Energy Sector

[Gregmal]

Was this just some roundabout way to steal the SOH...cuz starting a war, and then using the counterparty's response to then militarily seize the asset and then charge tolls is......a bit out there lmfao 

[SharperDingaan]

Sometime around the end of this month the US runs out of SPR reserves. Cushing (heavy oil) is already at below minimum level, with what's left as primarily sludge. Per the below, the four weeks is up Friday this week; assuming most of the SOH leakage over the last few weeks was US bound, give it another two weeks or so ... end of July.

 

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5928618-iran-deal-oil-reserves-g7/

 

VZ heavy oil supply is still very limited, Russian is essentially now only for domestic use; leaving mostly just Mexican and Canadian. And the US formally advising that it wants out of CUSMA ...... the art of the deal.

 

The SOH now economically locked solid, and the Red Sea under attack, there will be a lot less leakage covering shortfalls. There will soon need to be a 2nd coordinated global SPR release, and China will be reentering the market in the coming months. 

 

Absent a sudden change; one has to think that the line ups at the pump start happening by around late August through mid September, maybe earlier. 

 

Israeli elections are 27-October, with Netanyahu projected to lose. US midterm elections a week later, on 03-November, with Republicans projected to lose the house. Potentially, ground breaking change in 3-4 months, with Israeli results bleeding into the US outcome.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Israeli_legislative_election

https://www.britannica.com/event/2026-US-midterm-elections

 

Hang on for the ride 

 

SD

Edited Monday at 10:30 PM by SharperDingaan

[Spekulatius]

10 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

Only the US (The Guardian Of The Homuz Strait) .... can be this warped 

 

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-us-iran-attacks-kuwait/

“The U.S.A. will be, from this point forward, known as ’THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT’, but as such, and as a matter of FAIRNESS, will be reimbursed, at the rate of 20% on all cargo shipped.”

 

The Iranians charge maybe USD 3/bbl (high) ... or 4% on a USD 75/bbl; the US charges 20%. The strait is now guaranteed to remain closed, and the Gulf incentivized to support Iranian tolling of the strait instead.  

 

SD

May be he didn’t take his meds today. I would not worry to much, tomorrow is Taco Don Tuesday.

[SharperDingaan]

One could not make this sh1te up  ....

It is still illegal, unenforceable, 20% of the cargo value, and the Iranians have proposed to toll for 80% less ... The SOH remain locked, Red Sea egress remains threatened, and global reserves continue to drain.

 

"U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday backtracked on plans to charge ships for using the Strait of Hormuz, saying Gulf countries would instead invest in the United States." 

 

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-us-iran-war-strait-of-hormuz-2/

 

SD

Edited 20 hours ago by SharperDingaan

[Artha158]

4D Chess. 

[SharperDingaan]

Fairly good summation of the SOH tolling 'thing'  ......

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Trumps-Hormuz-Toll-Could-Upend-Global-Energy-Trade.html

 

'Imposing a charge equivalent to one-fifth of the cargo’s value would achieve almost exactly the opposite. It would transform a temporary geopolitical disruption into a permanent structural cost, replacing the risk of an Iranian blockade with an American toll that could be just as damaging to energy markets. After spending enormous political, military and financial resources trying to preserve freedom of navigation, Washington would effectively begin charging the world for the freedom it claims to have restored.'

 

'The resulting levy on oil and gas could therefore approach $115 billion per year under fairly moderate assumptions, before including petrochemicals, fertilizers, containerized goods and other commercial cargo. This would not be a conventional shipping toll based on the cost of providing a service or maintaining infrastructure. It would be an ad valorem charge on some of the most important commodity flows in the global economy.'

 

'Washington would effectively be asserting that military protection of an international shipping route creates a right to collect a percentage of the goods passing through it. That principle would have implications far beyond the Gulf. If naval protection creates a right to tax commercial cargo, other military powers could make similar claims around contested maritime routes. The distinction between securing freedom of navigation and monetizing control over navigation would become dangerously blurred.'

 

'The direct 20% payment would therefore be only the beginning. War-risk insurance premiums would remain elevated, while shipowners could demand additional compensation for crews and vessels entering the region. Financing costs would increase because cargoes exposed to possible seizure, delayed payment or changing regulations would become riskier collateral. Traders would build larger margins into contracts, and buyers would seek supplies from routes not subject to arbitrary charges.'

 

One has to be truly gifted to f*** ** this badly  Gasoline prices have already begun to reflect the now higher crude prices; it is only a matter of time until US refineries start failing (running at capacity, no maintenance shutdowns), China has already further scaled back its refining, and the Saudi East West pipeline terminals at Yanbu are very vulnerable. Houthis don't have to destroy, continually damage enough to progressively reduce throughput .... is good enough.

 

Of course ...... most would expect Orange Boy to do whatever he can to lower gasoline prices, and the speculative community to squeeze US inventories as much as possible. Rising volatility, rapid change, pending mid-terms, and an 80 year old dealing with the pressure ..... what could possibly go wrong   

 

SD