Buffett/Berkshire - general news

[John Hjorth]

17 minutes ago, Eldad said:

I was just throwing it out there. 
 

I’m not trying to be mean or anything but I think it’s probably a long shot that he can deploy anywhere close to that in his remaining working life. You are going to saddle Greg with a 300B anchor on his balance sheet on day one? 

 

And it's all speculative, and just that : speculative.

 

None of us actually know what papers - and about what - are laying on Mr. Buffetts office desk and what may have his attention by now - today -, and what he might be messing around with, - or any day, for that sake.

[Eldad]

17 minutes ago, Munger_Disciple said:

 

Yes, I would rather Greg have T-Bills than Apple stock at 33X. 

Ok that’s fair.
 

What about when they cut rates and you are getting 33x on the T-Bills? 
 

The rational for BRK not paying a dividend is that they can deploy the capital better than we can. Is that still true? They can’t move the needle with the vast majority of stocks and we can. They have been hesitant lately to buy depressed markets and many of us have not, etc., etc.

 

Many of you believe Greg is an operator more than a public company capital allocator. Will he be trying to make market beating stock purchases? If not why would he need 300 billion? 
 

WB is 94. How does that factor into the value of his cash call option? 

[Munger_Disciple]

55 minutes ago, Eldad said:

Ok that’s fair.
 

What about when they cut rates and you are getting 33x on the T-Bills? 
 

The rational for BRK not paying a dividend is that they can deploy the capital better than we can. Is that still true? They can’t move the needle with the vast majority of stocks and we can. They have been hesitant lately to buy depressed markets and many of us have not, etc., etc.

 

Many of you believe Greg is an operator more than a public company capital allocator. Will he be trying to make market beating stock purchases? If not why would he need 300 billion? 
 

WB is 94. How does that factor into the value of his cash call option? 

 

I trust Buffett to manage Berkshire in the best interest of shareholders as he had done for 60 years now. I am also 100% certain that Buffett thought through how Greg would potentially manage Berkshire after he takes over. If you don't believe that, you should sell your stock & move on instead of back seat driving. 

[Eldad]

Just now, Munger_Disciple said:

 

I trust Buffett to manage Berkshire in the best interest of shareholders as he had done for 60 years now. I am also 100% certain that Buffett thought through how Greg would potentially manage Berkshire after he takes over. If you don't believe that, you should sell your stock & move on instead of back seat driving. 

I have a very significant portion of my families money in BRK shares. Sorry, I thought my questions were kind of the point of this website. 

[Eldad]

I mean let’s be straight, why would you ever say I need to sell half my Apple because tax rates are going up? How about you never sell and never pay tax like you have preached forever? Why the weird slight dishonesties all the time? 

[Jaygo]

I would consider the Apple position too big for shareholders and that is why he is selling. I would not keep 20% of my net worth in Apple so why should he keep 20% of BRK in Apple.

 

I am also fully willing to acknowledge that had i kept 20% in apple for my lifetime I would be far more wealthy than I am now and I could be making a mistake here.

 

It honestly just seems like it makes fiduciary sense to lighten up on it. 

[Eldad]

18 minutes ago, Jaygo said:

I would consider the Apple position too big for shareholders and that is why he is selling. I would not keep 20% of my net worth in Apple so why should he keep 20% of BRK in Apple.

 

I am also fully willing to acknowledge that had i kept 20% in apple for my lifetime I would be far more wealthy than I am now and I could be making a mistake here.

 

It honestly just seems like it makes fiduciary sense to lighten up on it. 

Yeah I totally get that. Why not say that if your WB? “Well tax rates are going higher blah blah blah” Need some Charlie brutal honesty following his statements. 

[Eldad]

I mean in 5 years I think it is highly likely WB is retired, they still have a cash problem, and Apple is at $350 plus. I could be wrong. 

[UK]

1 hour ago, Eldad said:

Yeah I totally get that. Why not say that if your WB? “Well tax rates are going higher blah blah blah” Need some Charlie brutal honesty following his statements. 

 

I think he communicated this way to soften the possible publicity blow of his selling for Apple and/or maybe also because he was/is not done yet. I have no issue with this, this is one of the most easily explainable reasons, very likely not the most important, but not a lie either:). I also do not think special dividend is unthinkable. Maybe it could happen at the time of transition, if not used somehow by then. Just a speculation:)

 

Edited August 30, 2024 by UK

[UK]

https://www.barrons.com/articles/berkshire-stock-trillion-buffett-birthday-e8c64986

 

Happy birthday!:)

[Charlie]

12 hours ago, Eldad said:

I mean in 5 years I think it is highly likely WB is retired, they still have a cash problem, and Apple is at $350 plus. I could be wrong. 

Statistically probably every 5-10 years there is a correction in the stock market. We are in year 4 since the last correction.

So opportunities are coming and things don´t grow to the sky.

The elephant gun is loaded for this and Berkshire is very good in investing when everything goes to hell.

It is a flaw in human nature to think that the future will look like the recent past.

It is still the boom and bust cycle and things can change very fast. 

 

[Cigarbutt]

7 hours ago, Charlie said:

Statistically probably every 5-10 years there is a correction in the stock market. We are in year 4 since the last correction.

So opportunities are coming and things don´t grow to the sky.

