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Folks, I am trying to understand this explanation.

 

he says CAPEX > depreciation … just means depressed earnings. How is that related to the net cash produced in the covid context remaining unchanged ? if anyone got that, a quick explanation would be appreciated.

 

thx

 

 

"Warren Buffett: (01:27:41)

It affects others much less. Our three major businesses of insurance and the BNSF railroad, railroad and our energy business, those are our three largest by some margin. They’re in a reasonably decent position. They will spend more than their depreciation. So some of the earnings will go, along with depreciation, will go toward increasing fixed assets.

Warren Buffett: (01:28:13)

But basically these businesses will produce cash even though their earnings decline somewhat. And if we’ll go to part two, at Berkshire, we keep ourselves in an extraordinary strong position. We’ll always do that—that’s just fundamental. We insure people. We’re a specialist to some extent and a leader. It’s not our main business, but we sell structured settlements. That means somebody gets in a terrible accident, usually an auto accident, and they’re going to require care for 10, 30, 50 years."

 

Greg Abel gives further context later in the meeting regarding BHE, towards the end, here is the entire context:

 

Greg, let me ask you one of these capital allocation questions. This one comes from [Matt Libel 00:03:16:53] and he says “Berkshire directed 46% of capital expenditure in 2019 to Berkshire Hathaway Energy. Can you walk us through with round numbers how you think differences in capex spending versus economic depreciation versus gap depreciation and help explain the timeframe over which we should recognize the contract of return on equity from these large investments, as we as shareholders are making in Berkshire Hathaway Energy?”

 

Greg Abel: (03:17:22)

So when we look at Berkshire Hathaway Energy and their capital programs, we try to really look at it as it was highlighted, really in a couple of different packages. One, what does it actually require to maintain the existing assets for the next 10 20 30 years i.e. it’s not incremental, it’s effectively maintaining the asset, the reflection of depreciation. And, our goal is always to clearly understand across our businesses, do we have businesses that require more than our depreciation or equal or less? And happy to say with the assets we have in place and how we’ve maintained the energy assets, we generally look at our depreciation as being more than adequate if we deploy it back into capital to maintain the asset. Now the unique thing in the lion’s share of our energy businesses that are regulated and that exceeds 85% of them, 83% of them, we still earn on that capital we deploy back into that business. So it’s not a traditional model where you’re putting it in, but you’re effectively putting it into maintain your existing earnings stream. So it’s not drastically different, but we do earn on that capital.

 

Greg Abel: (03:18:43)

But what we do spend a lot of time, and that’s what when Warren and I think about the substantial amounts of opportunities, that’s incremental capital that is truly needed within new opportunities. So it’s to build incremental wind, incremental transmission, that services the wind or other types of renewable, solar. That’s all incremental to the business and drives incremental both growth in the business. It does require capital, but it does drive growth within the energy business. So there’s really the two buckets. I think we would use a number a little bit lower than the depreciation. We’re comfortable the business can be maintained at that level and as we deploy amounts above that, we really do view that as quote incremental or growth CapEX.

 

Warren Buffett: (03:19:33)

Yeah, we have what, 40 billion or something? What do we have in sort of kind of in the works?

 

Greg Abel: (03:19:42)

So we have basically, as Warren’s highlighting 40 billion in the works of capital. That’s over the next effectively nine years, 10 year period, a little approximately half of that we would view as maintaining our assets. A little more than half of it’s truly incremental. And those are known projects we’re going to move forward with. And I would be happy to report, we probably have another thirty billion that aren’t far off of becoming real opportunities in that business.

 

Greg Abel: (03:20:16)

As Warren said, that it takes a lot of time. It’s a lot of work. The transmission projects, for example, we’re finishing in 2020, were initiated in 2008 when we bought Pacific Corp. I remember working on that transmission plan, putting it together, thinking “Six to eight years from now, we’ll, we’ll have them in operation.” 12 years later and over that period of time we earned on that capital, we have invested and then when it comes into service, we earn on the whole amount. So we’re very pleased with the opportunity, but we plant a lot of seeds, put it that way.

