Fairfax stock positions

[Xerxes]

Anyone been looking at Farmer' Edge. 85%+ down.

Well that IPO was a good decision. Was that thing just sucking up resources at corporate... then IPO, you are on your own, sink or swim, ,,, and it sank. Don't feel bad though, samething happened with Vimeo and IAC. So it does happen with the best of us.

 

Everyone has been talking about the "pivot' at FFH and wether it is the market, managerial, better investment, etc.

No one is talking about the fact that things got better since the previous President stepped down. Coincidence ? 

Edited March 3, 2022 by Xerxes

[Viking]

11 hours ago, Thrifty3000 said:

 

@petec I think there's more to it than that.

 

Prem is a formally trained engineer and systems thinker.

 

He engineered a strong insurance operation by getting talented leadership in the right positions and allocating capital to those who proved best able to deploy the capital profitably.

 

I believe he realized there are a number of people more (even far more) talented than he is at allocating non-insurance capital. He spent the last decade engineering an non-insurance capital allocation engine, consisting of David Sokol, Byron Trott, Kennedy Wilson, and so on...

 

I have a thesis that he doesn't want to make anymore material investment decisions unilaterally (though he would tell you he never did make unilateral decisions - which is horse hockey). I believe he gets just as many deal opportunities as he always has, if not more, but I think he is now funneling every opportunity to his network of non-insurance capital allocators.

 

I think the Prem of today wants his non-insurance allocators taking ownership of all significant capital allocation, since they are all proven investors, and since the result will go on their own scorecard, and impact their ability to earn even more capital from Prem.

 

Today, Prem gets to live the good life of having $100+ million a month flowing in the door, and he has a group of proven insurance managers AND a group of proven non-insurance investors vying for that cash (all more skilled than Prem at allocating capital in their respective domains). They pitch ideas to Prem, their performance scorecards are easy to monitor, and their incentives are well aligned. Prem supplies them capital as long as their scores continue to measure up.

 

The strategy HAS changed.

 

My latest epiphany is:

 

- Prem ain't a great investment analyst - and realizes it. He may be a decent analyst, but he knows others are better.

- Prem is a great business leader and - continuously improving - systems-thinking engineer.

- Prem has brilliantly ENGINEERED a diversified capital allocation engine staffed by talented capital allocators.

@Thrifty3000 i think your theory has some truth… we will likely learn more when the AR comes out. And possibly more at the AGM. 
 

The bottom line, Prem has brought together a solid collection of businesses and people. Lots of good things happening in 2021. I am optimistic we will see further improvements in 2022. 

Edited March 3, 2022 by Viking

[Viking]

1 hour ago, Xerxes said:

Anyone been looking at Farmer' Edge. 85%+ down.

Well that IPO was a good decision. Was that thing just sucking up resources at corporate... then IPO, you are on your own, sink or swim, ,,, and it chose to sank. Don't feel bad though, samething happened with Vimeo and IAC. So it does happen with the best of us.

 

Every has been talking about the "pivot' at FFH and wether it is the market, managerial, better investment, etc.

No is talking about the fact that things got better since the previous President stepped down. Coincidence ? 

i listened to 2 Farmers Edge conference calls post IPO and it was painful. Both times the company missed by a wide margin the targets that were laid out in the prospectus (IPO) and reiterated over time by management. The analysts were the most upset i have ever heard on a quarterly call. I do hope Farmers Edge makes a go of it. Given what i have seen and heard from management i hope Fairfax is done injecting new capital until the company is solidly profitable and delivering on its promises.
 

Digit is a great example of where Fairfax hit the ball out of the park; the fact it is an insurance company and in India played to Fairfax’s strengths/circle of competence in both cases. Was Farmers Edge ever in Fairfax’s circle of competence? I have no idea but based on what we have seen so far…
—————

Why Paul Rivette stepped down as President is a mystery to me. I don’t think it was to retire, given how busy he has been since (Torstar and Greenfirst being two examples of where he has popped up). I did some snooping with Greenfirst and their going to market process looked pretty messed up to me (might be normal for a company of their size trying to do what they are trying to do). Too speculative for me - although i think insiders could make big money given what is going on with lumber prices and all the consolidation going on.

