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Trump doing a huge favor to Canada


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Canadians in general have a nasty dependency: ease of trading with the U.S.

 

After lumber, steel and aluminum now, it is paper:

 

http://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.4480488

 

Maybe that more Canadians will finally wake up and realize the magnitude of lost revenue especially for oil and gas. But now it is for all our resources and exports. Canada is sitting on 3 oceans. It is crazy to tie our hands in such manner. With more shipping options and international contracts it is obvious that Canada would gain negotiating power. Nothing wrong with the U.S. as it is us being the beggars.

 

It is time for a disintoxication cure!

 

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What is the GDO portion of Canadian lumber, steel, oil, gas etc.?

 

The best thing Canada can do is reduce this number as much as possible and have its resources allocated to services, hi-tech etc.

All extractive industries amount to about 8%. Throw in lumber and steel you're probably around 10.

 

I don't disagree with your premise. But the problem with your idea is that it's not that easy to take a lumberjack and turn him into a code monkey.

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Lumberjacks make good money too. It's hard work but the pay is good.

 

The truth is that lumber jobs aren't going anywhere. Canada and the US need a lot of lumber. Someone will fill that need and as it turns out Canada has a lot of lumber. It really is just as simple as that.

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Here is another problem - most of the Canadian code monkeys find jobs in the U.S. I don't think there are enough jobs in Canada to support all the engineering grads.

 

My wife is the director of produce at a software company in Toronto and there are plenty of jobs for software developers.  I don't know what a code monkey is........I guess that's a derogatory term a pencil pusher uses.

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"Here is another problem - most of the Canadian code monkeys find jobs in the U.S. I don't think there are enough jobs in Canada to support all the engineering grads."

 

shalab,

Pretty strong statement. What are you implying?

 

Historically, the "brain drain" (Canada to USA) that has occurred for high-skilled workers has been relatively marginal and has been more than compensated by international net brain gain. I work with the assumption that it is best for a country to have a trade deficit in terms of the brain trade. :)

 

But this brain drain has been relatively marginal and, in my field, the trend has actually reversed.

 

One of my children recently started a software engineering degree and her local/regional/national job prospects are incredibly strong.

This anecdotal evidence concords with what augustabound reports and is somewhat supported by facts.

Link:

https://engineerscanada.ca/sites/default/files/Labour-Market-2015-e.pdf

see pages 12(11), 144(143) to 155(154) and 179(178) to 189(188)

The international numbers do not separate the USA and other than USA components.

 

What stands out is that there will continue to be excess demand for computer and software engineers and it is projected that excess demand will be continue to be met by net positive international migration.

 

If your post meant that the US will likely continue to be an attraction pole for some of the best and brightest, I agree.

if your post implies that computer and software engineers who graduate (I understand that code monkeys is meant to be recently graduated computer/software engineers) will need to go to the US to find a job, you may want to provide more solid data or justification.

 

 

 

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The NAFTA 're-negotiation' is actually a very good thing; as the fundamental changes that it will bring - could not occurr unless they were forced by a big player. Provincial trade barriers, and provincial 'fiefdoms', are not sustainable - when you're being picked off and pounded on by a 800lb gorilla.

 

Severely restrict BC's US softwood lumber exports, and you do all of Canada an enormous favour.

Nothing forces change more effectively than a sustained spike in short-term unemployment. Politicians get replaced for bringng it on, and their replacements tossed if they cannot rapidly increase employment. ie: move as many goods as possible through BC ports, and increase trade as much as possible with Asia and South America. Todays BC politician is 'best served' by status-quo; NOT change.

 

The US is also not immune; Alaska is far away, and Putin seems determined to return the world to 'cold war'.

Arctic ocean ports and rail links would be highly beneficial to both Canada/US, and the trade would be in o/g and minerals as global warming opens up the North. Global shipping can already cross the NA landmass via the NSR passage; raise the value of the goods in transit - and everybody has strong icentive to play 'nice'. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northeast_Passage

 

In August 2012, Russian media reported that 85% of vessels transiting the Northern Sea Route in 2011 were carrying gas or oil, and 80% were high-capacity tankers

 

Since the early 2000s, the thickness and area extent of the Arctic sea ice has experienced significant reduction, compared to the recorded averages. This has led to an increase in transit shipping. In 2011, four ships sailed the entire length of the NEP, 46 in 2012, and 19 in 2013. The number of trips is still very small compared to the thousands of ships each year through the Suez Canal. Mainstream container shipping is expected to continue to overwhelmingly use the Suez route, while niche activities like bulk shipping is expected to grow, driven by the mining industries of the Arctic.

