Will S&P500 retest the March Lows (comparison April 20 to April 3)

[matts]

I wanted to redo the poll posted by Viking on April 3 just to see how the consensus has changed. The low of March 23rd is also a much bigger drop from today than it was in early April. 

 

Thank you for voting.

 

for reference here is the results of that poll as of today

 

Yes - High Conviction      26 (19.4%)

Yes - Low Conviction      50 (37.3%)

Neutral (no opinion or no idea)  42 (31.3%)

No - Low Conviction          7 (5.2%)

No - High Conviction        9 (6.7%)

[LC]

I changed my vote from (Yes - LC) to (No-LC)

 

The reason being is deaths have not continued to exponentially skyrocket. I think the market participants are intelligent enough to understand there will be financial consequences over the next 1-3 Qs and this has been 'baked in', along with global financial stimulus.

[wescobrk]

Nothing new but Marks is getting louder about how the market is overvalued

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/widely-followed-investor-howard-marks-says-the-stock-market-rebound-is-not-reflecting-reality.html

[buffetteer1984]

He also mentioned during the interview that an 8% difference from the time he published the memo has turned him relatively bullish to now more cautious.  This doesn't exactly scream someone with a long term perspective.

 

Nothing new but Marks is getting louder about how the market is overvalued

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/widely-followed-investor-howard-marks-says-the-stock-market-rebound-is-not-reflecting-reality.html

[Gregmal]

He also mentioned during the interview that an 8% difference from the time he published the memo has turned him relatively bullish to now more cautious.  This doesn't exactly scream someone with a long term perspective.

 

Nothing new but Marks is getting louder about how the market is overvalued

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/widely-followed-investor-howard-marks-says-the-stock-market-rebound-is-not-reflecting-reality.html

 

LOL yea. Marks has changed his mind now probably 4-5 times in the past 3 weeks. I agree the indexes look a little odd at these levels but stranger things have happened. Everyone is currently a short term trader and market timer. The overwhelming fixation? What is the market goes down, OMG?! Well isn't that part of investing in the stock market?

[thowed]

Ha - yes I can't keep up with whether Marks is bullish or bearish this week...

[valueinvestor]

Ha - yes I can't keep up with whether Marks is bullish or bearish this week...

 

I think that's the hallmark of a great investor - if people have not changed your mind for the last three to four weeks in varying degrees, I would be surprised because more new information is coming to light.

 

Secondly, Mark did not turn his tune about the market, that's the media's fault for misinterpreting what he said. He finds that it is sensible to purchase at this point if the equity in question is cheap, other than that - wait.

[thowed]

I think that's the hallmark of a great investor

 

Absolutely, I was mostly being flippant. 

 

I think it's just unfortunate that many of us look for a quick 'takeaway' from each new memo, and when they're coming out so frequently, the message is getting a bit mixed.  I imagine that he's doing the memos more to help himself think, but the speed of them means they're perhaps of less interest to readers than usual.

 

But of course there can't be many times in our careers than right now when crazy new data is appearing every day which might make you reassess your position.

 

[nspo]

With how overheated we were coming into this it looks like some names could continue to sell-off. A lot of more expensive names haven't even reached levels previously deemed attractive (<20x fcf back in 2018). However, some things are egregiously mispriced. On my end, I'm seeing the return of active investing. Big moats and a bunch of small caps trading at uber high fcf yields are being thrown out with the bathwater. (famous last words!)

[Jurgis]

Big moats ... trading at uber high fcf yields

 

Care to share which ones?

[nspo]

Yeah, I probably shouldn't have left that so vague.

-I loaded up the truck on FB at around $150. By my estimate, it was trading at 13-14x forward fcf, still has a large runway with very sticky products (maybe next $1t business?).

-I'm waiting for a fill on OTCM which lists pink sheet and over the counter stocks/information provider. They're trading at my estimate of roughly 15x fcf, large addressable market, and growing like a weed.

-Bery shouldn't get too dinged by this debacle, pretty secure end-users and nice history of rolling up the space, trading at a big yield and IMO better quality than a lot of businesses out there.

-Fonar is a MRI company that both manages and acquires MRI facilities and sells machines. Not sure how to judge the benefits of their upright machines vs. comps but figure that with a near 20% fcf yield cash-adjusted, growing, good ROE's and $30m net cash that they will weather the storm. The management arm has nice recurring cash flows that are signed under contracts with radiologists.

 

BTW, I didn't necessarily mean that the big moats are coupled with the high yields if I didn't make that clear initially. 

 

 

[Jurgis]

Yeah, I probably shouldn't have left that so vague.

-I loaded up the truck on FB at around $150. By my estimate, it was trading at 13-14x forward fcf, still has a large runway with very sticky products (maybe next $1t business?).

-I'm waiting for a fill on OTCM which lists pink sheet and over the counter stocks/information provider. They're trading at my estimate of roughly 15x fcf, large addressable market, and growing like a weed.

-Bery shouldn't get too dinged by this debacle, pretty secure end-users and nice history of rolling up the space, trading at a big yield and IMO better quality than a lot of businesses out there.

-Fonar is a MRI company that both manages and acquires MRI facilities and sells machines. Not sure how to judge the benefits of their upright machines vs. comps but figure that with a near 20% fcf yield cash-adjusted, growing, good ROE's and $30m net cash that they will weather the storm. The management arm has nice recurring cash flows that are signed under contracts with radiologists.

 

BTW, I didn't necessarily mean that the big moats are coupled with the high yields if I didn't make that clear initially.

 

OK, thanks.

Agreed on FB.

[nspo]

Anytime! Are you seeing any standouts on your end aside from FB??

[Jurgis]

Anytime! Are you seeing any standouts on your end aside from FB??

 

Not much. That's why I asked you. :)

 

There were more at March lows. I haven't bought much since then. Some CVS and STNE.