 

Warren Buffett: (03:20:48)

Yeah. And these are not, it’s not like they’re super high return thing, they’re decent returns over time. And we’re almost uniquely situated to deploy the capital. As opposed, you could have government entities do it too, but, but in terms of the private enterprise. And they take a long time, they earn decent returns. I’ve always said about the energy business, it’s not a way to get real rich, but it’s a way to stay real rich.

 

Warren Buffett: (03:21:23)

And we will deploy a lot of money at decent returns, not super returns. You shouldn’t earn super returns on that sort of thing. I mean, you are getting rights to do certain things that governmental authorities are authorizing and that they should protect consumers, but they also should protect people that put up the capital. And, it’s worked now for 20 years and it’s got a long runway ahead.

 

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Folks, I am trying to understand this explanation.

 

he says CAPEX > depreciation … just means depressed earnings. How is that related to the net cash produced in the covid context remaining unchanged ? if anyone got that, a quick explanation would be appreciated.

 

thx

 

 

"Warren Buffett: (01:27:41)

It affects others much less. Our three major businesses of insurance and the BNSF railroad, railroad and our energy business, those are our three largest by some margin. They’re in a reasonably decent position. They will spend more than their depreciation. So some of the earnings will go, along with depreciation, will go toward increasing fixed assets.

Warren Buffett: (01:28:13)

But basically these businesses will produce cash even though their earnings decline somewhat. And if we’ll go to part two, at Berkshire, we keep ourselves in an extraordinary strong position. We’ll always do that—that’s just fundamental. We insure people. We’re a specialist to some extent and a leader. It’s not our main business, but we sell structured settlements. That means somebody gets in a terrible accident, usually an auto accident, and they’re going to require care for 10, 30, 50 years."

 

My personal interpretation: he meant that earnings will be depressed relative to new capex because it takes time to ramp up the new capex (esp. in those industries). It's like building an extension to your property. You can still enjoy the fruits of your existing property, but you will have to fork out capital for your extension which may take some time to be up and running. However, your existing property is cash generative.

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I think Greg is a safe pair of hands and a humble guy who won't go on an ego trip if he became #1. Given the size of the empire that Buffett has assembled that isn't the worst thing in the world. He will probably make sure the businesses continue to run well and make sensible bolt-on acquisitions. But it is difficult to imagine him stepping into Warren's shoes and making transformative acquisitions that really move the needle for Berkshire. I assume that is where Ted and Todd are expected to contribute more but it is a big step up from being hedge fund investors. Perhaps the idea is the three of them work together?

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I think Greg is a safe pair of hands and a humble guy who won't go on an ego trip if he became #1. Given the size of the empire that Buffett has assembled that isn't the worst thing in the world. He will probably make sure the businesses continue to run well and make sensible bolt-on acquisitions. But it is difficult to imagine him stepping into Warren's shoes and making transformative acquisitions that really move the needle for Berkshire. I assume that is where Ted and Todd are expected to contribute more but it is a big step up from being hedge fund investors. Perhaps the idea is the three of them work together?

 

Thinking the same. I doubt the committee type management. There will be one person in charge. He can get opinions from the other two but will make decisions. If I had to guess, Todd. He’s going through OJT at Geico, JPM, Haven etc.

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If you can read past the normal fluff optimism I think this was the most bearish Buffett has been. Heck, he started out the meeting talking about comparisons to the Great Depression. Combine that with the fact he has essentially bought nothing so far I think that tells you all you need to know.

 

I also liked this set up for Q&A much more, the quality of the discussion was soo much better. The only truly dumb question was the one from the guy that didn't know you could convert A shares to B shares.

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If you can read past the normal fluff optimism I think this was the most bearish Buffett has been. Heck, he started out the meeting talking about comparisons to the Great Depression. Combine that with the fact he has essentially bought nothing so far I think that tells you all you need to know.

 

I also liked this set up for Q&A much more, the quality of the discussion was soo much better. The only truly dumb question was the one from the guy that didn't know you could convert A shares to B shares.

 

But he also said that unlike the 25 years of going nowhere from 1929 to 1954, the Fed now has FDIC and other tools. I actually got the opposite impression that it will be much shorter than a 25 year depression because of what the government is doing.