Edited March 3, 2022 by Viking

[glider3834]

19 minutes ago, Viking said:

i listened to 2 Farmers Edge conference calls post IPO and it was painful. Both times the company missed by a wide margin the targets that were laid out in the prospectus (IPO) and reiterated over time by management. The analysts were the most upset i have ever heard on a quarterly call. I do hope Farmers Edge makes a go of it. Given what i have seen and heard from management i hope Fairfax is done injecting new capital until the company is solidly profitable and delivering on its promises.

so I think Fairfax's thinking on Farmers Edge is that crop insurance is being increasing digitalised so data now (like in most industries) is critical to underwriting. However, whether they should have invested so heavily in a pre-profit, insurtech start up is the question.

 

Crop insurance is Hudson insurance (Odyssey) largest business & they are recently partnering with Farmers Edge https://odysseygroup.com/news/unique-digital-infrastructure-creates-new-connectivity-in-crop-insurance/

 

They haven't executed & missing your forecasts post IPO is something you just don't do. My impression from last CC is they have enough cash now to get to break even - lets hope so!

Edited March 3, 2022 by glider3834

[petec]

12 hours ago, Thrifty3000 said:

 

@petec I think there's more to it than that.

 

Prem is a formally trained engineer and systems thinker.

 

He engineered a strong insurance operation by getting talented leadership in the right positions and allocating capital to those who proved best able to deploy the capital profitably.

 

I believe he realized there are a number of people more (even far more) talented than he is at allocating non-insurance capital. He spent the last decade engineering an non-insurance capital allocation engine, consisting of David Sokol, Byron Trott, Kennedy Wilson, and so on...

 

I have a thesis that he doesn't want to make anymore material investment decisions unilaterally (though he would tell you he never did make unilateral decisions - which is horse hockey). I believe he gets just as many deal opportunities as he always has, if not more, but I think he is now funneling every opportunity to his network of non-insurance capital allocators.

 

I think the Prem of today wants his non-insurance allocators taking ownership of all significant capital allocation, since they are all proven investors, and since the result will go on their own scorecard, and impact their ability to earn even more capital from Prem.

 

Today, Prem gets to live the good life of having $100+ million a month flowing in the door, and he has a group of proven insurance managers AND a group of proven non-insurance investors vying for that cash (all more skilled than Prem at allocating capital in their respective domains). They pitch ideas to Prem, their performance scorecards are easy to monitor, and their incentives are well aligned. Prem supplies them capital as long as their scores continue to measure up.

 

The strategy HAS changed.

 

My latest epiphany is:

 

- Prem ain't a great investment analyst - and realizes it. He may be a decent analyst, but he knows others are better.

- Prem is a great business leader and - continuously improving - systems-thinking engineer.

- Prem has brilliantly ENGINEERED a diversified capital allocation engine staffed by talented capital allocators.

 

 

 

I am going to be blunt here, but please do not take it as rude. 

 

Practically all of this is a figment if your imagination. That doesn't necessarily make it wrong, but unless you have access to internal discussions at Fairfax that I don't, you're sitting at home inferring process changes from the outputs, and coming to one relatively unlikely conclusion when the evidence equally supports other more likely ones.

 

None of that is a problem - it all adds to the rich diversity of views on this board - but I call it out because it increases the chances that you will be disappointed down the line.

 

I have no doubt Prem is always learning from his successes and failures, like the rest of us. But the idea that he has delegated capital allocation is delusional, in my humble view.

[petec]

7 hours ago, Viking said:

i have no special insight on Grivalia’s merger with Eurobank. My guess is the merger happened because management of the two companies (and Fairfax) felt is was very beneficial for both organizations (and not just a make work project). Perhaps the merger improved the quality of Eurobank’s balance sheet; improved the quantity and quality of their earnings at the time; enhanced Eurobank’s real estate capabilities (important given the need to dramatically reduce non performing loans); accelerated their restructuring. Bottom line, Eurobank today is generally perceived to be the best positioned and best run bank in Greece - this suggests to me the merger with Grivalia was beneficial. But this is just a guess on my part. 