The elephant gun is loaded for this and Berkshire is very good in investing when everything goes to hell.

It is a flaw in human nature to think that the future will look like the recent past.

It is still the boom and bust cycle and things can change very fast. 

 

Do you mean to say that Mr. Buffett is into market timing?

[73 Reds]

14 hours ago, Eldad said:

Ok that’s fair.
 

What about when they cut rates and you are getting 33x on the T-Bills? 
 

The rational for BRK not paying a dividend is that they can deploy the capital better than we can. Is that still true? They can’t move the needle with the vast majority of stocks and we can. They have been hesitant lately to buy depressed markets and many of us have not, etc., etc.

 

Many of you believe Greg is an operator more than a public company capital allocator. Will he be trying to make market beating stock purchases? If not why would he need 300 billion? 
 

WB is 94. How does that factor into the value of his cash call option? 

T-Bills and AAPL stock both provide optionality.  Most companies have far greater problems to complain about.  We should feel lucky.

[Charlie]

9 hours ago, Cigarbutt said:

Do you mean to say that Mr. Buffett is into market timing?

He is searching the world on a basis of opportunity cost.

It is not market timing. It is about getting the best risk-adjusted return.

[longlake95]

Happy birthday Warren! 

[CassiusKing1]

The Apple position while a good investment, did start to bother me a bit due to its size.

It had become 25-30% of Berkshire's total value.  I was becoming uncomfortable with 25-30% of my company being completely out of my control.  It's not like a wholly owned sub where WEB calls the shots.  It was a vulnerability that needed to be drawn back under control, IMO.

It was/is a great investment, dial back your risk as you're getting ready to hand over control to Greg.  

[UK]

8 hours ago, Charlie said:

We are in year 4 since the last correction.

 

This is not correct, since 2022 was even more bad than a correction, but since 2018 it was more like something happens once in a two years, so 2024 would fit this patern nicely:)

 

Edited August 30, 2024 by UK

[John Hjorth]

1 hour ago, 73 Reds said:

T-Bills and AAPL stock both provide optionality.  Most companies have far greater problems to complain about.  We should feel lucky.

 

This. This is absolutely worth to keep in mind when reminded about it, and to really appreciate.

[Eldad]

9 hours ago, Charlie said:

Statistically probably every 5-10 years there is a correction in the stock market. We are in year 4 since the last correction.

So opportunities are coming and things don´t grow to the sky.

The elephant gun is loaded for this and Berkshire is very good in investing when everything goes to hell.

It is a flaw in human nature to think that the future will look like the recent past.

It is still the boom and bust cycle and things can change very fast. 

 

The elephant gun was already loaded. He is doomsday prepping for the elephant apocalypse at this point. 

[John Hjorth]

On 8/28/2024 at 7:10 PM, adventurer said:

Anyone know whether there will be an interview with WB on his birthday with Becky Quick from CNBC?

 

Thanks, @adventurer ,

 

Your post actually made me turn on CNBC in the morning. No luck so far, - it's around 4:30 PM local time here now, and I'm switching back to Bloomberg TV, as the usual channel, when I'm at my usual spot during the day.

 

I checked Becky Quick's account on X also, no news about something like that upcoming there either.

 

Maybe later today ...

Edited August 30, 2024 by John Hjorth

[73 Reds]

29 minutes ago, Eldad said:

The elephant gun was already loaded. He is doomsday prepping for the elephant apocalypse at this point. 

As a Berkshire investor, is there a more appealing prospect?

[Eldad]

Just now, 73 Reds said:

As a Berkshire investor, is there a more appealing prospect?

Would be great. Just not sure A. It will happen and B. He will pull the trigger if it does. 
 

At the very least he will buy some BRK but he already had plenty of cash for that. 

[73 Reds]

3 minutes ago, Eldad said:

Would be great. Just not sure A. It will happen and B. He will pull the trigger if it does. 
 

At the very least he will buy some BRK but he already had plenty of cash for that. 

Then why own the stock?  Its a nice collection of businesses but brainpower optionality is what we're all here for.

[Eldad]

5 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

Then why own the stock?  Its a nice collection of businesses but brainpower optionality is what we're all here for.

I love the stock. I love the collection of businesses. I love the values (when followed). He is handicapping himself and all of us in my opinion buy holding so much cash for this long and then he goes and makes the cash pile outrageous. He has not meaningfully bought a panic since the GFC that I can remember. He basically said himself 5 or 6 years ago it would be criminal to have that cash on the BS for this long. Follow your own rules dude or hand the keys over to Greg. 

[Eldad]

10 minutes ago, Eldad said:

I love the stock. I love the collection of businesses. I love the values (when followed). He is handicapping himself and all of us in my opinion buy holding so much cash for this long and then he goes and makes the cash pile outrageous. He has not meaningfully bought a panic since the GFC that I can remember. He basically said himself 5 or 6 years ago it would be criminal to have that cash on the BS for this long. Follow your own rules dude or hand the keys over to Greg. 

Adapt, you know? It’s not the 1970s. No one is going to call and offer you a 200 Billion business over the phone.
 

Implement a keep your capital scheme where the business managers can get a bigger bonus if they keep and deploy their own capital at a set ROTC. Set all the great Berkshire employees loose on the cash pile. Have Ted, Todd, and Greg oversee it with the Berkshire values as the framework.