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If you can read past the normal fluff optimism I think this was the most bearish Buffett has been. Heck, he started out the meeting talking about comparisons to the Great Depression. Combine that with the fact he has essentially bought nothing so far I think that tells you all you need to know.

 

I also liked this set up for Q&A much more, the quality of the discussion was soo much better. The only truly dumb question was the one from the guy that didn't know you could convert A shares to B shares.

 

 

Yes, I must say that I did not at all miss the BS from previous years where adults write a question and get their 11 year-old to go to the microphone to ask it.

 

 

SJ

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If you can read past the normal fluff optimism I think this was the most bearish Buffett has been. Heck, he started out the meeting talking about comparisons to the Great Depression. Combine that with the fact he has essentially bought nothing so far I think that tells you all you need to know.

 

I also liked this set up for Q&A much more, the quality of the discussion was soo much better. The only truly dumb question was the one from the guy that didn't know you could convert A shares to B shares.

 

But he also said that unlike the 25 years of going nowhere from 1929 to 1954, the Fed now has FDIC and other tools. I actually got the opposite impression that it will be much shorter than a 25 year depression because of what the government is doing.

 

Exactly right. He also said he expected inflation, which would be rather a different outcome.

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If you can read past the normal fluff optimism I think this was the most bearish Buffett has been. Heck, he started out the meeting talking about comparisons to the Great Depression. Combine that with the fact he has essentially bought nothing so far I think that tells you all you need to know.

 

I also liked this set up for Q&A much more, the quality of the discussion was soo much better. The only truly dumb question was the one from the guy that didn't know you could convert A shares to B shares.

 

But he also said that unlike the 25 years of going nowhere from 1929 to 1954, the Fed now has FDIC and other tools. I actually got the opposite impression that it will be much shorter than a 25 year depression because of what the government is doing.

 

Exactly right. He also said he expected inflation, which would be rather a different outcome.

 

I happen to think an inflationary depression is pretty much the same as a deflationary depression )

But at least the Dow or SP or whatever will go up, just not as fast as all your costs.

 

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If you can read past the normal fluff optimism I think this was the most bearish Buffett has been. Heck, he started out the meeting talking about comparisons to the Great Depression. Combine that with the fact he has essentially bought nothing so far I think that tells you all you need to know.

 

I also liked this set up for Q&A much more, the quality of the discussion was soo much better. The only truly dumb question was the one from the guy that didn't know you could convert A shares to B shares.

 

But he also said that unlike the 25 years of going nowhere from 1929 to 1954, the Fed now has FDIC and other tools. I actually got the opposite impression that it will be much shorter than a 25 year depression because of what the government is doing.

 

Exactly right. He also said he expected inflation, which would be rather a different outcome.

 

I happen to think an inflationary depression is pretty much the same as a deflationary depression )

But at least the Dow or SP or whatever will go up, just not as fast as all your costs.

 

They are VERY different in terms of how you want to be positioned beforehand, especially wrt debt.

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If you can read past the normal fluff optimism I think this was the most bearish Buffett has been. Heck, he started out the meeting talking about comparisons to the Great Depression. Combine that with the fact he has essentially bought nothing so far I think that tells you all you need to know.

 

I also liked this set up for Q&A much more, the quality of the discussion was soo much better. The only truly dumb question was the one from the guy that didn't know you could convert A shares to B shares.

 

But he also said that unlike the 25 years of going nowhere from 1929 to 1954, the Fed now has FDIC and other tools. I actually got the opposite impression that it will be much shorter than a 25 year depression because of what the government is doing.

 

Exactly right. He also said he expected inflation, which would be rather a different outcome.

 

I happen to think an inflationary depression is pretty much the same as a deflationary depression )

But at least the Dow or SP or whatever will go up, just not as fast as all your costs.

 

 

Actually, my take is that an inflationary depression is probably a bit easier to manage.  Labour prices (wages) tend to be sticky downwards, and minimum wages in particular are sticky downwards.  At least with an inflationary depression, you the real price of labour gets inflated away, which enables firms to consider hiring more people.  Similarly, in a deflationary environment, there is a disincentive to spend immediately while in an inflationary environment you are better off to convert your cash into goods immediately.  We probably don't want to experience either of those, but if I were forced to choose....