I'm not sure it helped the NPL management - trends there were positive before the merger and have not really changed (except for the fact that a lot of NPLs have been divested, which had nothing to do with the merger).

 

What I did leave out though was the addition of a significant fee stream, which is something a normal equity raise would not have provided.

 

But it was an equity raise, and that was the main benefit, and my guess is that the reason they did it as a merger rather than a raise was to lessen optical dilution to Fairfax. Call me a cynic.

[petec]

5 hours ago, Viking said:

I questioned Fairfax’s investment in Stelco (2018) when I first saw it. And i was COMPLETELY WRONG. Of course, the boom in commodity prices has been the big catalyst for earnings and the share price. But the company had to survive a pandemic driven recession BEFORE it hit the jackpot of US$1,600 steel prices… which it did with flying colours. Because it had no debt. And great management. And an exceptional business plan. Fairfax is a passive partner.

 

Same thing with the Carillion purchase (out of bankruptcy). At the time it screamed ‘old Fairfax’ to me. Looking like i was wrong again. The reverse merger with Horizon North in early 2020 did not look good at the time. Of course i knew little about the actual business. Despite being severely impacted by the pandemic, today the merged company is doing well (although in Q3 results slightly disappointed). Solid management team. Solid business plan. Solid balance sheet. Executing well. My guess is they will hit their $100 million EBITDA target in the next 18-24 months. 
 

Given its large size (Fairfax’s largest investment by far), Atlas/Seaspan is an extremely important example. Completely re-engineering the model for shipping. Delivered great results during the pandemic. More recently successfully executed massive multi-year new-build strategy. Solid balance sheet. Great management. And an exceptional business plan. Fairfax is a passive partner.

 

It's funny, because I was quite positive on all these when they happened, because I thought they looked like good value (i.e. classic Fairfax investments). I also made the same arguments you are making about Atlas & Stelco management and Stelco's balance sheet (but not Atlas' - that's only solid because they issued a shit-ton of equity after Fairfax invested). 

 

But what has really made these two into exceptional investments is the cycle. Period.

 

5 hours ago, Viking said:

These sorts of equity holdings have nothing in common with MANY of the equity purchases made pre-2018. This tells me Fairfax is using a different methodology. I am not suggesting it has been a radical change. But it looks to me like they are placing a much higher premium on:

1.) leadership/management

2.) business plan

3.) financial position/balance sheet (will it need more money from Fairfax to stay in business should adversity strike) 

 

OK. Maybe I am just misreading you. I've had the sense that you are arguing that there has been a radical change. when I think it just looks like a radical change because the cycle has turned. However if you're just arguing there have been incremental changes in emphasis within a deep value framework, then we agree, and I think I have argued the same before, especially around Atlas and Stelco.

[Parsad]

2 hours ago, Xerxes said:

Anyone been looking at Farmer' Edge. 85%+ down.

Well that IPO was a good decision. Was that thing just sucking up resources at corporate... then IPO, you are on your own, sink or swim, ,,, and it sank. Don't feel bad though, samething happened with Vimeo and IAC. So it does happen with the best of us.

 

Everyone has been talking about the "pivot' at FFH and wether it is the market, managerial, better investment, etc.

No one is talking about the fact that things got better since the previous President stepped down. Coincidence ? 

 

Paul was at Fairfax for about 15 years...and he was President of Hamblin Watsa during the financial crisis.  Meaning approval of the portfolio moves, including buying CDS, would have to be run by him and Prem.  So if you are going to say things have gotten better after Paul left, then you better point out some of the greatest successes happened with him there too! 

 

Also, all of the successes that everyone is cheering about now as part of the turnaround...Atlas, Eurobank, Resolute, Brit, Fairfax India, Fairfax Asia, Stelco, etc were all under Paul's watch.  Cheers!

