Anyone Buying Toyota Stock?

[Mark Jr.]

I didnt watch the hearing but cant see it as over the top. Toyota put peoples lives at risk for profits. There really is no way to spin that. Google the police tape of the off duty cop in his car that wont slow down. He dies seconds after.

 

Tell me if you were related to him that you wouldnt be slightly pissed off.

 

Ford did the same years ago as well so the US makers arent much better. Call a spade a spade.

 

I did not realize anybody was actually killed by this, hence my feeling that it was all a bunch of hype.

 

If people are dying then it may be in the realm of the Pinto fiasco, which is a whole different ballgame.

 

[StubbleJumper]

As usual when the media get involved, this situation is characterized is a ridiculous amount of over-reaction to a very small number of fatalities spread over a very large number of Toyota drivers.  The last numbers that I've seen suggested that unwanted acceleration in Toyotas in the US may have caused just under 20 deaths over the past 10 years.  That's only 2 per year.  It sucks if you or your family happens to be one of the two, but this is trivial in the broader context of the risks that we all willingly accept every day when we get behind the wheel.

 

To put this risk in context, it is perhaps interesting to note that every year 30-40 people die from snowmobiling accidents in Ontario alone.  There are a hell of a lot more Toyota cruising the highways in the US than there are snowmobiles in Ontario.  And people who own a Toyota tend to spend a hell of a lot more time in their car than anyone could ever expect to spend on a ski-doo.  This whole re-call issue is pure garbage perpetuated by the media.

 

Toyota will recover from this in a few years, but it is a crying shame that their business will be hurt for a few years due to such a minor issue.

 

SJ

 

disclosure: I don't own shares, but I do own a Toyota.  If I ever have unwanted acceleration, I'm pretty sure that I'll be able to step on the clutch to avoid drastic consequences.

[Smazz]

I agree with whats mostly written here.

I have friends who are GM and former GM and now Toyota techs.

 

They told me that the floormat issue was def a huge part of the problem.

They said people were coming in with 3-4 sets of floor mats. The pedal had no where to move.

 

I drive a gm right now and comparing the quality of these cars to the quality of my brothers toyota is like night and day.

 

Cannot begin to describe the number of faulty areas on these cars that many other gm owners (from the auto forum board i go on) that never get recalled.

 

I asked my friend who was the GM tech (who is not going back to teachers college) "I'll bet there are should be at least 10 times the number of recalls that to what is actually out there"

HE said, 10 times, AT LEAST that.

 

Ha

[Myth465]

Charlie Rose had a recent show on Toyota which should provide more color.

 

http://www.charlierose.com/

 

Scroll through the last few weeks if you are interesting. It was a good overview of the situation.

 

Toyota's reaction was the problem. Sure not too many people died but once they were made aware of the the problem they blamed the floormats and stuck their head in the sand. I guess a few deaths a year is acceptable to some guys. Perhaps im being dramatic. They had the exact opposite reaction as JNJ.

 

 

[Guest kawikaho]

Yeah, I agree.  I don't understand why there is so much emotion and hype surrounding this Toyota problem.  I believe it's the US Gov't doing the Empire Strikes Back.  Hey, there's a pun here: Empire Strikes Back at Toy Yoda.  

 

I'm tempted to buy Toyota's stock, but it's not cheap enough given all the hoopla.  Besides, at current prices, I don't see it going much higher in price.  It's already near $112 billion in mkt cap.  

[Partner24]

Maybe there is an overreaction in the media, but does that media overreaction is deeply reflected in the stock price? I don't think so.

 

It is very difficult to me to predict the long term effect of what's happening right now to Toyota brand, but it sure do not help. Maybe it will, maybe it won't, but I don't like the "maybes".

 

And Toyota already has a significant market share in it's industry. Beside gaining few percentage points of market share and general industry growth tailwind, what will drive it's long term growth? Further cost reductions that will add to the margins? Not sure they can still do that a lot without putting Toyota brand at significant risk. That would sound to me "penny wise, dollar stupid" kind of cost reductions.

 

And I don't see how they will not ultimately faces some new competition (like BYD or someone else), and maybe some will be significant over the long run.

 

So add all of these, and I'm not tempted to buy. I prefer to stay with my actual very boring and quiet holdings. I saw the Peter Lynch interview posted here and it was interesting. He said something like a private investor can find 3 or 4 stocks per decade and that's quite enough. I couldn't agree more. Toyota is not an idea like that to me, but that's just my own opinion.

 

[Myth465]

Do you guys still think this is no big deal - http://www.dailyfinance.com/story/company-news/runaway-prius-shows-toyota-hasnt-solved-acceleration-problem/19389319/

 

If so why not join me for a ride in my Prius.

[libor.plus1]

I think value investors like most on this board have a tendency to jump into a stock way too fast. Toyota may have lost more market cap than it will ever be liable for... but that doesnt mean the stock isnt gonna keep getting pounded over the next year or two as this drags on.

[libor.plus1]

That's the thing. Now any time something goes wrong with a Toyota, its gonna make frontpage news because it makes for a good story, and american mentality the way it is, everyone is looking to make a quick buck off a lawsuit. Whether its actually Toyota's fault or not is a moot point, the shares will keep getting pounded.