 

 

SJ

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If you can read past the normal fluff optimism I think this was the most bearish Buffett has been. Heck, he started out the meeting talking about comparisons to the Great Depression. Combine that with the fact he has essentially bought nothing so far I think that tells you all you need to know.

 

I also liked this set up for Q&A much more, the quality of the discussion was soo much better. The only truly dumb question was the one from the guy that didn't know you could convert A shares to B shares.

 

But he also said that unlike the 25 years of going nowhere from 1929 to 1954, the Fed now has FDIC and other tools. I actually got the opposite impression that it will be much shorter than a 25 year depression because of what the government is doing.

 

I guess if you were thinking this would be a 25 year depression than yes Buffetts comments were optimistic. But if you were thinking this would be a V Shape recovery or some small speed bump in the economy than his comments comparing us to the Great Depression are very bearish.

 

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If you can read past the normal fluff optimism I think this was the most bearish Buffett has been. Heck, he started out the meeting talking about comparisons to the Great Depression. Combine that with the fact he has essentially bought nothing so far I think that tells you all you need to know.

 

I also liked this set up for Q&A much more, the quality of the discussion was soo much better. The only truly dumb question was the one from the guy that didn't know you could convert A shares to B shares.

 

But he also said that unlike the 25 years of going nowhere from 1929 to 1954, the Fed now has FDIC and other tools. I actually got the opposite impression that it will be much shorter than a 25 year depression because of what the government is doing.

 

Exactly right. He also said he expected inflation, which would be rather a different outcome.

 

I happen to think an inflationary depression is pretty much the same as a deflationary depression )

But at least the Dow or SP or whatever will go up, just not as fast as all your costs.

 

 

Actually, my take is that an inflationary depression is probably a bit easier to manage.  Labour prices (wages) tend to be sticky downwards, and minimum wages in particular are sticky downwards.  At least with an inflationary depression, you the real price of labour gets inflated away, which enables firms to consider hiring more people.  Similarly, in a deflationary environment, there is a disincentive to spend immediately while in an inflationary environment you are better off to convert your cash into goods immediately.  We probably don't want to experience either of those, but if I were forced to choose....

 

 

SJ

 

Given everything we are seeing today, is it not likely that we see mild deflation in the US moving forward? This has been the trend in Japan for the past decade and Europe in recent years? Oil at $20 will be deflationary (lower input costs). Massive unemployment. Massive number of business bankruptcies. Double digit negative GDP growth. Falling consumer spending and business investment. Worldwide recession. Strong US$. Long bond yields at historic lows. Debt to GDP levels back to historic highs. Higher taxes in 2021 (likely).

 

What will cause inflation in the near term? War perhaps? Other?

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If you can read past the normal fluff optimism I think this was the most bearish Buffett has been. Heck, he started out the meeting talking about comparisons to the Great Depression. Combine that with the fact he has essentially bought nothing so far I think that tells you all you need to know.

 

I also liked this set up for Q&A much more, the quality of the discussion was soo much better. The only truly dumb question was the one from the guy that didn't know you could convert A shares to B shares.

 

But he also said that unlike the 25 years of going nowhere from 1929 to 1954, the Fed now has FDIC and other tools. I actually got the opposite impression that it will be much shorter than a 25 year depression because of what the government is doing.

 

Exactly right. He also said he expected inflation, which would be rather a different outcome.

 

I happen to think an inflationary depression is pretty much the same as a deflationary depression )

But at least the Dow or SP or whatever will go up, just not as fast as all your costs.

 

 

Actually, my take is that an inflationary depression is probably a bit easier to manage.  Labour prices (wages) tend to be sticky downwards, and minimum wages in particular are sticky downwards.  At least with an inflationary depression, you the real price of labour gets inflated away, which enables firms to consider hiring more people.  Similarly, in a deflationary environment, there is a disincentive to spend immediately while in an inflationary environment you are better off to convert your cash into goods immediately.  We probably don't want to experience either of those, but if I were forced to choose....

