Jump to content

rawraw

Member
  • Posts

    63
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by rawraw

  1. There are broadly two types of funds now - ones with a NAV of 1 and ones where NAV floats. The NAV of 1 is government guaranteed instruments - the floating NAV is the one that has credit risk.
  2. My life revolves around sleep. No artificial lights, no alarm clocks, weighted blankets, you name it I've tried it. When I had a Nest thermostat, I even varied the temperature through the night to maximize the temperature effect on the sleep cycle. I haven't used an alarm clock in five years but wake up between 3 AM to 5 AM every morning perfectly rested. And Matthew Walker's interview with Joe Rogan made me scared I wasn't sleeping enough - and I get a full night's sleep every night!!
  3. You guys should look into using One Note instead of all these word documents and folders.
  4. If you want some insight into this sort of stuff, here is a podcast on Quants and their data sources. http://blog.estimize.com/post/161782041292/podcast-quant-vs-traditional-investors-and-how
  5. Should we only listen to lottery winners on how to get rich? Hard to separate luck/skill and alpha/beta from simple return in signature
  6. I read the filings before investment. Then after investment, I blackline the 10K/10Q and read the 8Ks. I also look for incremental information to confirm/disconfirm thesis in slide decks and other sources.
  7. Masters in Business is great. These are the guests I've found the most insightful Howard Marks Mario Gabelli Kenneth fisher David Rosenberg Charley Ellis Patrick O Shaughnessy Larry swedroe Micheal moubassin Jim chanos Sheila Blair Gundlach Jim O Shaughnessy Also, Patrick O Shaughnessy has a good podcast.
  8. Use a referer addin and utilize Twitter as the referring website. Google does not work but Twitter does
  9. I listened to a podcast recently, where this guy was making unreal returns on small private businesses. But the problem is the due diligence and low hit rate. Cultivating a Disaster Resistant, Compound Interest Machine – Brent Beshore [invest Like the Best, EP.10] http://investorfieldguide.com/beshore/ I thought that podcast was great discussion on this market
  10. Yea! I've known people to rent second and third apartments just to AirBNB them. I worry when my pedicab buddy is telling me about these schemes, that it is late in the cycle ha!
  11. Thanks for the reply! Can you please specify "this" in your opening sentence. I really have no idea what you are specifically addressing
  12. Just saw this. I'd assume most assign probabilities to inside view qualitatively. So when combined with base rates, you'd say there is a 45% chance of this happening. But variable X, Y, Z change the percentage in my view by 10% to 55%. My preference would be to get more detailed on the base rate. For example, how does the base rate change for cases in the sample with variable X. But sometimes the sample isn't large enough for that sort of refinement. And I always like to check how sensitive my forecast is to changing probabilities. I think the Base Rate book isn't supposed to be a new investing methodology. I think it is more supposed to be a helpful way to keep multi-year forecasts in check, by understanding the distribution of differing variables over time. I think the purpose is very mechanical in nature; more focused on improving forecasting than improving the thinking behind investing.
  13. Just saw this. I'd assume most assign probabilities to inside view qualitatively. So when combined with base rates, you'd say there is a 45% chance of this happening. But variable X, Y, Z change the percentage in my view by 10% to 55%. My preference would be to get more detailed on the base rate. For example, how does the base rate change for cases in the sample with variable X. But sometimes the sample isn't large enough for that sort of refinement. I think the Base Rate book isn't supposed to be a new investing methodology. I think it is more supposed to be a helpful way to keep multi-year forecasts in check, by understanding the distribution of differing variables over time. I think the purpose is very mechanical in nature; more focused on improving forecasting than improving the thinking behind investing.
  14. I think some just need to remember Buffet is just another guy. He hasn't made his career predicting GDP!
  15. You mean to tell me that Drake and Bieber are from United States north?
  16. That's the difference between 2 times margin and 10 times margin. At 2 times margin, the bank owns you. At 10 times margin you own the bank!!! Which is why we lever at 2 and not 10. Nobody wants to own a bank in this age... I want to own a bank! Especially before this recent run up when everyone was so negative on the sector
  17. Luckily we don't have to get it right. We just have to get it slightly less wrong than everyone else
