Jurgis Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 But I think the ones in severe need of a fresh pair of pants are the superinvestors of indexville that have advanced strategies designed by robo advisers with flashy websites. Why? Anyone who has been indexing and continues to DCA and index will do quite well. Possibly better than high percentage of people from CoBF (as we have seen with past polls).
rb Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 But I think the ones in severe need of a fresh pair of pants are the superinvestors of indexville that have advanced strategies designed by robo advisers with flashy websites. Why? Anyone who has been indexing and continues to DCA and index will do quite well. Possibly better than high percentage of people from CoBF (as we have seen with past polls). Most of them wont.
John Hjorth Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 But I think the ones in severe need of a fresh pair of pants are the superinvestors of indexville that have advanced strategies designed by robo advisers with flashy websites. Why? Anyone who has been indexing and continues to DCA and index will do quite well. Possibly better than high percentage of people from CoBF (as we have seen with past polls). Most of them wont. Interesting take & exchange. As a CoBF stock picker, have you done your homework [basically] ? [Naturally, time will tell.]
Spekulatius Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 I am not afraid of the stock declines, but I didn’t sleep well this night (first time) and worried about two things : 1) Health my family and elderly parents. My live in Germany and are around 80 years old, prime targets for the Virus so to speak. Same for my mother in law who live on the Bay Area, CA, which is already crazytown. 2) I am concerned about a deep recession and possibly the financial system cracking. Today’s Fed action was very telling as it seems that banks or other actors are short on cash. We saw already Boeing drawing down their credit lines as an indicator and financials falling like they go outmoded business next week. Looks just like September/ October 2008 to me. I bet banks need all the liquidity right they can get. Same with the energy sector which looks doomed to me and will have many companies blowing up, including perhaps some integrated second Tier players. Was a net seller of stocks today (sold in the mini bump following the Fed announcement ). Not fun. The only sale that Made Green was from my Tequilla Stock (CUERVO.MX) and that stock isn’t even cheap.
Castanza Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 I am not afraid of the stock declines, but I didn’t sleep well this night (first time) and worried about two things : 1) Health my family and elderly parents. My live in Germany and are around 80 years old, prime targets for the Virus so to speak. Same for my mother in law who live on the Bay Area, CA, which is already crazytown. 2) I am concerned about a deep recession and possibly the financial system cracking. Today’s Fed action was very telling as it seems that banks or other actors are short on cash. We saw already Boeing drawing down their credit lines as an indicator and financials falling like they go outmoded business next week. Looks just like September/ October 2008 to me. I bet banks need all the liquidity right they can get. Same with the energy sector which looks doomed to me and will have many companies blowing up, including perhaps some integrated second Tier players. Was a net seller of stocks today (sold in the mini bump following the Fed announcement ). Not fun. The only sale that Made Green was from my Tequilla Stock (CUERVO.MX) and that stock isn’t even cheap. What percentage of cash are you sitting on? Definitely not easy selling stuff for loss.
Spekulatius Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 What percentage of cash are you sitting on? Definitely not easy selling stuff for loss. Cash is roughly 30%. I have various accounts to, I don’t keep track of it too closely. I was at 50% when I went bananas selling more than aweigh about, but then bought back too early. Should have just sat it out. I am Down less than 20% from the peak, but it it feels bad enough. The stock sales are clearly liquidity & index selling driven, so my thesis is that there will be amazing bargains available at some point.
jeffsreng Posted March 12, 2020 Author Posted March 12, 2020 What percentage of cash are you sitting on? Definitely not easy selling stuff for loss. Cash is roughly 30%. I have various accounts to, I don’t keep track of it too closely. I was at 50% when I went bananas selling more than aweigh about, but then bought back too early. Should have just sat it out. I am Down less than 20% from the peak, but it it feels bad enough. The stock sales are clearly liquidity & index selling driven, so my thesis is that there will be amazing bargains available at some point. Look at 100 years of copper prices to get some clues.
Spekulatius Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 What percentage of cash are you sitting on? Definitely not easy selling stuff for loss. Cash is roughly 30%. I have various accounts to, I don’t keep track of it too closely. I was at 50% when I went bananas selling more than aweigh about, but then bought back too early. Should have just sat it out. I am Down less than 20% from the peak, but it it feels bad enough. The stock sales are clearly liquidity & index selling driven, so my thesis is that there will be amazing bargains available at some point. Look at 100 year copper prices to get some clues. Oh, the Dr Copper thesis? I guess we still have a lot of air underneath Cu prices, as they were below $1/pound for long periods of time., but I am not sure if that what you are referring too.
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