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, Viking said:

Why Paul Rivette stepped down as President is a mystery to me. I don’t think it was to retire, given how busy he has been since (Torstar and Greenfirst being two examples of where he has popped up). I did some snooping with Greenfirst and their going to market process looked pretty messed up to me (might be normal for a company of their size trying to do what they are trying to do). Too speculative for me - although i think insiders could make big money given what is going on with lumber prices and all the consolidation going on.

 

I know the reasons behind Paul leaving, and I can 100% assure you it had nothing to do with Fairfax, Prem's relationship with Paul, or anything to do with the company.  Basically, he had spent his children's life working 12-16 hour days, and he just needed to spend more time with them before they were gone and had flown from the family nest.  He wasn't going to retire, so he made a very tough decision to leave Fairfax and spend more time with his family.  Kudos to him!  Cheers!

[Viking]

18 minutes ago, petec said:

OK. Maybe I am just misreading you. I've had the sense that you are arguing that there has been a radical change. when I think it just looks like a radical change because the cycle has turned. However if you're just arguing there have been incremental changes in emphasis within a deep value framework, then we agree, and I think I have argued the same before, especially around Atlas and Stelco.

I don’t think our views are that far apart… although i do like the questions and debate back and forth. I DO NOT think there has been a radical change. But i do think there has been some change… Compared to prior years, their hit rate on investments in recent years is through the roof. It COULD simply be a multi-year hot streak (luck). Or the opportunity set has just been especially good/easy (stuff they really understand well - like FFH and FIH - has been exceptionally cheap). Or perhaps, as you suggest, the economic cycle is just working for the stuff they are invested in. Or some combination of the above. 
 

I like to think i am a pretty hard marker. Pretty blunt with my assessments when management messes up (probably too much so). So perhaps i am too quick to give management credit when things go well (like they have been recently).

[Parsad]

44 minutes ago, petec said:

 

I am going to be blunt here, but please do not take it as rude. 

 

Practically all of this is a figment if your imagination. That doesn't necessarily make it wrong, but unless you have access to internal discussions at Fairfax that I don't, you're sitting at home inferring process changes from the outputs, and coming to one relatively unlikely conclusion when the evidence equally supports other more likely ones.

 

None of that is a problem - it all adds to the rich diversity of views on this board - but I call it out because it increases the chances that you will be disappointed down the line.

 

I have no doubt Prem is always learning from his successes and failures, like the rest of us. But the idea that he has delegated capital allocation is delusional, in my humble view.

 

Well, you both might be correct.  I don't think Prem is giving the reins over to anyone completely, but we have seen him make considerable changes to 1) lessen the load on himself 2) prepare the company post-Prem and 3) simplify the company.  

 

- Added a President to oversee everything

- Changes to the board including bringing in family members and younger directors

- Narrowing the scope of investments and widening the allocators

- Ensuring future control of the holding company

 

Having a go to group for capital allocation is not only a good idea, it is a must now that the core group is well into their 70's and the older ones are getting closer to 80.  Notice how the core group is overseeing the burgeoning new recruits or some tenured members...Chandran with Fairbridge, Brian and Prem with Wade and Lawrence, and refocusing their energy back into larger, sure bets, rather than venture capital ideas with the closure of Fairventures and the labs.  It's probably the closest its looked to Berkshire or Markel in some time.  Fairfax's succession plan may actually be more advanced than Berkshire's or Markel's!  Cheers!    

[Viking]

32 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

Paul was at Fairfax for about 15 years...and he was President of Hamblin Watsa during the financial crisis.  Meaning approval of the portfolio moves, including buying CDS, would have to be run by him and Prem.  So if you are going to say things have gotten better after Paul left, then you better point out some of the greatest successes happened with him there too! 

 

Also, all of the successes that everyone is cheering about now as part of the turnaround...Atlas, Eurobank, Resolute, Brit, Fairfax India, Fairfax Asia, Stelco, etc were all under Paul's watch.  Cheers!

I will move on from my constant posts on this topic. And that is because it is presenting a very unbalanced view on Fairfax. I have been focussed on what went wrong - largely to highlight what i think has actually changed for the better. 
 