 

 

SJ

 

Given everything we are seeing today, is it not likely that we see mild deflation in the US moving forward? This has been the trend in Japan for the past decade and Europe in recent years? Oil at $20 will be deflationary (lower input costs). Massive unemployment. Massive number of business bankruptcies. Double digit negative GDP growth. Falling consumer spending and business investment. Worldwide recession. Strong US$. Long bond yields at historic lows. Debt to GDP levels back to historic highs. Higher taxes in 2021 (likely).

 

What will cause inflation in the near term? War perhaps? Other?

 

 

The theoretical cause of inflation would be the rapid expansion of high-powered money and the elimination of bank reserve requirements.  Will it work, or does conservatism at banks and a lower velocity of money off-set the expansion of the monetary base?  Time will tell.

 

SJ

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  I can foresee a scenario where you get mild deflation followed by moderate to high inflation. Initially a combination of excess capacity and weak demand not to mention low energy and commodity prices is pretty deflationary. But demand will recover faster than supply and I think that there are likely to be supply constraints in the future as resilience will take precedence over efficiency and companies are too busy deleveraging to invest in new capacity etc and government is also budget constrained so unable to invest in necessary infrastructure etc. Also energy prices will probably go up after the shakedown because some production will be permanently lost or require much higher prospective returns to get back online.

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I can also envision mild deflation followed by inflation. As deflation starts to set in the government will start to panic. These is a risk the Treasury will want to do whatever is necessary to get the economy going including dropping money directly to consumers. Hoisington/Hunt says watch the Treasury (not the Fed). The Fed is somewhat restricted by laws what it can do.

 

It will be interesting to see what Trump/Treasury decide to do if we do not get a V shaped recovery in the coming months. Helicopter money right before the election? I would be surprised if Trump did not do it.

 

—————————

In my post above i also forgot to mention how technology is also driving deflation. Look at falling expense ratios in banking, the disruption in retail etc... the move to online is only accelerating. Yes, technology is a growth industry. However, my guess is the disruption and the job losses is many industries is much larger. Net effect is it is deflationary to the economy as a whole.

 

And you can also look at it from a country perspective. The US is the big winner with most of the technology jobs happening there (Amazon, Alphabet, Faccebook, Apple etc). Other countries lose jobs as those platforms expand internationally.

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There is already some solid evidence of short term deflation. The CPI was down a lot in March vs February for instance (much of it attributable to lower energy prices).

 

Anecdotally though grocery prices have gone up a lot recently, and we are also starting to see workers publicly demand higher wages via strikes and such. I take those as potential early signs of inflation.

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I can also envision mild deflation followed by inflation. As deflation starts to set in the government will start to panic. These is a risk the Treasury will want to do whatever is necessary to get the economy going including dropping money directly to consumers. Hoisington/Hunt says watch the Treasury (not the Fed). The Fed is somewhat restricted by laws what it can do.

 

It will be interesting to see what Trump/Treasury decide to do if we do not get a V shaped recovery in the coming months. Helicopter money right before the election? I would be surprised if Trump did not do it.

 

—————————

In my post above i also forgot to mention how technology is also driving deflation. Look at falling expense ratios in banking, the disruption in retail etc... the move to online is only accelerating. Yes, technology is a growth industry. However, my guess is the disruption and the job losses is many industries is much larger. Net effect is it is deflationary to the economy as a whole.

 

And you can also look at it from a country perspective. The US is the big winner with most of the technology jobs happening there (Amazon, Alphabet, Faccebook, Apple etc). Other countries lose jobs as those platforms expand internationally.

 

You are forgetting about all the jobs created by technology such as

 

Official Twitter Troll

Career Instagram Models with sub 10k followers

Aspiring Michelin star food critics

Carole Baskins Tik Tok Creators

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That was much better than expected. He sounded well and sharp, questions were well selected, we even got one from Bill Murray.

 

I too heard a lot of bearish dog whistle. Especially that remark about him not wanting to talk about certain scenarios because he thinks he might increase the probability of them materializing if he does...

 

Meanwhile many of the media headlines are (predictably) upbeat:

 

- WSJ: Warren Buffett Says ‘American Magic’ to Overcome Virus Uncertainty

- CNBC: Buffett says economy will beat virus: ‘Nothing can basically stop America’

- USA Today: Buffett tells investors to 'Bet on America,' buying stocks for long-term gain

 

The market reaction to this should be fun to watch.

