BG2008 Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 2019 vintage is not as good as 2018 vintage for year end tax loss harvesting, but I'll try E&P in general - Antero Resources and Antero Midstream DuPont - Maybe? IDW Media Anyone notice any indiscriminate year end loss harvesting trading? Last year, Calumet experienced the most dramatic year end loss harvesting activity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCalledStrikes Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 Contura, CTRA, is a good candidate. It’s down from the high $60’s since January to $20 in November to $5.90 today. It had insider buying last week. It’s probably due for a tax sale bounce. The biggest risk is that you forget to sell after the bounce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 Contura, CTRA, is a good candidate. It’s down from the high $60’s since January to $20 in November to $5.90 today. It had insider buying last week. It’s probably due for a tax sale bounce. The biggest risk is that you forget to sell after the bounce. It’s probably good for a bounce. It looked at the Q3 earnings and what really surprised me is that they can sell thermal coal for $60/ ton. Isn’t that more than 6x what the operators in Powder River get? I think Met coal may go down to $100/Ton - a lot of operators have a cost of $90/ ton so further drops will lead to idling of capacity. I do like ARCH here (don’t own it, but out it on my watch list) as they seem to execute well and seem to have low production cost assets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 As someone who is pretty willing to buy just about anything, including stuff I believe to ultimately be worthless, if there s a trade setup there- coal is probably one of the few things that makes me cringe. You need to have real balls to be in that space. Its like the ugliest, hairiest, turdiest bunch in an ugly, hairy turd universe. I see so many commodity/material plays out of favor right now and coal IMO is the hardest to work. I followed for a while and almost bought some Peabody bonds some years back. Well BTU went bankrupt, then reissued new company equity, and now is going to 0 again like 2 years later...Thats coal right now. WITH a republican president! Good luck to you brave men who dare venture into that space. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCalledStrikes Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 Contura, CTRA, is a good candidate. It’s down from the high $60’s since January to $20 in November to $5.90 today. It had insider buying last week. It’s probably due for a tax sale bounce. The biggest risk is that you forget to sell after the bounce. It’s probably good for a bounce. It looked at the Q3 earnings and what really surprised me is that they can sell thermal coal for $60/ ton. Isn’t that more than 6x what the operators in Powder River get? I think Met coal may go down to $100/Ton - a lot of operators have a cost of $90/ ton so further drops will lead to idling of capacity. I do like ARCH here (don’t own it, but out it on my watch list) as they seem to execute well and seem to have low production cost assets. Powder River Coal has is 1/3 less energy content than Appalachian thermal coal and sells for $12-13/ton. The only reason people buy PRB coal is that it is low sulfur. Its low energy density and remote location also increases rail shipping costs. Contura price realizations Nov 2019 CAPP - Met (includes T&L) $108.35 CAPP – Thermal $61.46 (Central Appalachian) NAPP - Thermal $41.33 (Northern Appalachian) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 I'd been scanning and flipping and fumbling through watch lists starting a few weeks ago cuz it's that time of the year again. It's one(albeit a smaller input into the equation) of the reasons I thought CLXT was a decent trade candidate. I got my pound of flesh there quickly and sold, but wouldn't be shocked to see it get back into mid single digits. Intrexon as well, if you can stomach the absurd biotech volatility. I've definitely noticed a seasonal strength for biotech between November and February. One of my favorite hunting grounds for seasonal swing/momo trades. Sinclair Broadcasting kind of fits the bill too. And actually, TAST, in terms of a January effect, fits the bill to a T as well. And, what was supposed to be a big winner that turned into a dud, Reading International. That said, please dont expect me to explain WTF they are doing buying cinemas in Tasmania... Disclaimer- outside of Sinclair, I dont really think any of the above are great investments, but a dollar is a dollar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BG2008 Posted December 6, 2019 Author Share Posted December 6, 2019 I'd been scanning and flipping and fumbling through watch lists starting a few weeks ago cuz it's that time of the year again. It's one(albeit a smaller input into the equation) of the reasons I thought CLXT was a decent trade candidate. I got my pound of flesh there quickly and sold, but