But in doing so i have not spilled much ink talking about all the things Fairfax has done well over the past 10 years. And there have been many successes. And obviously Paul was an integral part of that. 
 

Bottom line, the company is exceptionally well positioned today. And they are poised to exceed expectations in the coming years (in terms of BV growth). So i am both happy and excited to own a significant chunk of shares today. Can’t wait to see what they do!

Edited March 3, 2022 by Viking

[Viking]

43 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

I know the reasons behind Paul leaving, and I can 100% assure you it had nothing to do with Fairfax, Prem's relationship with Paul, or anything to do with the company.  Basically, he had spent his children's life working 12-16 hour days, and he just needed to spend more time with them before they were gone and had flown from the family nest.  He wasn't going to retire, so he made a very tough decision to leave Fairfax and spend more time with his family.  Kudos to him!  Cheers!

@Parsad Do you know if Paul is still involved with Hamblin Watsa?

[Thrifty3000]

7 hours ago, petec said:

 

I am going to be blunt here, but please do not take it as rude. 

 

Practically all of this is a figment if your imagination. That doesn't necessarily make it wrong, but unless you have access to internal discussions at Fairfax that I don't, you're sitting at home inferring process changes from the outputs, and coming to one relatively unlikely conclusion when the evidence equally supports other more likely ones.

 

None of that is a problem - it all adds to the rich diversity of views on this board - but I call it out because it increases the chances that you will be disappointed down the line.

 

I have no doubt Prem is always learning from his successes and failures, like the rest of us. But the idea that he has delegated capital allocation is delusional, in my humble view.

It’s all a figment? $hit!

 

Call me crazy (again), but I like to think of an oversimplified explanation of observable trends as more of an insight than a figment.

 

Now, I will gladly concede a couple things:

 

1) The current excitement around recent and near term earnings prospects are greatly influenced by several strong market cycles and tailwinds. Ie. the insurance hard market won’t be here forever.

 

2) I previously said Prem appears to be dialing back unilateral “bet the farm” investment decisions. I may have given the impression that I think Prem is now simply passively watching others make investments, which I don’t actually believe to be the case. He almost certainly has a heavy hand in big capital allocation decisions, like the recent TRS and share buyback decisions, and I’m sure he played a strong role in the recent decision to allocate more to Kennedy Wilson. 

 

So, I should further clarify, that the capital allocation trend I believe we’re seeing is that Prem is pulling away from making sizable investments in one trick ponies (like Sandridge Energy. Barf.), and is consolidating capital under managers/allocators that have proven long term track records managing multiple assets/investments.

 

I think the Prem of today would rather shop a deal around to Wade, D Sokol, Trott, etc to see which one of them, if any, would want to add it to their own portfolio/scorecard/track record. If he’s not doing that then he should, because it’s a brilliant approach.

 

^ I think that’s a critically important insight (or figment).

 

It’s also an easy thesis to monitor going forward. (Just like it’s easy to monitor whether he shorts again.) To know if I’m wrong in the future, all we have to do is see if Prem makes a very large direct bet in another one trick pony. If he does, then I’ll update my thesis and adjust my financial projections downward, just like I would do if he shorted something. It ain’t rocket surgery.

 

Now, if you still think my insight is a figment please tell me, because my therapist is going to want me to call up Prem, D Sokol, Wade B, Byron Trott, Brian Dalton, and all the leaders at FF India, FF Africa, Kennedy Wilson, the restaurant group, etc etc and tell all of them that they and their track records don’t really exist.

[glider3834]

5 hours ago, Thrifty3000 said:

It’s all a figment? $hit!

 

Call me crazy (again), but I like to think of an oversimplified explanation of observable trends as more of an insight than a figment.

 

Now, I will gladly concede a couple things:

 

1) The current excitement around recent and near term earnings prospects are greatly influenced by several strong market cycles and tailwinds. Ie. the insurance hard market won’t be here forever.