 

I skimmed that article after the meeting. I couldn't believe the spin it took on the meeting. The WSJ watched a very different meeting than the one I saw.

 

I’ve learned to pay attention to such discrepancies. Sometimes you can almost smell an agenda...

 

Anyway ARS got it right:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/03/business/dealbook/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway.html

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There is already some solid evidence of short term deflation. The CPI was down a lot in March vs February for instance (much of it attributable to lower energy prices).

 

Anecdotally though grocery prices have gone up a lot recently, and we are also starting to see workers publicly demand higher wages via strikes and such. I take those as potential early signs of inflation.

 

Yes, the data the next 6 months will be very interesting. Regarding wages, if unemployment hits +15% and we do not get a V shaped recovery then my guess is wage growth will slow over time as expectations fall.

 

Currently, grocers are having to pay a premium to attract and keep workers during the pandemic. This will likely be true for all occupations where employees are put at a health risk.

 

I also see a scenario where business that re-open have to charge higher prices because their revenue is lower (due to social distancing requirements) and their expenses are higher (due to PPE they need to source for staff).

 

Crazy stew of unknowable factors right now. Business owners must be going crazy trying to figure out what to do and how it all might play out...

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There is already some solid evidence of short term deflation. The CPI was down a lot in March vs February for instance (much of it attributable to lower energy prices).

 

Anecdotally though grocery prices have gone up a lot recently, and we are also starting to see workers publicly demand higher wages via strikes and such. I take those as potential early signs of inflation.

 

Yes, the data the next 6 months will be very interesting. Regarding wages, if unemployment hits +15% and we do not get a V shaped recovery then my guess is wage growth will slow over time as expectations fall.

 

Currently, grocers are having to pay a premium to attract and keep workers during the pandemic. This will likely be true for all occupations where employees are put at a health risk.

 

I also see a scenario where business that re-open have to charge higher prices because their revenue is lower (due to social distancing requirements) and their expenses are higher (due to PPE they need to source for staff).

 

Crazy stew of unknowable factors right now. Business owners must be going crazy trying to figure out what to do and how it all might play out...

 

Right, and the supply side disruptions make stagflation a very real possibility. That will test the Fed’s independence like nothing else.

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Yes, the data the next 6 months will be very interesting. Regarding wages, if unemployment hits +15% and we do not get a V shaped recovery then my guess is wage growth will slow over time as expectations fall.

 

Currently, grocers are having to pay a premium to attract and keep workers during the pandemic. This will likely be true for all occupations where employees are put at a health risk.

 

I also see a scenario where business that re-open have to charge higher prices because their revenue is lower (due to social distancing requirements) and their expenses are higher (due to PPE they need to source for staff).

 

Crazy stew of unknowable factors right now. Business owners must be going crazy trying to figure out what to do and how it all might play out...

 

I received a survey from a theater that I like in Dallas called Alamo Drafthouse (it's like Studio Movie Grill, basically they serve food & drinks while you watch your movie) that asked how we would feel about things like (a) two ticket minimums, (b) a minimum guarantee on food & drink orders, etc. Basically making sure that it's worth it for them to open again.

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Yes, the data the next 6 months will be very interesting. Regarding wages, if unemployment hits +15% and we do not get a V shaped recovery then my guess is wage growth will slow over time as expectations fall.

 

Currently, grocers are having to pay a premium to attract and keep workers during the pandemic. This will likely be true for all occupations where employees are put at a health risk.

 

I also see a scenario where business that re-open have to charge higher prices because their revenue is lower (due to social distancing requirements) and their expenses are higher (due to PPE they need to source for staff).

 

Crazy stew of unknowable factors right now. Business owners must be going crazy trying to figure out what to do and how it all might play out...

 

I received a survey from a theater that I like in Dallas called Alamo Drafthouse (it's like Studio Movie Grill, basically they serve food & drinks while you watch your movie) that asked how we would feel about things like (a) two ticket minimums, (b) a minimum guarantee on food & drink orders, etc. Basically making sure that it's worth it for them to open again.

 

What do you feel about the questions they asked?

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