cubsfan Posted January 22, 2025 Posted January 22, 2025 5 minutes ago, Grenville said: hmm it seems everyone else has a moniker your giving them, what’s yours? Your call on that.
Spekulatius Posted January 22, 2025 Posted January 22, 2025 (edited) Isn’t “cubsfan” crazy enough Edited January 22, 2025 by Spekulatius
cubsfan Posted January 22, 2025 Posted January 22, 2025 2 minutes ago, Spekulatius said: Isn’t “cubsfan” crazy enough Hahaha - that's just the tip of the iceberg. It's an acquired taste.
Sweet Posted January 22, 2025 Posted January 22, 2025 1 hour ago, Gregmal said: Covid great, sure. SVB he caused. And inflation he totally overreacted to and chased his tail. It was transitory all along he just got the timeline wrong. Same timeline a bunch of us here accurately predicted almost to the month. Now he’s just chasing things that don’t exist. I don’t agree he caused SVB, he had to raise rates IMO. I think he was too slow with rates, and perhaps too high at the end, but SVB failed because they didn’t manage their bond portfolio well, and they had a customer base that pulled out their money quickly at the slightest whiff of a problem. Like you I do believe a large measure of inflation was supply chain, but easy money has to end in times of inflation. Near zero rates is not historically normal, or in my opinion good.
james22 Posted January 22, 2025 Posted January 22, 2025 1 hour ago, Blake Hampton said: I strongly believe that we’re living in a period of unprecedented disinformation and madness. You're 22 years old. LOL How the fuck would you know?
Blake Hampton Posted January 22, 2025 Posted January 22, 2025 Just now, james22 said: You're 22 years old. LOL How the fuck would you know? It's called reading history
james22 Posted January 22, 2025 Posted January 22, 2025 Just now, Blake Hampton said: It's called reading history Then you should know: It's always a period of disinformation and madness.
james22 Posted January 22, 2025 Posted January 22, 2025 History always seems obvious in hindsight. At the time though, nothing is. Live long enough and you'll learn nothing is unprecedented.
Gregmal Posted January 22, 2025 Posted January 22, 2025 4 minutes ago, Sweet said: I don’t agree he caused SVB OK yes, HE didnt cause SVB, but HE created the situation and post mortem the story is "stupid actors that didnt manage risk" for SVB, but Powell nearly caused a widespread run on the whole banking system, almost exclusively over the issue of "MTM" on long duration fixed income....something he is supposed to be overseeing as a regulator. None of that stuff needed to happen. And if YOU are responsible for the stress tests, should YOU then know where the system limits lay? I dont think people fully understand the insanity of this. ZIRP is neither necessary or healthy. Super violent rerates though can hurt people and break things. Theres the arrogant finance guy retort that "this was the point", but I dont buy it, especially if youre the benevolent overseer and protector of the less fortunate that many claimed he viewed himself as in his inflation "fight". You know the stories no one hears? Folks whom lost their jobs because of all the corporations trying to front run "the reset" in 2022/3. All the people whom lost deposits or had to walk from their new homes because they no longer qualified for the mortgage. The people whom worked low end jobs barely getting by whom went from having $25-30 an hour job offers everywhere they looked to now just being back to punching in and hoping they get 3% annually. Thats where this jackass screwed the pooch big time. In what world, banking crisis or affordability crisis, did going from 0-5% in half a year make any sense? It was one of the most reckless things Ive ever seen from a guv guy.
Blake Hampton Posted January 22, 2025 Posted January 22, 2025 Just now, james22 said: Then you should know: It's always a period of disinformation and madness. True, but I do think some periods are worse than others. I would argue that now is pretty bad. However, if you were to compare it to Goebbels and Nazi Germany, it might look pretty mundane. It's all relative.