 

2) I previously said Prem appears to be dialing back unilateral “bet the farm” investment decisions. I may have given the impression that I think Prem is now simply passively watching others make investments, which I don’t actually believe to be the case. He almost certainly has a heavy hand in big capital allocation decisions, like the recent TRS and share buyback decisions, and I’m sure he played a strong role in the recent decision to allocate more to Kennedy Wilson. 

 

So, I should further clarify, that the capital allocation trend I believe we’re seeing is that Prem is pulling away from making sizable investments in one trick ponies (like Sandridge Energy. Barf.), and is consolidating capital under managers/allocators that have proven long term track records managing multiple assets/investments.

 

I think the Prem of today would rather shop a deal around to Wade, D Sokol, Trott, etc to see which one of them, if any, would want to add it to their own portfolio/scorecard/track record. If he’s not doing that then he should, because it’s a brilliant approach.

 

^ I think that’s a critically important insight (or figment).

 

It’s also an easy thesis to monitor going forward. (Just like it’s easy to monitor whether he shorts again.) To know if I’m wrong in the future, all we have to do is see if Prem makes a very large direct bet in another one trick pony. If he does, then I’ll update my thesis and adjust my financial projections downward, just like I would do if he shorted something. It ain’t rocket surgery.

 

Now, if you still think my insight is a figment please tell me, because my therapist is going to want me to call up Prem, D Sokol, Wade B, Byron Trott, Brian Dalton, and all the leaders at FF India, FF Africa, Kennedy Wilson, the restaurant group, etc etc and tell all of them that they and their track records don’t really exist.

I think Prem & Fairfax did a big energy deal, I would bet that its more than likely going to happen through David Sokol/Atlas with Fairfax chipping in capital if needed. If they do a banking deal in Europe, its probably going to happen via Eurobank - here is a recent one in Dec-21  https://www.eurobank.gr/en/group/grafeio-tupou/etairiki-anakoinosi-28-12-21

Also it was interesting that Fairfax sold two of their direct owned IIFL India holdings and bought shares in Fairfax India - I think this was in part an opportunistic move as Fairfax India shares are cheap but also IMHO because unless its a future insurance deal then most of their future India deals (with exception of Quess or Thomas Cook sector related deals) I suspect will happen via Fairfax India 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 3, 2022 by glider3834

[Parsad]

14 hours ago, Viking said:

@Parsad Do you know if Paul is still involved with Hamblin Watsa?

 

No, Paul is spending time working on his personal ventures and enjoying life with his family.  You never know...you may see him back at Fairfax or working with them in some way in the future, but presently he is not involved with HW or Fairfax.  I certainly would not be surprised to see some future deal where Fairfax and Paul are involved in some way.  Cheers!

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, glider3834 said:

I think Prem & Fairfax did a big energy deal, I would bet that its more than likely going to happen through David Sokol/Atlas with Fairfax chipping in capital if needed. If they do a banking deal in Europe, its probably going to happen via Eurobank - here is a recent one in Dec-21  https://www.eurobank.gr/en/group/grafeio-tupou/etairiki-anakoinosi-28-12-21

Also it was interesting that Fairfax sold two of their direct owned IIFL India holdings and bought shares in Fairfax India - I think this was in part an opportunistic move as Fairfax India shares are cheap but also IMHO because unless its a future insurance deal then most of their future India deals (with exception of Quess or Thomas Cook sector related deals) I suspect will happen via Fairfax India 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes, and this gives analysts and shareholders greater visibility of what is going on at the company and how the investments are managed.  I think this is the direction they are headed to prepare the company post-Prem.  Can you imagine the investment issues at Berkshire after Buffett, even with the two Toms there with the amount of money pouring in every day?  Or Markel post-Gaynor...lack of depth on the investment side? 

 

We've got very capable people at Fairfax (HW, Fairbridge) and associated with Fairfax (Sokol, Chen, KW, Trott, Dalton, etc) that can manage the huge amount of capital we have and that will flow in from insurance over time.  And those associated with Fairfax have very honed skillsets in certain industries that make them among the best.  Cheers! 

[Viking]

7 hours ago, Thrifty3000 said:

It’s all a figment? $hit!

