Buffett/Berkshire - general news

[Munger_Disciple]

3 hours ago, gfp said:

 

I don't think he planned / intended to sell all of his AAPL shares this year so you gotta stop somewhere.  When people saw the even number they figure he stopped.  We'll find out next quarter.

 

The last bit was sold at $207.64 /share average - so he did get a little bit of the AI pop action for $1.3 billion worth.

 

We don't know for sure but it's possible that Buffett may sell more AAPL shares in the future at some price if it is high enough. He generally doesn't seems to stop once he starts selling a position (although he said at the AGM that Abel will likely inherit a reduced AAPL position when he takes over). People think since KO holding is at 400 million shares, Buffett will stop at that number of AAPL shares. But my reading is that Buffett is more comfortable with KO than AAPL. Plus he never sold a single share of KO unlike AAPL. But I agree that Q3 results would be quite interesting. 

Edited August 16 by Munger_Disciple

[janusdr]

What I heard on the annual meeting is that he said 'chances are very high that Apple still is his biggest position at the end of the year'.

 

There is only 1 scenario in which he would keep the possibility open that Apple wouldn't be his biggest position, and that is the scenario in which continues to sell as much as he can.

 

So that remains my base case.

Edited August 17 by janusdr

[Munger_Disciple]

4 minutes ago, janusdr said:

What I heard on the annual meeting is that he said 'chances are very high that Apple still is his biggest position at the end of the year'.

 

There is only 1 scenario in which he would keep the possibility open that Apple wouldn't be his biggest position, and that is the scenario in which continues to sell as much as he can.

 

So that remains my base case.

 

He can sell another 200 million shares of Apple and it would still be the largest equity holding for Berkshire at roughly $45 billion. 

[gfp]

resumed selling BAC

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/70858/000095017024098772/xslF345X03/ownership.xml

[Eldad]

Do you think WB will be haunted by the Ghost of Charlie Munger, Jacob Marley style, this Christmas if AAPL continues its upward trajectory? 

[John Hjorth]

5 minutes ago, Eldad said:

Do you think WB will be haunted by the Ghost of Charlie Munger, Jacob Marley style, this Christmas if AAPL continues its upward trajectory? 

 

Let it go. Total waste of your time and mental energy.

 

Not a matter for any of us here on CoBF. Your only feasible reaction on the AAPL sale is [Berkshire] hold, sell - whole or partially, or buy more.

 

No matter your stance related to Mr. Buffetts doings on this Berkshire position, you had no influence on the decision when it was made, - what so ever. No matter what you think about it by now, it has been a homerun. 

 

In short, it's 'the privilege' of investing in a majority controlled listed conglomerate. Get used to it, or those kind of investments are not for you.

[Eldad]

2 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Let it go. Total waste of your time and mental energy.

 

Not a matter for any of us here on CoBF. Your only feasible reaction on the AAPL sale is [Berkshire] hold, sell - whole or partially, or buy more.

 

No matter your stance related to Mr. Buffetts doings on this Berkshire position, you had no influence on the decision when it was made, - what so ever. No matter what you think about it by now, it has been a homerun. 

 

In short, it's 'the privilege' of investing in a majority controlled listed conglomerate. Get used to it, or those kind of investments are not for you.

Haha you are right. It was meant to be a joke. 

[UK]

https://www.barrons.com/articles/buy-everest-group-stock-price-pick-reinsurance-cdc6637d

 

I like FFH much better as an investment, but maybe it could be a nice "add on" acquisition for BRK?

[ValueMaven]

we dont need more P&C subs ... we recently bought alleghany

[Sweet]

3 hours ago, UK said:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/buy-everest-group-stock-price-pick-reinsurance-cdc6637d

 

I like FFH much better as an investment, but maybe it could be a nice "add on" acquisition for BRK?

Interesting article, thanks

[John Hjorth]

3 hours ago, ValueMaven said:

we dont need more P&C subs ... we recently bought alleghany

 

Are there any areas of reinsurance or P/C insurance, where Everest may provide some new business or business lines to the pallette of Berkshires?

[ValueMaven]

9 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Are there any areas of reinsurance or P/C insurance, where Everest may provide some new business or business lines to the pallette of Berkshires?

 

No.  With National Indemnity (think very large complex P&C policies), GEICO (US Auto), Berkshire Hathaway Specialty Insurance (former AIG team - P&C, much smaller and faster book of biz), Alleghany (P&C and reinsurance - more internationally focused) we have it all mostly covered.  Which is why floating Chubb as an M&A target wont happen either.  

[longterminvestor]

Only place in risk bearing vertical I can think BRK not materially present is the fronting model (Trisura - publicly traded in Canada, State National which is Markel, there are some others) - which is the sexy vertical.  Do not see BRK fronting deals as a business.  BRK being the deepest pocket and courts would make BRK pay even if there was not a financial default.  Fronting kinda goes against the principals of Mr. Buffett as well - its insurance bearding.  They may some some on the books but have not seen Berkshire market fronting as a business like others.  