wouldn't be shocked to see it get back into mid single digits. Intrexon as well, if you can stomach the absurd biotech volatility. I've definitely noticed a seasonal strength for biotech between November and February. One of my favorite hunting grounds for seasonal swing/momo trades. Sinclair Broadcasting kind of fits the bill too. And actually, TAST, in terms of a January effect, fits the bill to a T as well. And, what was supposed to be a big winner that turned into a dud, Reading International. That said, please dont expect me to explain WTF they are doing buying cinemas in Tasmania... Disclaimer- outside of Sinclair, I dont really think any of the above are great investments, but a dollar is a dollar. Thanks for reminding me that TAST has year end tax loss selling dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 I'd been scanning and flipping and fumbling through watch lists starting a few weeks ago cuz it's that time of the year again. It's one(albeit a smaller input into the equation) of the reasons I thought CLXT was a decent trade candidate. I got my pound of flesh there quickly and sold, but wouldn't be shocked to see it get back into mid single digits. Intrexon as well, if you can stomach the absurd biotech volatility. I've definitely noticed a seasonal strength for biotech between November and February. One of my favorite hunting grounds for seasonal swing/momo trades. Sinclair Broadcasting kind of fits the bill too. And actually, TAST, in terms of a January effect, fits the bill to a T as well. And, what was supposed to be a big winner that turned into a dud, Reading International. That said, please dont expect me to explain WTF they are doing buying cinemas in Tasmania... Disclaimer- outside of Sinclair, I dont really think any of the above are great investments, but a dollar is a dollar. Thanks for reminding me that TAST has year end tax loss selling dynamics. I agree that TAST looks tasty. I have put it on my watch list a few days ago, but haven’t dug into the stock yet. It looks like a perfect candidate though and the business should be resilient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KJP Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 Qurate (formerly QVC) -- It's gone downhill all year. I can't pinpoint the exact numbers given the ongoing HSN integration, struggles in the US business, and complex tax issues, but I believe it's now somewhere between 20 - 25% FCF yield and 5 or 6x EBITDA, and they buyback a lot of shares. Of course, there's also a lot of debt and the business model appears to be, to put it gently, challenged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 As a foreigner I just wanted to chime in and say I'm baffled every single year by the idiotic consequences of the way investments are taxed in the US. Apparently you have to buy businesses you don't want to own because others have to sell businesses they want to own and then a few weeks later you do the reverse. And if you don't you have to pay extra taxes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DW1234 Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 I take back my comment on outsmarting taxes being fun. This is horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepupil Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 US listed, >$100mm market cap, down 30% or more year to date. 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TwoCitiesCapital Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 As a foreigner I just wanted to chime in and say I'm baffled every single year by the idiotic consequences of the way investments are taxed in the US. Apparently you have to buy businesses you don't want to own because others have to sell businesses they want to own and then a few weeks later you do the reverse. And if you don't you have to pay extra taxes? You don't HAVE to do anything. But yes - investors sitting on a loss, who want to capture the tax value of that loss, have to sell and remain out of the name for 31 days. Tactical investors can take advantage of this - hence, the December/January effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BG2008 Posted December 22, 2019 Author Share Posted December 22, 2019 2019 vintage is not as good as 2018 vintage for year end tax loss harvesting, but I'll try E&P in general - Antero Resources and Antero Midstream DuPont - Maybe? IDW Media Anyone notice any indiscriminate year end loss harvesting trading? Last year, Calumet experienced the most dramatic year end loss harvesting activity AM has done much better than I expected. I think the AR/AM fee reduction deal stopped a lot of the year end tax loss harvesting activity. I agree with Gregmal that coal is tough. Or at least coal in the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Sitting here watching the final tickers trend of 2019, I come to the realization we all missed the most obvious one....pot stocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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