  18. If a hedge is insurance, shouldn't it be a small cost to prevent large left tail risks? Perhaps I'm thinking about this too literally, but the effectiveness of hedge trades (I'd assume) should manifest in the volatility of the portfolio vs the index. No? Also, process is more important than outcome IMO. But not all process will produce good outcomes. My process could be go overweight every time it is a full moon. I could never break it but get terrible outcomes. So the results should be holistically viewed not as just a bunch of outcomes, but also a function of the process. Ideally the process should increase your success rate and you can tweak it over time to get better
  19. But do you view this as a favorable thing for airlines? To me this just suggests how precarious a large airline company is as a long term investment
  20. I don't doubt there are some unfair cost advantages, but I don't agree that they buy the same planes. I only have a cursory knowledge, so I could be mistaken. But Their fleet is much newer, which is one of the helpful aspects. They aren't like WOW where the flight is cheap but uncomfortable. They fly some of the more fuel efficient planes, which surely the others can buy. It's just lots of capex and dealing with legacy planes. No idea what keeps the others from investing
  21. The current airlines are getting fat from regulatory protections. Norwegian is coming to eat the domestic carriers alive. I wouldn't invest in this space unless you think we are becoming much more protectionist. They simply can't compete with these new airlines without massive capex spending http://www.fool.com/investing/2016/10/24/another-foreign-airline-gets-assist-jetblue-airway.aspx
  22. I'm very fond of community bank stocks. I haven't run my screens recently but I doubt I have many cheap ones. Both my paper portfolio on banks I'm restricted from buying and my actual portfolio are doing quite well.
  23. I'm not so sure I agree/understand with the above bolded statements. No idea what volume you are talking about. Also, while it seems many investors pay attention to the level of interest rates for banks. The shape of the yield curve is equally very important. Banks do better not necessarily when rates are low or high, but rather when the spread between borrowing and lending rates are wide. In terms bank complexity with rising rates, the problem is that the financial assets and liabilities are the reflection of consumer behaviors. One easy example is what happens to money supply may impact deposit composition. So unlike a portfolio of bonds with more-or-less contractual behaviors, you have customers often under no contract on the liability side. And on the asset side, you may have loans that reprice with rates -- but when rates start to rise, borrowers could easily then switch to fixed rate loans. The bank is faced with losing the customer to another bank willing to make the fixed rate loan or do it themselves. These little behavior changes occur all over the bank's balance sheet. So all else equal, I think it is a little harder to model the bank's actual change in income from higher rates. I'm not very familiar with insurance. But bond portfolios of banks benefit from rising rates if they produce a lot of cash flows in the interim periods of principal / interest. As a result, different companies can structure investment portfolios differently based on their desire for volatility in earnings around changing rates. I assume insurance is similar
  24. Yes, of course I do. I've been trying to be very rigorous in my approach to thinking about the future, which is why I'm a fan of mauboussin. He has a similar approach to thinking. Depends on the situation. In the banks I evaluate, I use the base rate of various financial performance metrics before adjusting it based on my inside view. And I Iook back in history to see how those traits sustained or changed in history when forecasting ratios increasing or decreasing. This weekend I intend to look at the recently announced mergers in the market given interesting commentary by Levine this week. I'll use a base rate of deals closing before then adjusting the probability based on the inside view of the specific transaction. I feel the above is very basic, so apologize if I answered the wrong question. But the base is the starting point from which I adjust a forecast based on inside knowledge.
  25. Quant funds heavily rely on base rates. I think to assume they aren't used in investing is very myopic Almost all the research I've seen shows combining base rates with inside view always produces better forecasts. Knowing what values typically are seems fundamental to the mean reversion many value investments rely upon. Surprised someone would conclude that having a forecast for a company based in the reality of the industry/sector occurs by "nobody" -- why then are we focused on industry comps?
×
×
  • Create New...