 

SD

 

 

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cigarbutt - no doubt there are CS jobs in Canada, but I don't think there are enough of them for all the graduates from all schools.

 

BTW, this was told to me by a PhD from a Canadian school who works in the US. Many of these folks (if not all) end up becoming US permanent residents and citizens.

 

From your doc, there are about 2000 jobs/year in CS or Computer Engineering in Canada. About 800 students graduate from the university of waterloo alone in CS as seen below. This is not including computer engineering, electrical engineering etc. many of whom also end up becoming computer engineers.

 

https://cs.uwaterloo.ca/about/quick-facts

 

Here are the job opportunities for people who are graduating. If you are somewhat ambitious, working at Loblaw or Scotiabank is not particularly appealing.

 

https://cs.uwaterloo.ca/future-graduate-students/careers-0

 

BTW - I don't see anything wrong in this as it is the natural law of economics. It has worked in reverse also as is seen in the case of Turing award winner Steve Cook who was refused faculty tenure in U.C Berkeley.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Cook

 

 

 

"Here is another problem - most of the Canadian code monkeys find jobs in the U.S. I don't think there are enough jobs in Canada to support all the engineering grads."

 

shalab,

Pretty strong statement. What are you implying?

 

Historically, the "brain drain" (Canada to USA) that has occurred for high-skilled workers has been relatively marginal and has been more than compensated by international net brain gain. I work with the assumption that it is best for a country to have a trade deficit in terms of the brain trade. :)

 

But this brain drain has been relatively marginal and, in my field, the trend has actually reversed.

 

One of my children recently started a software engineering degree and her local/regional/national job prospects are incredibly strong.

This anecdotal evidence concords with what augustabound reports and is somewhat supported by facts.

Link:

https://engineerscanada.ca/sites/default/files/Labour-Market-2015-e.pdf

see pages 12(11), 144(143) to 155(154) and 179(178) to 189(188)

The international numbers do not separate the USA and other than USA components.

 

What stands out is that there will continue to be excess demand for computer and software engineers and it is projected that excess demand will be continue to be met by net positive international migration.

 

If your post meant that the US will likely continue to be an attraction pole for some of the best and brightest, I agree.

if your post implies that computer and software engineers who graduate (I understand that code monkeys is meant to be recently graduated computer/software engineers) will need to go to the US to find a job, you may want to provide more solid data or justification.

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Fair enough.

Have only indirect or second-hand knowledge about this (mostly Montreal and Toronto area).

 

I hear though that the future job market in this space (and others) will be affected by a large amount of baby-boomers retiring.

 

I will encourage my daughter to look at the US in terms of further training or work but I see that she has gotten an interesting offer for a summer internship in a local venture capital firm after her first year of study with an annualized salary above median population income (!) and, if present circumstances persist, will have a choice, before she graduates, between several interesting alternatives with a starting salary above a 100 grand (CAD $ mind you :)). It is hard to say that the market is not tight in my neck of the woods for code monkeys.

 

I also agree it is probably best to let the natural laws of economics play with minimum friction.

Everybody wins as this is a positive-sum game.

 

 

 

 

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https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/sask-premier-blasts-mind-boggling-rail-backlog-of-grain-shipments-1.3846272

 

CN and CP just milk the system: lowest capacity possible, only keep busy routes, raise rates. Easy when you are a monopoly.

 

Maybe that our leaders should call the President of the Republic of Congo to figure out how to move goods out of the country?

 

After all, is there a more "landlocked" country than Congo? Yet, they still figure out to ship the vast majority of their copper and cobalt across the world. And no, they don't rely on Uganda or Zambia to consume most of it...

 

Yet we sit on 3 oceans and no need to cross any country to access sea water. Simply amazing!

 

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Reminds me of that story Zeno's paradox, if you have to get from A to B and cover half the distance, and half the distance again you won't be able to do it. Of course you just move from A to B in reality. Countries that have silly ideals or philosophies (usually socialist ones - and a specific flavour of it) tend to really shoot themselves in the foot with red tape and other hindrances to action.

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