meiroy

There's this guy, Joe, since age 10 he has been praying to his god to win the big lottery ticket every day, year after year until now he is in his 80s. One day an angel goes to god and asks him "Oh god, look at poor Joe, he has been praying each and every day for 70 years now, won't you let him win?" Then god replies "I'd love to, it justs that he never buys a ticket...". When you look at your portfolio, do you estimate that your holdings have a good probability to double within 3 years? If not, it's unlikely you will reach 25%.

(any toddler book which you have read at least 50 times would fit on this list:) 1. [amazonsearch]The tiger who came to tea[/amazonsearch] 2. [amazonsearch]Good night Gorilla[/amazonsearch] 3. [amazonsearch]Five little monkeys[/amazonsearch]... 4. [amazonsearch]I love you stinky face[/amazonsearch] 5. [amazonsearch]Just another ordinary day[/amazonsearch] 6. [amazonsearch]There was an old lady who swallowed a fly[/amazonsearch] . . .

I learned a lot from the book about the Cable industry's history in the USA; it's almost like a reference book of 1. which company did what 2. when 3. how many subscribers 4. cost etc. Less so about Malone, it would be great to read something where the focus is on the man himself.

Are you referring to the fact that the loss could be unlimited? That upside is limited to 100% through traditional shorting. If it goes to 0, you double your money. Unless you use options / CDS. But those are time-constrained and may be priced at a premium if what's obvious to you is obvious to other people. Considering you are not using your own money to short the possible upside is far greater than 100%, perhaps it can be compared to the initial margin used? In addition, you can use the funds from the short to reinvest in a long which means an infinite upside, with other people's money ;)

Thanks very interesting, could you elaborate a bit?

The article is quite different than what might be understood from the title of this thread... :) "'Humans will harvest roughly 17% of what the biosphere grows this year.' Smil tries to figure out what portion of the biosphere's primary productivity — the amount of plant life generated each year by photosynthesis — is consumed by humans. He estimates that we will harvest roughly 17 percent of what the biosphere grows this year — mostly plants. (He admits it could be as little as 15 percent or as much as 25 percent."

so far so good. It's quite fast and reliable, much better than feedly that's for sure. Has anyone found better alternatives?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-28/heart-surgery-in-india-for-1-583-costs-106-385-in-u-s-.html "Shetty is not a public health official motivated by charity. He’s a heart surgeon turned businessman who has started a chain of 21 medical centers around India. By trimming costs with such measures as buying cheaper scrubs and spurning air-conditioning, he has cut the price of artery-clearing coronary bypass surgery to 95,000 rupees ($1,583), half of what it was 20 years ago, and wants to get the price down to $800 within a decade. The same procedure costs $106,385 at Ohio’s Cleveland Clinic, according to data from the U.S. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services."

"Humans consume 17% of all life on earth every year..." I make it a point to eat 17% of all the neighbors in my building, every year. Also their dogs. And cats. Squirrels. Ants. Flies. Gerbils...

Really enjoyed the book, it is well written -- albeit a bit stretched towards the end -- at times it feels like watching a TV series. I completely forgot about excite and all those search engines back then, it was real fun reading about that again. I'm definitely biased as I do view google as one of the most amazing companies of the modern age. Unless regulation will be too much in their way, which is quite possible, this is only the beginning. All they have done so far, in a certain sense, is just a means to an end. AI that would be at least as competent as the human brain, nothing less. They might indeed achieve more, with their fantastic structure and unparalleled computing power, if anyone can do it they can. The book shows nicely how a lot of Google's innovation did not originate from the two owners but from employees or companies which they have acquired; this healthy structure would pretty much guarantee a continuous chain of market disrupting innovations. The author goes over the main products and explains how they were achieved keeping in context the general "Google way" and operation. At times he actually elaborates with very specific details. He does handle the company with a feather touch, hardly criticizing, and when he does it's very lightly. People like Larry Page and Elon Musk will shape the world to come, hopefully for the better * Definitely worth a read. * I for one welcome our new robot overlords

reader.aol.com is quite good

Happy Birthday!

