dcollon Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 http://carlicahn.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adesigar Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 why didn't he have this a few months ago? you know...before the market dropped? He has being saying it for a few months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I don't know why he's coming out with this stuff. This is not how he made his money and he used to emphasize that before responding to some boring repetitive question from whatever financial journalist was asking him for his view on "the market." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MarkS Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I've actually put on some positions in high yield bonds recently. Ichan seems to base his argument on a pending series of rate hikes similar to what led to the credit crises. Hell! We can't even get one rate hike. Even if the Fed raises rates by a .25 point, I just don't see them following through with more hikes any time soon. But, hey, I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jawn619 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I don't know why he's coming out with this stuff. This is not how he made his money and he used to emphasize that before responding to some boring repetitive question from whatever financial journalist was asking him for his view on "the market." What if he actually cares about people and being right? He's already made enough money so I don't think he's short the market and going "activist" on it. He could just be a smart thoughtful guy sharing his thoughts Ray Dalio style Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I find websites that present you with a wall of text of legalese that you have to "agree to" before seeing the content highly annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 why didn't he have this a few months ago? you know...before the market dropped? He has being saying it for a few months. haha I realized that. that's why I deleted my original. :P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orthopa Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Interesting video. So the next question is what is the best way to short the high yield market Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
APG12 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I find websites that present you with a wall of text of legalese that you have to "agree to" before seeing the content highly annoying. I'm sure the website owners find it highly annoying too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I think what Carl Icahn talked about here is quite similar to the merger-mania that went bust in the 1980s. He has seen it before so he is predicting it will happen again. All serial acquirers like VRX and PAH had dropped a lot since he started talking about this in May. I am interested in those serial acquirers but I don't feel like the bottom has reached so soon. After boom-bust, there will be a relatively long stabilization period (1-2 years), so we got plenty of time here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Interesting video. So the next question is what is the best way to short the high yield market This trade may not work either. What if the fed does not increase the rate? After a while, people will forget all the fears today and start chasing high yields again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 You can short HYG or buying puts on it. However, we are already at the lows reached in 2011 on that index or when the World feared that Europe would disintegrate. Are we in such bad shape today? Just food for thoughts. If energy was to rebound then a large portion of high yield bonds would turn out ok and that concern would likely disappear. I was also reading late last night that consumer confidence in China is the highest in a year and that housing in major cities is doing well with prices up. When housing collapsed in the U.S. it was across the board and large cities and/or more desirable areas where the ones that recovered first. No doubt that there is a lot of real estate bad loans in the system in China but, is it as dire as some make it out to be? Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I must have been in the minority that was not at all impressed by the video. Half of it ruined the substance of the argument by including things like carried interest and Donald Trump. What the heck do those things have to do with the market? When we had the last crisis, the yield curve was inverted and you had no liquidity in junk bonds for various reasons. It'll probably happen again at some point but he didn't say what would cause it. Of course no one knows what will cause it, but he didn't give anything that could help identify a catalyst. I could totally understand shorting a junk bond ETF. There's not enough liquidity in that market during stressful times to give you an accurate market price. But that's a completely separate issue from saying there's danger because junk bonds are frothy, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowIQinvestor Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I must have been in the minority that was not at all impressed by the video. Half of it ruined the substance of the argument by including things like carried interest and Donald Trump. What the heck do those things have to do with the market? I'm with you! Seems like some sort of media stunt to feed his ego. When this massive downturn in the stock market happens, will Herbalife sell more shakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mvalue Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I can't imagine HYG would have a comparable composition/price level of underlying holdings compared to 2011, so I think that doesn't have a great deal of meaning. Probably better to look at credit spreads and HYG holdings' prices relative to par. You can short HYG or buying puts on it. However, we are already at the lows reached in 2011 on that index or when the World feared that Europe would disintegrate. Are we in such bad shape today? Just food for thoughts. If energy was to rebound then a large portion of high yield bonds would turn out ok and that concern would likely disappear. I was also reading late last night that consumer confidence in China is the highest in a year and that housing in major cities is doing well with prices up. When housing collapsed in the U.S. it was across the board and large cities and/or more desirable areas where the ones that recovered first. No doubt that there is a lot of real estate bad loans in the system in China but, is it as dire as some make it out to be? Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doughishere Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I want whatever Carl is taking in that main pic. Looks like he's on some good shit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jawn619 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I want whatever Carl is taking in that main pic. Looks like he's on some good shit. it's money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fowci Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I must have been in the minority that was not at all impressed by the video. Half of it ruined the substance of the argument by including things like carried interest and Donald Trump. What the heck do those things have to do with the market? When we had the last crisis, the yield curve was inverted and you had no liquidity in junk bonds for various reasons. It'll probably happen again at some point but he didn't say what would cause it. Of course no one knows what will cause it, but he didn't give anything that could help identify a catalyst. I could totally understand shorting a junk bond ETF. There's not enough liquidity in that market during stressful times to give you an accurate market price. But that's a completely separate issue from saying there's danger because junk bonds are frothy, etc. Agreed. Just seemed like a rambling old man to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I want whatever Carl is taking in that main pic. Looks like he's on some good shit. it's money ROFL. 8) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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