73 Reds Posted January 22, 2025 Posted January 22, 2025 2 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said: True, but I do think some periods are worse than others. I would argue that now is pretty bad. However, if you were to compare it to Goebbels and Nazi Germany, it might look pretty mundane. It's all relative. Bad for who? Precisely what are you complaining about? In my lifetime I've never seen so much opportunity for so many. Where is it written that everyone should be able to afford a home and pretty much everything else they want? There is a job for anyone who wants one, educational opportunities for just about any field or interest, and the average standard of living today is incomparable to just one generation ago; trust me, I lived it. My advice: Stop complaining and go do something productive.
james22 Posted January 22, 2025 Posted January 22, 2025 1 minute ago, Blake Hampton said: True, but I do think some periods are worse than others. I would argue that now is pretty bad. However, if you were to compare it to Goebbels and Nazi Germany, it might look pretty mundane. It's all relative. LOL Compare it to 2020 (Corona), 2007 (Sub-prime), 9/11, 2000, etc., etc. And those were only the crashes. You could also compare it to EVERY SINGLE OTHER YEAR where crashes didn't happen but were forecast. Every recovery is only a dead cat bounce, etc.
Gregmal Posted January 22, 2025 Posted January 22, 2025 I say this in a way marveling at James, because having been here a while, I think its worth pointing out some of his evolution, and giving him credit for finding something in his wheelhouse and running with it. As the above post highlights, at one point in his tenure here, he sounded a bit like Blake. 40% cash! All I can say is we all have our own investing journeys and the only mandate is not to become hypnotized by literature or experts.
cubsfan Posted January 22, 2025 Posted January 22, 2025 4 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said: True, but I do think some periods are worse than others. I would argue that now is pretty bad. However, if you were to compare it to Goebbels and Nazi Germany, it might look pretty mundane. It's all relative. IF you believe that , then you should have no problem at all with free speech. And as @Gregmal points out, you might be the one being buffaloed with disinformation by J. Powell. Inflation has been killing the middle class with everyday purchases and has priced their kids out of the housing market. But, at the same time, it's certainly made a bunch of the CoBF members rich - which is not a great thing for society. That's why this government got the boot - not because the public is dumb -they see it everyday.
Sweet Posted January 22, 2025 Posted January 22, 2025 7 minutes ago, Gregmal said: OK yes, HE didnt cause SVB, but HE created the situation and post mortem the story is "stupid actors that didnt manage risk" for SVB, but Powell nearly caused a widespread run on the whole banking system, almost exclusively over the issue of "MTM" on long duration fixed income....something he is supposed to be overseeing as a regulator. None of that stuff needed to happen. And if YOU are responsible for the stress tests, should YOU then know where the system limits lay? I dont think people fully understand the insanity of this. ZIRP is neither necessary or healthy. Super violent rerates though can hurt people and break things. Theres the arrogant finance guy retort that "this was the point", but I dont buy it, especially if youre the benevolent overseer and protector of the less fortunate that many claimed he viewed himself as in his inflation "fight". You know the stories no one hears? Folks whom lost their jobs because of all the corporations trying to front run "the reset" in 2022/3. All the people whom lost deposits or had to walk from their new homes because they no longer qualified for the mortgage. The people whom worked low end jobs barely getting by whom went from having $25-30 an hour job offers everywhere they looked to now just being back to punching in and hoping they get 3% annually. Thats where this jackass screwed the pooch big time. In what world, banking crisis or affordability crisis, did going from 0-5% in half a year make any sense? It was one of the most reckless things Ive ever seen from a guv guy. It makes sense when inflation is 10%. I think he should have taken his foot off the gas sooner on the hikes. Of course there were people hurt by the pace of the rise, but how many older savers got fucked over from 14 years of ZIRP, if you didn’t own assets you got left behind.
73 Reds Posted January 22, 2025 Posted January 22, 2025 1 minute ago, Sweet said: It makes sense when inflation is 10%. I think he should have taken his foot off the gas sooner on the hikes. Of course there were people hurt by the pace of the rise, but how many older savers got fucked over from 14 years of ZIRP, if you didn’t own assets you got left behind. As much as ZIRP was a complete absurdity, older savers had other options. Some simply chose not to use them. Ignorance or a refusal to try to better your own situation is really not a valid excuse. No one forces anyone to make bad choices. When folks choose to remain in fixed income, it is a cognizant choice they make not to grow their nest egg. Why should anyone feel sorry for that? Not to sound harsh but there was no shortage of worthwhile investment and financial information available to anyone who wants it.