http://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-takes-rating-actions-on-nine-Hong-Kong-banks--PR_275029 "Hong Kong, June 24, 2013 -- Moody's Investors Service has changed the outlooks for the bank financial strength ratings (BFSRs)/Baseline Credit Assessments (BCAs) of eight Hong Kong banks to negative from stable, and one bank's BFSR outlook to stable from positive"

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-20/five-banks-must-raise-21-2-billion-in-fresh-capital-boe-says.html "Five U.K. banks must submit plans to raise another 13.7 billion pounds ($21.2 billion) of additional capital by the end of 2013 to withstand possible losses on loans, fines and risk models, the Bank of England said. The central bank found a capital shortfall of 27.1 billion pounds when it previously assessed the strength of lenders’ balance sheets and banks have already submitted plans to raise 12.5 billion of that amount. Barclays Plc (BARC), the U.K.’s second-largest bank by assets, must raise an additional 3 billion pounds in fresh capital, Lloyds Banking Group Plc (LLOY), and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc (RBS) must boost capital by 8.6 billion pounds and 13.6 billion pounds, the U.K. central bank said in an e-mailed statement today."

Not to mention all the marketing glory he's getting...

http://fitchratings.nyws.com/FileLib/PDFs/2745-3_chinese_banks_charlene_chu_fra_10.06.2013.pdf

Lovely :)

Congrats! Very impressive how you just decided to start a fund and kept with it all these years.

Tyrion Lannister?

80% or less of total market cap to GDP. Ask yourself what the total US Market Cap to GDP is presently. It does not change my behavior, but my ability to find undervalued opportunities, as they are fewer and harder to find. Cheers! Why? Listed stocks on NYSE only have revenue from the US? You are saying that Apple's marketcap or Goldman Sachs' or what have you should only be connected to a local GDP even though a part of their revenue is related to other markets' GDP? Should we also ignore those trillions in investments coming in from non US countries? There is only ONE market and it is the global market with lots of small markets inside. This is why messing with big macro economic calls is so hard, there are always much more variables in the equation than it seems. Even if you are right timing can kill. That's why Value Investing works. If the market really crashes, sell at a tax loss and buy those 5 cents on the dollar. Rinse and repeat. This is the same argument we heard in 1999 and 2007. What we all found out is that doing the above provides far less return on investment than simply being patient and waiting for a fat pitch. Incidentally, if you are including the global market, you should be even more concerned, as I feel that the U.S. economy is actually in far better shape than the global economy...I've said that for the last two years. Every time investors have bought assets with a low risk premium, based on the low interest rate environment, they've been burned considerably. Just because Buffett is buying stocks, doesn't mean that a significant correction isn't around the corner. Remember, he was bullish on stocks back in October 2008, yet the bottom did not hit until early 2009 after a 25%+ drop. Just like Prem being bearish since early 2010 hasn't been right either. No one ever gets the timing right...but the risk premium should always be adequate...otherwise you could end up breaking "Rule #1"! Cheers! Sorry, but I don't see much consistency in your arguments so not clear how to reply to that. You have started this thread due to worrying and concern about a general market/economic situation. The "wait for a fat pitch" and only buy cheap individual stocks compared to their individual IV is a basic investing method which one would apply regardless of the market situation. Of course the cheapness has to be compared to the estimated IV and not because other stocks are much more expensive. You do agree that timing the market in the long run is impossible, so why worry about it. Just don't time. And if it drops again 25% as you say, you can rinse and repeat again. Even the dip last year was used for that. Anyhow, I'll stop here and will just agree to disagree and would just repeat my recommendation to kick out the TV from your life. One of the best things I did in the past few years. You could always buy DVDs of movies and series, it actually saves a ton of money considering the higher productivity and the peace of mind. You are obviously very talented and intelligent, no doubt more than I, yet we all should be proactive about defending our decisions from emotional biases and kicking the dumb tube is one of the best things to do.

