ScottHall Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 If you could go back in time and tell the people of the year 1992 what was going to happen in 2016, you would have been locked up as a nutcase and seen unfit to handle your own finances. But after getting high I began to see a few similarities. Imagine telling a crowd of people that Donald Trump would win the Republican primary, in part, by marginalizing the son of incumbent President George H.W. Bush by calling him names. Then imagine telling them that he would go on to win the election against the wife of the current Democratic presidential nominee Bill Clinton. And that he would do so by running on a platform seemingly bastardized from fellow billionaire Ross Perot's 1992 run and with the - publicly known - aid of a former KGB agent who is now in charge of Russia. Imagine the looks you would get at how far fetched of a scheme that is. Then imagine the response you'd get from informing them that in 2016, people from all over the world are perfectly happy to PAY for the privilege of having the government take their money for five years. The world really is unpredictable. Those who try to fit the world into a spreadsheet don't have any appreciation for the broader chaos of human existence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 But you broke character! People who thought you were serious in that video will be so confused... The world really is unpredictable. Those who try to fit the world into a spreadsheet don't have any appreciation for the broader chaos of human existence. Absolutely. Clinging to consistency only has a so-so hit rate when it comes to predicting the future. From "lock her up" because she might have handled confidential info carelessly to being "really impressed" with a general who lost his job as chief of the CIA because he pleaded guilty to mishandling classified information by giving it to his mistress... Who knows ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 Even with Superforecasting predictions are pretty useless for >5 years. Without Superforecasting most of them are useless even for shorter periods (see Tetlock's previous work). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InvestingOnSale Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 I think this sums it up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rawraw Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 The world really is unpredictable. Those who try to fit the world into a spreadsheet don't have any appreciation for the broader chaos of human existence. Luckily we don't have to get it right. We just have to get it slightly less wrong than everyone else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 I predict Justin Bieber will be president in 2041 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 I predict Justin Bieber will be president in 2041 I predict you're wrong. Bieber is Canadian. But whatever. Us Canadians are just glad he moved to the US. He's your problem now. Make with him what you wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 I predict Justin Bieber will be president in 2041 I predict you're wrong. Bieber is Canadian. But whatever. Us Canadians are just glad he moved to the US. He's your problem now. Make with him what you wish. Oh well; not being a fan means I had no clue where the guy is from. Here's a leap for you! The Donald changes the law so fereners can run for president (he'll figure on getting Melania elected after he does his own eight years & the unintended consequence will be a Bieber presidency...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 Sure as I've said, do with him as you wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 Sure as I've said, do with him as you wish. OK; I wish he was a ham sandwich & Donald Trump would eat him (I'm sure he'd be a bad ham sandwich & DT would probably choke on him & we'd rid ourselves of two turkeys with one rock...) Enough surrealistic mixed metaphoric nonsense for the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
augustabound Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 I predict Justin Bieber will be president in 2041 I love that some people around the world think Bieber is American. ;D You guys know Drake is also American, right? Edit: to clarify, it's not a knock on the U.S. I just love that people don't know he's Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rawraw Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 You mean to tell me that Drake and Bieber are from United States north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 I predict Justin Bieber will be president in 2041 I predict you're wrong. Bieber is Canadian. But whatever. Us Canadians are just glad he moved to the US. He's your problem now. Make with him what you wish. Sure but that won't matter after the U.S. and Canada merger in 2038. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 I predict Justin Bieber will be president in 2041 I predict you're wrong. Bieber is Canadian. But whatever. Us Canadians are just glad he moved to the US. He's your problem now. Make with him what you wish. Sure but that won't matter after the U.S. and Canada merger in 2038. A joke I hope... or I will be getting my guns out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
petec Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 I predict Justin Bieber will be president in 2041 I predict you're wrong. Bieber is Canadian. But whatever. Us Canadians are just glad he moved to the US. He's your problem now. Make with him what you wish. Sure but that won't matter after the U.S. and Canada merger in 2038. A joke I hope... or I will be getting my guns out. You can come to the UK - with any luck it will be one of the most open countries in the world by then, *and* we have socialised medicine ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 I predict Justin Bieber will be president in 2041 I predict you're wrong. Bieber is Canadian. But whatever. Us Canadians are just glad he moved to the US. He's your problem now. Make with him what you wish. Sure but that won't matter after the U.S. and Canada merger in 2038. A joke I hope... or I will be getting my guns out. I don't care either way, because New Hampshire will secede in 2029 (shortly after Texas). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