Gregmal Posted January 22, 2025 Posted January 22, 2025 2 minutes ago, 73 Reds said: As much as ZIRP was a complete absurdity, older savers had other options. Some simply chose not to use them. Ignorance or a refusal to try to better your own situation is really not a valid excuse. No one forces anyone to make bad choices. When folks choose to remain in fixed income, it is a cognizant choice they make not to grow their nest egg. Why should anyone feel sorry for that? Not to sound harsh but there was no shortage of worthwhile investment and financial information available to anyone who wants it. Exactly, the biggest freeloader out there is the one who wants something for nothing and that to a T is what a lot of the people whining about savers getting screwed by ZIRP were. A healthily functioning society requires investment in the future of society, which in simpler terms is putting money to work and why risk is often rewarded. Theres no sympathy for the 60 year old retiree who refused to do anything but own risk free fixed income.
james22 Posted January 22, 2025 Posted January 22, 2025 1 minute ago, Gregmal said: I say this in a way marveling at James, because having been here a while, I think its worth pointing out some of his evolution, and giving him credit for finding something in his wheelhouse and running with it. As the above post highlights, at one point in his tenure here, he sounded a bit like Blake. 40% cash! All I can say is we all have our own investing journeys and the only mandate is not to become hypnotized by literature or experts. It's very, very hard to accept you can't outsmart the Market. Even managing to invest that 40% cash at the 2020 lows didn't catch me up to the blindly optimistic buy-and-hold Tech investor.
Gregmal Posted January 22, 2025 Posted January 22, 2025 4 minutes ago, james22 said: It's very, very hard to accept you can't outsmart the Market. Even managing to invest that 40% cash at the 2020 lows didn't catch me up to the blindly optimistic buy-and-hold Tech investor. Yea well you evolved and are better off because of that decision. Many don’t. See the guy you quoted in that post, Hussman lol
Sweet Posted January 22, 2025 Posted January 22, 2025 (edited) 22 minutes ago, 73 Reds said: As much as ZIRP was a complete absurdity, older savers had other options. Some simply chose not to use them. Ignorance or a refusal to try to better your own situation is really not a valid excuse. No one forces anyone to make bad choices. When folks choose to remain in fixed income, it is a cognizant choice they make not to grow their nest egg. Why should anyone feel sorry for that? Not to sound harsh but there was no shortage of worthwhile investment and financial information available to anyone who wants it. Yeh I agree, but then don’t complain to me about people hurt by rising interest rates, because everyone has options. High rates hurt one type of people, low rates hurt another. The rate rises caused a buying opportunity in stocks, we ripped higher after it. Unable to get a mortgage - invest it and try again in 2-3 years. Same logic. Some companies are more than 2x from their low. Edited January 22, 2025 by Sweet
james22 Posted January 22, 2025 Posted January 22, 2025 12 minutes ago, Gregmal said: Yea well you evolved and are better off because of that decision. Many don’t. See the guy you quoted in that post, Hussman lol As hard as it is to accept you can't outsmart the market, it's even harder to accept you were outsmarted by (relatively blind) consensus/momentum investors. But returns are all that matters.
Parsad Posted January 23, 2025 Posted January 23, 2025 1 hour ago, 73 Reds said: Bad for who? Precisely what are you complaining about? In my lifetime I've never seen so much opportunity for so many. Where is it written that everyone should be able to afford a home and pretty much everything else they want? There is a job for anyone who wants one, educational opportunities for just about any field or interest, and the average standard of living today is incomparable to just one generation ago; trust me, I lived it. My advice: Stop complaining and go do something productive. I thought the world economy was collapsing and so called "woke" policies had turned everything to shit! I'm guessing that's the disinformation that Blake is talking about. Anyways, not specifically at you 73 Reds, but for everyone else, can you please get back on topic instead of political crap. The thread title is "Have We Hit The Top?" Cheers!
Eldad Posted January 23, 2025 Posted January 23, 2025 32 minutes ago, Sweet said: Relevant to above: Funny but the majority are certainly not bearish currently. The human race generally has moved onward and upward but it is possible for the market to be down and or flat for a decade or more 1930s, 1970s. 1400s Europe was a dead century economically. Stonks are good and timing is usually bad but it’s also good to have caution and be a contrarian when everyone is on one side of the boat (bearish or bullish).
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