Translation? Google's Translate: The position of about 4.3% was sold and those funds no longer hold any equity stake in the company. Funds Pabrai Investment Fund 3 and Pabrai Investment Fund IV, sold their positions in Sonae Capital, the company said in a statement to the CMVM. "Since 31 October 2012, the Fund Pabrai Investment Fund IV (Fund IV PIF), incorporated in the U.S. state of Delaware, sold on the stock exchange 5,194,890 shares representing approximately 2.07% of the share capital of Sonae Capital ( ...) does not hold any shares of the date Sonae Capital, "said the document. Moreover, "Since November 30, 2012, the Fund Pabrai Investment Fund 3 Fund (PIF 3), consisting in the British Virgin Islands, sold on the stock exchange 5,624,000 shares representing 2.25% of capital of Sonae Capital, not holding the date any action of Sonae Capital. " The statement said also that Mohnish Pabrai, natural person resident in the U.S. state of California, and Harina Kapoor, individual and resident of the State of California, are the only members of Dalal Street, the entity responsible for making all investment decisions Funds II PIF, PIF and PIF 3 IV, and shall also exercise all rights attached to the securities in which these funds invest, including the exercise of voting rights. "In view of the above, these entities do not hold a qualifying holding of share capital and voting rights of Sonae Capital," the document concludes.

80% or less of total market cap to GDP. Ask yourself what the total US Market Cap to GDP is presently. It does not change my behavior, but my ability to find undervalued opportunities, as they are fewer and harder to find. Cheers! Why? Listed stocks on NYSE only have revenue from the US? You are saying that Apple's marketcap or Goldman Sachs' or what have you should only be connected to a local GDP even though a part of their revenue is related to other markets' GDP? Should we also ignore those trillions in investments coming in from non US countries? There is only ONE market and it is the global market with lots of small markets inside. This is why messing with big macro economic calls is so hard, there are always much more variables in the equation than it seems. Even if you are right timing can kill. That's why Value Investing works. If the market really crashes, sell at a tax loss and buy those 5 cents on the dollar. Rinse and repeat.

I think that if you stopped watching TV every day your yearly returns would rise by at least 50%.

The unemployment numbers from Spain are completely unsustainable... Hunger is growing in Greece as well. People are hungry and we know what that means. Either it explodes or austerity is stopped. Imagine how the markets will react if tomorrow it is officially announced austerity failed and they are changing a direction... Hotels are still a little pricey though (Idon't think the depression in US had hotels at such lofty prices). I checked Madrid about a week ago and it is comparable to other major European cities http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/04/spain-is-beyond-doomed-the-2-scariest-unemployment-charts-ever/275324/ "Five years after its housing boom turned to bust, Spanish unemployment hit a record high of 27.2 percent in the first quarter of 2013. It's almost too horrible to comprehend, but 19.5 percent of the total workforce has not had a job in the past six months; 15.3 percent have not in the past year; and 9.2 percent have not in the past two years. You can see this 1930s-style catastrophe in the chart below from the National Statistics Institute." Well, real life case in Granada, which officially is close to a 40% unemployment rate. Thanks for adding some color. How do you explain this? The actual unemployment rate is far lower than 40%, i.e. unreported earnings? I think that's quite common in tourist destinations. What about cities in Spain which are not tourist attractions and depend on non tourist industries?

The unemployment numbers from Spain are completely unsustainable... Hunger is growing in Greece as well. People are hungry and we know what that means. Either it explodes or austerity is stopped. Imagine how the markets will react if tomorrow it is officially announced austerity failed and they are changing a direction... Hotels are still a little pricey though (Idon't think the depression in US had hotels at such lofty prices). I checked Madrid about a week ago and it is comparable to other major European cities http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/04/spain-is-beyond-doomed-the-2-scariest-unemployment-charts-ever/275324/ "Five years after its housing boom turned to bust, Spanish unemployment hit a record high of 27.2 percent in the first quarter of 2013. It's almost too horrible to comprehend, but 19.5 percent of the total workforce has not had a job in the past six months; 15.3 percent have not in the past year; and 9.2 percent have not in the past two years. You can see this 1930s-style catastrophe in the chart below from the National Statistics Institute."