 

Call me crazy (again), but I like to think of an oversimplified explanation of observable trends as more of an insight than a figment.

 

Now, I will gladly concede a couple things:

 

1) The current excitement around recent and near term earnings prospects are greatly influenced by several strong market cycles and tailwinds. Ie. the insurance hard market won’t be here forever.

 

2) I previously said Prem appears to be dialing back unilateral “bet the farm” investment decisions. I may have given the impression that I think Prem is now simply passively watching others make investments, which I don’t actually believe to be the case. He almost certainly has a heavy hand in big capital allocation decisions, like the recent TRS and share buyback decisions, and I’m sure he played a strong role in the recent decision to allocate more to Kennedy Wilson. 

 

So, I should further clarify, that the capital allocation trend I believe we’re seeing is that Prem is pulling away from making sizable investments in one trick ponies (like Sandridge Energy. Barf.), and is consolidating capital under managers/allocators that have proven long term track records managing multiple assets/investments.

 

I think the Prem of today would rather shop a deal around to Wade, D Sokol, Trott, etc to see which one of them, if any, would want to add it to their own portfolio/scorecard/track record. If he’s not doing that then he should, because it’s a brilliant approach.

 

^ I think that’s a critically important insight (or figment).

 

It’s also an easy thesis to monitor going forward. (Just like it’s easy to monitor whether he shorts again.) To know if I’m wrong in the future, all we have to do is see if Prem makes a very large direct bet in another one trick pony. If he does, then I’ll update my thesis and adjust my financial projections downward, just like I would do if he shorted something. It ain’t rocket surgery.

 

Now, if you still think my insight is a figment please tell me, because my therapist is going to want me to call up Prem, D Sokol, Wade B, Byron Trott, Brian Dalton, and all the leaders at FF India, FF Africa, Kennedy Wilson, the restaurant group, etc etc and tell all of them that they and their track records don’t really exist.

Prem did state that Wade and Laurence would be getting a big increase in the amount of money they directly manage due to their outstanding track record. This supports your thesis of how Fairfax is currently allocating capital… with new money going to top performers.

[StubbleJumper]

I hope that FFH is making use of its NCIB these days.  The price is currently US$461, which is a considerable improvement over what they paid for the SIB.  You don't get much volume from the NCIB, but it would be nice if they could even get 100k discounted shares during March.

 

 

SJ

[Crip1]

10 minutes ago, StubbleJumper said:

I hope that FFH is making use of its NCIB these days.  The price is currently US$461, which is a considerable improvement over what they paid for the SIB.  You don't get much volume from the NCIB, but it would be nice if they could even get 100k discounted shares during March.

 

 

SJ

You beat me to it. 

[gfp]

Anyone know offhand what percentage of Exco Resources Fairfax owns?  Estimate of value?

[StubbleJumper]

1 minute ago, gfp said:

Anyone know offhand what percentage of Exco Resources Fairfax owns?  Estimate of value?

Check out @Viking's spreadsheet.  He has the ownership at 44%.  You'd have to do a bit of school-boy arithmetic to calculate today's value.

 

 

SJ

[gfp]

41 minutes ago, StubbleJumper said:

Check out @Viking's spreadsheet.  He has the ownership at 44%.  You'd have to do a bit of school-boy arithmetic to calculate today's value.

 

 

SJ

 

Thanks.  Second lazy question - when are we expecting the Fairfax annual shareholder's letter to be released?

 

(and is there a drinking game involving the number of exclamation points used by Prem?)

Edited March 4, 2022 by gfp

[StubbleJumper]

8 minutes ago, gfp said:

 

Thanks.  Second lazy question - when are we expecting the Fairfax annual shareholder's letter to be released?

 

(and is there a drinking game involving the number of exclamation points used by Prem?)

 

Isn't the letter to be released tomorrow?  I haven't actually checked, but usually it's Berkie one Saturday and then FFH the next.

 

 

SJ

[gfp]

Or maybe it is tonight after the close?  I feel like Fairfax emails it out on a Friday night