meiroy

1. "“and because I’m always on margin, I lost 80 percent of that half in the collapse.” That's why he lost money, nothing to do with going out at the top. Everything to do with getting margin calls. 2. " As the market imploded, he didn’t hide in a corner, nursing his wounds. He gathered all of the cash he could muster—not least, by selling his yacht—and invested it in cheap stocks that have since surged, enriching him and a loyal minority of shareholders who stuck by him." This. He kept his conviction and made more money.

1. These niche forums tend to depend on a founding member who puts their time and energy into it, once they stop or reduce their involvement there's a downward spiral. Happens every time. 2. Twitter. People have realized they can ""monetize"" their skills better through twitter.

LOL OT: I really hope they invent something else before I have to go for colonoscopy, since I am so f&(*ing not doing it. I'd rather die. ;) http://www.givenimaging.com/en-us/Innovative-Solutions/Capsule-Endoscopy/pillcam-colon/Pages/default.aspx Ask your Dr. about it as an option, if they say it is not an option ask exactly why that is and then ask about the difference in costs...

Thanks for the link Liberty, WBW seems like quite an interesting source.

Could someone recommend a data based book which focuses about the possible reasons for the rise of Nazi Germany? Thanks.

When the market really crashes reflexivity becomes far more dominant with any problems in the capital structure becoming much more obvious. I would not expect FFH or any such large company to have strong enough buyer of last resort with the interest to keep it significantly over the general market.

I got YAAA (You Are An Asshole)

If Buffett doesn't qualify as genius to you, who does in the field of business/finance? Can we go with dead people? Alexander Hamilton and John Maynard Keynes as a start... You seem to know a thing or two about John C. Malone, would you nominate him as a genius?

There is no doubt the FED had and has various influences on the market and is even a "market maker" at times, as do other central banks around the world (FIAT currencies galore). What I find completely silly in their analysis is that they categorize a specific form of value investing as if that's all there is to value investing. At the end of the day this article is just some marketing shtick.

Thank you for the link. "Geek note: Value investors don’t simply start buying when a stock drops below fair value. They wait for stocks to fall materially below fair value before buying. In the prior example, value investors might estimate fair value to be $40 but only start buying at $35. This gap between fair value and their buy trigger defines their “margin of safety”. To be more precise, value investors replicate the profile of an out-of-the-money -- rather than an at-the-money -- put option seller. By stepping in when prices are falling, value investors provide a form of insurance to the market. Like all insurance, this activity should produce positive returns on average for the underwriter. Careful value investors have certainly prospered over the long run. The puzzle is why providing insurance through value investing has not been rewarded over the past five years." What a bunch of bollocks. "Value investors are trigger happy falling knives catching insurance agents who have not been paid their bonuses for the past five years."

http://www.wired.com/2015/02/silicon-valley-home-schooling Some of the comments are quite interesting. I've been looking for data that quantifies the social impact on either going to school or homeschooling but it's difficult to find something which is not backed by some sort of an agenda.

Version 2: "To me this would seem to indicate that we are very likely to see sovereign defaults sooner then later."

1. If we are looking for drunk birds stumbling out of a coal mine than other commodities such as iron ore were tweeting long before oil. Harder to manipulate such commodities compared to oil. 2. Indeed some of the oil drop is due to decreasing demand in China. 3. Commodities will continue to crash of course due to that and decrease in oversupply in China. 4. Adjustment in oversupply is inflationary, not deflationary, in the longer run. 5. It has far greater benefit to the USA with a strong currency than to a country with weak currency. 6. Weak currency is not a magical solution to everything and for sure not a solution for Japan or China. 7. China importing mass quantities of oil is very speculative, keeping in mind the decrease in growth. 7. It's definitely all connected. 8. Obviously I can't count.

Do people actually play dominoes these days? There's a row of dominoes lined up on some sacred hill somewhere, since beginning of time just waiting for the right moment to start falling one by one? Are you guys like having picnic around that hill and as the first piece falls you then run to a higher hill just so you could look at the dominoes pieces falling down on that little hill below? Is this hill is also the home to the tree of knives？

Nonsense. A guy starts a thread with "I know this doesn’t mean anything, and is absolutely not repeatable, but…" to boast about one month return, on a supposedly value investor forum, is asking for it. Keeping in mind also the context of previous posts. Shall I now put multiple smilies at the end of my post to make everything OK? Here: ;D ;D ;D ;D Here is also a disclaimer about everything I wrote doesn't mean anything and whoever is awesome and everything: *disclaimer here*. I actually think that what this board needs is more negativity. There used to be more short-sellers here. Get them back. And ScottHall you are the last to give lectures considering all the sh*t you talk about this board on twitter. Smilies here and one more disclaimer. Just another day making friends...:D

