to support Ukraine? Given ukrainian will and at this time proven ability to fight isnnt it a very good opportunity (not with you own soldiers) to push back, weaken and contain if not change Russia even more? Also, I am not sure about any obligations to Ukraine, but I thought there were some security guarantees for them after they agreed to give uo nuclear weapons? Also, if this pushback will succed (sofar it seems it could?), donnt you think it would show something to China too? I actually believe that US and west almost cannot aford not to support Ukraine and it would be a huge failure not to do this, unlees you want allow Russian regime to do as they want in Europe and China in Taiwan/south asia. I am not debating who is right or wrong, moral or not, but just from this longer term or great power strugle perspective, why would US not see this as an very good opportunity? And I agree that ending all this asap would be great, but how do can you end a war, when part of your territories are still occupied by an enemy? Maybe sollution at this stage, if you want everything to end asap, is more support (more Himars, tanks etc to Ukraine), not less? What good it will do if you stop everything for a one ore two years and provide opportunity for russian forces to regain strenght?

 

 

So I am not suggesting that Ukraine gives up the territory that Russia seized in 2022, reading  Putin's speeches, it seems to me that he is looking for a way out, so perhaps (and I have no special insight), an agreement that Ukraine does not enter NATO would allow Putin to claim victory, and for Russian troops to depart.   (I doubt Ukraine will be able to get territories seized prior to 2022 until Putin passes and a normal successor comes and a genuine referendum is done there.  I would be shocked however if Crimea was ever returned.  It was part of Russian Empire for centuries and was transferred from Russian Federation to Ukraine in 1954 by Khruschev (ethnic Ukrainian) as a gift to commemorate 300 year anniversary of Russia+Ukraine union.  )

 

I think that the biggest threat to the US/Western Europe is China, followed by Iran and Islamic terrorism.   My guess is that Iran will no longer be a threat in say 5 or 10 years since I assume that its clerical regime will be gone.  Persia was a very accomplished civilization centuries before Christ.  

 

Since I believe that China is the biggest threat to the US/Western Europe, I would like to see a strong Russia as a counterweight to China (remember Nixon went to China to use China as a counterweight to USSR.)  Weak Russia that is dependent on China and Iran is not in our interests.   Nuclear & strategic missile technology in the hands of Iranian clerics is not a good thing in my opinion.  

 

 

 

If I am not mistaken, you are referring to the security guarantees given by countries including China to Ukraine when it gave up nukes.   I do not remember the agreement well, but are Germany/Poland/Italy on the hook as well?