Energy Sector

[Gregmal]

Was this just some roundabout way to steal the SOH...cuz starting a war, and then using the counterparty's response to then militarily seize the asset and then charge tolls is......a bit out there lmfao 

[SharperDingaan]

Sometime around the end of this month the US runs out of SPR reserves. Cushing (heavy oil) is already at below minimum level, with what's left as primarily sludge. Per the below, the four weeks is up Friday this week; assuming most of the SOH leakage over the last few weeks was US bound, give it another two weeks or so ... end of July.

 

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5928618-iran-deal-oil-reserves-g7/

 

VZ heavy oil supply is still very limited, Russian is essentially now only for domestic use; leaving mostly just Mexican and Canadian. And the US formally advising that it wants out of CUSMA ...... the art of the deal.

 

The SOH now economically locked solid, and the Red Sea under attack, there will be a lot less leakage covering shortfalls. There will soon need to be a 2nd coordinated global SPR release, and China will be reentering the market in the coming months. 

 

Absent a sudden change; one has to think that the line ups at the pump start happening by around late August through mid September, maybe earlier. 

 

Israeli elections are 27-October, with Netanyahu projected to lose. US midterm elections a week later, on 03-November, with Republicans projected to lose the house. Potentially, ground breaking change in 3-4 months, with Israeli results bleeding into the US outcome.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Israeli_legislative_election

https://www.britannica.com/event/2026-US-midterm-elections

 

Hang on for the ride 

 

SD

Edited 4 hours ago by SharperDingaan

[Spekulatius]

10 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

Only the US (The Guardian Of The Homuz Strait) .... can be this warped 

 

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-us-iran-attacks-kuwait/

“The U.S.A. will be, from this point forward, known as ’THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT’, but as such, and as a matter of FAIRNESS, will be reimbursed, at the rate of 20% on all cargo shipped.”

 

The Iranians charge maybe USD 3/bbl (high) ... or 4% on a USD 75/bbl; the US charges 20%. The strait is now guaranteed to remain closed, and the Gulf incentivized to support Iranian tolling of the strait instead.  

 

SD

May be he didn’t take his meds today. I would not worry to much, tomorrow is Taco Don Tuesday.