That's completely and utterly wrong. It's exactly the opposite. It is the US who started first to adjust and is doing better now while Europe hasn't even began to do what they should be doing. They CANNOT adjust under current system, that's the main issue. Especially as the surplus country Germany who should take upon itself higher unemployment and higher household consumption is not willing to do so something which is obviously very difficult politically to do. So they'll have years of high unemployment or maybe even some extreme political parties will rise to break it. The USA as a deficit country will get out of it faster anyhow compared to other surplus countries. But regardless, it's really the complete opposite. This European EQ or whatever is not going to help them.

For how long would the US be willing to be the sucker who gets punched for all this volatility before it joins in to devalue the USD or just pressures other countries to stop one way or another? It is Germany which should adjust internally to rescue the Euro zone so why should the US absorb it when Germany is not willing to adjust?

My macro call for the year: 1. Interest rates will rise by the end of the year. 2. Oil prices will rise by the end of the year (my random number is 60 to 70). Once everyone realizes just how well the US economy is doing compared to the current gloom and doom, it is just going to shoot up with all the funds fearing to miss again like last year. Hence this is possibly the last or one of the last (cough) opportunities to get on the financials bandwagon, because once it gets going it ain't gonna stop (until it does). * I manage my own money and can state any senseless statement that I want. Do not trade on it.

Your goal could also be matching (or even only slightly underperforming) the overall markets with less risk. (Of course, the counterargument would be that you could do that too, with different index funds rather than simple broad-market index funds.) Yes, you're right, one can also have the goal of just keeping up with inflation or hedging against something else. This is not what I was talking about.

Tactfully, I 100% disagree with that and will randomly show a couple of examples. There are countless individuals and funds that started investing in 2009 and show great results both because of the timing and the miss-pricing of megacaps which easily allowed Value Investors to outdo the market without too much work. If you are an investor who within 5 years: 1. Invested in small or micro caps, which you have found by yourself and analyzed by yourself. 2. Invested in different industries and markets. 3. Resulting in returns which are significantly higher than relevant indexes. Than you may consider yourself a good investor. I know several people like that, running concentrated portfolios, and it is obvious they are the real thing. Of course this is not the only way to be a good investor. David Tepper is obviously fantastic investor and he's not exactly into small caps. I know some guy who got rich by investing in carton boxes. Point is 3-5 years by itself is somewhat meaningless as you can easily ride some macro cycle that can make you look like a genius. In the long run, one can and SHOULD set a goal of beating the market, otherwise why bother? Just go passive and buy an index. And it shouldn't be hard if you're looking at the S&P 500. If you can't do that than don't invest. You cant beat some sort of an average of the most looked at stocks on the planet? You're not a good investor. Easy. I know quite a few people who are lousy investors in the stock markets but are fantastic business man who made their fortune selling stuff, so it's all good. Oh, and unfortunately, I don't think I'm a good investor.

I wrote: "The crash in commodities and oil is due to oversupply and NOT a drop in real demand. These lower costs will boost demand and growth in the US." Now that oil is much cheaper, do you think people will use more, the same, or less? If the economy grows due to lower oil and commodities costs (and other external factors), would aggregate demand increase or decrease?

The US will not go into real deflation. The crash in commodities and oil is due to oversupply and NOT a drop in real demand. These lower costs will boost demand and growth in the US. That's it. Add Europe and China numbers to it and the outcome is the same. If you live in the USA this year consider yourself a lucky bastard. Carry on.

Would be happy to hear people's opinion about Homeschooling (for and against). Having no personal experience, it seems that all that I know or think I know about it is biased, so would be great to learn from people with hands on experience.

Pardon, which value do you need exactly off the spindices page? The morningstar page indeed does not work, is it possible they moved it somewhere else?

[–]AvenueEvergreen 1226 points 6 hours ago Previously, you've stated that you estimate a 50% probability of success with the attempted landing on the automated spaceport drone ship tomorrow. Can you discuss the factors that were considered to make that estimation? In addition, can you talk more about the grid fins that will be flying tomorrow? How do they compare to maneuvering with cold-gas thrusters? permalink [–]ElonMuskOfficial 2571 points 5 hours ago I pretty much made that up. I have no idea :) The grid fins are super important for landing with precision. The aerodynamic forces are way too strong for the nitrogen thrusters. In particular, achieving pitch trim is hopeless. Our atmosphere is like molasses at Mach 4! :D