 

Mr. Buffett has steered away from writing Homeowners policies as well.  They do it but not at scale.  He is quoted as saying the base policy Homeowners limits are deceiving (in favor of insured, not the insurance company).  If you take all HO policy limits including all the coverage extensions with state mandatory endorsements - the risk per policy is too large to support paltry premium ergo not a profitable enterprise.  I agree by the way.  Mr. Jain has also said Cyber Liability is of no interest and thats all the rage today for growth, growth, growth.  

 

Good news for Berkshire is rise and marketability of Excess & Surplus Lines insurance brought by wholesale brokerage will bring more unique risks (agnostic to line of business) to Berkshire's table without having to spin up new subsidiaries/change in model, Berkshire gets to just sit back and have brokers serve up deal after deal and wait for Berkshire's price to hit the bid.  

[gfp]

So far the high today put a $989.75 Billion market cap on Berkshire.  Will we hit the extra digit club this week?  How many covered calls are out there getting violated?

 

[John Hjorth]

11 minutes ago, gfp said:

So far the high today put a $989.75 Billion market cap on Berkshire.  Will we hit the extra digit club this week?  How many covered calls are out there getting violated?

 

Yes, It's actually mind provoking to think about the 1 trillion USD market Cap value af Berkshire. The issue at hand and of importance to us as shareholders, is for management - at all times - to do it's very best.

[CassiusKing1]

On 8/26/2024 at 11:19 AM, gfp said:

So far the high today put a $989.75 Billion market cap on Berkshire.  Will we hit the extra digit club this week?  How many covered calls are out there getting violated?

 

And here we go again today!  Sold 1/3 of my BRK position.  Thinking about selling more.

[sleepydragon]

It’s interesting Buffett’s teacher Graham, who is regarded the GOAT of all these special situations/value investing trades, made the most money from one long term holding.
 

[73 Reds]

12 minutes ago, sleepydragon said:

It’s interesting Buffett’s teacher Graham, who is regarded the GOAT of all these special situations/value investing trades, made the most money from one long term holding.
 

Buffett has said that a few key long lasting decisions in life make all the difference.  Amen to that.

[Whensthepaintdry?]

1 hour ago, CassiusKing1 said:

Thinking about selling more.

Do you think it has gotten way too ahead of the valuation or just see better opportunities elsewhere? 

[Munger_Disciple]

34 minutes ago, Whensthepaintdry? said:

Do you think it has gotten way too ahead of the valuation or just see better opportunities elsewhere? 

 

Berkshire had a similar melt up during 2007 before the proverbial GFC s**t hit the fan. Rightly or wrongly, Berkshire is seen as a safe haven during potential troubles. Perhaps markets are telling us that we are reaching the top of the MAG 7 froth? If there is a major market correction, I can't imagine Berkshire not being part of it though. 

[Whensthepaintdry?]

I can definitely see that happening. I agree it has been running hot. It doesn’t take heroic assumptions or multiples on operating earnings to reach today’s value though. I am not the biggest user of options, but I have been feeling the urge to sell covered calls for a while now. 

[Munger_Disciple]

38 minutes ago, Whensthepaintdry? said:

I can definitely see that happening. I agree it has been running hot. It doesn’t take heroic assumptions or multiples on operating earnings to reach today’s value though. I am not the biggest user of options, but I have been feeling the urge to sell covered calls for a while now. 

 

Just be aware that Berkshire fully participated in the market downdraft in 2008-09, so it's not quite an insurance policy against corrections (pun intended ).

Edited August 27 by Munger_Disciple

[Kuhndan]

I sold out of the money calls several months ago thinking it wouldn’t hit $460…. and here we are. 

[73 Reds]

4 minutes ago, Kuhndan said:

I sold out of the money calls several months ago thinking it wouldn’t hit $460…. and here we are. 

I was always fascinated with options.  I use them in real estate quite a lot but when stocks first became optionable this became somewhat of an obsession.  The book "Options as a Strategic Investment" (Larry McMillan) was an incredible read for all the possibilities it presented.  Every now and then, a trade would arise that made no sense, almost felt like a can't lose - but often it did.  Still, at one time, I probably spent the better part of six months trying many of the different strategies.  Later, around the year 2000 I recall reading about one trade involving Cisco Systems where an ATM covered call for (I believe) less than a year sold for the same premium as the stock price.  By then a company like CSCO was not in my wheelhouse and I didn't do it.  But decades later, the idea of covered calls and short puts makes a lot of sense in the right situations.  The issue with covered calls on Berkshire is there is entirely no rhyme or reason for the way the stock trades (other than the proverbial more buyers than sellers, and visa versa).  If there was ever an extended period of time when one might have reasoned that the stock price would trade down it was after the release of the annual report earlier this year.  Yet here we are - go figure.  

[sleepydragon]

imo, for retail investors, there are only two types of options trade that gives retail investors a unique edge . Sell puts or buy calls.