Have We Hit The Top?

[Gregmal]

The “smart money” active guys are great at maximizing their earnings. Only a fool believes that these guys actually have “maximize investor returns” as a top priority. 

[Spooky]

29 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

The “smart money” active guys are great at maximizing their earnings. Only a fool believes that these guys actually have “maximize investor returns” as a top priority. 

 

Most of their incentives are wrong - they can't under perform for a year or they are toast. Results in a lot of herding into the successful bets.

[Blake Hampton]

33 minutes ago, Spooky said:

 

Most of their incentives are wrong - they can't under perform for a year or they are toast. Results in a lot of herding into the successful bets.

I believe this sums it up

[Dalal.Holdings]

Yep. Momentum works well until it reverses. Then you get hosed. But hey, at least you made hay while the sun was shining, right? After you blow up, you can go start another fund a few years later anyway

[brobro777]

Huh, feels like the juice is gone, leading to soft Jan 

 

Maybe there'll be a good 20% crack in 2025 - that would be pretty cool, haha

 

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

Alright, we've got an ETH thread, Michael Saylor being pitched as a value investor, and threads on Quantum Computing, etc.

 

With this energy, we can summon The Top to come sooner. Let's keep it going 

 

[[email protected]]

I think this is a real stress test for the bond market and then every other asset classes like Equity or Crypto.

[james22]

On 12/22/2024 at 2:47 PM, Dalal.Holdings said:

The Top feels close.

 

3 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

The Top is close. I can smell it. I'm tapped out of U.S. markets other than some core holdings.

 

What's your track record, DH?

[Blake Hampton]

3 hours ago, [email protected] said:

I think this is a real stress test for the bond market and then every other asset classes like Equity or Crypto.

I saw nearly half of all the outstanding government debt is set to mature by 2026.

 

Combine this with legislators who will keep widening the deficit, and possibly infringe on FED independence, and you have a situation that seems like it could get bad quick. I think almost everyones gonna be caught off guard when the problems in bond markets spill over into everything else, it seems almost inevitable at this point.

Edited December 30, 2024 by Blake Hampton

[changegonnacome]

11 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

Yep. Momentum works well until it reverses. Then you get hosed. But hey, at least you made hay while the sun was shining, right? After you blow up, you can go start another fund a few years later anyway

 

Well the beauty of momentum/herding from a traditional asset managers perspective......is that you get hosed at the exact time everybody else is i.e. all your competitors are getting hosed too........much easier conversation with a pension fund or endowment when every other manager they have on their books is having a bad year too.

 

Being up when other are down.......and down when others are up........is a terrible business model for a money management firm......its an invitation to get your head chopped off by your clients.......I'm sympathetic to institutional allocators....what I just described could be a manager giving true alpha (across the cycle)....or it could be a manager giving you beta minus 10%....the problem is it'll take about 8-10yrs to be absolutely certain which one it is.

 

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

3 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Well the beauty of momentum/herding from a traditional asset managers perspective......is that you get hosed at the exact time everybody else is i.e. all your competitors are getting hosed too........much easier conversation with a pension fund or endowment when every other manager they have on their books is having a bad year too.

 

Being up when other are down.......and down when others are up........is a terrible business model for a money management firm......its an invitation to get your head chopped off by your clients.......I'm sympathetic to institutional allocators....what I just described could be a manager giving true alpha (across the cycle)....or it could be a manager giving you beta minus 10%....the problem is it'll take about 8-10yrs to be absolutely certain which one it is.

 

 

 

‘Don’t hate the player, hate the game’….or just play a different game altogether

[Blake Hampton]

6 hours ago, [email protected] said:

I think this is a real stress test for the bond market and then every other asset classes like Equity or Crypto.

What’s everyone else’s take on this?

[Dalal.Holdings]

Sounds like this guy:

 

 

I have no take on this kind of analysis. What I do know is that there is a dearth of fat pitches in the U.S. market and lots of insane investment theses being passed around. That tells me to be cautious

 

[james22]

4 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

That tells me to be cautious

 

What's your track record, DH?

[Blake Hampton]

10 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

What's your track record, DH?

This guy

[gfp]

23 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

What’s everyone else’s take on this?

 

Your time is better spent worrying about something other than US treasury refinancing.  

[Blake Hampton]

3 minutes ago, gfp said:

Your time is better spent worrying about something other than US treasury refinancing.  

You’re probably right

[james22]

3 hours ago, Blake Hampton said:

This guy

 

What's your track record, Blake?

[Blake Hampton]

5 minutes ago, james22 said:

What's your track record, Blake?

 

I'm sure it's not as good as yours.

[Blake Hampton]

“To achieve satisfactory investment results, the intelligent investor must concentrate—all-in on Bitcoin, using as much debt as possible.”

- Benjamin Graham, probably

[cubsfan]

1 minute ago, Blake Hampton said:

“To achieve satisfactory investment results, the intelligent investor must concentrate—all-in on Bitcoin, using as much debt as possible.”

- Benjamin Graham, probably

 

Now that is funny.

[Junior R]

1 hour ago, Blake Hampton said:

“To achieve satisfactory investment results, the intelligent investor must concentrate—all-in on Bitcoin, using as much debt as possible.”

- Benjamin Graham, probably

out of all companies out there the one that scares me the most today interims of leverage is this company starts with M lol does exactly the above lol imagine if bitcoin pulled back to 40k

Edited December 30, 2024 by Junior R

[gfp]

2 minutes ago, Junior R said:

out of all companies out there the one that scares me the most today interims of leverage is this company starts with M lol does exactly the above lol imagine if bitcoin pulled back to 40k

 

Are you familiar with the type of debt MSTR has outstanding, the maturity dates and amounts due, the terms of the debt, and the equity base of the company?

[Junior R]

Just now, gfp said:

 

Are you familiar with the type of debt MSTR has outstanding, the maturity dates and amounts due, the terms of the debt, and the equity base of the company?

No I do need to do more research on it but it seems crazy for a company to keep issuing debt to buy an asset that does not generate money unless you stake it ...Value is fully driven buy what the next person will pay for it...with stocks at least there is earnings, buybacks, buyouts, ect but I am not a crypto person

[gfp]

4 minutes ago, Junior R said:

No I do need to do more research on it but it seems crazy for a company to keep issuing debt to buy an asset that does not generate money unless you stake it ...Value is fully driven buy what the next person will pay for it...with stocks at least there is earnings, buybacks, buyouts, ect but I am not a crypto person

At least start here if you are going to post about it -

https://blog.bitmex.com/microstrategy-bonds-can-mstr-get-liquidated/