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There are broadly two types of funds now - ones with a NAV of 1 and ones where NAV floats. The NAV of 1 is government guaranteed instruments - the floating NAV is the one that has credit risk.

My life revolves around sleep. No artificial lights, no alarm clocks, weighted blankets, you name it I've tried it. When I had a Nest thermostat, I even varied the temperature through the night to maximize the temperature effect on the sleep cycle. I haven't used an alarm clock in five years but wake up between 3 AM to 5 AM every morning perfectly rested. And Matthew Walker's interview with Joe Rogan made me scared I wasn't sleeping enough - and I get a full night's sleep every night!!

You guys should look into using One Note instead of all these word documents and folders.

If you want some insight into this sort of stuff, here is a podcast on Quants and their data sources. http://blog.estimize.com/post/161782041292/podcast-quant-vs-traditional-investors-and-how

Should we only listen to lottery winners on how to get rich? Hard to separate luck/skill and alpha/beta from simple return in signature

I read the filings before investment. Then after investment, I blackline the 10K/10Q and read the 8Ks. I also look for incremental information to confirm/disconfirm thesis in slide decks and other sources.

Masters in Business is great. These are the guests I've found the most insightful Howard Marks Mario Gabelli Kenneth fisher David Rosenberg Charley Ellis Patrick O Shaughnessy Larry swedroe Micheal moubassin Jim chanos Sheila Blair Gundlach Jim O Shaughnessy Also, Patrick O Shaughnessy has a good podcast.

Use a referer addin and utilize Twitter as the referring website. Google does not work but Twitter does

I listened to a podcast recently, where this guy was making unreal returns on small private businesses. But the problem is the due diligence and low hit rate. Cultivating a Disaster Resistant, Compound Interest Machine – Brent Beshore [invest Like the Best, EP.10] http://investorfieldguide.com/beshore/ I thought that podcast was great discussion on this market

Yea! I've known people to rent second and third apartments just to AirBNB them. I worry when my pedicab buddy is telling me about these schemes, that it is late in the cycle ha!

Thanks for the reply! Can you please specify "this" in your opening sentence. I really have no idea what you are specifically addressing

Just saw this. I'd assume most assign probabilities to inside view qualitatively. So when combined with base rates, you'd say there is a 45% chance of this happening. But variable X, Y, Z change the percentage in my view by 10% to 55%. My preference would be to get more detailed on the base rate. For example, how does the base rate change for cases in the sample with variable X. But sometimes the sample isn't large enough for that sort of refinement. And I always like to check how sensitive my forecast is to changing probabilities. I think the Base Rate book isn't supposed to be a new investing methodology. I think it is more supposed to be a helpful way to keep multi-year forecasts in check, by understanding the distribution of differing variables over time. I think the purpose is very mechanical in nature; more focused on improving forecasting than improving the thinking behind investing.

Just saw this. I'd assume most assign probabilities to inside view qualitatively. So when combined with base rates, you'd say there is a 45% chance of this happening. But variable X, Y, Z change the percentage in my view by 10% to 55%. My preference would be to get more detailed on the base rate. For example, how does the base rate change for cases in the sample with variable X. But sometimes the sample isn't large enough for that sort of refinement. I think the Base Rate book isn't supposed to be a new investing methodology. I think it is more supposed to be a helpful way to keep multi-year forecasts in check, by understanding the distribution of differing variables over time. I think the purpose is very mechanical in nature; more focused on improving forecasting than improving the thinking behind investing.

I think some just need to remember Buffet is just another guy. He hasn't made his career predicting GDP!

You mean to tell me that Drake and Bieber are from United States north?