meiroy

1. Syria is clearly a war zone. This is the result. In every war civilians die, however, if one would look at the statistics they would see very low comparative percentage of civilian casualties by the coalition. 2. The purpose of a terror act is to instill terror in civilian population (which is not involved in a war). 3. We care more about people who resemble us. Who look like us. Who agree with us. That's the way we are, no need to act surprised every time this happens. So, anyway, it really looks like Trump is going to win. This surely would increase volatility in a volatile world. I've been happy to trade on volatility + value for a long time now but starting to think Gold these days. Seriously this Trump stuff is scary, doesn't matter if he wins or not.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/brexit-petition-for-second-eu-referendum-so-popular-the-government-sites-crashing-a7099996.html http://www.itv.com/news/westcountry/update/2016-06-24/cornwall-pleas-for-reassurance-it-will-not-be-worse-off-following-brexit-vote/ "Prior to the vote the Council said they were told by the Leave campaign that funding would still be available. They also said they had been told Cornwall "would not be worse off" in terms of investment they received. Now that we know the UK will be leaving the EU we will be taking urgent steps to ensure that the UK Government protects Cornwall’s position in any negotiations. We will be insisting that Cornwall receives investment equal to that provided by the EU programme which has averaged £60M per year over the last ten years. – JOHN POLLARD, THE LEADER OF CORNWALL COUNCIL" They voted Leave. ahah.

"@Nigel_Farage tells @susannareid100 it was a 'mistake' for Leave to claim there'd be £350M a week for NHS" That is their "£350M a week for NHS" promise was a blatant lie. I think the odds that this is not going to go through just went up a bit. (self bias noted) Farage notes at the end: "maybe even re-engaging with the commonwealth". Is that the end-game?

none "needed" but he can call for one.

Well, he could do nothing and immediately resign calling for new elections which would represent again the referendum. Only the new PM would be technically able to start the process, assuming he is on the EXIT side.

" Cameron will not be legally obliged to invoke the Lisbon treaty to start an EU exit" Would be extremely interesting to hear what he has to say at 10am UK time. Lets see how big his balls are.

He doesn't add anything new on what he has been saying for quite awhile now; it's sad to see him grow old like that :(

Haven't used it in a long time so just took a quick look but it seems what was quoted on the first post doesn't work anymore, need to point directly to the id within that class, then it's OK. There's probably an easier way to do it.

Creativity had some but can't be sure if that's what you're looking for.

People, as in "we the people" are not rational to begin with and even less so when it comes to religion and politics. Having said that, there are issues that bubble under the surface, ignored or refused to be dealt with by the establishment. Once it gets to a boiling point for whichever reason extremists like Trump use it for a ride. The powers that be have to recognize the various issues involved and take control of the discussion. The pendulum swings...

"Reflexivity is a bitch" - not Soros.

ahah. I routinely get free subscription offers. Checked their site once and just couldn't get myself to look at it again, it's such a horrible design. Reuters is one of the best sources of news and information out there, many times better than any paid subscriptions. It has great twitters and RSS feeds, all free. Most importantly, it is quite objective, just delivering the news compared to WSJ, Bloomberg etc. that frequently have some sort of an agenda.

That everything I say is false.

Yup! The 10% decrease in WSBASE over the last three weeks, culminated with a 6% drop in the week ended last Wednesday. That is not unprecedented, but the Saint Louis Fed series only records three other declines of similar magnitude over many decades. All three of those huge WSBASE declines were closely associated with corrections in the market in 2010, 2011 and 2014. We more than hedged our market exposure early last week with February SPY puts. Our portfolio value actually increased last week. Nice. I didn't hedge, just went to 60% cash and removed all leverage so it still went down. Might go back in this week, though just as a short term trade.

It has of course started to crash since the rise in interest rates was announced. Back to Oct 2013 levels.

A value investor is probably someone who is at least aware of the concept of risk and reward based on probabilities and downside protection. As such, considering the probability of a car accident which is non-negligible and possible outcomes, I'd say the main criteria would be safety and so one should go for a car which has the best safety rankings.

Huh? The cleric was of a small minority in the country, backed by a country (Iran) that is already in proxy war with Saudi for awhile now. There's nothing new here, from both sides. "The House of Saud", as you call it, is extremely rich and powerful; they for sure will not be replaced from within nor would they be shot down from the outside. They have the full support of other nearby countries which share the same interest (resisting Iran's proxy wars) and of course local religious leaders with a very specific religious view of the world. And what war will be over exactly? Please. Egypt and Iran will also suddenly become happy friends? Iran will stop supporting proxy war in Yemen and various other locations? The centuries old war between Sunni and Shia will continue, in one form or another. And considering global economy's path, it might only get worse. This was not 0.02 cents on where oil will be a year from now, just on the content which is some sort of a twisted confirmation bias to support a thesis.

Cash optionality

I can't tell if you're being sarcastic and funny or if you just slept through August/September. I'm serious, that's how WSBASE looks to me.

Is it me, or is there indeed now a slight upward trend together with reduced volatility starting in May

Trump is starting to grow on me. The world will probably end if he becomes POTUS but dang he's good at this...

Why do you think it has been easier for you to make money trading than value investing? Sorry, I'm not sure I understand the question...

Cardboard, What about the demand side of things?

Yes, but almost all of it is due to options trading and macro nonsense which should be discounted for a certain future portfolio annihilation if I continue doing this... therefore the number is meaningless. Bravo to whomever managed to pass Cardboard's hurdle just by investing in plain vanilla.

Cardboard, Also Druckenmiller, the greatest [macro] investor that has ever lived went into the likes of HAl and FCX. Then again he invested big into WFC, C, JPM,...