[Guest kawikaho]

Do you guys still think this is no big deal - http://www.dailyfinance.com/story/company-news/runaway-prius-shows-toyota-hasnt-solved-acceleration-problem/19389319/

 

If so why not join me for a ride in my Prius.

 

There's a long thread in another forum I'm on that is talking about that.  The consensus is he's probably bullshitting.  You have a new acceleration problem that hasn't been observed before in this model, another new problem with the transmission not shifting to neutral, and a description of acceleration that doesn't happen in the second generation underpowered Priuses.  I dunno though.  I've found information regarding 2008 Priuses from a year or so ago that describe the brakes failing.  Occam's Razor favors the simpler explanation: probably bs'ing.

 

Well, looks like Toyota's looking for another round of stock price whacking.  This could potentially be big.

[StubbleJumper]

Do you guys still think this is no big deal - http://www.dailyfinance.com/story/company-news/runaway-prius-shows-toyota-hasnt-solved-acceleration-problem/19389319/

 

If so why not join me for a ride in my Prius.

 

Based on the numbers I've seen, I'd be completely comfortable to join you for a ride in your Prius or in any other Toyota.  There are probably far more accidents every day involving Toyota drivers that are caused by texting while driving than there are accidents in a year due to unwanted acceleration in Toyotas.

 

The fact that it makes headlines does not make it a meaningful risk.

 

SJ

[Myth465]

The risk is small, very small indeed.

 

Toyota has still done a piss poor job of handling it though. My guess is this will hurt in the short to medium term due to their mismanagement / cover up of the ordeal.

 

My point is this is not some sort of small deal thats insignificant. If you have a problem that can cause deaths be upfront about it and fix it. Risks are very small, but if you are in the drivers seat at the wrong time than odds dont matter much.

 

 

[bookie71]

The real test will be when the lawyers get through with Toyota, could really be bad.

[Myth465]

These just keep coming - http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6293IC20100310

[Guest kawikaho]

Let loose the floodgates!

[SharperDingaan]

 

Over the next 6 months why would you NOT expect to see a fall of at least another 25-35%?, esp once the costs of the recalls/damage control starts showing up on the financials. And at that level wouldn't you expect to see a little strong arming of domestic pension institutions?

 

Much too early yet.

 

SD

 

[arbitragr]

Would you buy a car that accelerates by itself??

[twacowfca]

Would you buy a car that accelerates by itself??

 

 

What you're really asking is: "Would you buy a car?"

 

A few weeks ago the WSJ ran an article with charts showing that reports of unexpected acceleration in Toyotas were no worse than for other car manufacturers until public awareness increased after the spectacular crash of the Lexus involving the upside down floormat.

 

Upon thorough investigation, the great majority of reports turn out to be operator error, although a case can often be made that the car maker didn't idiot proof the design as with the Lexus floormats.  A spectacular example was the avant guard design of the Audi accelerator that confused some drivers into thinking that they were depressing the brake.  That problem set them back so far that they never fully recovered market share.

 

Nevertheless, there are bona fide design flaws.  I once had an old Ford that would slip out of park into drive unexpectedly.  Now that's an interesting experience when you have just gotten out of the car with the motor running!

 

[Guest kawikaho]

http://jalopnik.com/5491101/

 

Smells like a fraudulent bullshitter to me!

[Guest kawikaho]

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columns/OpEd-Contributor/I-am-not-afraid-of-my-Toyota-Prius-87361597.html

 

/sarcasm 

 

Unleash the critics, I say!  Let's hammer TM's stock to affordable levels.

 

/

[Guest kawikaho]

http://www.forbes.com/2010/03/12/toyota-autos-hoax-media-opinions-contributors-michael-fumento.html?boxes=financechannelforbes

 

 

[beerbaron]

Journalists are always claiming that Twitter or Blogs are not reliable sources of informations because the people in those blogs don't do Due Diligence. I can give about 100 examples of mass journalistic events where no journalists did due diligence.

 

That's why I don't listen to journalist anymore, ESPECIALLY not the economic ones! Makes me wanna puke every time.

 

BeerBaron

[Guest kawikaho]

http://jalopnik.com/5492199/exclusive-ex+business-partner-claims-runaway-prius-driver-a-scammer

 

 

[calonego]

The only problem is that people don't understand what they are operating. You can't idiot proof everything.

Short of an electrical issue causing unwarranted acceleration (which would in no way cause the pedal to stick and doesn't seem to be the issue based on the evidence), I see no way this is the fault of Toyota.

 

The study showing that Toyotas have a similar "pedal stuck" issue as other makes is evidence of the lack of an issue.

 

So you have two problems - a pedal gets jammed by a floor mat, or a pedal return spring has a low probability of binding once worn.

Either problem can be fixed by putting your foot under the pedal and moving it (or crouching down and pulling it up... but do so at your own risk, I don't want you crashing because you took ten minutes to do it, or your belly got stuck under the steering wheel to be my "fault").

If you hit the brakes and heat them up too much without slowing down the vehicle (depressing too little or going on and off the brakes), the brakes will not work.

And how on earth would putting the car in neutral not work!?!

 

Anyone with a basic understanding of mechanics or engineering would see the stupidity of this entire production.

It is unfortunate that people have died.