augustabound Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 I predict Justin Bieber will be president in 2041 I predict you're wrong. Bieber is Canadian. But whatever. Us Canadians are just glad he moved to the US. He's your problem now. Make with him what you wish. Sure but that won't matter after the U.S. and Canada merger in 2038. A joke I hope... or I will be getting my guns out. You can come to the UK - with any luck it will be one of the most open countries in the world by then, *and* we have socialised medicine ;) I'm in as long as I'm not expected to watch that drama you call football. :P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Hjorth Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 I predict Justin Bieber will be president in 2041 I predict you're wrong. Bieber is Canadian. But whatever. Us Canadians are just glad he moved to the US. He's your problem now. Make with him what you wish. Sure but that won't matter after the U.S. and Canada merger in 2038. A joke I hope... or I will be getting my guns out. Don't worry to much, Uccmal. All merger discussions will most likely eventually strand, drowned in heated and emotional discussions about the flag for the continuing entity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 I predict Justin Bieber will be president in 2041 I predict you're wrong. Bieber is Canadian. But whatever. Us Canadians are just glad he moved to the US. He's your problem now. Make with him what you wish. Sure but that won't matter after the U.S. and Canada merger in 2038. A joke I hope... or I will be getting my guns out. Don't worry to much, Uccmal. All merger discussions will most likely eventually strand, drowned in heated and emotional discussions about the flag for the continuing entity. Change the stars to maple leafs...Done. Just don't burn it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 http://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2016/08/31/491842943/can-a-canadian-prime-minister-be-an-action-hero-marvel-comics-thinks-so Would the Donald be his sidekick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wachtwoord Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 I predict Justin Bieber will be president in 2041 I predict you're wrong. Bieber is Canadian. But whatever. Us Canadians are just glad he moved to the US. He's your problem now. Make with him what you wish. Sure but that won't matter after the U.S. and Canada merger in 2038. A joke I hope... or I will be getting my guns out. I don't care either way, because New Hampshire will secede in 2029 (shortly after Texas). I will seriously living in either of those 2 states (live free or die!). But only after they secede. I have zero desire to live in the USA thank you very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 I predict Justin Bieber will be president in 2041 I predict you're wrong. Bieber is Canadian. But whatever. Us Canadians are just glad he moved to the US. He's your problem now. Make with him what you wish. Sure but that won't matter after the U.S. and Canada merger in 2038. A joke I hope... or I will be getting my guns out. I don't care either way, because New Hampshire will secede in 2029 (shortly after Texas). I will seriously living in either of those 2 states (live free or die!). But only after they secede. I have zero desire to live in the USA thank you very much. We're working on it. https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2016/11/29/libertarians-endorse-secession/JqQmZMmkW5tci7R5hRuNVM/story.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
petec Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 I predict Justin Bieber will be president in 2041 I predict you're wrong. Bieber is Canadian. But whatever. Us Canadians are just glad he moved to the US. He's your problem now. Make with him what you wish. Sure but that won't matter after the U.S. and Canada merger in 2038. A joke I hope... or I will be getting my guns out. You can come to the UK - with any luck it will be one of the most open countries in the world by then, *and* we have socialised medicine ;) I'm in as long as I'm not expected to watch that drama you call football. :P Oh God. Worst sport ever. At least we have rugby. (We do however have language on our side, given that the word football does imply that the game is primarily played with the feet ;) ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 I predict Justin Bieber will be president in 2041 I predict you're wrong. Bieber is Canadian. But whatever. Us Canadians are just glad he moved to the US. He's your problem now. Make with him what you wish. Sure but that won't matter after the U.S. and Canada merger in 2038. A joke I hope... or I will be getting my guns out. You can come to the UK - with any luck it will be one of the most open countries in the world by then, *and* we have socialised medicine ;) I'm in as long as I'm not expected to watch that drama you call football. :P Foreigners may not realize it, but watching American Football isn't a requirement to live here. I think the last NFL game I sat down and watched was when the Patriots were in the Superbowl playing the Bears when I was young sometime in the 80's. Even back then I enjoyed the commercials more than the game. My wife and I like to make plans on Superbowl Sunday, because wherever you go it isn't crowded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
augustabound Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 I predict Justin Bieber will be president in 2041 I predict you're wrong. Bieber is Canadian. But whatever. Us Canadians are just glad he moved to the US. He's your problem now. Make with him what you wish. Sure but that won't matter after the U.S. and Canada merger in 2038. A joke I hope... or I will be getting my guns out. You can come to the UK - with any luck it will be one of the most open countries in the world by then, *and* we have socialised medicine ;) I'm in as long as I'm not expected to watch that drama you call football. :P Oh God. Worst sport ever. At least we have rugby. (We do however have language on our side, given that the word football does imply that the game is primarily played with the feet ;) ) I can get into rugby. I've always been on the side of soccer being called football because it's just logical. We also agree on the proper spelling of words with "ou" like flavour, colour etc. And the last letter of the English language is "zed" not "zee". ;) You know, I'm starting to like this partnership already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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